M80 Game Thread

[sweetandcool]

I get this vibe of just playing on autopilot from jamie and Bunny. It isnt even that scummy because given gamestate theyve watched half the scumteam get vaporized by night actions from quality PR play. This sort of thing tends to make people think they dont have to do much.

There is not really any effort or urgency to try from those two, but that can also be explained from a town perspective with both.

I have to be honest this is like my third or fourth best read, and im very stuck in confirmation bias on sweet.

Brain, we've seen several people vote for me through the day. Only one of those votes particularly stood out. You really don't think Jamie's vote for me was opportunistic?

[sweetandcool]

Hour left here is the pairs I think are left

Jamie-Sweet
Jamie-Bunny
ghug-sweet
sweet-dousing

I am alot less inclined to think kak or rivera could be scum here.

I see very few reasons to townread Jamie at this point

I made my case on sweet and I havent shaken off the memory of whats happened today.

And dousing for me is a huge liability, and seems to fake alot of dumbtells imo

I am more inclined to think sweet used TMI to clear ghug and thus ghug may actually be town. and he just is not even thinking sweet could ever be scum for how much that helped him out of a jam

I think you underestimate ghug in your last sentiment. Otherwise , I agree with your other paragraphs, just not your pairs.

With Dousing though, they just don't feel like scum to me. There was no reason for them to push for X, when I had previously been so unsuccessful.

I dont underestimate ghug. What a bizarre thing to say. I had been scumreading him for like 96 straight hours.

Scumreading him is hugely underestimating him.

Scumreading him means you think he sent X after Haze, despite already knowing Haze was Captain.

[brainbomb]

I get this vibe of just playing on autopilot from jamie and Bunny. It isnt even that scummy because given gamestate theyve watched half the scumteam get vaporized by night actions from quality PR play. This sort of thing tends to make people think they dont have to do much.

There is not really any effort or urgency to try from those two, but that can also be explained from a town perspective with both.

I have to be honest this is like my third or fourth best read, and im very stuck in confirmation bias on sweet.

Brain, we've seen several people vote for me through the day. Only one of those votes particularly stood out. You really don't think Jamie's vote for me was opportunistic?

Im voting Jamie but im not gonna give you cred if he flips mafia because im a mean mean man

[brainbomb]

no one wants to watch me talking to you anymore. theyre tired of it. im not gonna keep doing this. feel free to make the last word on it for today.

[sweetandcool]

I get this vibe of just playing on autopilot from jamie and Bunny. It isnt even that scummy because given gamestate theyve watched half the scumteam get vaporized by night actions from quality PR play. This sort of thing tends to make people think they dont have to do much.

There is not really any effort or urgency to try from those two, but that can also be explained from a town perspective with both.

I have to be honest this is like my third or fourth best read, and im very stuck in confirmation bias on sweet.

Brain, we've seen several people vote for me through the day. Only one of those votes particularly stood out. You really don't think Jamie's vote for me was opportunistic?

Im voting Jamie but im not gonna give you cred if he flips mafia because im a mean mean man

That is fine. I don't care about cred, and I'm not bothered by your tunnel on me. I am bothered by your tunnel on ghug.

[sweetandcool]

no one wants to watch me talking to you anymore. theyre tired of it. im not gonna keep doing this. feel free to make the last word on it for today.

How mature. I can't help but respond, sorry to you and everybody else.

[ghug]

@Town

We have to be ultra careful here.

If it is a Jamie/Bunny scumpair (note how quickly Jamie moved off Bunny) they may try to contrive a tie. I think we may have a SvS situation here. I think we should consolidate on 1 wagon. Don't really mind between the two.

i'd particularly like Haze and Worcej views.

The logical thing to do is dangle it as a possibility so they implicate themselves.

I don't think it's both of them, though.

We can't really afford a tie can we.

If it's not both who is Jamie's likeliest partner and who is Bunny's?

Rd or Dousing? Maybe Kak?

[ghug]

That's 3 ifs which I very much doubt will all happen but if they did I would then consider it and probably do a reread but at the moment I think sweet is town.

Also if that happened I think we would have to kill ghug anyway wouldn't we?

