Election Night Thread

[New England Fire Squad]

Just voted. Longest line by far that I have ever seen in my life. How about the rest of you?

[Matticus13]

I voted a couple weeks ago and the line was non-existent (but I live in a small KS city of 15k). The US is on track to smash 2016's turn out.

Everybody go vote!

[orathaic]

Turnout in the last few decades has be abysmal, having looked it up a few days ago, I think it was 1968 since they managed to get over 60% of the electorate.

And that is for presidential elections.

I am interested to see if (with all the mail-in ballots, and early voting) they actually manage to break 60% during a pandemic...

[Matticus13]

Looks like Trump is going to carry Florida. Nate Silver says that ups Trump's chances of reelection from 1 in 10 to approx 1 in 3.

[New England Fire Squad]

This doesn't look like Biden +10 like the polls said. This is close.

[President Eden]

California will swing the popular vote back to Biden. It clearly won't be +10 at this point

[New England Fire Squad]

California will swing the popular vote back to Biden. It clearly won't be +10 at this point

Oh, definitely. It's just there's no way Biden is up by as much as the polls said if Trump is currently +7 in Ohio. Trump has a shot.

[President Eden]

California will swing the popular vote back to Biden. It clearly won't be +10 at this point

Oh, definitely. It's just there's no way Biden is up by as much as the polls said if Trump is currently +7 in Ohio. Trump has a shot.

Polls are paid to create opinion, not reflect it

[Matticus13]

Certainly will be a nail biter. Comes down to AZ and Rust Belt. MI isn't looking great for Biden

[jmo1121109]

Michigan has 3.6 million mail in ballots, which won't be counted entirely till November 6th. It's going to be insanely close, and those 300,000 ballots the postal service refused to send before 8pm despite a court order might be the deciding factor.

Penn is going Biden given it's 2.2 million absentee at a 3 to 1 Biden ratio.

This is going to be close. Welcome to Civil War 2.0.

[RoganJosh]

Looking forward to that electoral college tie..

Or maybe ranked choice voting in Maine will seal the deal.

[RoganJosh]

Michigan has 3.6 million mail in ballots, which won't be counted entirely till November 6th. It's going to be insanely close, and those 300,000 ballots the postal service refused to send before 8pm despite a court order might be the deciding factor.

I think only 6,000 of them where from MI?

[flash2015]

California will swing the popular vote back to Biden. It clearly won't be +10 at this point

Oh, definitely. It's just there's no way Biden is up by as much as the polls said if Trump is currently +7 in Ohio. Trump has a shot.

Polls are paid to create opinion, not reflect it

That is nonsense.

[flash2015]

Happier than I was earlier in the night...when I thought Biden was gone. Arizona looks like it is a pickup for Biden and Minnesota is also likely (Fox has called both for Biden).

Georgia may also still be in play because little of the Atlanta vote has been counted. The rest (MI, WI and PA) will be waiting on the postal vote.

[President Eden]

I think Georgia ends up going for Biden late tonight off the back of Atlanta. They still have over half a million ballots left to count in the Atlanta area, and the voting there so far is something like 70/30 Biden (napkin math averages of different county-by-county results). Trump has a sizable lead but Biden is definitely still in range.

I'm standing by all the rest of my picks from the map, but I think I got Georgia wrong, and Georgia is enough to flip the election to Biden. We will see what happens in Pennsylvania over the next few days!

[TrPrado]

Jim Inhofe for the thousandth term, wooo boy is that exciting!!

[New England Fire Squad]

Looking forward to that electoral college tie..

Or maybe ranked choice voting in Maine will seal the deal.

Ranked choice doesn't apply to potus votes.

[New England Fire Squad]

I think Georgia ends up going for Biden late tonight off the back of Atlanta. They still have over half a million ballots left to count in the Atlanta area, and the voting there so far is something like 70/30 Biden (napkin math averages of different county-by-county results). Trump has a sizable lead but Biden is definitely still in range.

I'm standing by all the rest of my picks from the map, but I think I got Georgia wrong, and Georgia is enough to flip the election to Biden. We will see what happens in Pennsylvania over the next few days!

It's close in Georgia, but it looks to me more like a closer version of Kemp-Abrams. We'll see.

[RoganJosh]

Ranked choice doesn't apply to potus votes.

It does.

But unclear if it'll matter now...

[TrPrado]

It's gonna come down to the absentee votes in Michigan in Pennsylvania