Trump v. Biden - How worried should I be?

[CaptainFritz28]

Trump should be in prison.
Biden is too old.

Trump is also too old.

As I said, I don't like either.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Trump should be in prison.

I agree, but the US judicial system doesn't and they seem to have tried literally everything. At a certain point it started to look like lawfare. Legal actions against Trump probably help more than hurt his chances of becoming president at this point.

Biden is too old.

You no doubt agree, but it's worthwhile saying that Trump is also much too old. He would be 82 by the end of his term if reelected.

The Economist had a great article on this recently. Basically, Biden and Trump fit the archetype of "super-agers" whose privileged backgrounds mean they're likely to live longer and healthier lives than the average American. Even still, their analysis suggests that each candidate would have only about a 75% chance of surviving their full term in office. It's wild they're both on the ballot.

[CaptainFritz28]

Wow. 25% chance of death simply due to age.

We have a great set of candidates this year.

[learnedSloth]

But that's all semantics. I think the point you're trying to make is whether there is a good chance of violence resulting from the election. I think there is, either way it goes. I don't think I can do anything about it, since the area where I live has never had problems with that and I don't expect we will this year. I don't think there will be pre-civil war levels of violence, but there most likely will be violence. It's a sorry state that our nation has come to.

I guess I think about "worry" as an emotion that drives rational actions. I eat when I'm hungry, I drink when I'm thirsty, and I prepare differently for the future when I'm worried.

I have a number of practical decisions to make that are somewhat tied to how wild things get in the US:

I'm considering honeymoon destinations, but don't want to be book a vacation in a US city that's being burned down.

I've got a cushy government job that I hate and would love to leave, but I might be very happy to have the income stability if political volatility in the States turns out to be terrible for the economy.

I've been involved in a small way in Canadian politics and may want to get more involved if I suspect that, in response to craziness in the US, Canada goes a little off-the-rails.

I have noticed that the lack of perfect knowledge often precludes optimization of decisions. It leads me to seek divine guidance.

11 The counsel of the LORD standeth for ever, the thoughts of his heart to all generations.
12 Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD; and the people whom he hath chosen for his own inheritance.
13 The LORD looketh from heaven; he beholdeth all the sons of men.
14 From the place of his habitation he looketh upon all the inhabitants of the earth.
15 He fashioneth their hearts alike; he considereth all their works.
16 There is no king saved by the multitude of an host: a mighty man is not delivered by much strength.
17 An horse is a vain thing for safety: neither shall he deliver any by his great strength.
18 Behold, the eye of the LORD is upon them that fear him, upon them that hope in his mercy;
19 To deliver their soul from death, and to keep them alive in famine.
-- Psalm 33

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I'm glad that works for you LearnedSloth, but I have no idea what practical guidance to take from that quote.

[CaptainFritz28]

For those who do not believe in God, and His providence, it is litte comfort. For those of us who do believe, however, it is a reminder that God is all powerful, and has His people's best interests in mind.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I just find Sloth's advice in this thread to be a little strange and unhelpful.

Facing uncertainty? Don't try to reduce it by gaining knowledge, just know God loves you.

Worried about the future? Don't try too hard to change it, just know God's got your back, besides the next life is what really matters anyhow.

I feel as though even if I believed in God, I would still focus my energy on my mortal life and what I can do to improve the material world. Maybe my personal effort to understand and change the world are part of God's plan.

All of this is detracting a bit from the convo I was hoping to have haha, but I guess it's not a topic with much interest here.

[CaptainFritz28]

Hence why I noted our difference in the definition of worry. With your definition, I think it would be morally wrong to not worry about evil. We should do all we can to stop it. With my definition, which I surmise Sloth shares, worrying is nothing more than a waste of time and brainpower.

[Crazy Anglican]

Haven't read that much of this one. A bit busy and distracted. For my part I am very worried. My thoughts on former President Trump have evolved over the years,

Leading up to the 2016 election I lamented the horrible choice the two parties game and refused to vote for either candidate. I voted Johnson on the principle that I thought he seriously would have made a better president than either Clinton or Trump.

