M1025 Game Thread

[brainbomb]

I will start eliminating pairs, I am in the process of doing that.

the next one is flum and Jamie.
viewtopic.php?p=347211#p347211

Flum and Jamie have a well documented rivalry that involved flum hipfiring on Jamie in a disastrous moment in a game not too long ago.

theres some moments day 2 where Jamie changes his avatar to Fluminators, they have some back and forth. flum asks if he even knows who the avatar is.
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB ... 71#p347580

Flum votes Jamie here viewtopic.php?p=347666&sid=61422b3ccc5c ... 94#p347666

Then moves to bona

viewtopic.php?p=347703#p347703

then there is the strange pride month comment by flum which I dont quite fathom why this was not a big deal to Jamie.

viewtopic.php?p=347715#p347715

ghug wants an explanation for why flum scumreads Jamie here.

It was funnier in my head and meant to be lighthearted but agreed it came out wrong in this context. Apologies.

I've been scumreading him since day 1, and nothing he's done has shown me that genuine frustration or scumhunting he usually has. Usually he's a locktown read for me.

This is a reasonable take and could very well be true.

No, the apology is genuine. It was meant to be poking fun at the weak performative allyship I see sometimes but it didn't come out right.

No I meant the bit where you said "usually he's a locktown read for me".

This is nonsense, you scumread me the majority of games we're in, I'm sure of it.

Oh, no you're always pretty easy to read to me. The only time I ever got you wrong was when I shot you instantly without giving you a chance to explain yourself.

this whole discussion just ends here. nothing else happens with any of this. the next interactions between the two of them is the next page where flum asks jamie what the phase length is.

[url]

No, the apology is genuine. It was meant to be poking fun at the weak performative allyship I see sometimes but it didn't come out right.

No I meant the bit where you said "usually he's a locktown read for me".

This is nonsense, you scumread me the majority of games we're in, I'm sure of it.

Oh, no you're always pretty easy to read to me. The only time I ever got you wrong was when I shot you instantly without giving you a chance to explain yourself.

In between that time ghug starts up the engine on changing the subject back to bozo.


Based on this I cannot rule out Flum and Jamie.

Later on when Flum does his screenshot catchup posts about eden, he concludes his whole process by just going back to Jamie and never reaches any real conclusions about Eden in the process.

When it came to evaluations of damo he wanted to focus on damo reading the flavor posts and seemed to think doing so is preposterous.

Im back to thinking flum is scum with this, and bona is not. I see Jamie as Flums partner here, and not bona.

GHUG HAS DIED. He was Chad Maynard, a Mafia Goon!


Just FWIW as someone who lives in Durham, this is an amazing level of detail. Quite fantastic.

The FWIW makes me think Jamie was upset ghug died but that he liked the detail and flavour. I cant think of why else Jamie would say FWIW here.

[/quote]

[bozotheclown]

Maybe ghug stayed away at EOD because when he came back at 22 minutes, he and his teammate damo were wagons, ghug would not be able to change his vote to his town read BunnyGo, and he knew his other teammate Chaqa would not be able to vote for me or BunnyGo.

How do you read damo's posts (not votes, posts) at EOD2? scum!damo or town!damo?

I could see him refusing to vote for ghug as town or mafia.

[brainbomb]

Jamie lacks emotional awareness when he is scum, that he often will accidentally display tells in how he writes things. he will appear despondent or agitated after a mafia flip sometimes when things arent going well. Or he will have a half hearted tonal post about how great it is that were on the right track.

I read the FWIW as this situation sucks but for what its worth that is a good flavour post.

And I dont see why he would think that if he were town

[Jamiet99uk]

Nope. Not my 4th highest scumread. Fourth highest chance of being scum according to my assumptions. I actualy don't have any scumreads per se but I'm obliged to vote for someone.

Do you have any townreads!?

Chaqa

brain

err

that's it

You don't townread Bozo?

I thought you did.

[brainbomb]

##Vote Jamie

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie lacks emotional awareness when he is scum, that he often will accidentally display tells in how he writes things. he will appear despondent or agitated after a mafia flip sometimes when things arent going well. Or he will have a half hearted tonal post about how great it is that were on the right track.

I read the FWIW as this situation sucks but for what its worth that is a good flavour post.

And I dont see why he would think that if he were town

Where did I suggest that Ghug's death sucked?

Also while I've got you, what do you mean about me not thinking Flub's "pride month" comment would be a big deal? Why should it have been a big deal?

[Jamiet99uk]

##Vote Jamie

Wrong.

[bozotheclown]

damo your big VCA definitely shows effort but given it exactly matches what you decided the suspool should be during night, it kinda just feels like you drafted it at night with your scum partner

the original post is more authentic (yes I'm just bothering bunny) because theoretically it was before you had time to plan for what to do after your scum partner ghug flipped

so it kinda just feels like you reacted in the moment and now are trying to justify it

you've already voted bona and flum today, you've sussed jamie in the thread. only one untouched is brain, but given I townread brain (and so do others), I wanna think that that list is town and you're just scum

but then that makes me have to think that bunny is actually town somehow because of this difference idea that I'm chewing on

if anyone including you two have thoughts on this, I welcome all comments. I'm thinking this is where my focus is today. I also wanted to look at the midday D2 wagons again since the pool of people that have at least one person sussing them is very very large, and I want to maybe try to use the push and pull around ghug to help us narrow things down

My thought on this is that damo's post had a lot of flaws that I would not expect from him as town, and that if damo is mafia, Chaqa probably makes more sense than BunnyGo as a ghug busser.

