That Impeachment Thread

[Randomizer]

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/27/politics ... index.html

Trump throws Giuliani under the bus by saying that he never ordered him to go to Ukraine and do what he did. Just another case where Trump didn't know what was happening, but at least he didn't deny knowing him like some others.

[orathaic]

Looks like Trump is going to get an impeachment trail, and the republicans will back him up?

Will this hurt them come November? Will that fear be enough to have him impeached?

[TrPrado]

He'll probably be impeached. It's essentially just an indictment decided by a simple majority of the House. The real sticking point is conviction, which requires 2/3 of the Senate. At this point, I haven't the foggiest idea who, politically, would be helped or hurt by impeachment going through. There's a lot of rhetoric going both ways on it.

I can, however, guarantee the Senate isn't going to convict him. Doing so more than guarantees Democratic victory. Filing for the election has already begun, and in some states the filing for participation in the primary is already over, and the only people running against Trump from the Republican Party are no names without an audience, especially the audience the Democratic candidates have. If they haven't asked him to resign by now or pushed other big name Republicans to run, then that means the Republican Senators are going to stick with the idea that Trump didn't commit a crime and push that the Ukraine aid wasn't tied to the investigation of Hunter Biden. And they probably assume they'll be fine doing that.

[Randomizer]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/tru ... 01099.html

There used to be the joke about we're going to have a fair trial before the hanging. Now it's going to be we're going to have a short impeachment trial before letting Trump off the hook. McConnell is coordinating with Trump on what to do and has already announced that the vote will come when the Republican whip has counted enough no votes.

The sad part is back for the Clinton impeachment, these are the same senators that condemned Clinton for a less serious offense.

[Crazy Anglican]

Unfortunately, I think both sides are going to try to use this for gain in the upcoming election. For the Dems they are hoping to look like they are "doing something" about Trump, and will come out of it with the attitude "Hey we tried to get rid of him" get out and vote against him and help us get enough votes to do it.

For the Republicans it will be playing to their base with the fear that the Dems are trying to subvert the will of the people (namely said base) and using the fear to get their own out to vote.

[Randomizer]

Republican senators McConnell and Graham made a major mistake in publicly declaring their loyalty to Trump and that it's going to be a sham impeachment trial. While it gains the Trump loyal voters, they now will lose swing voters with sound bite clips for campaign commercials emphasizing that they have no plans to uphold their oaths as impartial senators hearing evidence.

The Democrats now can use this as an election issue to drive out all Republicans as not doing their constitutional duties and the need to take back the government to Make America Great Again as our Founding Fathers wanted it.

[TrPrado]

The strong-arm standoff of Pelosi withholding the articles of impeachment until McConnell sets fair trial terms (and the strategy I'm assuming he'll take in just waiting it out) is way more interesting to talk about than the actual impeachment. No strong procedure, no precedent given the lack of presidential impeachments.

[Crazy Anglican]

Still impeachment was designed as a way for the legislature to check executive power. If it does in fact become a tool for influencing votes in an upcoming election then both sides will routinely use it as such. That puts the Congress in an awfully powerful position much like was feared in the Johnson impeachment.

[Randomizer]

Congress already weakened the Special Prosecutor law so that they couldn't appoint one after 4 years of investigating Clinton over a single money losing real estate investment finally ended looking at a sex scandal. Trump dodged the rain of bullets there when the Mueller report didn't look at any of his questionable real estate deals, tax evasions, and sex scandals.

Flipping a Florida property to a Russian businessman after a few days for $40 million profit as money laundering and questions on whether the purchase money was even his.

Deutsche Bank money laundering investigation.

Deutsche Bank loan forgiveness and $50 million transferred to a Trump shell company as a new loan that hasn't been paid any interest and/or principal instead of paying capital gains taxes.

Trump Company New York properties not reporting rental income from antennas on state corporate tax returns. Bank fraud in apply for loans listing hire incomes and lower vacancies for buildings compared to tax returns in the same period.

Payments to two women to cover up affairs during the 2016 presidential campaign.

Hiring of illegal aliens to work at Trump properties. Polish construction workers for building in New York. Maids and drivers at the resorts and son's hunting lodge.