During Trump's first term, I didn't like him and thought he was an embarrassment to the country, but I fundamentally disagreed with the protestors. He was legally elected, He had the job for four years. Try harder to beat him next time. More specifically put someone up to run against him that I can get behind.

When the pandemic struck, I seriously regretted not voting for Clinton. Not because she would have been a better president, but that she was familiar enough with politics to be able to handle the crisis in a competent manner. I really became appalled and mortified by Trump's lies and antics about the pandemic. It was obvious he was mostly concerned with how it was making him look. He seemed to be grasping at straws, doubling down on the idea that the experts weren't people we should listen to. To me this was incredible. My wife who is more conservative politically that I am (although we're both pretty conservative) was actually contemplating voting for him in 2020 to which I replied in frustration "You don't get to preside over the deaths of 600,000 Americans and keep your job." By the time the 2020 election came about, I had talked enough that everyone of voting age in the family was voting for Biden. Still at this point I was voting against an incompetent buffoon.

Then the antics after the election took place. I began referring to him as the Toddler in Chief. My frustration was mainly on the level of. "Okay, you got beat, put on your big boy pants and try against next time." As this progressed and he began openly doubting the election process, and making wild claims that he had won & the election was stolen from him. I began thinking more on the terms of, "No wait, this is a wealthy man who is used to bending and breaking rules to get what he wants. He's treating the rule of law as if it can be negotiated like a shady business deal." That's when I was truly committed to this guy never getting near the Oval Office again. This is still prior to January 6th. A tape was released by the Secretary of State in my home state (I'll vote for Brad Raffensperger for anything he ever wants to run for) basically showing the world that Trump was trying illegal means to fix the election in his favor. I had never felt before like we were on the verge of a collapse of the political system that I grew up with. What happens if this guy actually gets away with it?

Then January 6th happened, and I was absolutely sickened. Had non of the people sitting in World History class with me in high school listened? Were we destined to become another Weimar Republic? I am absolutely worried that people in my home country are willing to throw away their rights to choose their leaders simply because they do not want to compromise with people who disagree with them. I believe strongly that this is the most important election since 1860, and I am deeply committed to defeating Donald Trump.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

Haven't read that much of this one. A bit busy and distracted. For my part I am very worried. My thoughts on former President Trump have evolved over the years,

Leading up to the 2016 election I lamented the horrible choice the two parties game and refused to vote for either candidate. I voted Johnson on the principle that I thought he seriously would have made a better president than either Clinton or Trump.

During Trump's first term, I didn't like him and thought he was an embarrassment to the country, but I fundamentally disagreed with the protestors. He was legally elected, He had the job for four years. Try harder to beat him next time. More specifically put someone up to run against him that I can get behind.

When the pandemic struck, I seriously regretted not voting for Clinton. Not because she would have been a better president, but that she was familiar enough with politics to be able to handle the crisis in a competent manner. I really became appalled and mortified by Trump's lies and antics about the pandemic. It was obvious he was mostly concerned with how it was making him look. He seemed to be grasping at straws, doubling down on the idea that the experts weren't people we should listen to. To me this was incredible. My wife who is more conservative politically that I am (although we're both pretty conservative) was actually contemplating voting for him in 2020 to which I replied in frustration "You don't get to preside over the deaths of 600,000 Americans and keep your job." By the time the 2020 election came about, I had talked enough that everyone of voting age in the family was voting for Biden. Still at this point I was voting against an incompetent buffoon.

Then the antics after the election took place. I began referring to him as the Toddler in Chief. My frustration was mainly on the level of. "Okay, you got beat, put on your big boy pants and try against next time." As this progressed and he began openly doubting the election process, and making wild claims that he had won & the election was stolen from him. I began thinking more on the terms of, "No wait, this is a wealthy man who is used to bending and breaking rules to get what he wants. He's treating the rule of law as if it can be negotiated like a shady business deal." That's when I was truly committed to this guy never getting near the Oval Office again. This is still prior to January 6th. A tape was released by the Secretary of State in my home state (I'll vote for Brad Raffensperger for anything he ever wants to run for) basically showing the world that Trump was trying illegal means to fix the election in his favor. I had never felt before like we were on the verge of a collapse of the political system that I grew up with. What happens if this guy actually gets away with it?

