Elon Musk plans US - UK war in 2025

[CaptainFritz28]

I know that it's possible (especially given recent assassination attempts), and I agree that Trump is too old, I just think it's funny that people like MM called it ridiculous to say such things about Biden and are now saying the exact same thing when the tables are turned.

[Octavious]

Looking past the conspiracy thinking and general weirdness in MM's posts, he makes at least a couple good point about the fragility of Trump's presidency.

While Trump won the election decisively, his plans for immigration, trade, etc., will probably have a negative impact on the US economy. The pain will be felt unevenly. It will be interesting to see whether Republican lawmakers whose key constituents are harmed by these policies remain loyal to the President.

Biden really warped expectations about how old is too old. Trump is too old. He's likely to survive his term in office, but if he didn't it would not be totally shocking. He will almost certainly suffer at least some degree Biden-esque mental and physical decline. This really could cede the top job to VP Vance at some point.

I can see Trump trying the same trick with immigration as what seemed to work with abortion. See if he can make it a State issue. Crack down on illegals and allow individual States to issue whatever work visas they want with full citizenship granted if you are resident of that particular State for x number of years. It's been interesting to see Musk sounding out public reaction to the idea of increased professional immigration. One assumes there is extensive polling going on to get a good feel for the public mood, and they will act appropriately.

Trade may be more difficult, but there's usually enough background noise to hide a lot of the impact of your policies behind. Much like no one really has the foggiest idea how much impact Brexit had on the economy. Time will tell.

As for Trump's ability to finish his term... probably. I imagine the idea of being a one term president irritated him immensely, and now he's got the 2nd term his motivation may not be as strong. Who knows? As long as he's enjoying the job he will likely carry on. If age starts to tone him down... that may well be an improvement

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I can see Trump trying the same trick with immigration as what seemed to work with abortion. See if he can make it a State issue. Crack down on illegals and allow individual States to issue whatever work visas they want with full citizenship granted if you are resident of that particular State for x number of years. It's been interesting to see Musk sounding out public reaction to the idea of increased professional immigration. One assumes there is extensive polling going on to get a good feel for the public mood, and they will act appropriately.

Interesting but probably impossible. The constitution requires "a uniform Rule of Naturalization" that would almost certainly be violated by differing state-level rules, even if those rules are then rubber stamped by the federal government. I can't imagine this administration will achieve constitutional amendments. Maybe there's something I'm missing here...

Trade may be more difficult, but there's usually enough background noise to hide a lot of the impact of your policies behind. Much like no one really has the foggiest idea how much impact Brexit had on the economy. Time will tell.

Specific industries / regions will absolutley know when they're hurt by trade restrictions even if the long-term aggregate impact on the whole economy is harder to pin down. The loudest anti-Brexit voices (e.g., financial services) knew where their bread was buttered.

In the North American context, previous US trade disputes with Canada reliably hurt very identifiable US groups, partly because US trade with Canada is geographically concentrated, and partly because Canada's approach to trade retaliation intentionally targets specific US imports on the basis of their likely political impact (e.g., going after industries in swing states).

[Octavious]

If the rule applies to all States does it not count as uniform? Perhaps not.

Bloody constitutions are a pain in the backside. I don't know why they're so popular across the world. The long dead trying to control the lives of the living seems to be a poor basis for a system of government

[Jamiet99uk]

Trump wants to buy Greenland, invade Panama, and re-name the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile Los Angeles is literally on fire yet Trump also promises to increase the burning of fossil fuels.

What a stupid fat cunt.

[Octavious]

I don't see how what the Yanks choose to call the Gulf of Mexico is relevant to anyone but the Yanks. The British and the French have had different names for the English Channel forever and it does no harm to anyone. It's fine. It's a complete non issue.

Trump wanting to buy Greenland is also fine, and something various American Presidents have wanted over the years. Greenland is rather important to western security, and Denmark's increasingly dubious control over it is a far bigger concern than anything Trump can dream up. An independent pro-China Greenland (which is a real possibility) would be extremely problematic.

