Mafia 1016: America's Past-Crime [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

I am sorry I missed EOD, I thought I would be able to get back online before the day ended.

[bozotheclown]

Jose Canseco once said “Are we to say that any individual who's on steroids that has an angry moment is due to steroids? What about the individual who gets angry and kills someone who's not on steroids? What do we blame it on now?” He also said “My motive, and I will make it clear and look you in the eyes, is to attack major league baseball. That's my motive.” With these nuggets of wisdom in mind, the players surround Damo, his constant discussions of mathematics making them suspect that he’s really a scrawny nerd, capable of playing professional sports only thanks to banned substances. He screams, loudly proclaiming his innocence, while glancing desperately around the room looking for his bat in the hopes of defending himself. The other players begin swinging, and in moments he’s lying cold on the floor.

The dirty work done, the players begin to collect themselves and notice brainbomb is missing. The players find his Nikia Brick™ on the floor, with two unread text messages. The first is from his good friend Jose Canseco, and it reads “been playing for 30 years .love strip poker i cheat and win”. The second is from a blocked number, and reads simply “YES”. Someone begins looking through his phone to examine further and discovers that he’s blown through his 200 free texts for the month asking all of his contacts if any of the mafia voted for Jamie today. This madness was somewhat typical for him, but the players begin to suspect that his absence has little to do with strip poker, and that they’ll never see him again.

DAMO666 has died. He was TOM GLAVINE, a VANILLA TOWNIE.

BRAINBOMB has died. He was GEORGE MITCHELL, the TOWN QUESTION ASKER. He asked: "have any mafia voted for Jamiet99uk today?" The answer is YES.

Day 2 has begun. You may now post.

There is a mafia between vecna, bona and kgray then.

Are you saying you think celaph and Durga are town?

[bozotheclown]

There is a mafia between vecna, bona and kgray then.

Incorrect.

Are you saying you think Vecna and kgray are town?

[bozotheclown]

Incorrect.

Well idk. That's not the full list of Jamie voters.

Also there could be any amount of mafia in the group.

OK, I see what you were saying.

[Bonatogether]

There is a mafia between vecna, bona and kgray then.

Incorrect.

Are you saying you think Vecna and kgray are town?

As I elaborated in the post after, he left out celaph and darg, so that group of 3 was meaningless.

[Bonatogether]

Well idk. That's not the full list of Jamie voters.

Also there could be any amount of mafia in the group.

OK, I see what you were saying.

Cool

[bozotheclown]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

[Maniac]

Maniac’s blog April 3rd 2003

So we lost two dear friends last night. BB ‘The King’ and Damo ‘The Devil’ Davis. I’m heartbroken, two fine talent men, great player and great men too. Our thoughts and prayers go out to their friends, family, team mates and fans who are in mourning this morning. But we’ve lost something more than two fine men. Bass-ball died a little more last night too. This cancerous cocktail of drugs and cheating just added murder to its rap-sheet. We must work in unison to cut out this cancer.

BB’s phone has given us a clue to who where one or more of the druggies are hiding. Bone, Celaph, Durga, Kgray and Vecna are now the pool with the most attention. Whilst we should concentrate on this pool let’s not forget this reaction to the news that two fine men lost their lives.

RIP brain, and RIP damo

Does anyone see any crumbs from brain?

Was he expecting the mafia to say ‘yeah we notice he coded he was on to us therefore we killed him’?

It looks like dargorygel saw a crumb and helped kill BB the King and his ego is really saying ‘did anyone ELSE see a crumb, aren’t I clever’.

If we voted outside the list dargorygel would get my vote.

[Bonatogether]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

There is at least one scum in the 5

[bozotheclown]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

There is at least one scum in the 5

Yes, that is the 1 in (1 + 0.2*4)/5. In other words, knowing there is 1 scum in the five, and assuming a 1 in 5 chance of scum in every other slot, there would be, on average, 1.8 scum in the five and 1.2 scum in the remaining six.

[Bonatogether]

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

There is at least one scum in the 5

Yes, that is the 1 in (1 + 0.2*4)/5. In other words, knowing there is 1 scum in the five, and assuming a 1 in 5 chance of scum in every other slot, there would be, on average, 1.8 scum in the five and 1.2 scum in the remaining six.

Oh, I misunderstood. Sorry.

[lfischl]

I have not done the math, but it seems clear that we should vote from the five. Otherwise brain's question is wasted?

There could be 1 scum in those 5 (20%) and 2 scum in the other 6 (33%).

However, if we take the known fact that 1 of those 5 is scum, and assume the probable location for the other 2 scum is randomly distributed among the other 10 slots, the probability of hitting scum in the group of 5 is (1 + 0.2*4)/5 (36%) and the probability of hitting scum in the remaining 6 is 0.2*6/6 (20%).