Then January 6th happened, and I was absolutely sickened. Had non of the people sitting in World History class with me in high school listened? Were we destined to become another Weimar Republic? I am absolutely worried that people in my home country are willing to throw away their rights to choose their leaders simply because they do not want to compromise with people who disagree with them. I believe strongly that this is the most important election since 1860, and I am deeply committed to defeating Donald Trump.

I really resonate with your disappointment re: the Democrat's response to Trump.

Dems openly disdain Trump supporters, who they implausibly smear as being only bigots and morons - how is that approach going to win over new voters? The politics of disdain have prevented Dems from even trying to understand the genuine political grievances that drive Trump voters to the polls, many of which are broadly shared by folks on the left (Trump and Bernie have a surprising amount of policy preferences in common, for example).

Dems also seem to disdain their own voters by giving them abysmal choices for leaders and by associating themselves luxury-belief-style policies that even most of their own supporters hate (school closures during COVID; de-fund the police; disempowering parents with regard to curriculum and gender identity issues; doing almost nothing amidst a major uptick in illegal border crossings; etc.).

Apologists will say that Biden was a centrist compromise candidate meant to distance the Dems from their craziest and least popular policy positions - if so, he's been a lame duck in that regard.

[CaptainFritz28]

If Biden is centrist, my name's George Washington. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you haven't watched the most recent state of the union address yet.

That said, he's more centrist than Trump, but that really isn't saying much.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

If Biden is centrist, my name's George Washington. I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you haven't watched the most recent state of the union address yet.

That said, he's more centrist than Trump, but that really isn't saying much.

To be clear I'm not saying Biden is a centrist, that's just how some of his supporters justify putting this extremely decrepit man at the head of the party.

And Biden is certainly not as far left as a blue-blooded progressive might like. He has tried (unsuccessfully) to distance the party from deeply unpopular progressive policy objectives like "de-fund the police", if only half-assedly. He's maintained some Trump policies vis-a-vis the southern border that progressives hate. Likewise, he hasn't reversed the Trump tax cuts. It's conceivable that another potential Dem leader (Warren, Sanders, etc.) would have given the progressive wing of the party more of what they wanted.

[CaptainFritz28]

That's fair, I had misunderstood your meaning. Apologies.

[Jamiet99uk]

Wow. 25% chance of death simply due to age.

We have a great set of candidates this year.

It's mad isn't it?

This is like Ronald Reagan running for office in 1993-94.

[Jamiet99uk]

(To clarify, he didn't, because he'd already completed two terms as of 1989 but it would have been weird if he did).

[Octavious]

I've still yet to see a good explanation as to how a few thousand enthusiasts in fancy dress walking through the Capitol building was meant to change the election result. In a country like the US, where every other man and his mother own an impressive amount of personal weaponry, January 6th does not resemble what I'd imagine an insurrection would look like. To me it looks like Trump was attempting to create the optics of a people protesting at being wronged in the hope of persuading officials to redouble their efforts in hunting down the missing votes. It is very easy to believe that Trump genuinely believed he had won.

But all that is something of a moot point. Neither Trump nor Biden have enough life left in them to be a long-term leader even if they had dictatorial aspirations. There's a damned good chance that dictator for life would be a briefer prospect than the traditional four more years.

