MAFIA 49 -Avengers "Re-release"- GAME THREAD [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

@Bunny about the numbers thing what you said (1/5000 v 1/3000) was kind of the point I was making. Nominating 4 scum at this early stage is pretty futile.

However I guess if one person appeared in say more than half the lists it might be significant.

[xorxes]

I can always join a bozo lynch.

##vote Bozo

Why is that, shouldn't you only want to lynch me when I am scum?

I always THINK you are scum and you always think I am scum. Obviously, we are frequently wrong, specially on D1. I know you are wrong this time, am I wrong? I don't feel you engaged as in M47.

I don't think this has been true in the last few games, the mutual scumreading thing.

[damo666]

@Bunny What's your E number

[xorxes]

Here are my reads. I have 5 scumleans... @bozo, I would drop Chaqa before the others, so my four for your list are brainbomb, emc, Fox and Maniac.

bozotheclown
null
Overly into a bussing idea super early, no big deas like usual. Seems calm clear and articulate when defending self and the survey idea. No evil agenda, standard bozo fare.

brainbomb
scumlean
Pushy on Vaporwave. Read way too much into ND roleplaying Thanos. And yet... I don't feel like they've been swinging at as many people as usual. Sedatebrain could be scumbrain.

BunnyGo
null
Very resistant to being pushed. Combination of questioning attitude, some volatility, apparent levels of capability... could either be earnest angry town, or carefully calculated scum. I feel like it's town but don't fully trust that yet as there are little pings that set me wrong.

Chaqa
scumlean
Classically lurky. Incredibly bland. Reads seem more like a list of people Chaqa knows/likes than actually reads. I had a better feeling from Chaqa in the gladiator game on D1. "Loved" the idea of D&D reads but didn't follow through, though this... is hard to read into. Apparently had two kind of scum reads, one of the being Vapor, but didn't vote for them, voted ND instead for being annoying.

damo666
null
damo seems a lot more active than they usually are on day 1. Huh. damo is not usually this willing to give reads and make pushes. However the actual content is good and thoughtful.

dargo
townlean
I find it interesting that darg seems not to be doing much but caught on in a pretty interesting way to the shifting room dynamics around Vapor on page 27. That's a level of awareness and willingness to be incisive not too many players have shown.

e.m.c^42
scumlean
Lots of anchoring, reading Vaporwave which I think is a meme or something, but also seeming a little uncalm. Intuitive scum lean here.

EspressoPatronum
townlean
Good questioning, good analysis, very meta aware. A little reactive due to the timing of their entry but overall feels like pro-town at the very least.

foodcoats
Level 18 Paladin with hypogriff mount and +4 vorpal sword

Foxcastle
scumlean
A little less good than I expected. The approach feels vague. There is a lack of pressure and incision. Was hamming the lurkers but is close to a lurker themself. If they were serious about villifying lurkers why not get in here and attack Chaqa or Temasek further?

Jamiet99uk
townlean
Getting wild and angry, pushing hard on things. Suggests a town perspective. Going hooligan on worcej for what I think was a reaction test and looks TvT to me.

KalelChase
townlean
Weird random story posting, but that seems to be out of a desire to show their personality. Scum might be more afraid of that. Is willing to dive into their perspective and explain themselves.

Kitsune
townlean
Some people claim they are acting dumber than they are, though they seem sincere. They are taking a very strict and logical approach to things. I don't think a newbie scum could do this very effectively. It comes off very well.

Maniac
scumlean
Seems active passive. Railed on BunnyGo for something that I think a noob could easily mistake. Lots of acerbic jabs but I don't feel anything behind them, any commitment to finding scum or making it stick.

ND
null
Pretty stupid stuff.

Nephthys
townlean
Has contradicted themself on a few occasions about methodology, I can't imagine scum doing this. Is driving hard on a few things, in attack mode. I suspect Neph is sharp enough to take this approach as scum, too. Will have to watch how Neph's reads evolve because that may be the best way to catch scum!Neph but still more likely town from behaviour.

rdrivera2005
null
Has a casual and laid back vibe that I find difficult to assess. They are open to ideas and are coasting around. This could go either way.

Temasek22
townlean
I'm not sure if this is right but at least Temasek doesn't seem worried about being scumread for lurking and posting mostly irrelevancies, even if a few reads. There's almost an assuredness to this playstyle now. Seems a confidence that could come from town!Temasek.

Vaporwave
null
Made a weird statement about not getting paranoid because there are only four scum. Also claimed VT on D1 well before deadline. This does fit into how I think Vapor plays in general and could go either way... Vapor has claimed and got themselves killed in the past.

worcej
townlean
The "who would you NK" thing was weird but I don't know if even worcej could dare that far as scum. Felt like town worcej making a reaction test.

xorxes
townlean
Early on seemed scummy with a lot of leading on with questions, but gets good and analytical around page 25, offers good reasoning, is soundly thinking through things on multiple fronts and it doesn't look like it could be faked. Has heart as it were.

