War, what is it good for?

[Octavious]

https://twitter.com/FT/status/1751855979665268770?t=u7w-xU6XMvE47pW-LsniXg&s=19



The EU will sabotage Hungary’s economy if Budapest blocks fresh aid to Ukraine at a summit this week, under a confidential plan drawn up by Brussels that marks a significant escalation in the battle between the EU and its most pro-Russian member state. 

In a document drawn up by EU officials and seen by the Financial Times, Brussels has outlined a strategy to explicitly target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, imperil its currency and drive a collapse in investor confidence in a bid to hurt “jobs and growth” if Budapest refuses to lift its veto against the aid to Kyiv.


Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s premier, has vowed to block the use of the EU budget to provide €50bn in financial aid to Ukraine at an emergency summit of leaders on Thursday.

If he does not back down, other EU leaders should publicly vow to permanently shut off all EU funding to Budapest with the intention of spooking the markets, precipitating a run on the country’s forint currency and a surge in the cost of its borrowing, Brussels stated in the document.

“This is Europe telling Viktor Orbán ‘enough is enough; it’s time to get in line. You may have a pistol, but we have the bazooka’,” said Mujtaba Rahman, Europe director at Eurasia Group, a consultancy.

The document declares that “in the case of no agreement in the February 1 [summit], other heads of state and government would publicly declare that in the light of the unconstructive behaviour of the Hungarian PM . . . they cannot imagine that” EU funds would be provided to Budapest.

Without that funding, “financial markets and European and international companies might be less interested to invest in Hungary”, the document stated. Such punishment “could quickly trigger a further increase of the cost of funding of the public deficit and a drop in the currency”.

János Bóka, Hungary’s EU minister, told the FT that Budapest was not aware of the financial threat, but that his country “does not give in to pressure”.

“Hungary does not establish a connection between support for Ukraine and access to EU funds, and rejects other parties doing so,” he said. “Hungary has and will continue to participate constructively in the negotiations.”

But in a sign of the rising pressure on Budapest to strike a compromise, Bóka said Budapest sent a new proposal to Brussels on Saturday, specifying it was now open to using the EU budget for the Ukraine package and even issuing common debt to finance it, if other caveats were added that gave Budapest the opportunity to change its mind at a later date.

The document, produced by an official in the Council of the EU, the Brussels body that represents member states, lays out Hungary’s economic vulnerabilities — including its “very high public deficit”, “very high inflation”, weak currency and the EU’s highest level of debt servicing payments as a proportion of gross domestic product.

It lays outs how “jobs and growth . . . depend to a large extent” on overseas finance that is predicated on high levels of EU funding.

A spokesperson for the Council of the EU said they did not comment on leaks.

Brussels has wielded its financial leverage against member states before, such as with Poland and Hungary over rule of law concerns and Greece during the eurozone crisis, but a strategy to explicitly seek to undermine a member state’s economy would mark a major new step for the bloc.

Three EU diplomats told the FT that many countries backed the plan. “The mood has got harsher,” said one. “What kind of union do we have if we allow this kind of behaviour?”

Another said: “The stakes are high. It is blackmail.”

Bóka told the FT that Budapest wanted “to explore the possibility of a more constructive and European solution” and has proposed it could support the €50bn plan if it was given an annual veto on the payments. Other EU countries have already refused this suggestion as they fear Orbán would seek to block it every year and extract further concessions.

But one of the diplomats added there was “no way” Orbán would get a veto over funding. 

Bóka said “the political pressure on Hungary is continuous and strong” but that it did not influence his government’s negotiations.

“We had to take a step, and we trust that the other party will be similarly flexible,” he added.

While 26 member states have a plan B to send money to Kyiv outside the EU budget, that would require national parliaments’ ratification, causing delays and uncertainty. 

Several capitals have considered whether it is feasible to use Article 7 of the Treaty on the European Union, which would allow Brussels to strip Budapest of its voting rights or, one diplomat said, block disbursement of money. But others have rebuffed the notion given that it requires unanimous support and many countries are reluctant to deploy such a serious sanction. 

Bóka said it was important that EU unity was “preserved”, adding: “That is why we are willing to make compromises so long as they do not affect our vital interests.”

He added, however, that if the compromise effort failed, Hungary’s original proposal of a separate Ukraine fund outside the EU budget would be Budapest’s preference.

[Octavious]

It's pretty grim reading. The EU threatening to strip members of voting rights and sabotage members' economies unless they do what they told is extremely disturbing. I am increasingly glad that the UK is no longer a member

[Octavious]

For those unfamiliar with the UK's newspapers, the Financial Times is considered to be one of the most reliable newspapers, with a centre to centre-right political stance and a pro-Europe outlook

[Jamiet99uk]

I agree with you that the FT is usually quite a reliable source.