[Crazy Anglican]

I'm certainly not in favor of Trump. I am one of those swing voters the Dems need. Last Presidential election I voted Libertarian for the first time ever. So I am making no argument in support of Trump. Nixon lost his office for much less.

I am more concerned with the appearance that this is just upping the partisan politics game. We know Trump will not lose his office based on this, but this was a big chance for the Democrats to give the Republicans no choice but to go along. If they had come about it as "Hey this is a corrupt politician and we BOTH have everything to gain by working together to kick him out of office." I think that would have been much better for them. That would have taken more time to set up though. Admittedly that's a two edge sword. I am seeing no inclination on either side to work together for the betterment of the country. Both parties are at their best when policing themselves and their opposition, not merely the latter.

That happened with Nixon. Many of the Republicans were voting in favor of starting the impeachment process. Even Nixon's scandal was less than what Trump is accused of. The problem, as I see it, is that both sides are mired in an all or nothing mentality that makes cooperation unlikely. So it seems we have both sides pandering to their base ("Trump's Great"ers and Trump Haters) and Both sides are losing a golden opportunity to actually look like they are seriously trying to clean up this mess.

Instead we have Pelosi hanging on to the articles of Impeachment until McConnell sets fair trial procedures for a trial he has no real desire to have? It's a farce, it is gridlock in microcosm. How can a fair and rational judgement be anything other than "You're both screwed". All you have to do to make your opposition look like intolerant jerks is to set demands you know they can never agree to and pump up the rhetoric to a level that they will look like they are capitulating if they agree to any of it. Both sides have become very good at that.

The evidence for this is that they cannot get it together enough to impeach Trump, who even a fair number of Republicans hated going into this. If you cannot impeach a guy who had approval ratings as abyssmally low as Trump has had; it isn't simply because the one party is a bunch of boot licking sycophants. It's because neither party sees anything to gain in working with the other.

No US President has been more worthy of removal from office than Trump, but you have to ask yourself (beyond simply demonizing the opposition) Why can't the government work as it should in a situation that should be a slam dunk?

[Randomizer]

Democrats have nothing to gain from working with the Republicans in control of the Senate. McConnell has already said that if the Democrats retake the presidency, he will only consider judicial nominations in the first year of a 4 year term. No mention of voting on all the bills that piled up waiting for consideration.

You are going to see an all out push to make an all Democrat government. This may be a generational shift back to post Watergate to wipe out all the Republicans that ever supported Trump.

[Crazy Anglican]

....And that's what you should see every election, on both sides. There should be an all out push to get as many people in position as possible who agree with you. Then reality should set in after the election and everyone sit down to get about the business of actually running the government. That takes a mentality where it is possible and beneficial to reach across the aisle for support of good ideas.
As it stands now, the creeps in both parties are not held accountable because doing so may make one party look worse to their base. That is simply not how things should work.

[CommanderByron]

#CongressionalTermLimits
#EliminateGerryMandering
#SingleTransferrableVote
#SupremeCourtTerms

[orathaic]

Supreme Court terms? Is that a normal thing, anywhere in the world?

I believe Judicial appointments are meant to be permanent, so judges are independent, ie not at the whim of the current govt and thus free from worrying about re-appointment.

Maybe you could set a limited 10 year single term. Thus getting some of the benefits of both worlds. Courts should be immune from political influence as possible.

[MajorMitchell]

I've just read two books critical of Trumptoad, "Siege" by Michael Wolff & "A Warning" by Anonymous, A Senior Trump Administration Official. In the second book the author discusses the ways Trumptoad might be removed from Office, and makes a compelling argument that the "best" way for Trumptoad to be removed is not by impeachment but by electoral defeat in November 2020.
A crude summary of the argument is that only an election defeat will have genuine, or sufficient legitimacy. Impeachment would probably be bitterly disputed by Trumptoad and his hardcore (albeit minority) base.
An election defeat would be much harder to dispute, plus the author makes the point that the voters must take responsibility in setting the USA on a path to recovery.
As an aside, I have been a Trumptoad critic, but I hadn't realised just how bad a President Trumptoad actually is. On just one criteria, USA's Government debt, Trump is a total disaster. Trumptoad promised to eliminate Government debt in his election campaign, now most people probably realised that was an impossible to deliver promise, but his supporters probably expected some reduction, however the annual deficits have increased significantly under Trump.
Trumptoad is definitely not making the USA great again, he's setting the USA into terminal decline. A second term for Trumptoad might tip the USA into the abyss, the global consequences are rather shocking to contemplate.
Another point is that the Republicans need to realise just how much damage he is doing to their Party and it's future. Going along with Trump is a very dangerous path for the Republicans (as well as the rest of us)

