Brexit solved

[orathaic]

My simple solution:

“The route to a General Election is simple.” by orathaic https://link.medium.com/DqhWIy2FMZ

[Octavious]

Your simple solution is a second referendum. I hate to break it to you, mate, but it's been suggested before.

[orathaic]

No, it is simple to force parliament to accept the result of a referendum by making it legally binding. And more importantly, by agreeing before hand what each option means with the EU signing off on all options in advance.

Which they can do, they are already happy with Norway having EEA membership, or with May's deal... And the Northern Ireland only backstop was originally suggested by May's government and accepted by the EU negotiaters before the DUP got wind of it and pushed May to the unenviable position which left her struggle for months before quitting... But accepted by the EU is the point.

A referendum where people know what the result will mean, and which is legally binding.

[orathaic]

Next step. DUP asks for more money or Brexit no deal agreed. Regardless of what happens today in Brussels.

[Octavious]

You underestimate the DUP. Money won't make them accept what they are fundamentally opposed to. As far as I can see the only way this deal passes Parliament is if a host of pro-Brexit Labour MPs rebel, the deal is amended to include a confirmatory vote, or the EU says it's either this deal or no deal.

[orathaic]

Honestly, I don't see it passing at all.

[Octavious]

Time will tell. The betting sites have it pretty 50/50. The Financial Times best guess is that there will be a handful of votes in it, and they tend to know what they are talking about. Corbyn doesn't intend to use the whip and a fair few Labour MPs are considering voting for it. The 20 odd exTories only left because of no deal, and will likely vote for a deal.

It will be close, but I suspect Boris will actually do it.

[orathaic]

Have the ERG given up on the DUP? I did hear the economist were claiming this deal would lead to a 6.4% drop in growth, vs only a 4.9% drop from May's previous deal... (but I can't read the whole article: https://www.economist.com/britain/2019/ ... Wvx8sNVVtw)

[Jamiet99uk]

Time will tell. The betting sites have it pretty 50/50. The Financial Times best guess is that there will be a handful of votes in it, and they tend to know what they are talking about. Corbyn doesn't intend to use the whip and a fair few Labour MPs are considering voting for it. The 20 odd exTories only left because of no deal, and will likely vote for a deal.

It will be close, but I suspect Boris will actually do it.

And he might have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for that pesky Oliver Letwin.

Now what?

Will Boris send the letter asking for a delay?

Will he refuse to do so, and break the law?

[orathaic]

Two letters (and a cover letter)! I kinda guessed this was where he was going.

The EU to decide how long an extention. I've heard on person suggest 11+ years...
(which would result in revoking article 50 followed be restarting it, to reset to a 2 year delay...). So perhaps a couple of weeks delay to pass relevant legislation?

[Octavious]

Two letters (and a cover letter)! I kinda guessed this was where he was going.

The EU to decide how long an extention. I've heard on person suggest 11+ years...
(which would result in revoking article 50 followed be restarting it, to reset to a 2 year delay...). So perhaps a couple of weeks delay to pass relevant legislation?

Kind of guessed? They've been talking about two letters since the Benn Act was dreamt up :p.

The EU have been trying not to pick sides for some time, like a year one Italy pretending to be focused solely on Tunis, but that is no longer an option. Two weeks is clear support for Boris. Three months is clear support for Parliament. No extension or 11 years is a clear "feck you" to everyone. What the EU should have done was to show a bit of backbone the last time and allowed the extension only with the promise of a referendum or election, like they said they were going to do.

[orathaic]

They could come back with a clear 'no, you need a clear reason for an extension, ask again with a referendum or GE promise...'

They have said no more extensions without 'good reason' so...

[Octavious]

They said that last time and it turned out they were speaking out of their arses. Saying it this time would be someone different as Boris would be able to justify saying he tried and failed to get an extension, and then possibly force parliament to choose between his deal or no deal on the 31st. Or they run out of time and no deal by mistake.

The EU, it seems, will act in its finest traditions and do nothing, hoping that Parliament will do something decisive on Tuesday so that the EU can react rather than being proactive. If there is one thing I am certain of after the last few years it's that Europe would be far better off if the EU was scrapped.

[orathaic]

No idea why you would say that...

[peterlund]

Yes. Let's scrap UK instead. Does Scotland, NI or anyone else for that matter want to remain in UK now?

[Octavious]

A deeply meaningful contribution once again, Peter. Do you wear a Make Europe Great Again cap, out of interest?

[peterlund]

Yes that was highly meaningful, since it is so easy to irritate you, my highness.

[orathaic]

Many in NI do indeed want to remain in the UK, a tiny minority of those have no faith in the British govt and would argue for Dominion status, as their loyalty is to the Queen, (so being like Canada or Australia is better in their opinion than a United Ireland). Whether there is a majority to remain in the UK is hardto tell, but any change is likely to depend on the terms of that change.

[Octavious]

Oh, I'm not irritated Peter. I find your impressive lack of knowledge and insight on the subject rather amusing, truth be told. I'm also rather intrigued about your Brexit obsession when, if I lived in Sweden, I'd be rather more interested in the bizarre epidemic of criminal explosions ripping through your country. Over 100 in the first half of this year alone, looking to beat last year's record of 170. There were 3 in one evening recently, weren't there?