If the mafia is smart they will never kill one of the Jaime voters because that narrows the pool. We have to vote one of the 5.

[lfischl]

Bona you watching this thread for posts every single minute?

[Bonatogether]

Bona you watching this thread for posts every single minute?

Why do you ask?

[celaph]

Ultimately I think bb's question says very little about the 5 of us that were voting Jamie. We're sitting at 8 town 3 scum giving us two miskills before kilo. I agree with lfischl's comment that scum is unlikely to kill any of us. That is especially true as they have to pick their kill before we finalize the dk and so they can't respond well to us DK'ing scum assuming the wagons are close.

I think the more useful implications are around Jamie. The fact that scum was on his wagon makes him more likely to be town. If someone on that wagon was bussing my gut would be kgray given how she left it for Damo.

[celaph]

@rdr can you talk a bit more about your thought process in the last hour of the day?

With roughly an hour to go you voted Damo. The only comment you made previously regarding him is that you thought Damo was laying low. Is that why you voted him? Your only comments after catching up expressed concern with the way that the Damo wagon formed yet you left your vote there seemingly content.

With roughly 4 minutes to go you expressed in interest in moving your vote to from Damo to Bozo if others were interested too. Where did that desire for a bozo wagon come from? He was a viable wagon an hour before EoD when you first voted Damo. He was still viable though less so when you commented about the formation of Damo's wagon. And he had 3 votes on him for over 20 minutes before you expressed interest in voting him.

[Vecna]

Well, this is a pretty bad start for town. A town DK and a lame question. I don't know what is acceptable for the GMs, but the group of three idea was better and Bozo suggestion was a lot better

Have to agree. Asking if Jamiet was scum wouldve been much better. At least then we wouldve known if it was a bus vote or scum were tagging along on the thing I started.

Even though Kgray was very invested in the EoD outcome, I do not think it was her.

Bonas response to all of it seemed pretty calm and not panicked at all. More inclined to think its not him either.

Durgas flip is probably one that will give the most answers (and look pretty bad on me if it does turn out to be the scum on the list lol).

Celaph is the one ill probably gun for personally. Especially if ive been wrong about Jamiet - the way he voted there, and the weird way he pushed Jamiet for the comments just felt odd

[Vecna]

Vecna also town maybe? Inb4 I'm just getting buddied hard

Yeah, why are you not suspicious for the way ive been saving you?

Id expect you to be highly suspicious of that fact, especially since you tend to lay low as scum, and you know I know that.

[Vecna]

I don't really get why brain townread damo for being helpful about the question asker but then didn't ask damo's suggested question?

But regardless, there's at least one scum in Vecna, Durga, celaph and Bona (and me, for the rest of town). I think Bona's the towniest of them and tbh Durga is probably the scummiest? Hopefully she really does play more tomorrow. I'm not getting very towny vibes from celaph but I'm not nearly as suspicious of him as I was last game (pre-buddying). Vecna seems like normal Vecna except not as skeptical of me as I expect. I don't know if I'll ever get over my paranoia of him buddying me, though.

Can someone who cares about numbers give some input on whether we should vote in this group today?

Before damo tortures you with weird shit (lol, wait, edit time, he cant, due to .....reasons):

We cannot really tell whether its numerically accurate to vote in this group, since we do not know its its 1 scum or 1+.

For anyone with a town pov:
3 scum in 10 other remaining players of the entire game (30%)
If youre outside of that group, assuming 1 scum in the group: 1 in 5 = 20%
If youre town inside of that group, assuming 1 scum in the group: 1 in 4 = 25%

Naturally those numbers double or tripple if theres more than 1 scum in the group.

Im pretty sure were voting inside that group today.

[Vecna]

In the group of 5, it's the person who I view as most likely to be scum.

Aye... I would guess that. But what makes durga the scummiest?

celaph hasn't been really doing much, but their tone is good and I've done well there before

kgray feels like kgray from previous games (i've never played with scum!kgray, though), so while I'm not gonna bet anything on it, I think she's town

vecna went for jamie pretty aggressively, which I don't see scum doing unless they think they can get an easy miskill (admittedly not impossible here)

durga hasn't done anything and doesn't feel like durga from previous games (again, I've never played with scum!durga)

Going after Jamiet for an easy misskill as scum.....I guess people unaware of his old meta could make those statements lol

For your information: Whenever town-jamiet was being unfairly accused, he always used to go completely ballistic and would townclear himself very easily with his rage. Going after him for an easy misskill is not something that happens.

The fact he only did this once (against durga, where he could muster a genuine outburst because his towngame was insulted) is one of the reasons why im suspicious still. But then again, he has tried to control this habit more recently, even though its one of his most effective tools lol.