Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]
Posted: Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:45 am
Bueller?
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We are now at 4-2 with 1 clear. 3-2 with no clear is worse, which is what we would expect if we knew there was a tough guy. 3-2 with 1 clear is better, which would be the likely outcome if we knew there was not a tough guy. However, there are some other possible outcomes, so I don't think this is an obvious case for a no-kill, but I think it is marginally beneficial to town, partially because I think there are reasons to believe the mafia do not have a tough guy.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:07 amCould you please elaborate as if I REALLY don't get it? Why do you think no-kill is correct tonight if we KNEW there was no tough guy, but wrong if we KNEW there was?bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:15 amThe downside is the risk of a tough guy, but I think we have more to gain than lose.Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:36 pm
Right.
2-1 is much better than 4-2. And we'd have a bunch more information to review.
##VOTE No-Kill
At 2-1, I don't think this voting mechanism is better as a replacement to a normal day, but once everyone has decided on their final vote, if both town are correct, which is the only way town wins, they would still win with this voting. However, I think it only helps if the mafia is forced to hammer first and does not know who the town plan to vote for. The case where it would help is if the mafia hammered town 1, but town 1 was going to vote for town 2. If town 2 does not hammer town 1, town 1 knows he was wrong.BunnyGo wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:12 amThis sounds to me like the following mistake:Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:32 amYes, that is what I meant. Thank you. Basically, if a town player votes wrong, the game ends (just like would happen at a final vote under normal circumstances). But because of that, any time a player votes and the game does not end, we learn something.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:27 am
I did not follow this, specifically "That way, if they are a Town player voting for a scum player, the game ends, as both scum players can hammer." Do you mean if a town player is voting for another town player, both scum can hammer?
Say we're all choosing lots from a hat. One lot is a winner, the others are losers. Do you want to go 1st, 2nd, last? Which gives you the best odds of winning?!
The first player has the worst odds (1/4 say), and everyone else gets improved odds when they fail! So you clearly don't want to go first!
Now repeat...the next "first" player now has the worst odds (1/3) so you clearly don't want to go second!
etc. etc.
But it's wrong. Because just because you MIGHT learn something based on the first person's vote, you might just learn you lose before you vote or have a chance to judge reactions.
I don't like this plan. I don't like it as a rule (but would be willing to do it if it WERE THE RULES). I especially don't like it sprung on us late.
I won't adhere to it, and I won't participate.
I suppose the case where the mafia would not try to hammer when they could hammer and win is a case where mafia would otherwise win, so not try to hammer can only help town.Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:25 amThat’s not really a bug. Think about it more.bozotheclown wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:07 amI see the potential benefit of this, but I am not sure it works here at 3-2 because the mafia would be taking a risk to try to end the game that way, which could lead to invalid assumptions. It could be done at 2-1.Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:32 am
Yes, that is what I meant. Thank you. Basically, if a town player votes wrong, the game ends (just like would happen at a final vote under normal circumstances). But because of that, any time a player votes and the game does not end, we learn something.
This makes more sense to me. ESPECIALLY since it isn't in the rules...there's nothing to stop scum from breaking the not rules and getting a double bite at the apple.damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:08 amI really wish Balki hadn't made either of his suggestions.
My head aches.
I'll deal with no kill in a separate post.
With regard to the lock vote I haven't exhaustively gone through all possible sequences looking at optimal strategies and possibilities but on what have done I think it is advantageous to scum.
In fact I propose that game day tomorrow we agree that nobody will end vote and if anybody does we simply vote them .
I'm glad she's doing well.rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:38 amI have a medical emergency with my daughter last night (she is well now, at home and sleeping) but I won't be much around today as I need to also sleep and take care of her.
I agree with no-kill today as it seems Mafia doesn't have a TG. Honestly, I doubt they will choose Koala over Bunny if they have a TG.
##vote no-kill
Correct
I am sure down to my soul that if I made a post with this same idea, you would all instant hammer me, so I'm pretty much jaded on this game.Balki Bartokomous wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:34 pmBy the way, I would suggest we implement something I learned about over at Mafia Universe ("MU"), At MU, LYLO/MYLO votes lock. So the moment someone votes at that stage of the game, their vote cannot change.
We could effectively do that by insisting that the person who votes first also hammer. That way, if they are a Town player voting for a scum player, the game ends, as both scum players can hammer.
The benefit of this system, is that we learn something after every vote. So let's say we have Bozo vote first. If he votes, and hammers, then we learn that either Bozo is scum, and/or Bozo is voting for scum.
Whomever Bozo voted for would then cross with Bozo, and another player would vote next. If they vote, and the game does not end, it means that they are not a Town player voting for scum, etc.
I think it is a valuable way to run a LYLO/MYLO scenario for town. There are certainly risks, but you also gain information and I think it is an easier way for town to pull out of a hole when we have to vote correctly twice in a row.
I suggest we No Kill now, and have BunnyGo pick the LYLO/MYLO voting order for tomorrow before this day ends. Ideally, BunnyGo should have players he sees as scummier voting earlier in the order.
"I will certainly be the night kill" says the man who will commit the nightkill.damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pmCorrect
Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.
Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.
IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL
@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.
If you are town kill Balki tomorrow.Chaqa wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:54 pm"I will certainly be the night kill" says the man who will commit the nightkill.damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pmCorrect
Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.
Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.
IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL
@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.
I wasn't weighting the need to kill Koala because of the possible item he will get, you have a valid point. So, TG is still a possibility. Do you think taking the risk today and going for a regular voting is the best choice?damo666 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pmCorrect
Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.
Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.
IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL
@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.