M1025 Game Thread

[Chaqa]

If Mafia kills someone who thinks Town Eden is a good wagon

Then they dont want town eden to die?

and they dont care about mis chopping town eden.

they care only about finding the doc and nothing else.


do you agree with this logic line eden, jamie, chaqa?

I think speculating on the nightkill is best left as a circumstantial evidence and not something we should base theories around.

you dont have to indulge it but its a tool and I will always use it for theory crafting

But that's just a theory.

A brain theory!

[Jamiet99uk]

If Mafia kills someone who thinks Town Eden is a good wagon

Then they dont want town eden to die?

and they dont care about mis chopping town eden.

they care only about finding the doc and nothing else.


do you agree with this logic line eden, jamie, chaqa?

Why would any Mafia team be so obsessed with finding the Doc that it would be their only focus?

This is highly unlikely.

[brainbomb]

Im engaging you in a very reasonable way eden but do you know the concept of EV in mafia? I dislike the term but do you know what it is?

yes

So the concept when applied as mafia is many dialogue lines:
mafia chats are usually so much more insufferably boring to read then my from the maf chat dreams.

Who should we kill
we need to find the doc
who is playing well
who is a threat to us
who can we not kill do to a doc protection
what kill is gonna massively get a ton of mischops

you want to hit all of these on one shot. you wanna find the doc win the girls heart climb to the top of vesuvius and drop a nuke in.

now a more casual less sporting mafia team might blunder their way in fear to arrive at
lets just hope we hit a PR because this games a mess and we dont know who doc will save and theres too many good town


the problem I have with B or any variant of B is that it implies amatuerism and pushes the idea of incomplete views of the game. usually mafia have a who is PR roundtable in addition to a who is playing well roundtable.

[President Eden]

Im engaging you in a very reasonable way eden but do you know the concept of EV in mafia? I dislike the term but do you know what it is?

yes

So the concept when applied as mafia is many dialogue lines:
mafia chats are usually so much more insufferably boring to read then my from the maf chat dreams.

Who should we kill
we need to find the doc
who is playing well
who is a threat to us
who can we not kill do to a doc protection
what kill is gonna massively get a ton of mischops

you want to hit all of these on one shot. you wanna find the doc win the girls heart climb to the top of vesuvius and drop a nuke in.

now a more casual less sporting mafia team might blunder their way in fear to arrive at
lets just hope we hit a PR because this games a mess and we dont know who doc will save and theres too many good town


the problem I have with B or any variant of B is that it implies amatuerism and pushes the idea of incomplete views of the game. usually mafia have a who is PR roundtable in addition to a who is playing well roundtable.

yes

so maybe one of them saw something in rdr’s post that they thought was a softclaim, or maybe they thought his general attitude reflected rolling PR.

you would never be able to know that without knowing who was mafia and how they would view rdr’s posts to reach that conclusion.

this is why I’m reasoning forward from the premise that you don’t deprive yourself of a miskill without a good reason (and killing a PR being one such reason), instead of reasoning backwards by assuming a given answer and then trying to reverse solve the equation from Z to A like you are here

[brainbomb]

with how many of the past game discord servers yall are still in you could easily go look and see this happening time after time after time fully disproving any refutation

now there is a direct moment between rivera and chaqa that could be a doc tell.

Chaqa wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:54 pm
brainbomb wrote: ↑Thu Jun 01, 2023 2:54 pm
if only consider speedeagons if it was rdrivera or damo
Rivera is a better second wagon than Bozo.

No, I am not.

@chaqa
Was curious if you felt like this post was a PR cautioning people not to vote him

[President Eden]

the lesson you still are not absorbing, and may never absorb, is that without knowing the right answers in advance, you can paint basically any narrative to frame anybody based upon a nightkill

that’s why I called this a creative writing session

the only difference between what you’re doing and somebody plugging “write a story where eden is mafia and killed rdr” into ChatGPT is that you’re actually a good writer and the robot isn’t

but neither output is reflective of anything more than its input

[brainbomb]

the lesson you still are not absorbing, and may never absorb, is that without knowing the right answers in advance, you can paint basically any narrative to frame anybody based upon a nightkill

that’s why I called this a creative writing session

the only difference between what you’re doing and somebody plugging “write a story where eden is mafia and killed rdr” into ChatGPT is that you’re actually a good writer and the robot isn’t

but neither output is reflective of anything more than its input

The only source of motive we have for someones murder is who killed them by day and who killed them by night - and why.

this is a murder deduction game. The game is about fitting the logical most likely peices into the most likely spots they fit. Thats what mafia is

[brainbomb]

mafia kill out of a need to survive to persevere to thrive and obfuscate

[President Eden]

the lesson you still are not absorbing, and may never absorb, is that without knowing the right answers in advance, you can paint basically any narrative to frame anybody based upon a nightkill

that’s why I called this a creative writing session

the only difference between what you’re doing and somebody plugging “write a story where eden is mafia and killed rdr” into ChatGPT is that you’re actually a good writer and the robot isn’t

but neither output is reflective of anything more than its input

The only source of motive we have for someones murder is who killed them by day and who killed them by night - and why.

this is a murder deduction game. The game is about fitting the logical most likely peices into the most likely spots they fit. Thats what mafia is

you’re not deducting. you’re painting by numbers. that’s the issue.

your theory is only falsifiable by my flip. all theories are falsifiable by flipping the subject of them.

and to be clear this is not an accusation of bad faith in your methodology, only of bad methodology

[brainbomb]

when you remove any form of nka from your game you replace it with guesswork, uninformed guesswork rooted in zilch/nothing and you make night phases a wifom excercise that serves no hunting purpose at all.
the nights may as well just be silent too if thats the case.