This story is concerning as it implies the plans are the work of "EU Officials". Who gave them the task of formulating such plans? At the very least this should be discussed in the European Parliament before serious policy work is undertaken in earnest. I pause slightly because ascribing things to faceless "EU Bureaucrats" is a favourite tactic of the right-wing press, often employed inaccurately.

While I do not share your glee at the UK sabotaging its economy and isolating itself on the European stage, and whilst I also have no love for Viktor Orbán because he's a fucking fascist.... I must say that should this FT story prove to be true, I would share your concerns, genuinely.

[orathaic]

It's pretty grim reading. The EU threatening to strip members of voting rights and sabotage members' economies unless they do what they told is extremely disturbing. I am increasingly glad that the UK is no longer a member

Actually given that Hungary has for a few years now failed to live up to the democratic ideals of the EU and treaty obligations, I think the right of the test of the EU to exclude them is a necessary function.

Whether it is a threat to be leveraged in order to prevent further slide into dictatorship, or required to exclude them after the fact, my understanding is that it had not been used before because Poland was supporting Hungary (but Poland has recently had a change of government, and thus may no longer feel the same about dictatorships in the EU).

Unfortunately Hungary may have allies in other countries now.

But assume for a moment there is a point where these powers are required. What would you expect a country would have to do in order for the EU to suspend funding and block voting rights?

[orathaic]

While I do not share your glee at the UK sabotaging its economy and isolating itself on the European stage, and whilst I also have no love for Viktor Orbán because he's a fucking fascist.... I must say that should this FT story prove to be true, I would share your concerns, genuinely.

I am amused that the concern is "being removed from the EU by consensus of the other members is terrible for the economy".

Yeah, and doing it to yourself is pretty obviously just as bad...

But if every other member state decides they can't continue with them, then Absent this power they could simply leave the EU themselves, and form a new Union without Hungary. I don't see how this is practically any different.

[Jamiet99uk]

While I do not share your glee at the UK sabotaging its economy and isolating itself on the European stage, and whilst I also have no love for Viktor Orbán because he's a fucking fascist.... I must say that should this FT story prove to be true, I would share your concerns, genuinely.

I am amused that the concern is "being removed from the EU by consensus of the other members is terrible for the economy".

Yeah, and doing it to yourself is pretty obviously just as bad...

But if every other member state decides they can't continue with them, then Absent this power they could simply leave the EU themselves, and form a new Union without Hungary. I don't see how this is practically any different.

The question is whether the decision to do this is being taken by unelected "officials", as the article asserts (without clear evidence), or whether it is the decision of elected representatives of the majority of other EU member states. The latter is clearly preferable to the former.

[Jamiet99uk]

This source says that the FT story is unlikely to be accurate:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/news/eu-unlikely-to-follow-through-on-hungary-funding-threat/

[orathaic]

While I do not share your glee at the UK sabotaging its economy and isolating itself on the European stage, and whilst I also have no love for Viktor Orbán because he's a fucking fascist.... I must say that should this FT story prove to be true, I would share your concerns, genuinely.

I am amused that the concern is "being removed from the EU by consensus of the other members is terrible for the economy".

Yeah, and doing it to yourself is pretty obviously just as bad...

But if every other member state decides they can't continue with them, then Absent this power they could simply leave the EU themselves, and form a new Union without Hungary. I don't see how this is practically any different.

The question is whether the decision to do this is being taken by unelected "officials", as the article asserts (without clear evidence), or whether it is the decision of elected representatives of the majority of other EU member states. The latter is clearly preferable to the former.

That would be a concern. But I'm not actually sure if the Commission has that power... I might be wrong, but the Council would be the ones where a Polish Veto would have been wielded, since the Commissioner don't represent their countries (at least in theory).

[Jamiet99uk]

It appears there was no substance to the story after all:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

It appears there was no substance to the story after all:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971

That doesn't seem quite right.

The EU didn't end up taking punitive measures against Hungary in order to secure the package for Ukraine. But certainly the EU beaurocracy was preparing punitive options they could have used to push Hungary to agree — the leaked options may have been the most extreme ones (i.e., very unlikely to be implemented) and the leak itself may have been an intentional way to signal to Hungary the potential cost of obstinance on this package.

[Octavious]

So apparently "I Stand with Israel" stickers have started to appear in station toilets in the UK, with razor blades hidden behind them designed to cause injury to anyone who attempts to remove them.

Whether or not this is being done by genuine and rather nasty supporters of Israel, or by antisemites trying to further encourage hatred of Jews, isn't entirely clear. But it is certainly a symptom that things are getting worse.

[CaptainFritz28]

So apparently "I Stand with Israel" stickers have started to appear in station toilets in the UK, with razor blades hidden behind them designed to cause injury to anyone who attempts to remove them.