Trump wanting to invade Panama is simply a lie. He doesn't.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Trump has now clarified that he wiill use economic pressure to annex Canada.

I dont care of this is some demented "bargaining tactic". Trump apologists and supporters are now my literal enemies. They're supporting someone who either has real intentions to destroy my country, or who is willing to play a childish game that is already profoundly damaging to my economic interests.

[Octavious]

Has he really? I find the reporting on anything Trump says to be rather poor. Most of it just has a couple of words within quotation or small clips out of context, and a lot is deliberately misleading. I'm not saying he didn't, just that I'll need to see a decent article or not overly edited clip before I take it as read, and I've not seen that yet.

Naturally if the Yanks make a genuinely aggressive move against one of the great nations of His Majesty I'd fully support decisive retaliation from the rest of the civilised world... maybe even invite France. We really don't want to have to level Washington again... but needs must.

Again, this is not going to happen. But I stand by the principle.

Not wishing to dip my toe too far into whataboutism, but we're still within living memory of when Canada pinched Newfoundland on the back of an extremely dodgy referendum. We are not without historical precedent for these kind of shenanigans

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Oct, your approach to Trump is worse than Jamie's lol. It is possible to find direct quotes about what Trump has said. Read them before you knee-jerk defend his position.

This is nothing like the Newfoundland "pinch".

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Here's some relevant reporting from a centre right Canadian paper: https://financialpost.com/news/economy/trump-threatens-economic-force-canada-51st-state

This isn't Trump derangement syndrome. What Trump himself is saying is absolutely unacceptable.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Not wishing to dip my toe too far into whataboutism, but we're still within living memory of when Canada pinched Newfoundland on the back of an extremely dodgy referendum. We are not without historical precedent for these kind of shenanigans

On further reflection this actually makes me mad.

You were obviously just grasping for whatever straws served the narrow purpose of defending Trump's position on something you hadn't even read.

The UK itself initiated the Newfoundland and Labrador referendum because it wanted to get rid of its financial obligations to that region and the stated preference of British politicians at the time was that the region join Canada (https://www.heritage.nf.ca/articles/politics/british-policy-newfoundland.php?).

[Octavious]

On further reflection this actually makes me mad.

You were obviously just grasping for whatever straws served the narrow purpose of defending Trump's position on something you hadn't even read.

Nah, a good chunk of the family comes from Newfie. In terms of Americas based relatives I know of almost all are from there (and a smattering from Atlanta in the US of all places). Absolutely the UK government at the time we're complicit in this outrageous turn of events, but that did nothing to mitigate the impact on the local population. Having to drive on the wrong side of the road and French language signs imposed on you being hard to swallow for any Brits.

I've not been to Newfie for a long old time, but when I was there back around the turn of the millennium I'd never seen a place with quite so many British flags. It was also the first time I'd stood up for God Save the Queen, which was played at the end of a reenactment of a battle with the French. I dare say that a lot of this has passed into distant memory now, as those alive at the time are now a small minority... but such is the way of things. Quite a lot of Texans are reportedly rather proud of being Yanks

[Octavious]

As for defending Trump, I wasn't aware that I had. It is very clear that we live in a world in which news media standards fall rather short of where we want them to be. Whether this is a new development or whether it was ever thus but not quite as obvious I'm not sure, but it is real. And it's not just reporting on Trump, it's literally everything. Whenever you encounter a story about a reality that you happen to be a part of the gap between the truth and the report is astounding. So yeah, my new year's resolution is whenever I hear a political news report that sounds a bit odd (or in this case very odd) I'm not going to believe it until I've seen some pretty convincing evidence.

