War, what is it good for?

[orathaic]

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

[CaptainFritz28]

But I guess that is pretty much the case anyway) would be enough to collapse the Republican lead House and instead force a coalition of centre left and centre right to take over...

Which wouldn't necessaroly be a bad thing, in my opinion.

On that we can agree... extremism on both sides is getting out of hand.

Really I think we just need more parties and thus better representation; America wasn't designed to work as a two-party system, and yet it evolved one and never recovered. The fact that you really don't stand a chance of getting elected unless you align yourself as Republican or Democrat, even if both are wrong about some issues, is a flaw.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Egypt wants next to nothing to do with it. They have the Muslim brotherhood, their equivalent to Hamas, and I think they had a cue to remove them from power, because their military would rather just not.

Peace over fighting a war for the Muslim Brotherhood and democracy.

Jordan has an issue that a majority of their population are Palestinians (who fled from Palestine over the past decades). And so they would also love to have a peaceful solution where some of that population can return (whether to the West Bank or otherwise) but I don't know what their current thinking is now, other than fearing what this large population of refugees could do if they sided too much with Israel.

And those are the two major neighbourhood who want peace (I'm sure someone who has done more recent reading could enlighten me further...)

This is my point as well. That Israel and Palestine's neighbours want peace in the abstract doesn't really matter. They aren't going to dedicate more resources to it. They aren't going to take more refugees. They're scared to death of radicalized Palestinians, the political violent of the Muslim Brotherhood, and the prospect of having to finally accept that an awful lot of Palestinian refugees who have lived in their countries for generations without a path to citizenship (some families since the 1940s) aren't going back, probably ever.

[/quote]
Gaza will be demilitarized one way or another.
[/quote]

That may be easier said than done.
Israel has been blockading Gaza since Hamas took over, and they still managed to get weapons in, despite Egypt not exactly supporting the weapons flow. So expect massive Palestinian casualties.

I definitely don't mean to imply that it will be easy or that it will work perfectly. But Israel is resolved now because of Hamas' attack and they won't let "perfect" be the enemy of "good enough".

Gaza hasn't been occupied since the early 2000s. The blockade has been weakened several times in the intervening years. It can be tightened. It can have more resources put towards it. It can be more draconian, it can be more unfair. It will further impoverish Palestinians, it won't stop every weapon or dual-use item, but it doesn't have to - it will still be worthwhile to Israel to clamp down just to reduce the chance of violence against Israelis. I do expect massive Palestinian casualties, not just from the violence needed to tighten the blockade, but also from the civilian catastrophe that will follow a much tighter blockade.

Have you read anything about the failed intelligence efforts in the part of the Israelis, this shouldn't have been allowed to happen, I have seen reports the Egypt warning Israel the day before and that some Israeli groups warned the govt aswellm

Honestly I hate this line of reasoning. Israel made an intelligence mistake, so it's their fault they suffered a terrorist attack?

The same thing happened with 9/11 - yes you can find reports from 2000/early 2001 that says an attack of that manner might happen. What you're not seeing it that these reports are a few of a stream of 1000s of similar reports. It's not possible even for a hugely resourced defense system to treat every threat as 100% certain. Defense is already a massive burden for Israeli society. They'll learn from mistakes made in the lead up to Oct. 7, they'll give even more resources to defense, but it's not even possible them to perfectly defend themselves against enemies on several fronts, some of which have genocidal intentions and nothing to lose.

The killing seems like it was spontaneous rather than planned

This is conspiracy thinking. Hundreds of militants conducted a coordinated attack dozens of civilian and military targets, using complex tactics, drones, paramotors, etc.

So the real counter is why do ground level Palestinian fighters hate Israel so much, and how can the cycle of violence be ended?

Israel does not have to accept terror attacks against itself until such time as Palestinians feel placated.

Many Palestinians bear extreme hatred towards Israelis because of Israel's policies. But many Palestinians want a one-state solution for their side, regardless of how Israel conducts itself. And many Palestinians hate Jews, full stop.