Yuuki
null
Non-poster.

I'm giving you townie points for this list. Your reasons are generally valid and don't seem contrived. You painted Maniac's scumlean the wrong color.

[xorxes]

My Big List
Hero-leans
brain
chaqa
damo
darg
foodcoats
Jamie
Maniac
ND
Neph
Rdrivera
Yuuki
Worcej
Xorxes
Foxcastle

Villain-Leans (in order from most lean to least. Two ‘splainin’ words)
vapor… guilty, scared
bunny… guessing, trying
kitsune… slight, erratic
emc… hopping, nervous
Kitsune… faking, trying
bozo… waiting, cautious
espresso… I am sheeping here. I have no read on him, but can’t say, “null.”
Kalelchase… trying, new

How is the heroes list ordered? It looks like it started alphabetical but Yuuki and Fox are out of order, why? And why is yuuki a hero when he had not even posted at that point?

[Jamiet99uk]

Holy shit, Xorxes, did you have to re-post the whole damn list taking up half the page, just to make a one line comment?

Don't you have a delete or backspace key?

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny What's your E number

At most 3.

[BunnyGo]

Holy shit, Xorxes, did you have to re-post the whole damn list taking up half the page, just to make a one line comment?

Don't you have a delete or backspace key?

+1

[Jamiet99uk]

My Big List

<snip>

How is the heroes list ordered? It looks like it started alphabetical but Yuuki and Fox are out of order, why? And why is yuuki a hero when he had not even posted at that point?

This is a valid question. Townleaning someone who had not posted? That's a paddling.

Also, Xorx, see how I snipped the list? It takes up less of the page. You should learn from the good example that I am setting. You would become a more courteous person, and find it easier to make friends.

[xorxes]

Xorxes Case:

Let’s start right at the very beginning…
RagingIke “Mafia is an educated guessing game of epic proportions…”
Well for most of us it is, but for scum it’s about manipulation. Manipulating lynches to get Townies lynched and to save your teammates. So how do scum manipulate people? They have a variety of ways, but lets look at a hypothetical simple example.
Town “I think person X is scum”
Scum “why do you think that”
Town “Because of reasons, 1, 2, and 3”
Scum “Yeah but what about rest of what they have said”
Town – goes to read all of person X comes back “Yes person X is scum for reasons 4, 5, and 6”
Do you all see what happens? Town starts of with a fairly weak, ‘so-and-so is scum’. When challenged people naturally defend their position and find reasons to reinforce their first thought/opinion. When encourage to scum hunt further into the original suspect they find more reasons to back up their original thought. By the end of this the fairly weak scum read becomes a convincing case and scum have got another townie lynched. If one of the scum’s buddies was on the steps of the gallows at the time, they have been saved and an innocent townie is choking for breath.
Now let’s see this is action…
Maniac ‘I think BunnyGo is lying because he said he didn’t read the first page’
Xorxes ‘foodcoats says it’s easy to miss things Maniac, what do you say to that’
Maniac ‘BunnyGo lied, was lazy, isn’t trying to solve the puzzle and called me a shit player’
Xorxes “Is everything else he has done consistent with him being scum?”
Maniac “I will be re-reading BunnyGo..”
During this encounter Xorxes was voting for the lead wagon Expresso. Could Expresso be his scum buddy and he wants to bus him and protect him at the same time?
I definitely feel xorxes was trying to manipulate me, once I call him on that we have no further exchanges.

Let’s see what else xorxes says.
First post Pg3 “I do agree that Vapor sounds scummy though. Let's [][]VOTE Vapor to start with and see what happens” No real reason for the vote, but it’s early and he thinks Vapor ‘sounds scummy’.
Pg 3 “[Maniac’s] reason for voting Vapor is correct” so why didn’t xorxes give that reason for also voting Vapor?
Pg 13 to Vapor “What is your assessment of Maniac?” Another invitation to go and find dirt on a Handsome Townie.
Pg 28 to Maniac “I was actually scumreading you for your vote because I thought it was lazy” – this after he voted Vapor for ‘sounding scummy’.

I’ve selected a few quotes above, but apart from that xorxes doesn’t really say much despite being one of the top posters by post number. He gives favourable comments about people with obviously sucking up to them. ‘I don’t think Brainbomb is bussing’; ‘ND takes his roleplaying seriously’; ‘Lots of townie points to worcej’; ‘I don't believe emc really thinks he is a bad player.’; ‘Good plan.’ [to vaporwave]; ‘we killed foodcoats – he had good reads from the start’; ‘emc always votes in the last half hour of the day, whatever his alignment, which is extremely annoying’; ‘The odd thing would have been if brainbomb had stayed on Vapor for more than a couple of hours.’; ‘So I'm thinking Kalel is probably town despite some scummy’; ‘Good point from foodcoats.’; ‘bozo doesn't let one word of mine go unchallenged, whether I'm town or scum, it's extremely annoying.’; ‘Good. Townie points to you, not because I agree with all your reads, but because it shows solid townie effort went into them.’ [To Kitsune];

That’s nine people xorxes has complimented. Is this further evidence of manipulation?