Whether or not this is being done by genuine and rather nasty supporters of Israel, or by antisemites trying to further encourage hatred of Jews, isn't entirely clear. But it is certainly a symptom that things are getting worse.

Wait, you're telling me that doing physical harm to those who disagree with me isn't going to help them agree with me? No...

Also yeah they could be frauds. Who knows?

[Jamiet99uk]

So apparently "I Stand with Israel" stickers have started to appear in station toilets in the UK, with razor blades hidden behind them designed to cause injury to anyone who attempts to remove them.

Whether or not this is being done by genuine and rather nasty supporters of Israel, or by antisemites trying to further encourage hatred of Jews, isn't entirely clear. But it is certainly a symptom that things are getting worse.

Source?

"israel toilet sticker razor" returns no results on Google.

[Jamiet99uk]

It appears there was no substance to the story after all:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971

That doesn't seem quite right.

The EU didn't end up taking punitive measures against Hungary in order to secure the package for Ukraine. But certainly the EU beaueaurocracy was preparing punitive options they could have used to push Hungary to agree — the leaked options may have been the most extreme ones (i.e., very unlikely to be implemented) and the leak itself may have been an intentional way to signal to Hungary the potential cost of obstinance on this package.

I have seen no evidence for the original claim that EU officials were planning a scheme to financially punish Hungary without being instructed, or given approval to do so, by elected representatives.

[Octavious]

So apparently "I Stand with Israel" stickers have started to appear in station toilets in the UK, with razor blades hidden behind them designed to cause injury to anyone who attempts to remove them.

Whether or not this is being done by genuine and rather nasty supporters of Israel, or by antisemites trying to further encourage hatred of Jews, isn't entirely clear. But it is certainly a symptom that things are getting worse.

Source?

"israel toilet sticker razor" returns no results on Google.

Internal railway safety brief.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

It appears there was no substance to the story after all:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68165971

That doesn't seem quite right.

The EU didn't end up taking punitive measures against Hungary in order to secure the package for Ukraine. But certainly the EU beaueaurocracy was preparing punitive options they could have used to push Hungary to agree — the leaked options may have been the most extreme ones (i.e., very unlikely to be implemented) and the leak itself may have been an intentional way to signal to Hungary the potential cost of obstinance on this package.

I have seen no evidence for the original claim that EU officials were planning a scheme to financially punish Hungary without being instructed, or given approval to do so, by elected representatives.

Was the original leak provably false? It's a core feature of the EU that the economic benefits of membership can be weaponized to achieve the group's broader geopolitical goals and to try to enforce liberal/democratic norms — that seems central to the entire project.

I've never been an EU beaurocrat, but in other government jobs I've worked in you often develop options and analysis for the elected officials in advance of being formally tasked by them, or in response to very informal tastings. If I held the pen on the briefing note regarding the Ukrainian package, I would definitely include an "Implementation Risks" section that described the Hungarian situation and fleshed out options to mitigate their opposition (which could include both carrots and sticks). It would be weird to write this note without addressing this obvious issue.

Of course, if the original FT reporting was just a hallucination or fabrication than maybe none of this happened. I would just be extremely surprised if the EU system wasn't considering options to ensure the package could be pushed through despite Hungary's intial opposition.

[Octavious]

So apparently "I Stand with Israel" stickers have started to appear in station toilets in the UK, with razor blades hidden behind them designed to cause injury to anyone who attempts to remove them.

Whether or not this is being done by genuine and rather nasty supporters of Israel, or by antisemites trying to further encourage hatred of Jews, isn't entirely clear. But it is certainly a symptom that things are getting worse.

Source?

"israel toilet sticker razor" returns no results on Google.

Internal railway safety brief.

Thinking about it, it is very curious that something that is very newsworthy and rather important from a safety of the public point of view hasn't actually been taken up by any news services. It's like that infamous railway bridge in London that has almost weekly suicide attempts from it made by young Muslim women escaping the hell their families are putting them through. How the hell that doesn't make the news I have no idea.

[Jamiet99uk]

Source?

"israel toilet sticker razor" returns no results on Google.

Internal railway safety brief.

Thinking about it, it is very curious that something that is very newsworthy and rather important from a safety of the public point of view hasn't actually been taken up by any news services. It's like that infamous railway bridge in London that has almost weekly suicide attempts from it made by young Muslim women escaping the hell their families are putting them through. How the hell that doesn't make the news I have no idea.

I'm afraid people committing suicide in the UK by jumping off particularly accessible railway bridges and viaducts is quite a common occurrence.

I saw someone go off Durham viaduct a few years ago, it was horrible.

[Octavious]

Not that common, and typically only at certain times of year. This is constant and unrelenting. They are typically young and barefoot because they are not allowed to wear shoes. Less chance of escape that way