If you have a totalizing view of what Israelis owe Palestinians, then no amount of concessions will ever seem like enough unless Israel just ceases to exist (and the Jews of Israel go where exactly?).

If Palestinians were given true statehood over Gaza, the West Bank, and some parts of East Jerusalem today, their politics would still almost certainly be defined by violent opposition to Israel.

For all these reasons, Israel cares more about Palestinians' military capabilities than their opinions. This isn't some uniquely callous view held by Israelis, but a very normal human reaction to violent threats.

Continued bombing and occupation of Gaza is guaranteed to not achieve an end to the violence.

The goal of the current conflict isn't to end all threat of violence. No plausible solution is going to do that.

Hamas' leadership is going to be put in the ground. It's experienced fighting units will be broken up. It's ability to bring weapons into Gaza will be further limited (but never perfectly controlled). It's ability to cross the border again will be largely broken (but never perfectly stopped). Palestinians will face such an extreme humanitarian disaster that resources will have to be diverted from military purposes to civilian purposes.

I'm not cheering any of this. It's terrible. It's going to kill thousands of Palestinians and ruin the lives of thousands more. But it will plausibly make an Oct. 7-style attack on Israel much less likely.

I have learned that sharing things without comment will lead people to believe that my position is proven entirely by the thing I shared and the falsity means my entire position can be dismissed.

Is that a fair comment?

I don't want to dismiss your opinion, not least because of a single article.

But it's hard to feel as though someone is arguing in good faith when their own method for reading about the subject seems profoundly misguided. It gives the impression that, as long as a source says something you want to agree with, you'll give it credence.

I'm not blanket pro-Israel, but I think I have more empathy for their position than some other people in this thread. Since I know I have this inclination, I try to be careful with what I read. I could just read the Jerusalem Post, listen to Bari Weiss, and hang around on subreddits that share damaging one-off stories about how evil Hamas is. This would equip me with 1000 superficial arguments to support my initial thinking and it would greatly minimize my cognitive dissonance. But I know this approach would take me further from the truth, so I try to read widely with an emphasis on more neutral and professional journalism, I seek out the most articulate proponents of alternative views, etc.

[CaptainFritz28]

We can all be wrong about things.

I think it is only in being willing to recognise where we are wrong that we can learn

I couldn't agree more, and I very much share Bert's curiosity regarding what lesson you have taken

I have learned that sharing things without comment will lead people to believe that my position is proven entirely by the thing I shared and the falsity means my entire position can be dismissed.

Is that a fair comment?

Somewhat... I would say sharing evidence that isn't qualified to be evidence will lead people to believe that you have built your position on faulty evidence, even if you have other evidence. This is because it eliminates all credibility you have, which is something that must be built up over the course of debate. I would say the best thing to do then is to find evidence which is strong, credible, and also supports your point to regain that credibility, or at least use valid logic to defend the evidence you have presented - if you cannot, then rethink your position. If you can, by all means do so.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

Maybe we could start a new politics thread on this topic, which in my view is objectively more important than the current Israel-Palestine conflict.

[CaptainFritz28]

So the real counter is why do ground level Palestinian fighters hate Israel so much, and how can the cycle of violence be ended?

I don't think those of us in the Secular West truly understand the effect one's religious convictions have on their actions. This is not something exclusive to Palestinians. Over the years it has been exemplified through various wars begun unprovoked against Israel (1948, 1967, 1973). No, this is a matter of religious zealotry on the part of violent Islamists. Am I saying that all Muslims wish death to Israel? No. But I AM saying that many do, enough to begin wars and fund terrorism.

And yet, this is not even exclusive to the Middle East. Look at Nazi Germany. Why did they do what they did to Jews? Put simply, anti-semitism. Around this time, many in the rest of the world weren't willing to stop them. Why? Not because they didn't know. They chose to ignore what info they had about the holocaust. Again, simply because of anti-semitism.

Israel has been the subject of the oppression of just about every empire that spanned near them and every country that neighbors them for millenia. Hamas is just one instance of that. The hate for Israel fundamentally boils down to evil and anti-semitic action.