Xorxes is voting for Espresso because he doesn’t like he reads. But apart from that he barely mentions or interacts with Espresso. Are they scum buddies and xorxes is subtly trying to save him by misdirecting me and bussing espresso but leaving his options open?

I’d suggest xorxes is a good lynch. If he is manipulating me and others, that is a clear indication he is scum, but also it gives us so much information. Does it clear BunnyGo? Does it implicate Espresso? Am I given townie points? I’d suggest the answer to all of those is yes, and therefore I’m going to ##vote xorxes.

I rest my case.

So your case on me is that I'm bussing Espresso, I called you out on voting BG for a bs reason, and I did all that in order to manipulate your fragile mind? Is that the gist of it?

[xorxes]

Also, Xorx, see how I snipped the list? It takes up less of the page. You should learn from the good example that I am setting. You would become a more courteous person, and find it easier to make friends.

Gotcha.

[damo666]

@Bunny What's your E number

At most 3.

Impressed.

I was taught linear algebra by a Dr Erdos at KCL. I assume he was a relation. Does that count?

[BunnyGo]

@Xorxes

I think his case is: assuming you are scum, you see him point a finger at someone. Then you say, "is that all? anything else?" and he goes and convinces himself that this person is scum.

He's suggesting it's your fault that he's accusing some townies of being scum, but doing it in a way that it makes it seem like he's bussing them.

It's sort of convoluted, but has an internal logic to it.

[damo666]

Also, Xorx, see how I snipped the list? It takes up less of the page. You should learn from the good example that I am setting. You would become a more courteous person, and find it easier to make friends.

Gotcha.

And there was I thinking you were taking the piss with post #810

[BunnyGo]

@Bunny What's your E number

At most 3.

Impressed.

I was taught linear algebra by a Dr Erdos at KCL. I assume he was a relation. Does that count?

No idea, it was easy when I worked with people who had been at Bell Labs (Erdos spent a lot of time there, so everyone at Bell had a number of at most 2)

[EspressoPatronum]

[Snipped recap of mine and bozo's openers]

Essentially this left me with one big question

Why were you at the front of Espresso's mind?

The most logical answer is that he had seen your name recently. Its possible this was in a non-anon game or something but most likely that he read his PM where the rest of his scumteam was listed.

Huh, good catch - you might actually be right about the front of mind thing, but for different reasons. I just finished a mini mafia game (m1008) with bozo and I spent a lot of time trying to convince him I wasn't scum. Bozo and Ike were swing votes, so their names came up a lot.

xorxes was another with whom I spent a lot of time interacting in m1008, but that was because we were scumbuddies trying to pretend we weren't.

[damo666]

##vote darg

[xorxes]

Townie points for this reads list as well.

[EspressoPatronum]

Espresso's wagon feels pure and it worries me. Could he be actual scum? .

Espresso, the reason why I'm scumleaning you this game is quite simple. I think I expected more understanding from you regarding your analysis of my alignment, you came right into the game like a bull and didn't pause to ponder. You are an intellectual when in town mode, that's what I've picked up from last game.

This time, there's an individualistic agenda, I find you similar to xorxes from last game, where I was trying to get him to talk to me, but he always ran away.

That's interesting, because I always get immediate town vibes from your posts, as they remind me of my own style. Your style seemed way different from the outset, so it sent of alarm bells. Your scumread of me was another red flag.

I'm here now for the next 30 mins or so + I'll be back again around 30mins-1hr before EOD, so feel free to engage with me now + I'll try to get to it before EOD.

My question for you is this: would you say your play was different this game compared to M1007 and M47? As an objective observer, would you find any difference AI?

[EspressoPatronum]

scum survey:
bozo: Vapor, emc, rdrivera, Nephthys
BunnyGo: emc, Kalel, bozo, brainbomb
Nephthys: Espresso, Jamie, foodcoats, bozo
Vapor: darg, Espresso, Temasek, ?
Espresso: Foxcastle, emc, Kalel, xorxes
damo: Chaqa, darg, emc, Kalel
foodcoats: brainbomb, emc, Foxcastle, Maniac
darg: Vapor, BunnyG, Kitsune, emc
Maniac: xorxes, Espresso, Kalel, ?
Kitsune: bozo, Temasek, ?, ?

@bozo, I edited my entry.