So, looking at Biden's record. He's a gaffe a minute laughing stock who makes George W Bush look like a great public speaker. I've never known a President look less in control than Biden. I don't think the Americas have had a head of state which such dubious command of his own faculties since George III started mistaking shrubbery for the King of Prussia. Still, the Democrats are not a one man band and have managed to get some things done despite the drag factor of their figurehead. The American economy is holding up pretty well. Boosted by some shameless America First policies that have seen, amongst other things, America's European allies forced to pay a small fortune to import US gas, the US has found itself at a competitive advantage. On the international stage it has been one disaster after another. Biden started by losing Afghanistan to a bunch of primitive fanatics, he failed to deter Putin from invading Ukraine, he appears to be failing to help Ukraine drive Russia out of Ukraine, and I haven't got the foggiest idea what he actually wants to happen in the Middle East but I'm pretty sure that what's currently going on isn't it. And he has, in the finest traditions of Democrat Presidents promised to close Guantanamo Bay and failed to come close to doing so. Anything else of note? Oh, the immigration policy is an embarrassing mess, even more so than usual.

Biden is awful.

And then there's Trump. Who, to be fair to him, managed to avoid getting bogged down in major new international conflicts and managed to bully NATO members into starting to spend some money on their military forces. It's just a shame about everything else. You can't help but feel that he missed his calling running the waste management wing of a mafia empire.

Trump is awful

The most worrying thing is that, even with the least inspiring options in the history of the Union, I'm not seeing much in the way of a viable 3rd Party candidate. If not now then it will never happen.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I've still yet to see a good explanation as to how a few thousand enthusiasts in fancy dress walking through the Capitol building was meant to change the election result. In a country like the US, where every other man and his mother own an impressive amount of personal weaponry, January 6th does not resemble what I'd imagine an insurrection would look like. To me it looks like Trump was attempting to create the optics of a people protesting at being wronged in the hope of persuading officials to redouble their efforts in hunting down the missing votes. It is very easy to believe that Trump genuinely believed he had won.

I'm not a Jan. 6 doomer, but I think the "protest that got out of hand" narrative takes this way too lightly.

Trump spent months before the 2020 vote telling baseless lies about how the vote would be compromised. Then, when he lost, he did several provably illegal things to try to intimidate officials into "finding the votes" (e.g., that infamous call Raffensperger phone call). Then, when that failed, he tells his supporters to go to the capital to "fight like hell" to take their country back. He doesn't need to say the quiet part out loud - he's been courting a volatile demographic and they know what he means, even when he says "oh yeah and be peaceful" after they're already storming the capital. None of this would have been justified even if he genuinely believed he won, and that's the wrong goal post anyhow - Trump seems to believe whatever is most expedient for him to believe in the moment and nothing else.

I agree the whole thing was silly. Trump's ham-fisted attempt to pressure officials to ignore the vote was unlikely to work. The legal strategy of instructing the VP not to certify the vote made no sense. And in no universe was a man with horns going to decide who gets to be President. But that only shows that Trump's attempts to stay in power after losing the election were stupid, desperate, and ineffective - it doesn't mean they weren't dangerous. The protesters he encouraged to go to the capital were within a couple minutes of engaging with elected officials. If Jan. 6 included the live-streamed murder of Nanci Pelosi or Mike Pence we would be living in a different world today.

The whole thing is exhibit A for why I think Trump is unfit to run, regardless of his policy positions. He has demonstrated no respect for democratic norms and has proven willing to engage in the most outrageous, morally bankrupt, and idiotic practices to stay in power.

[Octavious]

I don't buy it. Trump is many things, but he's not an idiot. He also has a long history of cutting and running when things don't work out. His string of bankrupt business ventures don't point to the personality of a man inclined to invest vast amounts of effort into a hopeless enterprise.

No, I think Trump believed he had won. The big players in major elections all have private polling carried out which the public are seldom privy to. Trump's polling in the previous election campaign apparently gave him insights into the thinking of the voting public in key areas that was considerably more in keeping with reality than Clinton's, allowing him to target more effectively and win. My suspicion is that his polling at the last election was sending similar messages, and because of its track record Trump placed a great deal of faith in it. In Trump's mind he had won and was simply waiting for conformation. He probably also suspected that attempts would be made by his enemies to cheat, so when it turned out his tally was smaller than expected in a few key states the narrative that flowed easiest to him was that he was indeed being cheated. In that light his theatrics and delaying tactics make sense. Give time for the truth to shine through, and emerge in glorious triumph. When the truth turned out to be stubbornly pro-Biden Trump was royally screwed.

