MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

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Balki Bartokomous
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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2081 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:15 pm

KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:24 pm
Well, with all this talk of pairing and unpairing, I would really like to hear their 2nd best Mafia guess from all the VT suspects, not just the one vote.
My advice to you: do not put much stock into anyone's answers to these kinds of questions right now. Scum will answer just to deceive you. There is no impact of anyone's answer. Nobody thinks that you will simply follow their reads.

It is more important to ask VTs why they think the things that they say they think, and judge whether their reasons appear sincere or pretend.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2082 Post by KoalaAttack » Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:56 pm

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:15 pm
KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:24 pm
Well, with all this talk of pairing and unpairing, I would really like to hear their 2nd best Mafia guess from all the VT suspects, not just the one vote.
My advice to you: do not put much stock into anyone's answers to these kinds of questions right now. Scum will answer just to deceive you. There is no impact of anyone's answer. Nobody thinks that you will simply follow their reads.

It is more important to ask VTs why they think the things that they say they think, and judge whether their reasons appear sincere or pretend.
Yes, of course – I thought the "why" was implied, but answering without a "why" is also a kind of interesting info!

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2083 Post by bozotheclown » Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:59 pm

bo_sox48 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:41 pm
Don’t use logic with them damo; it will somehow make you look bad when I flip town.
Does this mean you agree that what damo said was a good reason to town read you based on your D1 vote? Do you think a mafia is typically going to get more town credit ending D1 bussing a teammate on a single vote wagon than actively participating in the vote at EOD?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2084 Post by KoalaAttack » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:00 pm

I just read every suspect in ISO, and one thing re Bo stands out – everyone has their Mafia theories, but http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... r=bo_sox48 has nothing but resigned fatalism and shutting down other's theories tonight.

If they are resigned to their fate of dying "for the good of the town" as they said, why not at least try to contribute some theories – especially since once we flip them as Town we would know to trust them?

A bit Suspicious.
1

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2085 Post by bo_sox48 » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:08 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:59 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:41 pm
Don’t use logic with them damo; it will somehow make you look bad when I flip town.
Does this mean you agree that what damo said was a good reason to town read you based on your D1 vote? Do you think a mafia is typically going to get more town credit ending D1 bussing a teammate on a single vote wagon than actively participating in the vote at EOD?
You're gonna have to ask some subjectively good questions to at least three other people before I answer anything you ask me again.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2086 Post by bo_sox48 » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:08 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:48 pm
KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:24 pm
Well, with all this talk of pairing and unpairing, I would really like to hear their 2nd best Mafia guess from all the VT suspects, not just the one vote.
Chaqa Bozo

Pretty sure now.
What do you see that rules out rdrivera?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2087 Post by bozotheclown » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:18 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:01 pm
What can be gleaned from voting [imo]

Day 1

Balki - nothing
Bozo - nothing
Bo - towny as previously argued
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - he voted for me with votes at 2 each for fish,Bunny, ghug, worcej; he could have voted any of those 3 town to help fish so I would argue this is towny

Day 2

Balki - nothing
Bozo - arguably not scummate with bo
Bo - nothing
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - nothing

Day 3

Balki - moved off rdr when rdr got his second vote, slight suspicion only
Bozo - as per D2
Bo - kinda confirms not scummate with Bozo
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - again arguably not scummate of fish

Summary

Bo and rdr probably town so scumpair in {Chaqa, Bozo, Balki} in that order.
Are you town reading rdrivera for not making a vote that could look like he was protecting a teammate who was in a 4 way tie with 2 votes 2 hours before EOD? What about rdrivera's D3 vote make it likely he is not mafia, not voting for bo_sox when the vote was 3-2? Even if he would do that to try to save lfischl, which I doubt, are you basing your read on a certainty that bo_sox is town?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2088 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:28 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:10 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:55 pm
I don’t know how that’s in italics 💀
I was so impressed that it was.
Also my thought process lol

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2089 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:30 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:15 pm
My top scumpair right now is Damo/Chaqa as this could explain lfischl vote D1 on Worcej (to protect Damo) and his scumread on Chaqa D2 without a real vote. But they are voting each other now which is not something I would expect. 🤔

I am also starting to get some bad vibes from Bozo tunneling on Bo this way. Both Bo and Chaqa keep using appeal to emotion. I usually think it's a townie tell (see Worcej and Koala), but at this point it could be stagged. I believed Bo first outburst so I am still giving him some credit. Damo and Bozo makes sense?

I will keep with my gut feeling and vote Damo.
We know Bo can use emotions as a stagged response.

