War, what is it good for?

[Octavious]

And if it turns out that there's solid evidence connecting Iran to the attacks then I struggle to imagine how a significant escalation can be avoided. Israel has no option but to hit Hamas hard, or its legitimacy in the eyes of its own people evaporates. If Iran was behind the attack.. I don't see a way out

[orathaic]

I think Iranian weapons were definitely used in this attack.

I don't think that is justification for a large scale invasion of Iran.

Israel is not capable of a projecting troops into Iran, and i would suspect they will destroy some Iranian missile/drone factories with air strikes.

This doesn't seem like much of an escalation considering Israel has launched air strike like this in the past.

I don't really see what Iran has to gain from orchestrating this attack, but then i am blissfully ignorant of the internal thoughts or politicing of the Iranian regime.

A step-by-step programme to re-integrate Iran into the international trading system (end of sanctions) in exchange for a nuclear deal, and some kind of deal on the sponsorship of terrorism might start now with baby steps (notably we don't make peace with our friends... So of course Iran being an enemy is to be assumed as the starting point).

Now this may be entitely wishful thinking on my part. But i would rather not see a nuclear armed Iran antagonistic towards Israel, and using its influence to fight a proxy war against the Saudis.

[orathaic]

The major powers in the region are Iran, Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Israel.

And the end goal should be for them to form a security council of sorts to lead peaceful regional cooperation.

The only country in the world which is capable of getting these parties to thesame table would be the United States, and even then, sitting at a table with Israel seems like it can not happen for at least Iran... But historically i think only Turkey could sit down with Israel, and thigs have changed.

[Octavious]

I think Iranian weapons were definitely used in this attack.

I don't think that is justification for a large scale invasion of Iran.

That Iranian weapons were used goes without saying. By connection I'm talking about a role in the planning and execution stage rather than being a dodgy arms dealer. I perhaps could have made that clearer, but I thought it was obvious.

I don't really see what Iran has to gain from orchestrating this attack, but then i am blissfully ignorant of the internal thoughts or politicing of the Iranian regime.

Massive, clear, and obvious gains. Israel has recently been making massive progress in forming workable diplomatic relations with its Arab neighbours, most notably Saudi Arabia, but also the UAE, Morocco, and Bahrain. The attack has effectively repolarised the region. Isreal has no choice but to attack Hamas, and the people of the Middle East will once again be invigorated with a hatred of Jews on a par with your average Nazi. You're supposed to be a Diplomacy player, ora. You'd want to see Russia and Turkey at each other's throats even if you didn't hate their guts.

A step-by-step programme to re-integrate Iran into the international trading system (end of sanctions) in exchange for a nuclear deal, and some kind of deal on the sponsorship of terrorism might start now with baby steps (notably we don't make peace with our friends... So of course Iran being an enemy is to be assumed as the starting point).

There are different levels of enemy. If Iran becomes known as being behind the attack then there is no reintegration. There is regime change

[orathaic]

There are different levels of enemy. If Iran becomes known as being behind the attack then there is no reintegration. There is regime change

How exactly do you imagine regime change would work? More like Iraq or Afghanistan?

[Octavious]

Depends on who is leading the project, and who is a willing participant, and the scale of the opposition.

[Octavious]

From Isreal's point of view there's no possible Iranian government worse than the one that currently exists, so at its most basic it could be limited to a decapitation attempt of the existing leadership with minimal interest in post event nation building. A collapse of Iranian society could feasibly be viewed as a desirable outcome rather than mission cock-up. It very much depends on who's involved.

[orathaic]

Nothing could possibly go wrong.

A power vacuum like the one which allowed Islamic State to gain a global following, of a 20 year war, which resulted in the Taliban coming back to power the same day the Americans left...

Yeah, none of this ends well, unless you are a fan of terror attacks by non-state actors.

[Octavious]

Oh yeah, it's hell in a handcart stuff. I'm not in favour of any of this, but am seeing few possible ways of avoiding it. Iran not being involved is possible but highly unlikely. Israel deliberately not finding evidence of Iranian involvement is perhaps the best hope... but you look at the Israeli government and they don't seem the sort.

