MAFIA XXXVI: ODDJOB'S REVENGE

[peterlund]

Reading Xorxes in SOLO: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... rt=1-&g=36

I found 2 things supporting my option 5.

Page 33:

From the Mafia QT:

Ezio: <b> kill xorxes</b> before he finds us all out.
Ike: Phew, that was a close one.
Balki: You were meant to die, now I will have to bus another one of you tomorrow to get towncred.
Telamor: Should I keep pushing the Prado?
[hours later] Chaqa: Hi guys! I just read my PM and found the link here, what did I miss?

Here Xorxes wrote "Ezio: <b> kill xorxes</b> before he finds us all out.". Maybe scum read as Xorxes crumbing "I am cop".

Page 34:

Xorxes:

Why do you think Balki is scum?

I can't say exactly, that's why I have him as scumish and not full scum yet. The way he somehow expected people to have solid reads that they could fully justify on D1 just didn't feel right. Maybe it's just his personality or a tactic, I don't know, but his interrogation methods make me think he wants to force people into corners by intimidation more than to get any information.

Here Xorxes suspects Balki even more just 27 minutes before EoN1. He had Balki on his scum list already in his early full read list. Are these the circumstantial leads we are looking for? Did scum NK Xorxes in order to protect their Godfather? ##VOTE BALKI

[peterlund]

@Ike, you should absolutely vote today.

@ghug. Why?

@Ike: I agree that you should vote today. You may strike gold and lynch a Mafia team member, which would force everyone to rethink what your alignment might be.

[peterlund]

I need to elaborate on the situations I stated earlier. From other peoples points of view looking at my situation, there are 10 possible outcomes to what just happened and I am going to go through all of them.
1. I am scum, I get roleblocked and Killed this option is flat out dumb
2. I am scum, I get roleblocked or roleblock is holstered and someone else gets killed, not a terrible option. I claim RB which makes sense, in a game like this scum shouldn't want to let an outted PR gallivanting around
3. I am scum, I get killed but not roleblocked, again stupid enough it needs no explainaiton
4. I am scum, I get nothing. Not a bad option, but raises suspicion as to why nothing happened to a PR claim
5. I am scum, I get nothing but claim roleblock. This would only happen if option 4 was selected and scum roleblocked and killed the same person.
6. I am town, I get roleblocked and killed, not super smart, probably 30% of people believe my claim why kill me? Good part about this for scum is that they could claim RB
7. I am town, I get roleblocked and someone else gets killed, this would be a bad option but since no one but me knows the true outcomes scum or town could rightfully claim this and say it is situation 2, 4 or 5 so its a decent option for scum
8. I am town, I get Killed but not roleblocked, again like situation 6 why kill me when people think my claim is false?
9. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock them and scum claim a roleblock.
10. I am town, I get nothing. Scum kill someone and roleblock someone else in hopes of hitting the other PR

1&3 will never happen

4 makes more sense than 2, and 5 makes more sense than 4, in case the person scum decides to target is the doctor and they self save

6&8 aren't smart for scum if people don't buy my claim which they don't

7&9&10 aren't bad moves, 10 seems the riskiest out of those though

Given that, we have what actually happened:

Everyone else knows that either 2 (roleblock is holstered and Balki claims instead of me), 4, 9 or 10 happened

I know now and everyone else will know when I flip that either 9 or 10 is what actually happened

Not sure if this helps at all, it will later when I die and 2 and 4 are off the table. If I missed any options please inform me.

I note that your scenario 9 is the same as my option 5. And there is a good reason for scum not trying to NK you, as they would expect the Doc to save you this night. If they did not believe your PR claim (which is likely), there is no reason to RB you either.

[dargorygel]

@Ike. You wrote: "But you're pretty certain I'm scum right? If a decent majority of people think that way then I shouldn't vote even though I am town. Everyone who is town has no way of knowing my alignment thus no way of knowing if I'm working for or against the town. I'm still going to give my opinion, say who i would be voting for and answer most questions directed at me, but my reads and my votes have less validity than everyone else until i die and they become town canon."
I don't understand. If you are saying that your PR claim gives your discussions some golden status that we will only understand after we see which way you flip, then whichever way you flip, you should be giving us nuggets of future gold, yes? I am not sure if this is scum indicative, or lazy indicative. But your claim DOES elevate you to the spotlight. You need to display your thoughts. THAT is the true role you have claimed.

Also... why do you think you weren't NKed? There have been accusations that you are scum based on that. Did I miss a rational that you posted as to why scum have ignored your claim?

[dargorygel]

@ghug
Jamiet already pointed out Ike's focus on you. What do you make of it, besides the slight possibility of the glamour of your baby blue eyes?

[dargorygel]

@reedeer. You mentioned not liking snowy. Care to elaborate?

Also, you said that you were getting Scummy feelings about Peter. And then said that others seem to have him on their scum reads, so you proceded to vote for Peter. (Here is the quote: As I was reading Peterlund rubbed me the wrong way, and then as I continued to read more and more people were moving him to their scum or slight scum reads.

I am going to ##Vote Peterlund)
Could you explain your thought process here (and maybe in general?) How much influence do others and their reads have on your reads?

[dargorygel]

(and are some more influential than others?)

