MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2341 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:58 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:36 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:14 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:26 pm


His D1 vote move from fish to pyx makes no sense from a scumBo. That is why I've eliminated him from my enquiries.

We have 1 mk. If we continue to dk from Balki/Bozo/Chaqa we can't lose.
I think I have asked this already, but do you believe bo_sox as mafia would think it would look better to end the day on a one vote wagon that he justified as participation pressure than to do what he did?
I agree that thate vote alone isn't a good reason to townread Bo, but looking his overall play is very similar to M76 where he was town and we fought pretty hard at some point.

I am starting to consider I might be wrong pairing Damo/Chaqa as I can't see a reason for them to buss each other this hard. I need to look if Chaqa and Bozo makes sense.

I need to re-read Balki, but those posts last night didn't seem scum faking, even knowing Balki is a good scum player.
What I remember about M76 was that bo_sox did not seem to be paying attention to what was happening while I was still in the game, but I do not think I strongly suspected he was mafia at any point. This game reminds me of M47, where bo_sox got me mis-killed to win because some players apparently thought he was incapable of acting like he was as mafia.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2342 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:02 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:04 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:07 pm
damo666 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:19 pm


I'm not. I'm giving him credit for days 1 and 3.
I don't understand what you think about rdrivera's votes D1 and D3 are inconsistent with him being mafia.
I think it unlikely scumrdr would start a new wagon if a scummate was at risk.
rdrivera's last vote was 2 hours before EOD, and lfischl only had 2 votes, I do not think that vote is a very good indicator.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2343 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:04 am

damo666 wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 8:06 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 7:24 pm
KoalaAttack wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 4:53 pm



Question for Bunny and others – wait, so you want me to claim my PR role?

Can someone please walk me through the Pros & Cons of claiming PR role vs keeping it ambiguous?

Specifically, Gambler is not the only role with high risk, depending on who said risk falls onto :)
Given the role possibilities, I do not see a reason to claim your role at this point, unless you think it is important enough for BunnyGo to know that you are willing to let the mafia know.
But what about simply gambler or not?
KoalaAttack is in the best position to decide what to do.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2344 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:05 am

KoalaAttack wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:10 am
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:33 pm
Why don't we RCV this bitch.

Candidates: Balki, bozo, bo_sox, Chaqa, damo, rivera

My ballot:
1 - Damo
2 - Balki
3- Bozo
4 - Bo_sox
5 - Rivera

Please submit your Mafia RCV ballot.
What is a RCV?
Ranked Choice Voting. How is civilized states do it (but really I wanted approval voting. And we ended up in a debate how to vote for the voting method. Arrows got involved)

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2345 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:07 am

Chaqa wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:33 pm
Why don't we RCV this bitch.

Candidates: Balki, bozo, bo_sox, Chaqa, damo, rivera

My ballot:
1 - Damo
2 - Balki
3- Bozo
4 - Bo_sox
5 - Rivera

Please submit your Mafia RCV ballot.
1 - bo_sox
2 - rdrivera
3 - damo
4 - Chaqa
5 - Balki

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2346 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:09 am

I’m in favor of the VTs pitching in. I have little time/energy left today, and will be in doctors office for the 7 hours leading up to EOD tomorrow and then trying to placate a pissed of kid (getting prodded and whatnot is gonna suck). So I won’t be here for EOD, and Drunk Bunny won’t be around to finish his investigations.

Good luck! I stand by my previous posts. Would be happiest voting:

Bozo, chaqa, Bo (in some order)

Would be willing to vote the others.


(There’s internet and stuff at the office, so when my kid is watching movies I’ll check in…but don’t count on me for any research or new thoughts today. You guys do it. )

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2347 Post by Chaqa » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:06 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:05 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 1:10 am
Chaqa wrote:
Wed Jan 25, 2023 9:33 pm
Why don't we RCV this bitch.