I'll make another post about how to solve the perpetual cycle of violence, I can't spend so much time on this.

[CaptainFritz28]

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

Maybe we could start a new politics thread on this topic, which in my view is objectively more important than the current Israel-Palestine conflict.

Just because it isn't in a majority of media doesn't mean it isn't a war, no? Perhaps it should be another thread, but I think we've said just about all there is to say on the Israel-Palestine conflict, by now we are beginning to go in circles. This thread transitioned from Ukraine to Israel, surely it can go from Israel to Sudan?

[Octavious]

We can all be wrong about things.

I think it is only in being willing to recognise where we are wrong that we can learn

I couldn't agree more, and I very much share Bert's curiosity regarding what lesson you have taken

I have learned that sharing things without comment will lead people to believe that my position is proven entirely by the thing I shared and the falsity means my entire position can be dismissed.

Is that a fair comment?

And the very next post...

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

I choose to believe that this was an intentional piece of self depricating comedy gold, for which I salute you, but it does leave us without a serious answer to the question

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I couldn't agree more, and I very much share Bert's curiosity regarding what lesson you have taken

I have learned that sharing things without comment will lead people to believe that my position is proven entirely by the thing I shared and the falsity means my entire position can be dismissed.

Is that a fair comment?

And the very next post...

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

I choose to believe that this was an intentional piece of self depricating comedy gold, for which I salute you, but it does leave us without a serious answer to the question

We should all band together to buy orathaic a subscription to some actual journalism for Christmas.

[orathaic]

Meanwhile in Sudan: https://x.com/DrKarimWafa/status/1729502247208304987?s=20

Maybe we could start a new politics thread on this topic, which in my view is objectively more important than the current Israel-Palestine conflict.

We could, but this thread is the "war, what is it good for" thread, which iirc, was about Russia invading Ukraine, before it became about Israel/Palestine.

Not sure another thread will get anywhere near the amount of attention.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I'm curious how the more Israel-skeptic folks in this thread view the breakdown of the ceasefire this week.

I'm inclined to believe reporting that suggests Hamas broke the ceasefire unilaterally. If that's the case, I'm really struggling to think of a charitable interpretation for their actions.

[orathaic]

I haven't seen anything about it.

What about the US growing a spine and questioning its unlimited support for Israel?
https://youtu.be/Tmq8Tx6qApw

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I haven't seen anything about it.

What about the US growing a spine and questioning its unlimited support for Israel?
https://youtu.be/Tmq8Tx6qApw

You haven't heard anything about the ceasefire ending? That seems like really big news...

And I do so wish you would share actual sources, I have no idea how much stock to put in a random YouTuber.

But in general, I would be extremely supportive of the US and other western nations trying to influence Israel in a positive direction. Any economic or military support for Israel should absolutely be predicated on an end to illegal settlements and the existence of a robust aid corridor into Gaza. War crimes on both sides need to be documented and punished. I'm not, however, especially hopeful these things will happen.

Pressuring Israel isn't the only thing the international community should be doing though: Iran deserves to be further isolated for its role in Oct. 7; Palestinian refugees need a place to go and more internationally-sourced money to support them; and a longer-team peace plan might need to be more-or-less imposed by the US and other allies, which would need to come with security guarantees for Israelis and Palestinians. I'm also not hopeful these things will happen.

[Octavious]

From what I've read there were various low level ceasefire violations. But frankly there always are to some extent, especially when dealing with an organisation like Hamas that doesn't have the most disciplined rank and file.

The chief reason for the ceasefire collapse is reportedly Hamas refusing to return the last of the live women hostages, offering instead the return of other people they hold. The chances are that this may well be because these particular women were not well treated, and having the released hostages spitting venom would be something of PR disaster. So much easier when you're releasing the ones held in relative comfort, or who are scared enough about the harm that may befall those still in captivity that they won't say anything too damming.

But it has always been a near certainty that the ceasefire would end sooner or later. Israel cannot negotiate peace with Hamas. They can't allow the organisation as it exists now to survive. Giving them a beating isn't enough. They need to be defeated to the extent that at the very least they want peace more than they want to attack Israel for the foreseeable future.

