Election Countdown Tracker

[flash2015]

Party registration is a big thing in the US since it is used to determine which election primary you can vote in. At least in NY, you choose your party registration when you apply for a driver's licence. Most people are registered with one of the two major parties.

I am not sure it is a good idea as well to release party registration information...but pre-election voting was not a big deal in past elections.

[Randomizer]

How on earth does data on returned mail ballots by party registration get around the exit polling rules?

It is the difference between federal law regarding exit polls and state laws regarding what information can be released as public information. The mailed in ballots only give public registration information and not votes or opinions of voters on the contents. The mail in ballots maybe invalidated still before counting.

[orathaic]

Party registration is a big thing in the US since it is used to determine which election primary you can vote in. At least in NY, you choose your party registration when you apply for a driver's licence. Most people are registered with one of the two major parties.

This still seems weird to me, I have in the past been tempted to join the green or Labour parties, but never actually done it. And like most people in this country, I don't have a say in 'primaries', this just isn't a big deal. With three parties currently making up the govt, and at least 4 parties forming the opposition, being able to choose one party leader (depending on internal party rules on how they elect their leader) isn't so big a deal.

It is basically, private club get together and write a policy doc/select a leader (primary) , then go to the public and ask for their vote(s) (General election). And the selection of a leader doesn't have to happen before the GE, unless within the party there is a vote of no confidence... Or - like in the UK - the leader loses a referendum on Brexit which they opposed. And just like the UK we don't need to have a GE to change our head of government. The party in charge can use their internal rules to replace their leader without asking the public.)

I keep saying internal rules. And this is the point. Parties are not public bodies. In China the CCP is the only party, it makes the laws and the party rules, so they effectively become one and the same. The US feels much closer to China on this than to most European style democracies. Does the integration of the two parties into public life not make competitiveness (with third parties) a problem?

[orathaic]

It also seems like, with your party registered and set for life, most parties choose to fight to suppress their opposition's vote, and enhance their own, rather than winning over voters. Maybe the tiny % of independent are enough to swing most elections...

[flash2015]

Day 1379 Of The President SuperSpreader Administration
Time To Election: 3 days, 11 hours

Current FiveThirtyEight Data

President SuperSpreader approval rating: 43.6% Approve 52.9% Disapprove (-9.3%)
National Polls: Sleepy Joe 52.0% President SuperSpreader 43.2% (Sleepy Joe +8.8%)
Based on current polling FiveThirtyEight currently believes Sleepy Joe is favoured to win (Sleepy Joe 89 out of 100, President SuperSpreader is 10 out of 100 and 1 out of 100 chance of a tie)

2020 vs 2016 From RealClearPolitics

Sleepy Joe vs Crooked Hillary

National Polls: Sleepy Joe +5.5% (their average is Sleepy Joe +7.8% vs FiveThirtyEights weighted average of +8.8%)
Favourability rating: Sleepy Joe +14.0% (total favourability +19.4%)
Battleground States: Sleepy Joe +1.5% (Sleepy Joe up +3.1% against President SuperSpreader)

We are down to the final days now. President SuperSpreader is frantically cros-crossing the country doing several rallies each day to try and eek out another win. But even with this, the Sleepy Joe oil/fracking statements and with the Hunter Biden laptop the polls don't appear to have moved much. Sleepy Joe still has a big polling lead.

Early voting turnout has truly been massive. As of today almost 85M have already voted (around 61% of 2016 presidential election). In Texas and Hawaii total votes are already over 100% of the 2016 turnout. Before election day, many more states may also go over their 2016 turnout or get very close to it (Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, North Carolina, Montana, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Oregon are all 80%+). The final turnout is going to be truly massive (at least comparatively speaking), perhaps the best since the early 1960s.

Who is going to win? The polling suggests a big win for Sleepy Joe. Large turnout traditionally has suggested a democrat advantage too. Given the especially large turnout in Texas, could this be the year it goes blue? Young people are also turning out in much larger numbers than 2016 which is usually also a positive sign for democrats. After suffering major 2016 PTSD, democrats (like Pelosi) are now finally openly indicating that they think Biden will win...though in general they are still very nervous.

On the flipside, Republicans point to the fact that democratic advantages in early voting are coming down as we get closer to election day. Republicans also point to new voter registration advantages...and the fact that they continued to go door-to-door during the pandemic to encourage turnout while democrats did not. And again the races in the swing states are still much closer than the overall Sleepy Joe polling advantage. Many Republicans believe that not only will President SuperSpreader win, but will win with a massive landslide, taking back the House as well.

Given the big discrepancy between the two sides on how the election will go, one side will likely be hit hard when the reality truck comes through next Tuesday, probably more so President SuperSpreader supporters if Sleepy Joe wins as they are so confident in a big victory (though the Democrat party would probably go into internal civil war if they lose). Realistically, given the current polling, the path to a President SuperSpreader victory is very narrow. He needs to keep Pennsylvania (probably lose WI and MI) and not lose anything else...or potentially lose perhaps Arizona too but make an unlikely pickup in NH/Nevada to compensate.

But again, the polling is against President SuperSpreader. He needs a consistent polling error across many states for this unlikely victory to happen. Even in 2016 where the polls were biased to Crooked Hillary overall by about 1-2%, the per state poll errors were all over the place. If President SuperSpreader can pull it off though it could be the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey.

Less than four days to election day. It just can't come soon enough.