USA starts a trade war with allies

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Randomizer
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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#81 Post by Randomizer » Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:37 pm

Octavious wrote:
Fri Mar 09, 2018 5:55 pm
Sorry, Randomizer. I would answer but I seriously have no idea when you're joking or not.
I am serious in that North Korea accelerated it nuclear weapons program after Libya had a revolution. Its been well documented that they sought Pakistan help to get ahead all through the Bush and Obama administrations to prevent going away and followed Iran in nuclear threats get respect.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#82 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:59 am

It doesn't make sense for North Korea to pursue a nuclear missile program, though. Once they have a warhead they can convert into a mine they have won. Spending countless billions on welding it to a rocket that the Yanks can shoot down in a heartbeat is an unnecessary expense. Unless something like Russia decided to give them a 50 year boost in missile technology it is an utterly useless expense.

Libya was rather different. It's a far smaller nation than North Korea without a neighbouring friendly super power and it's people were far less loyal to the state. I don't think nuclear weapons capability was ever realistic for them.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#83 Post by peterlund » Sat Mar 10, 2018 3:51 pm

Octavious wrote:
Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:51 am
You have a rather inflated opinion of EU strength and unity, I have to say. In the east a somewhat alarming block of nationalists and populists who are more Trump than Trump has gained ascendancy.
Well I am an optimistic humanist that want to believe and hope that the good side will prevail over the evil side in the end. Its Cecilia and EU against Trump, Putin, Boris J, Kim, Erdogan, ... (this list on the evil side is just tiresome long reflecting too much of the evil side of humans)

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#84 Post by Incrementalist » Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:58 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:59 am
Spending countless billions on welding it to a rocket that the Yanks can shoot down in a heartbeat is an unnecessary expense.
It does make sense for North Korea to pursue nuclear missile technology because 1) it is not actually possible to reliably shoot down an ICBM with current technology, and 2) with that in mind, would the US risk Honolulu to defend Seoul or Tokyo?

The uncertainty surrounding point 2 (substituting Paris for Seoul) is what led France to pursue it's own independent "force de frappe" during the cold war, and why it may make sense for Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals if North Korea proceeds much further.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#85 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:22 pm

I'm curious, Peter. What about Boris makes you think he's evil?

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#86 Post by Octavious » Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:28 pm

Incrementalist wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 4:58 pm
Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:59 am
Spending countless billions on welding it to a rocket that the Yanks can shoot down in a heartbeat is an unnecessary expense.
It does make sense for North Korea to pursue nuclear missile technology because 1) it is not actually possible to reliably shoot down an ICBM with current technology, and 2) with that in mind, would the US risk Honolulu to defend Seoul or Tokyo?

The uncertainty surrounding point 2 (substituting Paris for Seoul) is what led France to pursue it's own independent "force de frappe" during the cold war, and why it may make sense for Japan and South Korea to build their own nuclear arsenals if North Korea proceeds much further.
The US can't defend Seoul. The North Koreans could destroy it whenever they want.

I will make a simple observation that, if your basic nuke cannot be taken out mid flight, the Russians wouldn't have spent countless billions developing increasingly more advanced missiles designed to get through defences.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#87 Post by Incrementalist » Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:05 pm

Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:28 pm

The US can't defend Seoul. The North Koreans could destroy it whenever they want.

I will make a simple observation that, if your basic nuke cannot be taken out mid flight, the Russians wouldn't have spent countless billions developing increasingly more advanced missiles designed to get through defences.
I was including deterrence as a form of defense. The US can deter an attack on Seoul through threat of retaliation. However, if that retaliation came at the cost of a strike against a US city by North Korea (via the ICBMs it is currently developing), it would call US resolve into question. The US might not retaliate if the cost to itself was too high. This was the calculation that the French made in the 1960s.

Moreover, the Russians are spending money against the possibility of missile defense in the future, not because it's presently feasible. It wouldn't be prudent for them to wait until the US actually possessed a missile defense system (and thus first-strike capability) to begin R&D.

At the moment, missiles are ahead of missile defense in the race, and the Russians want to keep it that way.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#88 Post by Telamor » Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:02 pm

I'm not arguing the presence of these people in power in Europe isn't a problem for Europe but that in no way alters the fact that the people that support Trump on the international stage are populist anti-democrats/autocrats. In other words he is running policies and using rhetoric that appeals to these anti-democrats/autocrats while alienating the leaders of more stable democracies like the UK, Germany, and France.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#89 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:36 pm

Stable democracies like Germany that, just 30 years ago, was half Communist Dictatorship and who, in its modern "enlightened" age has the AFD as the largest party of opposition? Stable democracies like France who saw their last presidential election contested by a completely new party and neo nazis, and who back in the glory days of their democracy heroically waged war on evil organizations such as Greenpeace?

The rose tinted glass of western Europe is particularly strong today, methinks.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#90 Post by Telamor » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:15 pm

That right there Octavious is what-about-ism 101. Neither France or Germany is attempting to overthrow their own judicial system.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#91 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:56 pm

Telamor wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 4:15 pm
That right there Octavious is what-about-ism 101. Neither France or Germany is attempting to overthrow their own judicial system.
How is it what-about-ism? My line of argument is that Trump is only something of a democratic outlier if viewed from the very limited perspective of a small group of Western European and former British colonial nations over a very limited timeframe.