I don't get why you're sold on me being town but steadfast that we have to kill me if we get one wrong somewhere else. It seems likely we're going to go 2/2 here, and I don't really see how not doing so implicates me.

I haven't done the sums but if you are town how many miskills can we afford before miskilling you?

We have three left assuming no more saves, so two if you consider killing me necessary.

[ghug]

Hour left here is the pairs I think are left

Jamie-Sweet
Jamie-Bunny
ghug-sweet
sweet-dousing

I am alot less inclined to think kak or rivera could be scum here.

I see very few reasons to townread Jamie at this point

I made my case on sweet and I havent shaken off the memory of whats happened today.

And dousing for me is a huge liability, and seems to fake alot of dumbtells imo

I am more inclined to think sweet used TMI to clear ghug and thus ghug may actually be town. and he just is not even thinking sweet could ever be scum for how much that helped him out of a jam

That's an oversimplification. I townrwad sweet heavily before today too, and I scumread people yesterday for not voting for me.

[ghug]

I haven't done the sums but if you are town how many miskills can we afford before miskilling you?

I think it's two.

We have 3 miskills before KILO. I don't think both Ghug and Sweet should be alive at kilo, but this is just my feeling.

The bad thing is we have 3 PRs so NKs won't help us much.

Has sweet's day really been so bad that he has to die now?

[ghug]

I'm dealing with a literal fire at work so I may be quiet but I am here.

[brainbomb]

Dear Jamie,
you could probably join sweet wagon and I would join it with you.

[brainbomb]

If he chooses to do nothing I cannot justify any feeling other than scum jamie is disappointed by this game. there is no reason to move

[rdrivera2005]

I think it's two.

We have 3 miskills before KILO. I don't think both Ghug and Sweet should be alive at kilo, but this is just my feeling.

The bad thing is we have 3 PRs so NKs won't help us much.

Has sweet's day really been so bad that he has to die now?

No, but he is incapable to have an objective look at you. I am agreeing with Damo you should flip before KILO, because if you are scum the game will be over as Sweet will never reconsider.

[Kakarroto]

BunnyGo:

Two things bother me about them.

1. Reading through their threads, they make jabs at several people without any real follow up. It comes across as wanting to spread as much paranoia as possible. Particularly, they always noted in a suspicious way whenever someone makes a post EoD/EoN that ignores the result of the EoD/EoN. Otherwise, they've been tunneled on Kak. Maybe they were making a similar play to X?

2. During N1 they had a public conversation with X, where they play a bit of a councilor/mediator. It could be that X and Bunny coached the conversation as a way to help cement the idea that X vs sweetandcool was Town vs Town.
http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 91#p342691
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I'm not claiming this is amazing evidence, but if X is a 10 year vet, I could see them possibly leading the Mafia team. Consequently, if X thought the T v T approach was a good one, I think X would have encouraged Bunny to do something similar. That is, find a tunnel in Kak.

Still got more to read before actually making an educated conclusion

it could explain how bunny and jamie focused me around the same time when they read me and tried to push me. Well if both are mafia that is. Try to look towny by tunneling on someone together and get me out of the game. Sounds like a plan. However, if both were mafia and know my flip, that would come back to them. Hmm.

[Kakarroto]

[...] Realistically I think it's likely whoever did the jailing wasn't around for EoN, [...]

hmm.

well we know fox didn't jail since he used his shorten power

X had jail, track and role cop

enforcer ninja, strongman, jail

agent jail, drive, bomb

we know that strongman has been used N2, right? so that leaves ninja and jail for the enforcer

we know X was seen visiting haze N2 and it wasn't jail, so either track or role cop

we know agent didn't use bomb because they are still alive

this leaves us for N1 with
-) enforcer using either ninja or jail (or holding)
-) agent using either jail or drive (or holding)
-) X using either one of his powers or holding

personally, I think enforcer used ninja N1, just in case. It's the safest option and can only be seen by Informant, and even if they used another power, Informant would've seen it so it's not there would be a better choice then. So I don't think enforcer did use the jail.

