Mini Mafia 1008 - Triple Agent

[EspressoPatronum]

If onw of me and BB is scum, BB will always report my confession as scum

You and the rest of the town know that two a 2-scum team is in yuuki/damo or EP/xorxes.

If you confess to bb and he says you're town, I think we can use xorxes' chart to remove you and bb from the other possibilities. Doing so will result in almost a 100% town win, as we can avoid the 50/50 shot in yuuki/damo or me/xorxes because we can find the third scum.

If you confess to bb and he says you're mafia, we now have two 50/50s. One between yuuki/damo and me/xorxes and another between you and bb. This clears bozo and means that whatever information he gives us with photos is credible. Having two 50/50s increases the chances that bozo gets useful information from the pictures and can help us validate one of the 50/50s.

The other bonus here is that we likely won't have to rely on rdr. He is a wild card until his hidden agenda, and he is this a factor of uncertainty that we should not rely on.

If he

The part about brainbomb saying Ike is town is not accurate. It would not tell us anything about brainbomb and still leave open the possibility that they are scum together.

Bb/Ike can't be scum together because we can be 100% certain that 2 confirmed scum are in yuuki/damo + EP/xorxes. The BB/Ike possibilities are 2 town or 1 town 1 scum.

[xorxes]

@RagingIke if you are town then confess to me, Bozo or yuuki. If you confess to anyone else I will assume you are Mafia.

Is that the mafia team?

[EspressoPatronum]

Interesting that he is accepting bozo as town

You clearly didn't read my argument and are now trying to handwave it away by mischaracterizing what I wrote.

[xorxes]

The main problem will be if rdrivera is town like brainbomb says and he flips sides. It is now so obvious who is scum and who isn't that he will just be able to join sides with EP and xorxes and we'll draw.

Please explain to me why the mafia team can't be Espresso+Brain+rivera or Espresso+brain+Ike.

[RagingIke297]

@RagingIke if you are town then confess to me, Bozo or yuuki. If you confess to anyone else I will assume you are Mafia.

Is that the mafia team?

Kinda looks like it

[xorxes]

Watching damo and yuuki do the same thing to Ike's confession that they did to mine is painful.

@Ike, don't let their flood of messages make it look like everyone will scumread you for not following their play.

Imo, you should confess to someone not tied up in mine or yuuki's chain. My suggestion is bb for reasons listed earlier, but I'm open to talking through the options.

Confession to bb is the most useless. We already know that one of bb and Ike is scum. That confession gives 0 information.

"We" don't know that at all. It could be yuuki-bozo-damo or yuuki-bozo-Espresso if neither bb nor Ike are scum.

[xorxes]

quick summary:

xorxes and EP are on the same team (it is theoretically possible that EP would claim xorxes is town when he is actual town, but given their behavior and how xorxes refuses to acknowledge that EP could be scum buddying up to him, as well as his lame excuse for not confessing to the town's vote choice, I consider that possibility as non-existent)

When have I said EP could not be scum? My "lame" excuse was validated by the GMs, you are not being sincere here.

at least two of bozo damo and yuuki are on the same team, possibly all three

Yes, that's true of any group of three people at all.

Given that there are two clear opposing teams that would claim two scum spots regardless of who is saying the truth here, there is only one scum among rdrivera, Ike, and brainbomb.

What are the two opposing teams?

[bozotheclown]

You and the rest of the town know that two a 2-scum team is in yuuki/damo or EP/xorxes.

If you confess to bb and he says you're town, I think we can use xorxes' chart to remove you and bb from the other possibilities. Doing so will result in almost a 100% town win, as we can avoid the 50/50 shot in yuuki/damo or me/xorxes because we can find the third scum.

If you confess to bb and he says you're mafia, we now have two 50/50s. One between yuuki/damo and me/xorxes and another between you and bb. This clears bozo and means that whatever information he gives us with photos is credible. Having two 50/50s increases the chances that bozo gets useful information from the pictures and can help us validate one of the 50/50s.

The other bonus here is that we likely won't have to rely on rdr. He is a wild card until his hidden agenda, and he is this a factor of uncertainty that we should not rely on.

If he

The part about brainbomb saying Ike is town is not accurate. It would not tell us anything about brainbomb and still leave open the possibility that they are scum together.

Bb/Ike can't be scum together because we can be 100% certain that 2 confirmed scum are in yuuki/damo + EP/xorxes. The BB/Ike possibilities are 2 town or 1 town 1 scum.

Here are the remaining possibilities:
BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EYZ

So, xorxes is not confirmed scum if you are scum. I think that is probably a scum slip on your part.