I believe Chaqa is capable of staging emotional pulls - he did something along the lines of shaming me for going after kgray, who I scummed for being distancing from people say she was a great town player, when they were both scum together.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2090 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:34 pm

KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:00 pm
I just read every suspect in ISO, and one thing re Bo stands out – everyone has their Mafia theories, but http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?g= ... r=bo_sox48 has nothing but resigned fatalism and shutting down other's theories tonight.

If they are resigned to their fate of dying "for the good of the town" as they said, why not at least try to contribute some theories – especially since once we flip them as Town we would know to trust them?

A bit Suspicious.
I see what you're seeing, but bo is not the type of player to use defeatism as a defense. He has been far more attack oriented in the past as scum and would take the bull by the horns instead of lying down.

I also think the challenges he is issuing to people's statements are forcing more out from the people saying pairs without much reasoning (damo).

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2091 Post by bozotheclown » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:36 pm

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:15 pm
My top scumpair right now is Damo/Chaqa as this could explain lfischl vote D1 on Worcej (to protect Damo) and his scumread on Chaqa D2 without a real vote. But they are voting each other now which is not something I would expect. 🤔

I am also starting to get some bad vibes from Bozo tunneling on Bo this way. Both Bo and Chaqa keep using appeal to emotion. I usually think it's a townie tell (see Worcej and Koala), but at this point it could be stagged. I believed Bo first outburst so I am still giving him some credit. Damo and Bozo makes sense?

I will keep with my gut feeling and vote Damo.
What am I doing that you consider "tunneling" vs. stating why I believe bo_sox is mafia?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2092 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:36 pm

The re-read of Balki this phase has left me feeling very off from him because he has used my PR claim as a reasoning to not execute the plan when he was already second guessing it before I claimed:
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:46 pm
I'm not going to end hammer.

It would be different if everyone bought in last night, but they really didn't.

I tried my best to make the stakes feel real during the night so that the information is meaningful, but now that we're in Day 2, I am going to vote for who I think is most likely to be scum.

I do see a reasonable argument to chop worcej considering that if we have a gambler, they are likely wagering on worcej. I find that logic compelling only if worcej is squarely in our POE and we feel like we're going to need to chop worcej at some point to get to the answer.

All that said, I am leaning towards worcej being town right now. Still trying to sort my feelings on that.
This post came 2 minutes before I actually claimed:
worcej wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:48 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:38 pm
We have the option to either forget this whole thing and play today like a normal day or hammer. We should not just sit here with most of the field being disincentivized to do anything for another 30 hours, though.

I’m happy to ##END and see if our gambler is good at this.
The threshold has been crossed.

I HARDCLAIM DOCTOR.

I fucking hate you all.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2093 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:39 pm

Again - this phases' dialogue from Balki comes off that the claim was a central part of his reasoning.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2094 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:43 pm

worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:36 pm
The re-read of Balki this phase has left me feeling very off from him because he has used my PR claim as a reasoning to not execute the plan when he was already second guessing it before I claimed:
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:46 pm
I'm not going to end hammer.

It would be different if everyone bought in last night, but they really didn't.

I tried my best to make the stakes feel real during the night so that the information is meaningful, but now that we're in Day 2, I am going to vote for who I think is most likely to be scum.

I do see a reasonable argument to chop worcej considering that if we have a gambler, they are likely wagering on worcej. I find that logic compelling only if worcej is squarely in our POE and we feel like we're going to need to chop worcej at some point to get to the answer.

All that said, I am leaning towards worcej being town right now. Still trying to sort my feelings on that.
This post came 2 minutes before I actually claimed:
worcej wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 4:48 pm
bo_sox48 wrote:
Thu Jan 19, 2023 3:38 pm
We have the option to either forget this whole thing and play today like a normal day or hammer. We should not just sit here with most of the field being disincentivized to do anything for another 30 hours, though.

I’m happy to ##END and see if our gambler is good at this.
The threshold has been crossed.

I HARDCLAIM DOCTOR.

I fucking hate you all.
I don't know what you mean by "off."

But I'm here to answer questions if you have them.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2095 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:45 pm

I think, @worcej, I already answered what you are asking about at page 100:

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 2:57 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 1:43 am
I still have Balki as a strong Mafia suspect for the last fake group action (in addition to the lfi alternative searching in the last vote I mentioned)
We should talk about this.