My best guess as to what has happened is that Iran pressured Hamas into taking this action in an effort to scupper the surprisingly successful looking Isreal - Arab diplomatic efforts. What I'm also guessing is that Iran, or at least the Iranians making the decisions, were not anticipating quite the level of depraved brutality Hamas were willing to unleash. They put a firework through a letterbox to give someone a fright, and ended up burning down an entire block of flats with everyone in it.

Russia will be delighted, as will every far right and Muslim extremist group in Europe.

[Jamiet99uk]

My current position is as follows:

1. Hamas should not be doing what they are doing.

2. Fuck Israel.

[orathaic]

<Snip>

Well i guess we are agreed on this being mostly shit.

Russia will be delighted, as will every far right and Muslim extremist group in Europe.

Russia will. Surely the far right have a tough time deciding whether to hate Muslims or Jews more... And will bicker over which side they should support...

Muslim extremists will be happy though? I suspect Hamas being steam rolled will not have them happy for long .. matbe i am missing your reasoning.

[Octavious]

Surely the far right have a tough time deciding whether to hate Muslims or Jews more..

I doubt they'll give it a moment's thought, and will be comfortable sharing Jamie's stance of enthusiastically condemning both. But what they will be excited by are the images of Muslims across the West celebrating the atrocity, as this is as good a recruiting tool as they could hope for. That and the inevitable terror incidents that will start cropping up in increasing numbers in Europe. There has been a general increase in the power of the far right in Europe in recent years, and this will help them considerably.

Muslim extremists will be happy though? I suspect Hamas being steam rolled will not have them happy for long .. matbe i am missing your reasoning.

You are working under the assumption that they give a shit about Gaza. They don't. What they care about is having a good excuse to take the good fight to the old enemy. They can enjoy that lovely sense of community that comes with getting together to chant death to the Jews with like minded people, and then go around duffing people up and smashing stuff. They are happy as pigs in shit

[Octavious]

Excellent piece of diplomatic manoeuvring by Iran.

They know what's likely coming, and have concluded that the optics of getting punished for defending the people of Gaza is far easier to sell than getting punished for instigating an attack that murdered babies and festival goers.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-ea ... 023-10-14/

[orathaic]

Really? Seems just standard "we're not the bad guys" rhetoric. Exactly what the US would do if they wanted to justify going in to defend somewhere like Kuwait (when Saddam attacked).

Also, i am begining to suspect Russia had more involvement than Iran, sure Iran wants to scupper the Saudi deal, but that isn't an existential threat. Russia needs to distract Western powers from the war in Ukraine, as losing there would end Puton's regime, and creating distractions (Wagner group backing anti-western coups across Africa/the Sahel) has not worked so far...

[Octavious]

The difference being that if the US wanted to defend Gaza from Isreal the President issues an order and the world's most capable military makes it happen. Iran does not have the ability to defend Gaza, therefore saying the same thing carries very different meaning.

It's entirely possible that Russia encouraged Iran to make Hamas take this action, but I've not seen anything that suggests Russia has any direct control. Muslim nations and groups may not hate Russia with the same enthusiasm as they hate Isreal, but at best there's deep distrust.

[orathaic]

What i have seen of the planning seems to have people assuming Iran was deeply involved (planning documents).

See: https://youtu.be/RvYwfl7dgTY?si=JunsilNdZXwYe-Xi

The plan seems to have been very detailed and carefully thought out.

What Russia has been doing (regarding the large number of coups in the Sahel region) and what the Chechens will do (with or without approval of Putin) will continue to reverberate across the world. But the western media's lack of empathy for brown peoples is rsther showing.

[Octavious]

I confess I'm never as acutely focused on race as you tend to be. When you say brown people are you referring to the Gazans, the Iranians, the Israelis, or some combination of some of them, or all of them?

[orathaic]

It is odd how much western media - and hence the US - cared about (white-ish) Ukrainians which Russia killed compared to brownish Syrians (a little earlier) and now how White Israelis have become... (While simulataneously black folks in Africa get almost no coverage when killed by Russians...)

It is not actually 'race' or skin colour that matters, it is how racialised a group has been. And it seems like made up discrimination...

[Jamiet99uk]

Tonight Israel is committing genocide in plain view of the world, and nobody will stop them.

[Octavious]

Tonight Israel is committing genocide in plain view of the world, and nobody will stop them.

Can one commit genocide in a night?

It is a vile and disgusting response to a vile and disgusting attack, but we should not overuse the word genocide