MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

You really should have waited. Balki saying he wasn’t hammering pretty much assured that I took down my end vote, and I imagine the others would have rolled the same way.

##unvote

We (this community) are notoriously lemmings when ends start happening. Damo and Chaqa were advocating for it and it drew your hammer into the mix.

You can Monday morning QB me all I want or you can just not suck and not make this game about scratching names randomly off a list.

[worcej]

Assuming worcej and BB are telling the truth there is only a 25% chance we have a gambler anyway. So, no more of this night voting bollocks.

Sorry you have had to claim worcej, it's bad luck but when you topped the night vote it was kind of inevitable.

##vote bo

Spare me the sorry and just own that you're part of the responsibility for outting a PR.

You're missed the situation and just went with a vote block after the fact.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

[ghug]

I think there should be a slight Mafia implication on myself in that scenario too BTW. I did push the hypothesis!

You're like a mini Balki.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I do not have much faith in worcej's role claim. It seems like a logical play from a scumbucket in his circumstance. But we can probably leave it alone for a bit and see if something mechanical shines further light there.

[ghug]

I have an off-topic question only for math geeks, with apologies to everyone else:

At any point in the game, given X Townies and Y Mafia remaining, when a Townie is unveiled, is it possible to figure out an answer to the exact probabilities of

A) The pusher was a Townie who made an earnest mistake and/or got unlucky.

B) Intentional mafia ploy.

??

Or maybe doing probabilistic analysis is breaking the intent of the game? Should it even be done if possible?

And now you're like a mini damo.

I think there are too many confounding factors for this to be useful unfortunately. There are times you can make good headway with good logic and statistics, and it's helpful to think about this stuff, but part of the charm of this game, speaking as one of the math geeks, is that you have to rely on your gut and the human element at a certain point. Townies can arrive at suspicious actions honestly, and sometimes at higher rates than the mafia who are actively aiming to avoid them.

[BunnyGo]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

What did you learn from your fake claim experiment? Can you share with the class?

[ghug]

If worcej were town wouldn't mafia have NKd him?

This question is particularly aimed at non-worcej voters.

How do you figure?

[BunnyGo]

This was a fascinating lunch break catching up. Keep it up everyone!

[KoalaAttack]

Oh wow...you really were at pub trivia this whole time?

Monday pub poker, Tuesday pub poker (different pub), Wednesday just drinking.

What a country...can organize legal gambling games in pubs...

Speaking of gambling: do you think there's one among us? Do you think they were paying attention? And do you think this parlay is worth scuttling our day 2 action? Would you have participated had you been around last night?

I would like to share a few thoughts on this with the group.

1. I believe there was a discussion earlier in the game where we have established than there is a higher probability than there is a Gambler vs than there is not – and if my math is correct, by a good margin.

2. Since the beginning of the game, there has been a clear & strong emphasis on folks being around and paying attention. There were even suggestions to vote for low contributors! Additionally, given that this game is made up of mostly experienced players, I would imagine an experience player who was assigned the Gambler role would make sure to be around and catch up for when their action are required. Wouldn't you all agree?

3. Even if there is no gambler, the discussion we had with yavozovic regarding "unveiling worcej has the extra benefit of giving us significant additional info on lfischl and yavuzovic, because if worcej is Mafia the other 2 must be Town" still applies. So, if one of the guesses has such big extra benefit, why wouldn't we go down that path?

4. Feels a tad like another attempt to derail the binding vote to me. Suspicious.



I personally think Mafia are worcej, ghug, and BunnyGo at this point (please don't take it personally if I nnamed you incorrectly – I simply have no information supporting a "better alternative hypothesis". I have no clue if saying this is smart of silly – maybe now I'll get 3 votes against me from these folks (plus Mafia bandwagon if I'm wrong). Oh well, it's a game, I'll give it a shot :)

[worcej]

Anyways... my ranting is done for now. Back to the point of my scum list:

• Chaqa's new "meta" is to maintain low effort, but this level of low effort is special in my eyes compared to last game. This game he's latched onto scumming me for a reason that has yet to be seen and continues to jump onto me once someone else actually puts forward a reason - he is following and enabling potential town pushes without actually risking any exposure. It's perfect low-effort scum play.
• Bo is coming off as opportunistic and did good effort to seal in the kill on pyxxy by forcing the issue of his lack of substance. I also see a connection of movement with Chaqa and some distancing occurring between the two, so I primarily want to flip Chaqa first because I see an easy scum pair with the two of them.
• My scumread of bozo is also because he's off meta right now and being more passive when it comes to analytics. It's weak, but I expected some type of effort towards what we think the PRs are to validate an approach to the game. Not seeing something like this by now makes me go a little

[Balki Bartokomous]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

What did you learn from your fake claim experiment? Can you share with the class?

I try to share things that I learn as I learn them.

[ghug]

Bunny and bozo neither voting during the night nor wanting to send worcej down the laundry chute today do be a little curious

There's nothing curious about not wanting to follow a decision made by a minority of players. I'm far more intrigued by anyone who doesn't scumread worcej contentedly jumping on this without argument.

[rdrivera2005]

@rdr I realise you find comments on your TM claim annoying. Maybe it's time to give it up. It's got to the stage where it's pretty pointless.

But this is exactly what I am tryng to do: make it pointless so I don't need to claim anymore.

Fair enough, I won't mention it again and assume you will not be TM claiming from next game on.

We have a deal.

[worcej]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

I enjoy getting a PR and feel like it was once again wasted because I was forced into a situation to claim through a shit method with shit reasoning.

The potential to be hammered made me frustrated and having to make a line where I'd have to claim. If the hammer wasn't a problem or concern, the claim would've came out 1 hour before EOD after I had to stealthily panic at EOD1 and had a claim written up and ready to send right at the last second if it became an issue.

[ghug]

We have the option to either forget this whole thing and play today like a normal day or hammer. We should not just sit here with most of the field being disincentivized to do anything for another 30 hours, though.

I’m happy to ##END and see if our gambler is good at this.

The threshold has been crossed.

I HARDCLAIM DOCTOR.

I fucking hate you all.

Ooh spicy

[Balki Bartokomous]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

I enjoy getting a PR and feel like it was once again wasted because I was forced into a situation to claim through a shit method with shit reasoning.

The potential to be hammered made me frustrated and having to make a line where I'd have to claim. If the hammer wasn't a problem or concern, the claim would've came out 1 hour before EOD after I had to stealthily panic at EOD1 and had a claim written up and ready to send right at the last second if it became an issue.

Did you breadcrumb?

[ghug]

You really should have waited. Balki saying he wasn’t hammering pretty much assured that I took down my end vote, and I imagine the others would have rolled the same way.

##unvote

Can we please kill bo?

[ghug]

Assuming worcej and BB are telling the truth there is only a 25% chance we have a gambler anyway. So, no more of this night voting bollocks.

Sorry you have had to claim worcej, it's bad luck but when you topped the night vote it was kind of inevitable.

##vote bo

It really wasn't...

[worcej]

I do not have much faith in worcej's role claim. It seems like a logical play from a scumbucket in his circumstance. But we can probably leave it alone for a bit and see if something mechanical shines further light there.

WIFOM - take your pick which glass you want.