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orathaic wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:44 pm

China specifically is not in a rush. They were a world power before the US had spread across the continent, and they will be again. The 200 years in between have not been kind, but they can afford to bide their time and not get into a war which could set them back a few decades.

Putin leading a declining Russia is not in a similar position. Did anyone else see his terms?

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-s ... 022-03-07/

"Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states."

Matticus13 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:07 am

"Dmitry Peskov said Moscow was demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states."

Octavious wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:36 am

My guess is that Putin would be willing to settle for the breakaway regions permanently leaving Ukraine, with Ukraine dropping all claims to them and Crimea in perpetuity, as well as some guarantee that Ukraine will join neither the EU or NATO.

As I say, so far everything has been as anticipated. So the question becomes whether the West will encourage Ukraine to take this deal or encourage them to continue dying for an extended period first. Obviously the media will be full of defiant bluster regardless. The advantage of an earlier deal over a later deal, aside from the small matter of countless Ukrainian lives and ruined cities, is that the weakness of the Western position won't become fully apparent.

Octavious wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:31 am

As I say, so far everything has been as anticipated. So the question becomes whether the West will encourage Ukraine to take this deal or encourage them to continue dying for an extended period first. Obviously the media will be full of defiant bluster regardless. The advantage of an earlier deal over a later deal, aside from the small matter of countless Ukrainian lives and ruined cities, is that the weakness of the Western position won't become fully apparent.

Indeed, not sure what you mean 'weakness' of the Western position. This sounds like a terrible deal all round. Russia gaining legitimacy would remove the justification for sanctions, Putin gaining a victory while giving him time to analyze why his 'blitzkreig' failed - that would make the West appear weak in his eyes. Proving that even while his military has utterly failed in their original objectives, he can threaten to kill enough people and escalate the situation in order to get whatever he wants.

That is why nobody in Eastern Europe wants to see this result. From Finland to Romania... Even the most rightwing anti-immigration countries are letting in hundreds of thousands of refugees. Meanwhile some US commentators are describing the EU as a new super power... A 'trilateral world' they say,

And with reports of another Russian general killed in action, continuing military aid (not to mention international volunteers) and possibly Polish fighters planes heading to Ukraine, i seriously doubt they will be accepting this offer any time soon.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

Meanwhile some US commentators are describing the EU as a new super power... A 'trilateral world' they say

Lol

A little to reliant on 'Merican firepower and boots to qualify as a "Superpower"

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

And with reports of another Russian general killed in action, continuing military aid (not to mention international volunteers) and possibly Polish fighters planes heading to Ukraine, i seriously doubt they will be accepting this offer any time soon.

Volunteers > MIGs

The planes are a terrible idea. No need to waste your brave pilots on suicide missions. The chance of meaningful impact is zero due to Russian air defense systems.

I doubt that NATO allows the MiGs to get airborne before reaching Ukraine. Once across, it's open season. Russian intelligence officers amongst the refugees will certainly be on the lookout.

Maybe they've come up with a clever work around...

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

Russia gaining legitimacy would remove the justification for sanctions

Gaining legitimacy in what sense?

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

Putin gaining a victory while giving him time to analyze why his 'blitzkreig' failed

What makes you think Putin's plans failed?

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

that would make the West appear weak in his eyes.

The West is weak. We were unable to aid Ukraine with anything significant. Western disunity prevented Ukraine getting enough defensive capability prior to the invasion to discourage it, and the West is unwilling and unable to defend Ukraine against Russia after the invasion has started. But the greatest weakness of all is in the Western economy, severely damaged by the financial crash and coronavirus, and in no position to maintain the sanctions it has begun. We are brittle. We can absorb refugees whilst there's an apparent abundance of jobs, but when the sanctions start to bite... when people start to really struggle to pay for the fuel in their cars, for the rapidly rising price of food, for the electricity bill... when companies go bust because they can't afford to keep production running and unemployment starts to creep up... Do you expect the West to be as robust as Russia? Some nations will be hit harder than others, and be desperate for sanctions to end, and the veneer of unity will shatter.

Russia, of course, will be hit harder. But Russia is to a large degree a lot more used to such things and better able to weather them. It may well be that, should the war and sanctions last, it's Russia that breaks first. But it's by no means certain and it won't be at all fun finding out.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

Proving that even while his military has utterly failed in their original objectives

Where are you getting these ideas from? What objectives has he failed to achieve?

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

Meanwhile some US commentators are describing the EU as a new super power... A 'trilateral world' they say,

orathaic wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 6:58 pm

i seriously doubt they will be accepting this offer any time soon.

I really hope that they do. Time will tell. Out of interest, what new equilibrium do you see being established that will end the war, and how do we get there?

Matticus13 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Volunteers > MIGs

The planes are a terrible idea. No need to waste your brave pilots on suicide missions. The chance of meaningful impact is zero due to Russian air defense systems.

Then what is the courage of these pilots? Sitting behind a simulator? ))
This is the essence of NATO. And the Western world in general. No courage. Only gays, tolerance and foppery. Shame.

Flame wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:30 am

Matticus13 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Volunteers > MIGs

The planes are a terrible idea. No need to waste your brave pilots on suicide missions. The chance of meaningful impact is zero due to Russian air defense systems.

Then what is the courage of these pilots? Sitting behind a simulator? ))
This is the essence of NATO. And the Western world in general. No courage. Only gays, tolerance and foppery. Shame.

It's not courageous to send the willing to certain death with no hope of success. Stay safe if you're still in Ukraine, Flame.

Matticus13 wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:03 am

Stay safe if you're still in Ukraine, Flame.

Yes, I am. Thanks.