I would say the what-about-ism is more your random comment about overthrowing judicial systems, which I don't recall being mentioned before.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#92 Post by Telamor » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:01 pm

Each of your above points could be summed up as "what about French attitudes to green peace. The history of Germany. The ADF and FN." Which you were using to attempt to rule out France and Germany as valid comparisons for modern international and domestic US politics.

As far as timeframe is concerned that's hardly a valid criticism given how subjective it is. Sure Trump's behaviour wouldn't be out of place when compared to a later Roman emperor or French monarch but neither of those are things we're trying to emulate or standards we measure modern politicians by. In comparison to the leaders of other western nations Trumps actions and mental state are indeed questionable.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#93 Post by MattyofG » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:08 pm

Incrementalist wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 9:05 pm
Octavious wrote:
Sat Mar 10, 2018 5:28 pm

The US can't defend Seoul. The North Koreans could destroy it whenever they want.

I will make a simple observation that, if your basic nuke cannot be taken out mid flight, the Russians wouldn't have spent countless billions developing increasingly more advanced missiles designed to get through defences.
I was including deterrence as a form of defense. The US can deter an attack on Seoul through threat of retaliation. However, if that retaliation came at the cost of a strike against a US city by North Korea (via the ICBMs it is currently developing), it would call US resolve into question. The US might not retaliate if the cost to itself was too high. This was the calculation that the French made in the 1960s.

Moreover, the Russians are spending money against the possibility of missile defense in the future, not because it's presently feasible. It wouldn't be prudent for them to wait until the US actually possessed a missile defense system (and thus first-strike capability) to begin R&D.

At the moment, missiles are ahead of missile defense in the race, and the Russians want to keep it that way.
If I recall correctly, the new Russian missile is actually not an ICBM, but essentially a very sophisticated cruise missile. This is relevant because an ICBM while highly difficult to shoot down (it is simply moving too fast when it descends to be accurately targeted currently, unless there is some classified stuff we don't know about), it is also very obvious the trajectory of the missile makes the target easier to determine and it can be spotted essentially at launch, which can allow 20-30 minutes to prep a retaliation before it comes down. Theoretically, the missile is also more vulnerable to interception during the launch phase if you had an interceptor nearby (Seoul).

The Russians are excited about their thing because as a cruise missile it can fly under radar, to potentially allow a first strike scenario with very little warning.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#94 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:26 pm

Telamor wrote:
Mon Mar 12, 2018 6:01 pm
Each of your above points could be summed up as "what about French attitudes to green peace. The history of Germany. The ADF and FN." Which you were using to attempt to rule out France and Germany as valid comparisons for modern international and domestic US politics.

As far as timeframe is concerned that's hardly a valid criticism given how subjective it is. Sure Trump's behaviour wouldn't be out of place when compared to a later Roman emperor or French monarch but neither of those are things we're trying to emulate or standards we measure modern politicians by. In comparison to the leaders of other western nations Trumps actions and mental state are indeed questionable.
Roman Emperors? What are you on about? I am comparing Trump's America to other post war western nations and, aside from a relatively brief piece of recent history that appears to be ending based upon recent elections, there's not a lot that's exceptional. Compared to his contemporaries in other global democracies there is also nothing exceptional. My argument is that your definition of what modern democracy is, and the yardstick you use to measure Trump by, is based upon a very short amount of time in a very narrow range of countries. It's about being aware of the perspective that you're viewing through.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#95 Post by MajorMitchell » Tue Apr 03, 2018 10:29 am

A question for Leon1112.. you claim that the allies of the USA started this trade war. Please be so kind as to explain what the Japanese did to start a trade war with the USA, and what the South Koreans did, and what the Philippines did, and what the Australians did. These nations are key allies to the USA in the Pacific, which is, last time I looked in the atlas, the region in which the USA has problems with North Korea and China.

I have to admire the Chinese response, slapping tariffs on food imports from the USA, a move that targets farmers in the USA, a group regarded as generally being a core constituency of the Republican party.

The problem with starting wars, as the sage Elizabeth 1st understood, is that no one can know in advance, just how things will play out and there's always a few nasty surprises in store along the way.

Anyone who thinks Daffy Donald Trump can out strategise, out manouvre the Chinese leadership is taking, I would suggest, a most Pollyanna like view of the world. They'll devour him as a light snack in the Diplomatic caper, imho.

I see the US Stock markets are reacting well, or perhaps not so well ?

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#96 Post by Incrementalist » Wed Apr 04, 2018 1:59 am

Trump's behavior and decisions are mostly random, but historically most countries (including those you have listed) have pursued both protectionist and free trade policies according to what suits them, or what was believed to suit them, at the time. Free trade, in all likelihood, is not always the optimal answer.

There seems to be a growing sentiment that protectionist measures are somehow immoral and deserving of retaliation, which really limits the options when a (generally weak) country needs to protect its economic interests in areas where it is not yet established.

If Prussia hadn't imposed tariffs on manufactured goods at the same time it allowed free import of raw materials, Germany might have remained an agrarian country.

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Re: USA starts a trade war with allies

#97 Post by teacher2 » Wed Apr 04, 2018 6:07 pm

MajorMitchell wrote:I have to admire the Chinese response, slapping tariffs on food imports from the USA, a move that targets farmers in the USA, a group regarded as generally being a core constituency of the Republican party.
FWIW, I dont think this was necessarily a politically targeted tariff, though that is a side benefit. Rather, their tariffs simply target the all of the US major exports to China - aircraft and agriculture are the two biggest fields. (cite).

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