[dargorygel]

I didn't mean to vote for Peter... but I used cut and paste, so the bot counted it. My real vote at this point is snowy. Who is playing very shady.

##Vote Snowy

[Jamiet99uk]

@Peterlund: Your analysis presumes Ike is either a genuine PR, or scum.

What if he is a VT who claimed PR because he was afraid to die?


@RagingIke: You acknowledge the fact that a lot of us don't believe your claim. Are you sticking to it? Do you continue to assert that you are a PR?

[Balki Bartokomous]

@RagingIke, Would you please elaborate on what your plan is for the day and why?

@Snowy, I’m sort of giving no you the benefit of the doubt so far, as you’re obviously holding back. Would you please go into game solve mode and give us some wisdom? If your town, it’s a big waste for you to be a leading wagon just because you haven’t decided to play yet. Please play.

[Stressedlines]

## vote snowy

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Peter, do you really think I am scum? Is this a knee-jerk reaction or something that you’ve thought through? And is your full reasoning that the NK target considered me to be “scummish”?

What do you think is the priority for the scum team right now in choosing a NK target?

[Balki Bartokomous]

just thinking through some of the reasons I may have been RBed:

(1) Scum team must think I have some likelihood of being Cop. They didn’t RB me thinking I am Doctor because I think it’s clear I would not have saved Xorxes. They suspect me for Cop.

(2) While the fact that I was RBed does not clear me by any means, I think it points in the direction of me being Town, just because Scum would have had to holster a useful weapon in order for Scum Balki to claim RB. Perhaps they felt more comfortable using the RB on me if they felt I was very unlikely to be lynched anyway. One reason for that would be that RagingIke is in fact Scum. I think that if RagingIke flips Scum, it would give me quite a lot of Town cred. So perhaps sending a RB my way in case I am Cop feels a little less costly.

[peterlund]

## vote snowy

Stressed: you need to stop putting a space between ## and vote. Please try voting again...

[peterlund]

@Peterlund: Your analysis presumes Ike is either a genuine PR, or scum.
What if he is a VT who claimed PR because he was afraid to die?

No in my option 5 scenario IKE can be a scared VT just trying to save his arse, which many people here seem to assume anyhow.

[RagingIke297]

Ike if youre sitting back, whatever wagon you get on in a critical situation, Im likely to switch. Just play as if your claim wasnt there. Give us reads. Give us votes. We will have to WIFOM you as best we can.

Not doing reads and votes is basically conf!scum who doesnt want to expend the effort to try to sound credible while hiding his team.

As I stated before, I'm going to continue to post reads and WHO I would vote for as well as the reasoning, but since there are only 6 people that know my alignment I will abstain from voting if enough people believe that is what I should do

[RagingIke297]

@Ike - not sure what to make of your claim at this point, but I agree. You should participate like normal as it still gives us info to parse when your alignment is revealed. Why are you only asking ghug what he thinks you should do?

I believe that Ghug is scum, I wanted him to answer those questions so everyone could see his answers.

@everyone please feel free to answer the following questions:

Should I claim my full role?

Should I vote today?

[RagingIke297]

Why is RagingIke constantly appealing to Ghug to coach him?

I answered this in my answer to Thamrick, I believe that Ghug is scum, I wanted him to answer those questions so everyone could see his answers. Everyone can feel free and encouraged to express opinions on what I should do

[RagingIke297]

6. I am town, I get roleblocked and killed, not super smart, probably 30% of people believe my claim why kill me? Good part about this for scum is that they could claim RB

8. I am town, I get Killed but not roleblocked, again like situation 6 why kill me when people think my claim is false?

6&8 aren't smart for scum if people don't buy my claim which they don't

I'm not sure I understand your logic here. Surely a night 1 kill would be ideal against a PR(Power Role?) as it'd dispose of you before you had a potential chance to copscan and start leaving clues for town to follow after you're dead.

@ Telamor do you think I'm really PR or lying about it?

[RagingIke297]

RagingIke297
Night-1 01:59
page 33 @Ghug, You've played in every game I have as far as I can remember. I think that you figured out that I was a PR mid D1. You know how I normally play and you saw the difference. You said something along the lines of Is Ike normally this much of a try hard? I think that you used that to make me look like scum and took advantage of the fact that people will just sheep your vote so you could get me lynched and wouldn't have to spend the NK bullet
---
That is lots of bull from Ike about being an PR and at the same time it looks like a buddying attempt of ghug. Do you not dare to claim a particular role due to the risk of being CC'ed?
And I noticed that you survived EoN1! Why would scum not NK you after you claimed "PR" unless you are scum yourself? I think we catch scum if we lynch IKE and that would be one scum vote less Day3. ##VOTE IKE

Not sure when accusing ghug of noticing a difference in my play style and using his experience to try to get me lynched became buddying, but alright.
I don't want to claim my role as that lets scum know exactly what the need to kill me. Why would scum not NK you after you claimed "PR" unless you are scum yourself? Pretty sure scum is a bunch of sadistic people who are enjoying watching a town PR get all this crap and have a decent number of people not believe him. Its a win win for them, they kill me and a PR is gone, they don't and no one believes me and town is forced to kill me at some point.