M1025 Game Thread

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damo666
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2621 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am
damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:17 am
Ok let's kill Bunny.

If Bunny flips town then tomorrow YOU MUST KILL FLUM.

##VOTE BUNNY
Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?
Out of date - ignore
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2622 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:56 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:24 am
@damo: start over. You did bad math and made mistake. Start from the beginning. Use the control cycle...use the control cycle...
Where?
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2623 Post by BunnyGo » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:57 am

damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:56 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:24 am
@damo: start over. You did bad math and made mistake. Start from the beginning. Use the control cycle...use the control cycle...
Where?
<spooky ghost voice>soooomwheeeeerrrrrreeee</voice>
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2624 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am
@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?
Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2625 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am

New approach incoming shortly. Working on a spreadsheet.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2626 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 pm

damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am
damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:17 am
Ok let's kill Bunny.

If Bunny flips town then tomorrow YOU MUST KILL FLUM.

##VOTE BUNNY
Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?
Out of date - ignore
What errors did you make?
1
There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. - Lenin.

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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2627 Post by BunnyGo » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:11 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am


Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?
Out of date - ignore
What errors did you make?
spreadsheet...INCOMING!
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2628 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:13 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:10 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:54 am
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:35 am


Can you explain the logic of this, for the slower children in the class, such as myself?
Out of date - ignore
What errors did you make?
No errors made.

Bozo proved my assumptions invalid.
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Chaqa
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2629 Post by Chaqa » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:13 pm

damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am
@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?
Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.
Oh I thought it was based off evidence not bad takes
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2630 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:22 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:13 pm
damo666 wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:58 am
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 11:27 am
@damo: you said you had it down to six pairs?
Yeah, assuming both scum in {brain, Bona, Jamie, Flum} however this is now out of date.
Oh I thought it was based off evidence not bad takes
Burrrnnnn
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There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen. - Lenin.

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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2631 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:30 pm

OK I thought I'd start by looking at the number of bussers on ghug, estimate their likelihood and the probabilty of each player being scum within that each scenario.

I started by saying no bussers (ie all town) is 6C4/8C4 (since we know Eden was town, ghug scum and I'm taking into account I am town) = 3/14

I then arbitrarily assigned a probability of 5% to 2 bussers on the basis that it is intrinsically unlikely and given our fascination with bussing had there been 2 bussers Eden would not have been the nk narrowing the pool of ghug voters.

I also made the following assumptions:

Bozo can only have bussed in a scumpair with Bunny.

In the 1 busser scenario I assumed FlumBunny not a scumpair.

In the 0 busser scenario I omitted Jamie/Bona and brain/Bona as per Chaqa.

% Results in alpha order to 1 dp

Bona 25.4
Bozo 1.2
brain 30.8
Bunny 23.8
Chaqa 29.3
Flum 29.5
Jamie 30.8
Pyxxy 29.3

From hi to lo

Brain Jamie 30.8
Flum 29.5
Chaqa Pyxxy 29.3
Bona 25.4
Bunny 23.8
Bozo 1.2

If we put 2 bussers to zero Jamie and brain go up to 32.1

If we put 2 bussers to 10% Chaqa and Pyxxy head the list at 29.9

I would put 2 bussers closer to zero than 10% so the numbers say I should vote for brain and Jamie.

As I townread brain slightly more I will

##vote Jamie
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2632 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:34 pm

I will not been online final 6 hours of day.

Slim chance I may be able to pop in at EOD but doubtful [running pub poker tonight].

I will check in at roughly T-6 and vote for whichever of Jamie, brain or Flum is carrying the highest vote (excluding mine).
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2633 Post by BunnyGo » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:38 pm

No Damo. Bad Damo.

You left the bona-pyxxy pair as a possibility?

I’ll reread Jamie if you reread bozo. We each make a case.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2634 Post by Jamiet99uk » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:39 pm

@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2635 Post by Chaqa » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:41 pm

@Damo: Jamie isn't happening today.

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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2636 Post by Chaqa » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:41 pm

Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:39 pm
@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?
It's combination notation. Maths stuff

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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2637 Post by BunnyGo » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:43 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:41 pm
Jamiet99uk wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:39 pm
@Damo: By "on Ghug" I assume you mean "voted for Ghug at any time whatsoever" yes?

What does the letter C in your equation stand for?
It's combination notation. Maths stuff
aCb = a! / (b!*(a-b)!)

he's assuming everything is equally likely except for the things he entirely excludes.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2638 Post by brainbomb » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:47 pm

So the two options were no bussers or two bussers to explain ghug dying?

is there some reason why the probability of 1 busser is not considered.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2639 Post by Chaqa » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:54 pm

My plan today is to go through the pairs and mercilessly pair down as many of them as I can while drinking pear juice and listening to a pair of headphones while petting a pair of dogs.
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Re: M1025 Game Thread

#2640 Post by damo666 » Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:58 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:47 pm
So the two options were no bussers or two bussers to explain ghug dying?

is there some reason why the probability of 1 busser is not considered.
It was.

Pr(1 busser) = 1 - .05 -3/14 (about 73.6%)
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