[ghug]

Chaqa should also be on the hard to read list but I don't want to kill him today.

Did anyone ask you "why?" about this opinion? Or why you felt the need to post it? I'm asking that second part neutrally.

I don't think anyone asked why.

It occurred to me so I said it.

[brainbomb]

the lesson you still are not absorbing, and may never absorb, is that without knowing the right answers in advance, you can paint basically any narrative to frame anybody based upon a nightkill

that’s why I called this a creative writing session

the only difference between what you’re doing and somebody plugging “write a story where eden is mafia and killed rdr” into ChatGPT is that you’re actually a good writer and the robot isn’t

but neither output is reflective of anything more than its input

The only source of motive we have for someones murder is who killed them by day and who killed them by night - and why.

this is a murder deduction game. The game is about fitting the logical most likely peices into the most likely spots they fit. Thats what mafia is

you’re not deducting. you’re painting by numbers. that’s the issue.

your theory is only falsifiable by my flip. all theories are falsifiable by flipping the subject of them.

and to be clear this is not an accusation of bad faith in your methodology, only of bad methodology

Its scenario based logic. and it tracks with things that actually happened. and explores the why they happened aspect.

[President Eden]

mafia kill out of a need to survive to persevere to thrive and obfuscate

they kill because they need six townies (plus two for every one of their own that does) to die for them to win, and they need town’s consent for half of those deaths. so killing someone who town might consent to killing is generally a bad value proposition, and requires some upside to justify.

can that upside involve them being a big enough threat to the team? sure. you can’t know that that’s the case without knowing who the team is.

can that upside involve them being a PR? of course, because town won’t consent to killing a PR. this is universally recognized as a sound motive for the kill so requires no knowledge of the team. obviously, trying to speculate on why the team thought the victim was a PR requires knowledge of the team too. which is why I’m not leaping to conclusions about that

[ghug]

If Bozo is scum then from VCA Bona and Jamie look good, {Chaqa, Eden, Pyx, rdr} null, {Bra Bun Flum ghug (me)} bad. Since I don't think the bad group are particularly bad I suspect Bozo is town.

If Bozo is town there is not a lot to be gleaned other than the suspicion there is at least one scum in {brain, pyx, Bona}, brain and pyx for being off 2 lead wagons and Bona for being on Bozo from early doors.

Why am I bad if Bozo's scum? I tried to kill him and moved off when he'd lost.

[brainbomb]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

[President Eden]

when you remove any form of nka from your game you replace it with guesswork, uninformed guesswork rooted in zilch/nothing and you make night phases a wifom excercise that serves no hunting purpose at all.
the nights may as well just be silent too if thats the case.

you. are. engaging. in. guesswork. and. calling. it. nka.

this is so frustrating. I wish I could just call you scum and ignore it

[Jamiet99uk]

the only difference between what you’re doing and somebody plugging “write a story where eden is mafia and killed rdr” into ChatGPT is that you’re actually a good writer and the robot isn’t

Don't encourage him to do that again.

[ghug]

I guess I should put my thoughts down for people to not listen to when I'm dead.

Scummies:
Eden - Trying not to tunnel but I really wanna tunnel
Bozo

Useless and thus suspicious
Bona
Flum - I still think he might have been defending bona with his late day votes, and I don't think he'd vote for Eden the way he did if they were teammates, so adjust accordingly if either of those two flip.
Rd

Uneasy townreads:
Brain - Disliked him early but he's trending upwards.
Damo - liked his first 24 hours but EoD was unimpressive
Chaqa - same as damo

Easier townreads:
Pyxxy - I think the v i b e s thing doesn't have much scum motivation and I liked his evolution on Bunny in that wall. I also caught a little hint of the feistiness of last game in one moment that I'm forgetting now. He's been quieter though, and my meta isn't calibrated, so I'm not willing to Bunny-level clear him.
Jamie - I'm probably high on being right about him last game but he's giving me legitimately good vibes this game.
Bunny

Your read on Damo and I is really lazy. What was unimpressive about our EOD compared to our first 24 hours? Why was it unimpressive?

This is feeling like scum!ghug

I was irked by your ratio of +1ing to saying things, and damo was much more question asky than opinion statey.

[President Eden]

the methodology of barking at everyone and repeating this person seems off yields pretty bad results too. At least a night kill actually happens. At least we can verify it happened. I cant verify that someone “seems off” unless ive poured thru 37 of these games did some monster ass meta case with fifty fuckin quotes only to have someone call it spam or not even read it anyway.

rather than yell at you what even is your system of finding mafia if you pay zero attention to motive for who the mafia is actively killinf

analysis of congruence in reads and motives, especially around EOD voting

meta where applicable although this is a limited tool (see worc for why it can suck sometimes)

PR/mechs where applicable although obviously not very applicable here

[President Eden]

it should be easy to see why someone might struggle when one of their three main tools is out, and a second one backfired spectacularly. non?