Candidates: Balki, bozo, bo_sox, Chaqa, damo, rivera

My ballot:
1 - Damo
2 - Balki
3- Bozo
4 - Bo_sox
5 - Rivera

Please submit your Mafia RCV ballot.
What is a RCV?
Ranked Choice Voting. How is civilized states do it (but really I wanted approval voting. And we ended up in a debate how to vote for the voting method. Arrows got involved)
I don't like approval voting as it doesn't show preference.
1

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2348 Post by Chaqa » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:09 am
I’m in favor of the VTs pitching in. I have little time/energy left today, and will be in doctors office for the 7 hours leading up to EOD tomorrow and then trying to placate a pissed of kid (getting prodded and whatnot is gonna suck). So I won’t be here for EOD, and Drunk Bunny won’t be around to finish his investigations.

Good luck! I stand by my previous posts. Would be happiest voting:

Bozo, chaqa, Bo (in some order)

Would be willing to vote the others.


(There’s internet and stuff at the office, so when my kid is watching movies I’ll check in…but don’t count on me for any research or new thoughts today. You guys do it. )
And if the mafia team is Damo and Balki?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2349 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:09 am

Chaqa wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:09 am
I’m in favor of the VTs pitching in. I have little time/energy left today, and will be in doctors office for the 7 hours leading up to EOD tomorrow and then trying to placate a pissed of kid (getting prodded and whatnot is gonna suck). So I won’t be here for EOD, and Drunk Bunny won’t be around to finish his investigations.

Good luck! I stand by my previous posts. Would be happiest voting:

Bozo, chaqa, Bo (in some order)

Would be willing to vote the others.


(There’s internet and stuff at the office, so when my kid is watching movies I’ll check in…but don’t count on me for any research or new thoughts today. You guys do it. )
And if the mafia team is Damo and Balki?
It just might be! Go make an actual fucking case that I can follow and understand (remember I'm Dumb Bunny (TM)). No ending...

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2350 Post by Chaqa » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:20 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:09 am
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 2:09 am
I’m in favor of the VTs pitching in. I have little time/energy left today, and will be in doctors office for the 7 hours leading up to EOD tomorrow and then trying to placate a pissed of kid (getting prodded and whatnot is gonna suck). So I won’t be here for EOD, and Drunk Bunny won’t be around to finish his investigations.

Good luck! I stand by my previous posts. Would be happiest voting:

Bozo, chaqa, Bo (in some order)

Would be willing to vote the others.


(There’s internet and stuff at the office, so when my kid is watching movies I’ll check in…but don’t count on me for any research or new thoughts today. You guys do it. )
And if the mafia team is Damo and Balki?
It just might be! Go make an actual fucking case that I can follow and understand (remember I'm Dumb Bunny (TM)). No ending...
Cases are dumb and don't actually catch mafia. They're performative.

I find town reads, I defend them, and I look at VCA and cross-check with my town reads and PR info to find scum.

RDR is town b/c he said he was VT. I believe him.

Bo_sox I have a gut read/meta read on, but I'm not interested in factually proving this as it's not really possible. That said, I would probably vote him if it meant keeping rivera alive, who I'm much more certain on.

Using those two facts, my own interactions with players, and VCA, I believe Damo is most likely mafia, and then probably Balki as well. Every interaction I've seen with Damo especially has been suspicious.

TBH right now I'm feeling really good about Bozo as well.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2351 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:38 am

I’ll try to find some time to do some ISOs tomorrow.

One thought in my head right now:

Let’s think about what the thread looked like D2 and N2 if Bo is Town. There was an awful lot of town on town fighting between Bo and ghug. Personal insults, mutual suspicion, OMGUS!, Bo actually walking away from the game for multiple days all because of a conflict with ghug.

Do you really think the mafia team would kill ghug N2 if Bo is Town? That uses a NK to dissolve the biggest Town on Town conflict in the game at that time.

I think it is much more likely that ghug is killed if Bo is scum. Because that would be the only scenario when the Bo/ghug conflict is very bad for scum Instead of great for them.
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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2352 Post by BunnyGo » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:07 am

Chaqa wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:20 am
BunnyGo wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:09 am
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:07 am


And if the mafia team is Damo and Balki?
It just might be! Go make an actual fucking case that I can follow and understand (remember I'm Dumb Bunny (TM)). No ending...
Cases are dumb and don't actually catch mafia. They're performative.

