MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[KoalaAttack]

##END

[BunnyGo]

I have an off-topic question only for math geeks, with apologies to everyone else:

At any point in the game, given X Townies and Y Mafia remaining, when a Townie is unveiled, is it possible to figure out an answer to the exact probabilities of

A) The pusher was a Townie who made an earnest mistake and/or got unlucky.

B) Intentional mafia ploy.

??

Or maybe doing probabilistic analysis is breaking the intent of the game? Should it even be done if possible?

Damo is usually game to run calculations.

I'm usually game to be a pedant and point out the answer is 100% or 0%.

But the question "should" it be done? Well, I don't find it helpful, but you do you. I'm loving seeing your thoughts here.

Sorry, but I fell asleep (based in east coast USA)

[BunnyGo]

But I guess this is a distraction from the original question: no...I didn't remember him, or that he apparently went to a debate tournament with durga as her arm candy. He has made 0 impression with me over these previous games.

This is the meanest thing you could say about Balki.

Sorry Balki...just being honest.

[BunnyGo]

@damo: how long was pub trivia?

[damo666]

I have an off-topic question only for math geeks, with apologies to everyone else:

At any point in the game, given X Townies and Y Mafia remaining, when a Townie is unveiled, is it possible to figure out an answer to the exact probabilities of

A) The pusher was a Townie who made an earnest mistake and/or got unlucky.

B) Intentional mafia ploy.

??

Or maybe doing probabilistic analysis is breaking the intent of the game? Should it even be done if possible?

Damo is usually game to run calculations.

I'm usually game to be a pedant and point out the answer is 100% or 0%.

But the question "should" it be done? Well, I don't find it helpful, but you do you. I'm loving seeing your thoughts here.

Sorry, but I fell asleep (based in east coast USA)

From a townspersons pov

A (X-1)/(Y+X-1)

B Y/(Y+X-1)

[damo666]

@damo: how long was pub trivia?

Too long, Monday evening, Tuesday evening, Wednesday afternoon. Slightly unwell.

[BunnyGo]

Here's bozo's unofficial nught count:

Unofficial night vote count:
lfischl (2): worcej, bo
worcej (4): Koala, lfischl, Chaqa, Hamilton Brian
damo (2): rd, Balki
Hamilton Brian (1): ghug

Here's the current actual situation:

Wagon # Voters
worcej (5) KoalaAttack* Chaqa bo_sox48 damo666* yavuzovic
Chaqa (1) worcej
bo_sox48 (1) ghug

of the people who didn't vote worcej last night:

bo had gone back and forth at night, and seemed game to participate in the scheme.

Yavu made 1 post all night consisting of "oh well"

and damo was at a 24 hour pub trivia and is now end hammering.

[BunnyGo]

@damo: how long was pub trivia?

Too long, Monday evening, Tuesday evening, Wednesday afternoon. Slightly unwell.

Oh wow...you really were at pub trivia this whole time?

[damo666]

@damo: how long was pub trivia?

Too long, Monday evening, Tuesday evening, Wednesday afternoon. Slightly unwell.

Oh wow...you really were at pub trivia this whole time?

Monday pub poker, Tuesday pub poker (different pub), Wednesday just drinking.

[BunnyGo]

Too long, Monday evening, Tuesday evening, Wednesday afternoon. Slightly unwell.

Oh wow...you really were at pub trivia this whole time?

Monday pub poker, Tuesday pub poker (different pub), Wednesday just drinking.

What a country...can organize legal gambling games in pubs...

Speaking of gambling: do you think there's one among us? Do you think they were paying attention? And do you think this parlay is worth scuttling our day 2 action? Would you have participated had you been around last night?

[BunnyGo]

I see. Thank you for explaining. Whatever you are planning, I hope it works out.

Something about this sticks in my craw. Is Yav town hoping that Balki is also town, because if both are town, they don't know it yet.

Yeah, no. Mafia, or mafia teammates, wouldn't be so brazen to make such a post so openly. Right?

bumping this note. To follow is Damo's response.

[BunnyGo]

I see. Thank you for explaining. Whatever you are planning, I hope it works out.

Something about this sticks in my craw. Is Yav town hoping that Balki is also town, because if both are town, they don't know it yet.

Yeah, no. Mafia, or mafia teammates, wouldn't be so brazen to make such a post so openly. Right?

Probably townyav assuming Balki is town.

Just possible it's a Yav scumslip.

Very unlikely both are scum.

[BunnyGo]

##vote yavu

[BunnyGo]

happy voting damo now too

[damo666]

Oh wow...you really were at pub trivia this whole time?

Monday pub poker, Tuesday pub poker (different pub), Wednesday just drinking.

What a country...can organize legal gambling games in pubs...

Speaking of gambling: do you think there's one among us? Do you think they were paying attention? And do you think this parlay is worth scuttling our day 2 action? Would you have participated had you been around last night?

The legal limits in pubs are ridiculously low. In practice games are illegal but I've never heard of any being done.

Gambler? Probably not, no idea, probably.

[damo666]

happy voting damo now too

Why?

[BunnyGo]

Gambler? Probably not, no idea, probably.

So you think probably no gambler

but you want to skip day 2?

why?

[BunnyGo]

happy voting damo now too

Why?

Because you weren't around last night, but are hammering worcej.

Because you had a conversation with HB that hasn't aged well.

[damo666]

Gambler? Probably not, no idea, probably.

So you think probably no gambler

but you want to skip day 2?

why?

Because worcej looks inevitable. Nothing to be gained from hanging about.

[damo666]

happy voting damo now too

Why?

Because you weren't around last night, but are hammering worcej. EXPLAINED.

Because you had a conversation with HB that hasn't aged well. HOW?