Your link, by the way, contained an interview with the Principle Council of MAAW Law in Toronto who had a good old chuckle, said it was a lot of blustery, and people were running around with their hair on fire and in danger of overreacting. I completely agree with the interview in your link

[Octavious]

In case you're interested (and I know you're not, but you've given me the opportunity to natter about Newfie so you're stuck with it) the founding father of the Newfie branch of the family was Thomas Youden who moved over there to Bull Cove a little over 200 years back

[Jamiet99uk]

In case you're interested (and I know you're not, but you've given me the opportunity to natter about Newfie so you're stuck with it) the founding father of the Newfie branch of the family was Thomas Youden who moved over there to Bull Cove a little over 200 years back

Uh... so what?

You really are the king of irrelevant shit.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Trump isn't actually going to annex Canada but that's not the point. The outrageous thing is that he actually said he would and that it's part of his justification for what could be massively damaging tariffs and other economic sanctions.

That you don't believe this (?) because you don't believe the media seems like a bad way to get informed about things — as is jumping up and down at every sensational headline.

This is all I believe about Trump's ill intentions towards Canada and I still view them as outrageous, moronic, without modern historical precedent, and profoundly embarassing for Americans. Do you think such rhetoric is normal, justified, wise or strategic? If not, why continuously go to bat saying "but it won't happen" as though the threat itself isn't hugely problematic.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

It's as though a toddler pointed a loaded gun at me, but many of the adults around reacted by saying "so cute, doesn't he have so much personality" or "don't worry, we're pretty sure he doesn't know how to turn off the safety". Yeah I might not get shot, but like what the fuck let's avoid his situation in the first place, or at least condemn it when it happens

[CaptainFritz28]

Trump isn't actually going to annex Canada but that's not the point. The outrageous thing is that he actually said he would and that it's part of his justification for what could be massively damaging tariffs and other economic sanctions.

That you don't believe this (?) because you don't believe the media seems like a bad way to get informed about things — as is jumping up and down at every sensational headline.

This is all I believe about Trump's ill intentions towards Canada and I still view them as outrageous, moronic, without modern historical precedent, and profoundly embarassing for Americans. Do you think such rhetoric is normal, justified, wise or strategic? If not, why continuously go to bat saying "but it won't happen" as though the threat itself isn't hugely problematic.

I don't think it's a justification. It seems more of a distraction/outlandish deal offer, which can then be trimmed down to what he actually wants. It's the art of the deal.
As for whether it's normal or not, no, not for this century or the latter part of the last. But from where I stand it's just funny to see him make propositions that he knows he's never going to get, and he doesn't intend to get, but the media is going crazy over the idea that that must be what he's trying to get. Meanwhile, he'll do what he's really trying to do and when people hear about it they'll think "oh, that wasn't so bad," when that's what the media should've been reporting on the whole time.
Is it normal for a politician? No. Is it normal for a businessman? Yes. So no, it's not problematic because Trump, a businessman, is acting like a businessman, and personally I think it's hilarious that people don't expect that or find it in character for him to do so. He's not talking about invasion, his economic plans are the same ones he's had all along and has said that he'll do, he's just diverting publicity. If the media is too stupid to follow that, then his plan has just shown it's stupidity while letting him get his way.

It's really rather smart. He's using the fact that his opponents have claimed so often that he's gone mad and stupid that they believe their own propaganda, and he's using their underestimation of him against them, all while having a higher chance of accomplishing what he's said he'll do all along. The Democratic party is making the same mistake that they made during the election.

That's all entirely separate from the matter of how tariffs will actually effect our economies, of course.

[CaptainFritz28]

In case you're interested (and I know you're not, but you've given me the opportunity to natter about Newfie so you're stuck with it) the founding father of the Newfie branch of the family was Thomas Youden who moved over there to Bull Cove a little over 200 years back

I must ask that you instruct me on how Youden is properly pronounced, because otherwise I'm going to keep saying YOO-den in the most stereotypical northern accent you've ever heard even though I'm sure that that's totally wrong... I'm easily entertained.

Also, cool.

[Octavious]

Uh... so what?

You really are the king of irrelevant shit.

It's called friendly conversation, old boy. You should try it some time. Not everything on this site has to revolve around cutting political discourse and fervent sexual tension