Between agent or X, I tend towards that X used the other of his information abilities (and used the second one N2) and we purged his jail power by voting him out. It is however possible I'm wrong here and they did a drive action (that didn't pay off); I think though that the agent's jail was used towards brain for N1.

So I would say, that the chance that agent didn't see that eden reclaimed is high and thus wasn't active during the last hour(s) of EoN1. I could be wrong here, but I think probability wise it tends to be that scenario.

[Kakarroto]

I know worcej is a PR. I have strong reason to believe either President Eden or brainbomb is Quartermaster.

I look through the mech page. I would like to kill an outed PR, worcej, but I note that town has the following powers: Priest has Doctor, Navigator has Jail and Commute, Captain has watch.

Because worcej is outed, I know they are a likely target for these actions. If I were to strongman worcej, then I don't have to worry about Doctor, Jail. Commute will save worcej, but my power will be refunded, so I shouldn't be very bothered by that possibility. My worst fear is that the Captain will watch worcej, causing one member of team Mafia to be exposed. The only way to defeat the Watch power is to ninja worcej, but that gets negated by Jail or Doctor. I could drive a kill onto worcej, but then the watcher will see the kill and after the result is revealed will even know I used the drive ability as well as exposing a team Mafia member. Drive is also wasted on jail targets.

Since worcej is likely to be watched, and probably even be the target of one or more saving actions, targeting them seems unpalatable. Not targeting them means that any actions that Town throw at worcej will be wasted, and it seems quite likely that will happen, how juicy.

Between President Eden and brainbomb, there is a likely Quartermaster. Since it's easier to make a fake claim rather than shut up about a CC, it seems more likely that brainbomb is Quartermaster*. Because we are unsure who the Quartermaster is, we will jail brain, unless Town gives it away before end of night. We are comfortable with jailing brain because jail supercedes the watch power, which is the only power to fear here, plus worcej is the likely jail target.

What other powers do we have to generally fear from town? Informant, cop and track. RB could be annoying but it likely won't give Town much information if successful. We hope jailing brain takes care of Informant for the night. We can't defend against cop and just have to hope they miss or we get lucky and kill the Navigator, whoever that is (33% chance worcej is, but we're not targeting them because it's too risky). We can mitigate track by only using jail and the factional kill (or ninja kill to really mitigate it.

Probability we are caught by informant, assuming the power is used (do factional kills get a PM? I am assuming no here): 0% actually. So is jailing Brain logical?

Probability we are caught by cop, assuming power use and brain not cop: 4/14* or 2/7 or .2856 or 28.56%.

Probability of caught by track, same assumptions: 2/14 or 1/7 or .1428 or 14.28%

[All math done in head, I am smart Mafia and enjoy flexing]

And even with track, it's a 7.14% chance we outright get outted.

If we are worried we can ninja, making a 7.14% chance of getting tracked and a 0% chance of being outted outright.

So, not feeling great about the cop, but there's nothing we can really do unless we want to risk targeting worcej and hope that worcej is Navigator. We could jail worcej, but that would actually just increase his chances of a successful scan on N2, if he were even the navigator in the first place.

Now, who to kill? [I haven't played Mafia before, so I'm not going to speculate on why a pyxxy kill specifically, there were other fine targets as well, I am sure].

As long as the kill is likely to be safe, we are happy [might be more than that, but probably the priority].

We are also going to be happy to see Town use their best powers when their chances of success are lowest and when we are not targeting worcej. If all goes well, we will be able to really mess Town up with all of our saved abilities.

We will also shorten day because nobody can catch us doing that, and it will make things tougher for town.
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END OF THOUGHT EXPERIMENT

Do you all really think this thought process is impossible for team Mafia? It's not even a cut and dried example of poor play. It is reasonable.

hmm, regarding the bolded part, if they let worcej alone due to high probability of being watched, would they have used the ninja ability to remove pyxxy? Maybe I'm wrong with my assumptions they would use ninja over roleblock. Then again, if they thought pyxxy was very widely townread, they could've thought that not worcej could be watched but pyxxy instead to try to outguess, so maybe they wanted to absolutely be sue not to get caught by visiting pyxxy.