Here is why I pushed the N2 vote idea:

1. Because only Town potentially benefits from predicting the D2 kill. There was no possible scum role that might also benefit. So by moving the vote up to Night 1 instead of Day 2, we had a chance to get Gambler an item without a disadvantage.
2. Because our percentage Town was likely to be slightly higher during N1 than it was on D2 (because Scum were more likely to kill a player than Town during the night). (This only applies if we have a robust vote with full participation)
3. Whether we actually followed the plan or not, it seemed like a useful way to spend our time during the night: forcing people to make reads and vote, and the vote data might wind up being useful.

Once Day 2 began, I had a little bit of interest in following through with the plan — like I may have cast a vote for worcej if I was really undecided about two vote candidates — but there were some reasons not to treat the night vote as decisive:

(1) There was not full buy in from players. Lots of players discredited the idea or did not participate. It didn’t feel like a robust voting process.
(2) I definitely didn’t want to vote END early before everyone had a chance to report potential night information and before worcej had a chance to claim a PR.

Then, of course, worcej did claim a PR, and a third consideration overwhelmed all: worcej made a claim that we were likely to learn more about as the game went on.

So, maybe this is all true, or maybe there is a sinister scum plan for all this. If you think there is a sinister scum plan, you need to consider the scum motivation for what I did and then evaluate whether that explanation is more likely than the one I just gave.

If worcej had turned out to be Scum, then I can think of a pretty convincing Scum motivation. I wanted to have a vote to kill, and then changed my mind after the vote leader was on my Scum teammate. But we now know that worcej is Town. So with that in mind, what is the Scum motivation that makes these actions suspicious?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2096 Post by bozotheclown » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:47 pm

damo666 wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 5:01 pm
What can be gleaned from voting [imo]

Day 1

Balki - nothing
Bozo - nothing
Bo - towny as previously argued
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - he voted for me with votes at 2 each for fish,Bunny, ghug, worcej; he could have voted any of those 3 town to help fish so I would argue this is towny

Day 2

Balki - nothing
Bozo - arguably not scummate with bo
Bo - nothing
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - nothing

Day 3

Balki - moved off rdr when rdr got his second vote, slight suspicion only
Bozo - as per D2
Bo - kinda confirms not scummate with Bozo
Chaqa - nothing
rdr - again arguably not scummate of fish

Summary

Bo and rdr probably town so scumpair in {Chaqa, Bozo, Balki} in that order.
Do you consider lfischl's D2 vote, or are you sure all the wagons were town when lfischl voted D2?

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2097 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:49 pm

@Balki - I am talking more the entire dialogue between you and Koala this phase comes off as you using the claim to justify your lack of hammer.

I think you caught the error and are trying to course correct now.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2098 Post by KoalaAttack » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:55 pm

KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 3:32 am
C) The entire thing re worcej and the doctor claim feels like hindsight logic.
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Wed Jan 18, 2023 2:59 am
Let’s do a binding vote during this night phase about who we chop tomorrow. Then we end hammer tomorrow the leading vote getter (narrow exception here if results of night actions reveals a wolf).
This way, we ensure that our gambler (if we have one) gets their items, and we vote to kill at a time when a greater majority of the game is Town.
##vote BunnyGo
Note how you went out of your way to spell out the "narrow exception" in case the results of the night actions reveal a wolf. But you didn't do the same caveat for in case the vote-winner claims. Because you didn't think of it ahead of time? I find that unlikely – you seem to be a very analytical thinker about this game.

KoalaAttack wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:54 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 4:11 am
I don’t follow your logic here. Why is it that Scum!Balki doesn’t want to spell out some caveat where the target of a night vote claims a PR?
You are saying I am analytical. Okay, I agree. But your conclusion does not seem to have a rational theory to sort Scum!Balki from Town!Balki.
There is no reason I need to spell out every potential caveat. But a great reason Town!Balki would not spell out that caveat is it practically asks whomever winds up being the leading vote getter to claim a PR (even if they are scum). There is no reason Town!Balki would include that caveat.
I don’t understand at all the point you are trying to make with this question.
You said “narrow exception” which I take as the only exception - adding a new exception after the fact is Suspicious


Yeah, so this thread is still unaddressed – your initial response was "I don't understand" and after my follow-up the topic of conversation moved on to discussion of confirmed Townies being Inquisitors, kind of skipping this entire bit.

And worcej just expressed the same Suspicion, if I understand it correctly.

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2099 Post by worcej » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:57 pm

Anyways, my vote for the next phase is Balki

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Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2100 Post by KoalaAttack » Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:58 pm

worcej wrote:
Tue Jan 24, 2023 9:49 pm
@Balki - I am talking more the entire dialogue between you and Koala this phase comes off as you using the claim to justify your lack of hammer.

I think you caught the error and are trying to course correct now.
Agreed.

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