[xorxes]

quick summary:

xorxes and EP are on the same team (it is theoretically possible that EP would claim xorxes is town when he is actual town, but given their behavior and how xorxes refuses to acknowledge that EP could be scum buddying up to him, as well as his lame excuse for not confessing to the town's vote choice, I consider that possibility as non-existent)

at least two of bozo damo and yuuki are on the same team, possibly all three

Given that there are two clear opposing teams that would claim two scum spots regardless of who is saying the truth here, there is only one scum among rdrivera, Ike, and brainbomb.

Given brainbomb's anon tip,

one of brainbomb and ike is scum, as a town brainbomb wouldn't lie about rdrivera starting out as town, effectively clearing rd until his hidden agenda comes in play.

only way one of Ike and bb is not scum is if the scum team is damo bozo and me

Or if scum team is you, bozo and Espresso or (less likley) you, damo and Espresso.

[xorxes]

quick summary:

xorxes and EP are on the same team (it is theoretically possible that EP would claim xorxes is town when he is actual town, but given their behavior and how xorxes refuses to acknowledge that EP could be scum buddying up to him, as well as his lame excuse for not confessing to the town's vote choice, I consider that possibility as non-existent)

at least two of bozo damo and yuuki are on the same team, possibly all three

Given that there are two clear opposing teams that would claim two scum spots regardless of who is saying the truth here, there is only one scum among rdrivera, Ike, and brainbomb.

Given brainbomb's anon tip,

one of brainbomb and ike is scum, as a town brainbomb wouldn't lie about rdrivera starting out as town, effectively clearing rd until his hidden agenda comes in play.

only way one of Ike and bb is not scum is if the scum team is damo bozo and me

If onw of me and BB is scum, BB will always report my confession as scum

It is false that one of you or bb has to be scum, yuuki is distorting the facts here.

damo-espresso-yuuki, damo-yuuki-bozo, Espresso-yuuki-bozo are all possible teams that don't include you or brainbomb.

[xorxes]

Bb/Ike can't be scum together because we can be 100% certain that 2 confirmed scum are in yuuki/damo + EP/xorxes. The BB/Ike possibilities are 2 town or 1 town 1 scum.

You are confusing what you can be certain of with what everyone else can be certain of. One possible team for example is Espresso-yuuki-bozo. That team has neither yuuki/damo nor EP/xorxes. It's interesting both you and yuuki are failing to take such things into consideration.

[xorxes]

The part about brainbomb saying Ike is town is not accurate. It would not tell us anything about brainbomb and still leave open the possibility that they are scum together.

Bb/Ike can't be scum together because we can be 100% certain that 2 confirmed scum are in yuuki/damo + EP/xorxes. The BB/Ike possibilities are 2 town or 1 town 1 scum.

Here are the remaining possibilities:
BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EYZ

So, xorxes is not confirmed scum if you are scum. I think that is probably a scum slip on your part.

It could also be a townslip.

Yuuki and damo are not confirmed together either.

[bozotheclown]

only way one of Ike and bb is not scum is if the scum team is damo bozo and me

If onw of me and BB is scum, BB will always report my confession as scum

It is false that one of you or bb has to be scum, yuuki is distorting the facts here.

damo-espresso-yuuki, damo-yuuki-bozo, Espresso-yuuki-bozo are all possible teams that don't include you or brainbomb.

yuuki did qualify his statement with an assumption, so he is really stating an opinion instead a fact, so I do not think it is fair to say he is distorting the facts.

[RagingIke297]

There's literally like 2 votes, who am I confessing to before its random?

[bozotheclown]

There's literally like 2 votes, who am I confessing to before its random?

yuuki, damo, and I voted for me, and rdrivera voted for himself.

[bozotheclown]

Espresso suggested brainbomb, but I am not sure he ever made that a vote.

[EspressoPatronum]

Bb/Ike can't be scum together because we can be 100% certain that 2 confirmed scum are in yuuki/damo + EP/xorxes. The BB/Ike possibilities are 2 town or 1 town 1 scum.

You are confusing what you can be certain of with what everyone else can be certain of. One possible team for example is Espresso-yuuki-bozo. That team has neither yuuki/damo nor EP/xorxes. It's interesting both you and yuuki are failing to take such things into consideration.

Ah, I see now. I've been so deep in trying to figure out the setup that I was mixing my point of view.

In this case, fmpv, I am certain damo is scum. Since yuuki said damo is not scum, yuuki is also confirmed scum. I am also certain you are town because of your confession.

While the Yuuki/damo and EP/xorxes dichotomy may not be 100% from an objective point of view, it is clear yuuki and damo are pushing the same agenda. For whatever that's worth, I'd say that should colour the picture of the reads.

[EspressoPatronum]

Espresso suggested brainbomb, but I am not sure he ever made that a vote.

This is correct. I vote brain.

[RagingIke297]

So Bozo it is?

[yuuki]

So Bozo it is?

yeah