If damo is a wolf, I would have had to been hard bussing ALL day 2, AND THEN switched to my other teammate. When I could have easily and reasonably switched to you.

In the post you responded to, I said damo/Chaqa probably makes more sense than damo/BunnyGo, but you defended damo based on the damo/BunnyGo possibility instead of the damo/Chaqa possibility. This almost seems like a scum slip.

How could you have "easily and reasonably" voted for me over ghug or damo after town reading me and scum reading ghug and damo without looking suspicious?

[Chaqa]

Jamie - I'm probably high on being right about him last game but he's giving me legitimately good vibes this game

For being that high up in his townreads this really seems very generous for someone ghug usually thinks is a relatively easy person to get away with faking a scumread on. Why would ghug want Jamie this high up, what was Jamie doing that was so helpful to mafia?

just assume for a moment Jamie really is town. and ghugs read here is legit, that means scum loves what Jamie is doing. Which was votes on bona, worcej, flum, bozo, bunny, then bozo.

You should continue on this line of thought

[BunnyGo]

Maybe ghug stayed away at EOD because when he came back at 22 minutes, he and his teammate damo were wagons, ghug would not be able to change his vote to his town read BunnyGo, and he knew his other teammate Chaqa would not be able to vote for me or BunnyGo.

How do you read damo's posts (not votes, posts) at EOD2? scum!damo or town!damo?

I could see him refusing to vote for ghug as town or mafia.

I specifically said "how do you read his posts (not votes, posts)". As in: what do you think of the words he wrote?

[brainbomb]

If we flip Bozo and he is town I would suspect Bona and maybe Ghug.
If we flip Bozo and he is scum I would suspect you and Fluminator.

I suspect Damo regardless of Bozo's alignment.

For me today the pool is Bozo, Chaqa, Damo, Flum, Pyxxy.

Brain, are you suggesting that I am scum with Eden and Bozo?

Is that your theory?

After voting Jamie on p68 he becomes quite theatrical and animated, and as soon as I tell him its to see what he does he responds with:

Oh FFS. Ok then, let's not read on.

Questions like this remind me of Jamie scum game

You think Ghug, Flum, Bona is the team, right?

Fluminator, you are a top wagon and there's only 22 minutes left. Who are you going to vote for?

Brain, are you suggesting that I am scum with Eden and Bozo?

Is that your theory?

He asks these questions that make you have to be perfect and re clarify things youve already stated and does it in a way that is meant to make you look stupid later. And what he never realizes when he is mafia is that this strategy only works if other people agree that the behavior is scummy. Its like trying to make someone look scummy for being wrong.

[Bonatogether]

Why would wolf!bona not have presence? His family obligations?

Meta variance experimentation. maybe didnt like previous results spamming as mafia.

Hmmm. I don’t think this is a helpful line of thought.

I also don’t think bona is likely to change his meta that much.

i also survived as mafia the last few times i played

[brainbomb]

Literally only President Eden criticised you for that.

Why are you raging at Bozo?

chaqa also said night kill analysis was not a useful tool
ghug also said night kill analysis was not a useful tool

I bet one of them is scum.

Oh no.
this isnt good.

this isnt good at all. gonna need a moment here but, this basically makes it seem like its just chaqa-jamie as the last two scum. especially given what else is happening on this page right now.

huh...

[brainbomb]

could chaqa really do this? would he really do this? would they?

what the fuck.

[bozotheclown]

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie

If you "arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5%" to there being 2 bussers, what probability did you arbitrarily assign to there being 1 busser?

[brainbomb]

Jamie - I'm probably high on being right about him last game but he's giving me legitimately good vibes this game

For being that high up in his townreads this really seems very generous for someone ghug usually thinks is a relatively easy person to get away with faking a scumread on. Why would ghug want Jamie this high up, what was Jamie doing that was so helpful to mafia?

just assume for a moment Jamie really is town. and ghugs read here is legit, that means scum loves what Jamie is doing. Which was votes on bona, worcej, flum, bozo, bunny, then bozo.

You should continue on this line of thought

yea I bet you would want that..... hmmmmmmmmmmmm

[Bonatogether]

damo is wrong again

[damo666]

Do you have any townreads!?

Chaqa

brain

err

that's it

You don't townread Bozo?

I thought you did.

I'm pretty sure he's town due to VCA but I wouldn't say I particularly townread his content, it's just very Bozoesque.

[BunnyGo]

chaqa also said night kill analysis was not a useful tool
ghug also said night kill analysis was not a useful tool

I bet one of them is scum.

Oh no.
this isnt good.

this isnt good at all. gonna need a moment here but, this basically makes it seem like its just chaqa-jamie as the last two scum. especially given what else is happening on this page right now.

huh...

why...? Because Jamie is saying 1 but not both, and is right about at least 1?

[brainbomb]

okay bona, you can be town
bunny you can also be town

flum ehhhh idk here
jamie leaning scum
chaqa is dropping now, and im gonna reconsider.

bozo is still just town
damo is looking town


so thats
bozo
bunny
damo
--------
chaqa
bona
flum
jamie