I find town reads, I defend them, and I look at VCA and cross-check with my town reads and PR info to find scum.

RDR is town b/c he said he was VT. I believe him.

Bo_sox I have a gut read/meta read on, but I'm not interested in factually proving this as it's not really possible. That said, I would probably vote him if it meant keeping rivera alive, who I'm much more certain on.

Using those two facts, my own interactions with players, and VCA, I believe Damo is most likely mafia, and then probably Balki as well. Every interaction I've seen with Damo especially has been suspicious.

TBH right now I'm feeling really good about Bozo as well.
Hmmm

I was rereading rdr and wondering if his extra frustration was "I can't believe I'm being caught as scum for THIS stupid thing"

What's the VCA?

Why bozo? I was just feeling bad about him. He's felt off to me, I can't tell if he's distracted or not.

Here's a question for you: damo knows that I read him based on engagement and interest in the game. Do you think he's intentionally faking it better this time?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2353 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:51 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:38 am
I’ll try to find some time to do some ISOs tomorrow.

One thought in my head right now:

Let’s think about what the thread looked like D2 and N2 if Bo is Town. There was an awful lot of town on town fighting between Bo and ghug. Personal insults, mutual suspicion, OMGUS!, Bo actually walking away from the game for multiple days all because of a conflict with ghug.

Do you really think the mafia team would kill ghug N2 if Bo is Town? That uses a NK to dissolve the biggest Town on Town conflict in the game at that time.

I think it is much more likely that ghug is killed if Bo is scum. Because that would be the only scenario when the Bo/ghug conflict is very bad for scum Instead of great for them.
I spent those two days expelling several pounds of intestinal blockage. I didn’t not play on purpose lol. And being sick doesn’t make me feel much better about ghug being his usual self toward me.

I don’t think dying is a bad result if it provides clarity that I cannot give while alive.
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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2354 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 4:54 am

Drunk bo doesn’t feel certain enough about anyone to vote right now

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2355 Post by bo_sox48 » Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:04 am

Drunk bo is having trouble understanding why rdrivera is getting a pass

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2356 Post by bozotheclown » Thu Jan 26, 2023 5:38 am

bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:30 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:27 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:25 pm
We could join you on ghug instead.
Sure. I just want 2-3 leading wagons that don’t include our PR claims on day 2. You know…it’s the little things.
I never really had any intention of keeping Chaqa up top, but I saw an opportunity to help worcej get his head back in the game and took it 🤷‍♀️

##VOTE ghug
ghug wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:52 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:30 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:27 pm


Sure. I just want 2-3 leading wagons that don’t include our PR claims on day 2. You know…it’s the little things.
I never really had any intention of keeping Chaqa up top, but I saw an opportunity to help worcej get his head back in the game and took it 🤷‍♀️

##VOTE ghug
Explain this, please.

You were quick to jump on the "I'm glad someone else finally sees it" train when votes started coming, but there's been suspicion of me for a while and none of it had come from you.
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:53 pm
ghug wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:52 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:30 pm


I never really had any intention of keeping Chaqa up top, but I saw an opportunity to help worcej get his head back in the game and took it 🤷‍♀️

##VOTE ghug
Explain this, please.

You were quick to jump on the "I'm glad someone else finally sees it" train when votes started coming, but there's been suspicion of me for a while and none of it had come from you.
If I throw suspicion at you I have to talk to you so I’d rather just keep it in my head until I’m confident it may matter
ghug wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:58 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:53 pm
ghug wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:52 pm


Explain this, please.

You were quick to jump on the "I'm glad someone else finally sees it" train when votes started coming, but there's been suspicion of me for a while and none of it had come from you.
If I throw suspicion at you I have to talk to you so I’d rather just keep it in my head until I’m confident it may matter
Convenient.
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 5:10 pm
ghug wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:58 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Fri Jan 20, 2023 4:53 pm


If I throw suspicion at you I have to talk to you so I’d rather just keep it in my head until I’m confident it may matter
Convenient.
If you were less of an uncompromising asshole toward me in everything you do maybe I’d actually be up to playing the game with you instead of doing all I can to ignore your existence for my own sanity’s sake. But rather than looking in the mirror and and acknowleding that maybe, just maybe, you’re the one who chooses to make other people feel the way that they do about you, you continue to be the way that you are. I sincerely wish nothing but the best for you, but toward me you are an unabated piece of shit and it blows my mind that you haven’t considered that I actually go far out of my way to avoid any interaction with you.