Hmm. What do you think?

[Kakarroto]

Sorry, I know I haven’t been here. Life has been hectic and I’ve been thrown by the lack of VCA the last two days. Also will have only mobile for 6 days, so will be harder to continue the ballad. That said, I was surprised how towny kaka’s posts aged from D1/N1.

Some thoughts I’ve been pondering while away (I’m sure this has been said, but maybe not this way):

1) I need to continue reading Kaka because he always seems scummy in real-time but those two parts of the ballad make me reconsider. ##unvote

2) ghug’s behavior around this PR claim is NAI—I’ve seen him do this wink/nod stuff as town and as scum

3) the mech stuff is interesting:
A) why leave worcej N1?
B) why not kill HaZe N2/3?
C) why send X to HaZe? Why not jail him?
D) assuming BB is town, why jail him?

A) possibilities: they were worried about watcher, they were worried about doctor/saves, they were NOT worried about worcej’s actions. Most or all PRs have some offensive or investigative powers, maybe they tried baiting worcej with driving his likely targets? Maybe they got unlucky and swapped X or other wolf instead of fox? Maybe ghug was RBd from targeting worcej? Maybe ghug was RBd from swapping fox with someone?

Worcej has a decent reputation for PR rock-paper-scissors. I don’t see most experienced local players wanting to try this with him. So X, May be willing to, newer players too. Not sure if Fox thinks this or not.

Ghug would probably have this opinion of worcej, but it doesn’t help me decide if he’s a wolf mechanically. Since he could have been RBd.

B) after HaZe’s posts, I think ghug would avoid killing him. Taking out Eden with unknown PR abilities left would also be valuable night 2. Night 3, I get less…maybe they lost RPS with Damo/worcej? Maybe they DID try HaZe and Damo/worcej saved?

C) this is the hardest for me if Ghug is scum. X could jail HaZe (but didn’t), and otherwise could investigate/track. Basically just checking if HaZe is a PR. Why do this? I don’t get it.

D) I don’t get this either. The possibility of being asleep at the wheel is possible. BB being wolf is possible. He’d lie like that, and Fox would agree to go along with it.

Current POE (in rough order of willingness to vote):

Dousing
Rdr
Ghug
Jamie
brain
Sweet
Kaka

Yes kaka…those first two stanzas of the ballad are buying your weirdness time with me)

Part C above makes me not want to vote Ghug. But need to do a catch up now. Will be back after we transfer to train. This post made me car sick.

gah ... I'm torn between giving townpoints for reconsidering or seeing as a mafploy after reading my reasons for townreading brain with his iso about me.

[Kakarroto]

Ok...let's stop and slowly go through what you're saying and why.

1) Why are you trying to analyze bona's alignment?
2) What are you hoping to accomplish?

what do you mean bona's alignment? I'm rereading the thread and saw this post and thought "oh, somewhat curious that mafia didn't take this opportunity. Could that mean something? Does it tell us something about mafia's thoughts?"

and I want to get a better read, or evidence, or something that helps us find mafia, why else? Maybe it's a dumb find or idea, but I think, I would've jumped on that exchange if I was mafia

The President Eden / Bona exchange you referred to there did not seem like serious Scum-to-Scum signalling, surely?

It just looked like shitposting between two players who have a weird incestuous relationship.

I don't see anything in particular scum could have "jumped on".

err, bona saying he'll jail eden after eden provoked him to? I would say that's a pretty easy thing to use if both are town to mess with eden's (and others) heads when they reread. At least I would've jumped on that, especially since eden was a pr claimant (even when he retracted)

[Kakarroto]

N3
1. Haze shoots VT Bona.
2. worcej commutes damo.
3. damo Doctor worcej.
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Now, please correct me if I got anything wrong, or forgot anything. Of course there might be a couple things that Town has done that hasn't been reported. Feel free to keep that information to yourself if you think it's better that way.

Did Damo claim a Doc save on Worcej?

Where is Sweet getting that from?

mafJamie would love to know what happened to the doc save. but would mafJamie ask this here so blatantly? hmmm ... I tend more towards no, I think.