webdiplomacy.net

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:17 am

Ok let's kill Bunny.

If Bunny flips town then tomorrow YOU MUST KILL FLUM.

##VOTE BUNNY

Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?

Out of date - ignore

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:24 am

@damo: start over. You did bad math and made mistake. Start from the beginning. Use the control cycle...use the control cycle...

Where?

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:56 am

BunnyGo wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:24 am

@damo: start over. You did bad math and made mistake. Start from the beginning. Use the control cycle...use the control cycle...

Where?

<spooky ghost voice>soooomwheeeeerrrrrreeee</voice>

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am

@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?

Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.

New approach incoming shortly. Working on a spreadsheet.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:17 am

Ok let's kill Bunny.

If Bunny flips town then tomorrow YOU MUST KILL FLUM.

##VOTE BUNNY

Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?

Out of date - ignore

What errors did you make?

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am

Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?

Out of date - ignore

What errors did you make?

spreadsheet...INCOMING!

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am

Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?

Out of date - ignore

What errors did you make?

No errors made.

Bozo proved my assumptions invalid.

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am

@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?

Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.

Oh I thought it was based off evidence not bad takes

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:13 pm

damo666 wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am

@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?

Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.

Oh I thought it was based off evidence not bad takes

Burrrnnnn

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

I will not been online final 6 hours of day.

Slim chance I may be able to pop in at EOD but doubtful [running pub poker tonight].

I will check in at roughly T-6 and vote for whichever of Jamie, brain or Flum is carrying the highest vote (excluding mine).

No Damo. Bad Damo.

You left the bona-pyxxy pair as a possibility?

I’ll reread Jamie if you reread bozo. We each make a case.

@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?

@Damo: Jamie isn't happening today.

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:39 pm

@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?

It's combination notation. Maths stuff

Chaqa wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:41 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:39 pm

@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?

It's combination notation. Maths stuff

aCb = a! / (b!*(a-b)!)

he's assuming everything is equally likely except for the things he entirely excludes.

So the two options were no bussers or two bussers to explain ghug dying?

is there some reason why the probability of 1 busser is not considered.

My plan today is to go through the pairs and mercilessly pair down as many of them as I can while drinking pear juice and listening to a pair of headphones while petting a pair of dogs.

brainbomb wrote: ↑

Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:47 pm

So the two options were no bussers or two bussers to explain ghug dying?

is there some reason why the probability of 1 busser is not considered.

It was.

Pr(1 busser) = 1 - .05 -3/14 (about 73.6%)