[Octavious]

The best way to remove Trump may be in an election rather than an impeachment process that relies upon a score of Republican senators turning against their own party?

Gosh... with deep insights like that the book must be a best seller.

Trump is not a good president, but there's no terminal decline and no abyss. Just like there wasn't after he won the last election. Things will largely tick along much the same as before.

[Randomizer]

Trump has already stated and this may be one of the few true things he has said that he won't accept an election where he loses as legitimate. He would challenge the results as due to fake votes bussed in to the states where he loses. No evidence of voting irregularities are needed for his claims.

We would see the first time a president refusing to leave office. We would have two months where the current government would be defying the future government and debates of who is in charge and the legitimacy of government orders.

[MajorMitchell]

Dear Dipbro Octavious, you are criticising a book based on my "crude summary" of one part of that book which I would diplomatically suggest is singularly unfair to it's author. Criticise me for my inability in a thread post to provide an accurate and complete representation of it's contents, or better yet, borrow a copy and read it yourself, then make your criticisms /assessment. I would recommend in particular, chapter 8- "We the Electorate".
I deliberately described my description of part of the book as a "crude summary" to make it obvious that I couldn't do justice to the author's propositions in my post.
It does discuss the potential pushback by Trumptoad​ and his hardcore supporters to an election defeat as well as an impeachment. Again this is a crude representation, part of the suggested reasons for an election defeat being a better outcome is about ownership.. an impeachment is a process of Washington, the political system, whereas an election defeat involves "the people" whom the founding fathers of the Constitution of the USA clearly saw as the ultimate authority (as I understand the history of the nation founded by those wascally webellious North American colonies).
I would recommend the book to anyone interested in this stuff, but I'd suggest borrowing it if possible to avoid the expense of purchasing it, although the author does give a commitment that profits from it's sales will not be used for the author's personal enrichment, they will be donated to what I will, again crudely describe as "good causes".

[MajorMitchell]

@Randomiser, I would suggest that the default position with regard to anything that Trumptoad states, tweets etc is that it is a falsehood, that he will flip-flop, fail to follow through effectively. That's his track record.
I suspect that Trumptoad would in many ways see an election defeat as an outcome not altogether undesirable, it would absolve him from actually having to deliver on his promises and give him scapegoats to take the blame for his failures. It would fit his narrative "I tried, but everyone except my supporters conspired against me"/ "I was the greatest POTUS ever, but was unfairly denied my opportunity to MAGA"
I think that there is a lot Trumptoad likes about being POTUS, but that there is a hell of a lot more that Trumptoad really dislikes about being POTUS... So an early exit after one term where he keeps his POTUS pension might have significant appeal to the lazy, ignorant, narcissistic, dishonest, delusional bully that many regard Trumptoad to be, and who are most probably correct.

[Randomizer]

@MajorMitchell

Trump lies is default, but on very rare occasions he throws in a truth.

Three years after the election and Trump is still claiming winning the popular vote which he lost. Every documented case of election fraud has been by Republicans from absentee ballots in North Carolina to illegal alien voting in California. So his total is mostly likely even lower than reported.

The last thing Trump wants to do is leave office after stirring up so many criminal investigations. He and his family dodged criminal charges with his fake charity, but New York state is looking at tax evasion and bank fraud, Trump's blocking release of money laundering information, ICE isn't going after Trump companies for hiring illegal aliens, ….

At his age, any jail sentence would probably see him die there. It would take a presidential pardon to help him at this point and he's considered pardoning himself.