[Esquire Bertissimmo]

I'm curious about a few of these points.

Why does it matter what Trump believed? His actions were irresponsible regardless.

How would you explain Trump's efforts to invalidate the election before it even took place (e.g., telling his voters mail-in ballots would be fraudulent constantly for months before the election)? It seems obvious that he was ready to throw the whole thing into question before voting even started to ensure he could contest a result he didn't like.

Yes, presidential candidates have access to special polling not available to the rest of us - but why is Trump the only one to contest an election based on its results? His inaccurate polling wasn't evidence of voter fraud. Surely at least one other candidate had internal polling that didn't accord with the actual results in the past. The polling errors were MUCH larger when Clinton lost to Trump in 2016, for example.

What you describe as "theatrics and delay tactics" were abhorrent and borderline treasonous. "Find the votes" is an absolutely insane thing for a President to say to an election official. "Don't certify the result" is an unprecedented request for a President to make to a VP. His own AG had already confirmed there hadn't been voter fraud. These "tactics" were not only moronic, they severely degraded the norms of what's acceptable for a President to do following an electoral loss.

The coming election is, in part, a referendum on whether or not Americans care at all about this sort of conduct. If Trump is re-elected, I suspect one result is that the boundaries on this type of behaviour will get pushed even further throughout his term / when it's time to pick his successor.

[Octavious]

Why does it matter what Trump believed? His actions were irresponsible regardless.

It's matters because I am not in the habit of accepting a narrative that doesn't make sense to me. It matters because it is impossible to understand someone and predict their future behaviour if you don't have a solid understanding of their recent history. Saying that Trump is a crazed idiot will happily explain away every action he carries out, but won't help to predict any of them.

How would you explain Trump's efforts to invalidate the election before it even took place (e.g., telling his voters mail-in ballots would be fraudulent constantly for months before the election)? It seems obvious that he was ready to throw the whole thing into question before voting even started to ensure he could contest a result he didn't like.

It's has been a tradition in recent US politics to demonise the other side as a tactic to motivate your base to go out and vote. This is consistent with that trend. One of the reasons that Kier Starmer is doing so well in the polls in the UK is that he has managed to convince Conservative voters that a Labour victory won't be a disaster. With Conservative voters angry at the Conservative Party and not fearful of Labour the Tory vote is collapsing, even though Kier himself is as popular and inspiring as a day old baked potato.

es, presidential candidates have access to special polling not available to the rest of us - but why is Trump the only one to contest an election based on its results? His inaccurate polling wasn't evidence of voter fraud. Surely at least one other candidate had internal polling that didn't accord with the actual results in the past. The polling errors were MUCH larger when Clinton lost to Trump in 2016, for example.

There have been several contested elections with far worse standards of behaviour. One of them resulted in a civil war. There have also been one or two elections that probably should have been contested, but the loser believed that that stability was more important than the chaos and division that would result if he kicked up a stink about it. Sadly I can't recall off hand which one it was.

What you describe as "theatrics and delay tactics" were abhorrent and borderline treasonous. "Find the votes" is an absolutely insane thing for a President to say to an election official. "Don't certify the result" is an unprecedented request for a President to make to a VP. His own AG had already confirmed there hadn't been voter fraud. These "tactics" were not only moronic, they severely degraded the norms of what's acceptable for a President to do following an electoral loss.

I tend to agree with much of that

The coming election is, in part, a referendum on whether or not Americans care at all about this sort of conduct. If Trump is re-elected, I suspect one result is that the boundaries on this type of behaviour will get pushed even further throughout his term / when it's time to pick his successor.

I imagine it's a smaller part than you think. Standards of behaviour in previous elections have been far worse and things have improved. The idea of historic America being a kind of Camelot is very much a Trumpian myth