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has emerged as the key mediator for indirect talks between Zelensky and Putin. His experience cultivating a diverse collation in Israel to oust Benjamin Netanyahu might be helpful...

I'm still skeptical Zelensky accepts anything ceding territory in the current round of talks.

Where are you getting these ideas from? What objectives has he failed to achieve

Pretty sure i linked several discussions above.

His objective was to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership and take the capital on a 'special operation' without being bogged down for weeks in an actual war.

See also his rapid victory in Georgia in 2008, or his rapid victory in Ukraine+Crimea in 2014.

Flame wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 09, 2022 2:30 am

Matticus13 wrote: ↑

Tue Mar 08, 2022 8:26 pm

Volunteers > MIGs

The planes are a terrible idea. No need to waste your brave pilots on suicide missions. The chance of meaningful impact is zero due to Russian air defense systems.

Then what is the courage of these pilots? Sitting behind a simulator? ))
This is the essence of NATO. And the Western world in general. No courage. Only gays, tolerance and foppery. Shame.

The plan being discussed (which i first saw US politicians mention) was for Poland to supply Soviet era jets to Ukr which Ukrainian pilots are already able to fly... So I'm not sure what this has to do with NATO pilot's courage

US military deciding not to approve the transfer (despite being happy enough to supply Poland with replacement jets that their pilots would need to train in) is fear of escalating things. The same reason most nations have refrained from sending actual troops to help, while (in some cases) allowed individual troops to abandon their jobs and travel independently to Ukraine to fight with the new foreign legion.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:09 am

Pretty sure i linked several discussions above.

His objective was to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership and take the capital on a 'special operation' without being bogged down for weeks in an actual war.

See also his rapid victory in Georgia in 2008, or his rapid victory in Ukraine+Crimea in 2014.

No actual evidence for it at all, then? Just checking to see if I'd missed anything .

As for decapitating the leadership, it is quite hard to reach a negotiated conclusion if you've just killed the people you want to negotiate with. It's only worth removing them if you're certain they are unwilling to make a deal. If it becomes apparent that this is the case, decapitation efforts will soon follow.

Obviously it is difficult in the dog of war to determine anything. So best guesses all round. It looks like the Russians took a few days to regroup and reorganise, and have now moved onto shelling cities until nothing but rubble is left.

The reading i have seen is that having failed to achieve their initial objectives, the current plan is to make Ukraine fáil at its main objective (ie continuing to exist).

US and Europe will not be able to stay away. Putin lacks now soldiers, so he is ready to arm ISIS, SYRIA, IRAN troops for the war in Ukraine. This means that terrorists will regain access to weapons. And in this case we are not too far from September, 11, 2001 again. If Baiden is not ready to combat against Putin he will got terror back to US.

Flame wrote: ↑

Sat Mar 12, 2022 8:36 am

US and Europe will not be able to stay away. Putin lacks now soldiers, so he is ready to arm ISIS, SYRIA, IRAN troops for the war in Ukraine. This means that terrorists will regain access to weapons. And in this case we are not too far from September, 11, 2001 again. If Baiden is not ready to combat against Putin he will got terror back to US.

Syrians and Iranians are not short of weapons, and September 11th was carried out very effectively without them. I doubt that this will make any difference to the wider situation. Biden will not send any American forces to Ukraine, and neither will the rest of Europe. Kyiv, and every other city in Ukraine, could be utterly destroyed by Russian artillery and it wouldn't make Biden change his mind.

Western policy is to make Russia pay dearly for its actions in Ukraine. It is not Western policy to save Ukraine. As grim as this reality is, it is important not to hide from it.

I must agree with you that US proverbs about democracy is just a shelter for the pragmatic geopolitics and nothing else. Yes, it's true.

Here is some more from the same source: https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... Y1bITp8RoQ

Describing here more of the state security and what happened to them after the fed Putin what he wanted to hear (actually a long thread about Russian military).

Another translated doc purporting to be from Russia FSB:
http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/hits- ... n.html?m=1

Does described clearly 'huge failure' on their part, ie the invasion didn't go according to plan. @Oct will not be satisfied. But fog of war means we can verify nothing at this point.

orathaic wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 13, 2022 2:39 pm

Another translated doc purporting to be from Russia FSB:
http://www.igorsushko.com/2022/03/hits- ... n.html?m=1

Does described clearly 'huge failure' on their part, ie the invasion didn't go according to plan. @Oct will not be satisfied. But fog of war means we can verify nothing at this point.

@Oct will never be satisfied no matter what you show him or how compelling the evidence is (making no judgments on what you have currently presented). He will just dismiss it out of hand. I think he is also just messing with you to keep you busy (he does this often). I don't think he has much insight here.

It is pretty damn obvious that things didn't go exactly to plan and Putin thought it would be easy. Unlike the US in Iraq for example, the Russians didn't go in with "shock and awe" to demoralize a determined enemy. In the first few days I was really surprised at how little indiscriminate bombing and attacks on key infrastructure were actually done. It appeared they were hoping to take over without doing much damage at all.

As the Russians have gradually realized that it was going to be much harder than they have thought, the bombing and brutality is gradually increasing. They are even now trying to bring outside forces to bear on the situation (like mercenaries from Syria). Again I just can't believe that this was the original plan.

Of course that doesn't mean they won't still win. With the incredible firepower that the US brought to bear in Iraq it still took them 21 days to take Baghdad. We aren't even three weeks into this conflict yet. However if the Russians do finally prevail, they will have the same problems that the US had in Iraq/Afghanistan. The war is the easy part. The hard part will be trying to maintain the occupation. I don't believe the Russians will have the resources to sustain this longer term.