See yall tomorrow.
bo_sox's reaction was not warranted by anything ghug said, so I assume it was just a scum ploy to avoid dealing with pressure from ghug.
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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2358 Post by KoalaAttack » Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:47 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:38 am
I’ll try to find some time to do some ISOs tomorrow.

One thought in my head right now:

Let’s think about what the thread looked like D2 and N2 if Bo is Town. There was an awful lot of town on town fighting between Bo and ghug. Personal insults, mutual suspicion, OMGUS!, Bo actually walking away from the game for multiple days all because of a conflict with ghug.

Do you really think the mafia team would kill ghug N2 if Bo is Town? That uses a NK to dissolve the biggest Town on Town conflict in the game at that time.

I think it is much more likely that ghug is killed if Bo is scum. Because that would be the only scenario when the Bo/ghug conflict is very bad for scum Instead of great for them.


I don't agree – your reasoning above is precisely why it would be smart for Mafia to kill Bo – a perfect frame, no?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2359 Post by KoalaAttack » Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:55 am

Uh oh. So good news is I know how to do proper data analysis. The bad news is it feels like too much work and not fun and I am not motivated enough to do it. Maybe I should take the full role-playing approach?

- If I am a Watcher, I will ISO all the comments each of the suspects make about each other and gauge the sincerity of the accuser.

- If I am a Tracker, I will ISO all the comments each of the suspects makes about each other and gauge the innocence of the accused.

- If I am a Civil War Veteran, I will vote on whosever's name comes up first on my feed tomorrow.

- If I am a Gambler, what's your favorite number? I have a hat.

- If I'm a Gun Smith, can I give one of my guns to myself?
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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2360 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:57 am

KoalaAttack wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 6:47 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Jan 26, 2023 3:38 am
I’ll try to find some time to do some ISOs tomorrow.

One thought in my head right now:

Let’s think about what the thread looked like D2 and N2 if Bo is Town. There was an awful lot of town on town fighting between Bo and ghug. Personal insults, mutual suspicion, OMGUS!, Bo actually walking away from the game for multiple days all because of a conflict with ghug.

Do you really think the mafia team would kill ghug N2 if Bo is Town? That uses a NK to dissolve the biggest Town on Town conflict in the game at that time.

I think it is much more likely that ghug is killed if Bo is scum. Because that would be the only scenario when the Bo/ghug conflict is very bad for scum Instead of great for them.


I don't agree – your reasoning above is precisely why it would be smart for Mafia to kill Bo – a perfect frame, no?
There is almost always a “WIFOM” response like this in a game of mafia. Any time we can identify a choice that would make sense if one particular player is scum, we can also respond “well, maybe the mafia team did it to frame them.”

I can only speak from experience here. I find it is more often true that scum make kills that are optimal for them. It is less often true that scum make kills hoping that they will be perceived in some specific way as to help them “frame” someone else. The “frame” theory relies on the town to interpret a kill a certain way that is too unpredictable.

This is a good time to bring up Occam’s Razor:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occam's_razor

Is it possible that a different scum team killed ghug for entirely different reasons, or killed ghug thinking it would ultimately “frame” Bo? Yes of course. But we are dealing probabilities here. I believe it is less likely that a scum team without Bo on it chooses to kill a non-PR claimer who also happens to be half of the biggest town-on-town conflict in the game. I would think a non-Bo scum team would be more likely to embrace the conflict between ghug and Bo and use that conflict to mischop Bo with thug’s help, rather than assuming the town will feel some certain way about the NK and then try to chop Bo without the biggest advocate for that chop (ghug).

Why try to frame Bo when they could just keep ghug around and allow ghug to lead us to chop Bo?
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