The USA has exerted massive influence in the region throughout the conflict. This is why it remains a very localised issue. They have done more to limit the conflict than any other nation. Making an utterly ineffective speech about peace, love, and restraint that is favoured by virtue signalling European leaders does not a backbone make

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

The USA has exerted massive influence in the region throughout the conflict. This is why it remains a very localised issue. They have done more to limit the conflict than any other nation. Making an utterly ineffective speech about peace, love, and restraint that is favoured by virtue signalling European leaders does not a backbone make

I agree with this entirely. The US is risking its soldiers lives and spending hundreds of millions to successfully prevent a regional conflict. Macron, Trudeau, etc., embarrass themselves when they make grandiose demands while bringing *nothing* to the table.

But I still think the US has a moral obligation to put some additional guardrails on Israel's war-time policies and I wonder if you agree?

Settlement-related violence has ramped up since Oct. 7. There is something like mutual hostage taking at this point. Israel's fairly extreme policies bar most aid channels for Gazan civilians and that seems hard to countenance.

The US itself pays a price for tacitly condoning these particular actions by Israel. It hurts Biden's appeal among a key group of Democrats. It hurts the US' relationship with other key allies. And these actions are probably bad for Israel in the long-run, which ultimately harms the US' interests in the region.

[orathaic]

I haven't seen anything about it.

What about the US growing a spine and questioning its unlimited support for Israel?
https://youtu.be/Tmq8Tx6qApw

You haven't heard anything about the ceasefire ending? That seems like really big news...

No, i am aware superficially that a ceasefire happened and ended, but I am not aware of any of the details.

[orathaic]

I can't see how this is not what Jamie predicted:

https://www.thejournal.ie/israeli-troops-gaza-un-khan-yunis-6240561-Dec2023/

IDF moving south, tells Gazans to move, nowhere left to go?

Ethnic cleansing by any other name. They might not be 'moving everyone into a grave' but removing them from their homes is pretty much the definition of ethnic cleansing.

[Octavious]

I can't see how this is not what Jamie predicted:

https://www.thejournal.ie/israeli-troops-gaza-un-khan-yunis-6240561-Dec2023/

IDF moving south, tells Gazans to move, nowhere left to go?

Ethnic cleansing by any other name. They might not be 'moving everyone into a grave' but removing them from their homes is pretty much the definition of ethnic cleansing.

No it isn't. Aside from the fact that genocide (which is what Jamie repeatedly and falsely claimed) is a million miles away from eviction, do you genuinely believe that at the end of all this Gaza won't remain a Palestinian territory with millions of Palestinians living in it? Because if you believe it will then there's clearly no ethnic cleansing, and if you believe it won't then you need to present some pretty serious evidence to be taken seriously

[orathaic]

Well the only evidence I have so far is the removal of people from their homes, the destruction of those homes, and the illegal settlements in the West Bank (along with previously removed illegal settlements in Gaza).

So given the history and the current evidence, I am making the claim that this is possible. I think any reasonable person would come to the same conclusion.

Now if that is currently government policy, the government may collapse before it can implement that particular policy. And if it is not the policy of the current government, it is possible that the government will be replaced by a hard line alternative which advocates for this (whether in an election or just by gaining enough support within the parliament).

None of this is proof. I'm not even making a prediction. I am saying it is clearly possible, and there are multiple routes it could end up happening.

So I don't see why you would default to assuming Gazans will live there after the IDF pulls out (when many no longer have homes, or the resources to rebuild those homes).

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

So I don't see why you would default to assuming Gazans will live there after the IDF pulls out (when many no longer have homes, or the resources to rebuild those homes).

This is a reasonable default assumption. It is wildly implausible that hundreds of thousands of Gazans will be permanently displaced or killed. If you think such an ethnic cleansing is "possible", the burden of proof rests with you to provide extraordinary evidence to support this extraordinary claim.

The housing stock is greatly degraded, but most homes are still there and many will be rebuilt.