Mini Mafia 1008 - Triple Agent

[rdrivera2005]

I learned that rivera was loyal to the agency whatever tf that means

Bah, nothing new. I really hope I didn't get to change side as it seems an easy town win.

[xorxes]

B: brainbomb
D: damo
E: Espresso
I: Ike
R: rivera
X: xorxes
Y: yuuki
Z: bozo

We started with 56 possible mafia teams (8!/5!3!), but we now know that:

D->Y
Z->Y
X->E
R->B

So with those constraints, we are left with only 17 possible teams:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

Someone please check I didn't make a mistake.

[xorxes]

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

Y is in 12 possible teams.
E and B are in 9 possible teams each.
I is in 7 possible teams.
D and Z are in 4 possible teams each.
X and R are in 3 possible teams each.

[RagingIke297]

B: brainbomb
D: damo
E: Espresso
I: Ike
R: rivera
X: xorxes
Y: yuuki
Z: bozo

We started with 56 possible mafia teams (8!/5!3!), but we now know that:

D->Y
Z->Y
X->E
R->B

So with those constraints, we are left with only 17 possible teams:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

Someone please check I didn't make a mistake.

Oh I like this, this is good. I have a confession that I'll have to do to someone, so I'll get cleared which puts us down to 10, we got this...

[xorxes]

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

If EP confesses to damo, there are two possible results:

damo says he is town, which gives us E->D, or damo says he is mafia, which doesn't strictly gives us any info, but makes E->~D most likely (because it's unlikely but not impossible that scum!damo would say scum!EP is mafia).

So in case one we reduce it to 9 possibilities:

BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

In case 2, we still have 17, but with one unlikely one, so almost 16:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

[xorxes]

B: brainbomb
D: damo
E: Espresso
I: Ike
R: rivera
X: xorxes
Y: yuuki
Z: bozo

We started with 56 possible mafia teams (8!/5!3!), but we now know that:

D->Y
Z->Y
X->E
R->B

So with those constraints, we are left with only 17 possible teams:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

Someone please check I didn't make a mistake.

Oh I like this, this is good. I have a confession that I'll have to do to someone, so I'll get cleared which puts us down to 10, we got this...

You won't be cleared, but we will reduce the number of possibilities.

[xorxes]

In case 2, we still have 17, but with one unlikely one, so almost 16:

Actually, that's not right. I forgot we would have ~E->D, which actually reduces it to 12 with one very unlikely:

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ

[xorxes]

If EP confesses to R we have E->R or ~E->R

E->R (9 possibilities):

BDY
BER
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

~E->R (9+1 possibilities):

BEI
(BER)
BEX
BEY
BIR
DEY
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ

[RagingIke297]

The problem with this is, we're assuming everyone told the truth

[xorxes]

If EP confesses to bozo, the math is the same as for damo:

E->Z (9 possibilities):
BDY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EYZ
IYZ

~E->Z (11+1 possibilities):
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BYZ
DEY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
EXY
(EYZ)
IYZ

[xorxes]

If EP confesses to xorxes:

E->X (11 possibilities):

BDY
BEX
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EXY
IYZ

~E->X (6+3 possibilities):

BEI
BER
(BEX)
BEY
DEY
(EIX)
EIY
(EXY)
EYZ

[rdrivera2005]

I am watching my team lose an important soccer game and drinking wine so I can't check this math tonight. Will try to check tomorrow.

[xorxes]

The problem with this is, we're assuming everyone told the truth

No, we're only assuming that if they are town then they told the truth. If they are town and they lied, then they're throwing the game to mafia.

[xorxes]

if EP confesses to Ike, we have:

E->I (11 cases):

BDY
BEI
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
EIX
EIY
IYZ

~E->I (11+2cases):

(BEI)
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
DEY
DIY
(EIX)
(EIY)
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

[xorxes]

If EP confesses to yuuki:

E->Y (13 cases):

BDY
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
DIY
DYZ
EIY
EXY
EYZ
IYZ

~E->Y (11+5 cases):

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
(BEY)
BIY
BRY
BYZ
(DEY)
DIY
DYZ
EIX
(EIY)
(EXY)
(EYZ)
IYZ

[xorxes]

If EP confesses to brainbomb;

E->B (12 cases):

BDY
BEI
BER
BEX
BEY
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DIY
DYZ
IYZ

~E->B (10 + 4 cases):

BDY
(BEI)
(BER)
(BEX)
(BEY)
BIR
BIY
BRY
BYZ
DEY
EIX
EIY
EXY
EYZ

[xorxes]

In summary:

rivera 9; 9(1)
xorxes 11; 6(3)
damo 9; 11(1)
bozo 9; 11(1)
Ike 11; 11(2)
bb 12; 10(4)
yuuki 13; 11(5)

So (assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, again please someone check) EP should confess to rivera or to myself. damo or bozo would not be the worst, but not the best either.

In any case, we will reduce even more the possibilities with Ike's confession and with the two old photos, so we probably will get it narrowed down to one possibility by the end of the game.

[bozotheclown]

In summary:

rivera 9; 9(1)
xorxes 11; 6(3)
damo 9; 11(1)
bozo 9; 11(1)
Ike 11; 11(2)
bb 12; 10(4)
yuuki 13; 11(5)

So (assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, again please someone check) EP should confess to rivera or to myself. damo or bozo would not be the worst, but not the best either.

In any case, we will reduce even more the possibilities with Ike's confession and with the two old photos, so we probably will get it narrowed down to one possibility by the end of the game.

Your combinations look reasonable, but not your conclusion. We do not need to identify the entire mafia team, and all of the cases where Espresso is reported as mafia result in a 50/50 counterclaim involving Espresso. Also, rdrivera's hidden agenda makes him a questionable choice for Espresso to confess to. So, looking at the cases where Espresso is reported as town, I would say your analysis supports Espresso confessing to me or damo.

[xorxes]

In summary:

rivera 9; 9(1)
xorxes 11; 6(3)
damo 9; 11(1)
bozo 9; 11(1)
Ike 11; 11(2)
bb 12; 10(4)
yuuki 13; 11(5)

So (assuming I didn't make any mistakes in my math, again please someone check) EP should confess to rivera or to myself. damo or bozo would not be the worst, but not the best either.

In any case, we will reduce even more the possibilities with Ike's confession and with the two old photos, so we probably will get it narrowed down to one possibility by the end of the game.

Your combinations look reasonable, but not your conclusion. We do not need to identify the entire mafia team, and all of the cases where Espresso is reported as mafia result in a 50/50 counterclaim involving Espresso. Also, rdrivera's hidden agenda makes him a questionable choice for Espresso to confess to. So, looking at the cases where Espresso is reported as town, I would say your analysis supports Espresso confessing to me or damo.

You're right about rivera, my math assumes that town!rivera will always tell the truth, but that's not a valid assumption.

A 50/50 shot is not what we want to aim for. We want to reduce the possibilities to a minimum, so that we get better than a 50/50 shot.

[bozotheclown]

Also, Espresso confessing to you after you confessed to Espresso makes no sense, and the fact you presented it as one of the best options just makes it look even more like you and Espresso are both mafia.