MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

Like it's ridiculous how long this idea has persisted

You haven't flipped, obvtowned, or been scanned by a Cop. Why's it ridiculous that this idea has persisted?
The whole point of that exercise was to rule you out as a possible suspect because my initial thought was that ghug would prefer to distance from his partner on the other wagon to give the partner some cover.
Unfortunately it didn't work, there's too many conflating factors.

All but one of us doesn't know if I've been scanned by a cop.

[e.m.c^42]

I see daddy's watchin' over us from high up above in heaven, may his soul be horrendously restless over how his team is doing.

[Bonatogether]

Like it's ridiculous how long this idea has persisted

You haven't flipped, obvtowned, or been scanned by a Cop. Why's it ridiculous that this idea has persisted?
The whole point of that exercise was to rule you out as a possible suspect because my initial thought was that ghug would prefer to distance from his partner on the other wagon to give the partner some cover.
Unfortunately it didn't work, there's too many conflating factors.

Also wasn't there a time a while back when people said that I was going to be nked at some point because it'd be impossible to dk me?

[Donny Dude]

##vote e.m.c

I get why chaqa is deadset on this wagon but why are you?

I want competitive wagons, so I'm going to hold off on voting celaph for later.

I would start a worcej wagon because of my theory that if HB is scum (which turned out to be right), worcej is scum, but apparently some people think he townslipped. I'll try it tomorrow.

Did you read the part about worcej?
Why does that annoy you so much?
Why wait to vote for who you think is scum?
What will you try tomorrow?
I get the impression bona just wants to sheep someone and not get flak for starting a wagon.

[Donny Dude]

Bozo, what are you thinking?
What do you make of the hb worcej townslip?

[bozotheclown]

I would like an answer to this as well, since H and R are nowhere near each other on the keyboard, and there is only so many times you can repeatedly mix up two people until one would think you don't really believe the case you are pushing or that you are operating off a fed template, lmao

I do believe it but I can't keep them straight.

I don't understand how you can be mixing up HR and Hamilton with regard to which one you think was more likely to be scum with worcej, especially since Hamilton is no longer in the game.

I tried to find the original of this idea, and I think it was this N2 post from Donny that your responded to:

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

Though I direct this at Eden, bona and aaro feel free to chime in.

If there was a similar occurance (SvT, then mafia add a S to split the vote and get the town out), then worcej and Hellenic would both be scum. I think we should vote one out the day after we vote brain so that we can determine if that's what happened. There's already some sus on worcej, so he's a viable target for this even without this.

N3 you repeated this to idea to worcej:

idk if you're scum but flipping you reveals HR's alignment too imo. it's 2 flips for 1 vote

How does it reveal HR’s?

cause scum may have pulled the stuff they did on d2 on d1 as well. It worked the first time so they thought they could do it again.

However, at the beginning of D4, you switched the association to Hamilton:

To add on, my brain is telling me that this could have been an attempt to out the cop by a scum hb.

I'm starting to think that Vecna's gut react that HB was trying to tie the wagons is right, and that we just read something else into it because of course we did, mafia would never be so blatant.

##vote hb

if hb is scum then worcej is scum

Then, when questioned about it, you admitted your mistake, but kept voting for Hamilton:

##vote hb

if hb is scum then worcej is scum

Why?

wait I screwed up I mean hr.

but i'm still gonna vote hb

Later D4 you cited a discussion aarodactyl and BunnyGo were having as your reason for thinking Hamilton and worcej were scum teammates:

Think about it a bit more.

Actually, I'm not you, so I'll be explicit.

It seems like you're presenting an argument that HB is scum. Part of this argument seems to be based on HB trying to pull votes off ghug near EOD2. You quoted a piece showing HB doing the same thing to pull people off of ND EOD1. That would suggest worcej is scum.

this is literally my argument for my worcej and hb are scum

It seems to me that you were going along with one theory to vote out one of worcej or HR, but switched to another theory to argue that worcej should be voted out after Hamilton flipped scum. The fact that you seem to be mixing up these theories make me think that you do not believe either one.

##VOTE Bonatogether

[bozotheclown]

Bozo, what are you thinking?
What do you make of the hb worcej townslip?

I think Hamilton apparently mixing up who replaced Durga means worcej and Fluminator are probably town. The only other possibilities are that Hamilton was thinking far ahead in distancing himself from worcej and/or Fluminator, or that worcej and Fluminator are both scum, and Hamilton legitimately forgot which one of his teammates replaced Durga, both of which do not seem very likely.

[bozotheclown]

Like it's ridiculous how long this idea has persisted

HR explained why we should not dismiss the possibility that there were 3 scum wagons D2:

I'm very interested in the worcej take about Bona "not being scum thanks to VCA", because I really don't see how that's the case.

If one looks at EoD2, when there were two confirmed scum wagons (ghug & brainbomb), it's notable that Hamilton Brian was present and yet after initially trying to start a Bunny wagon he then tried to start a worcej wagon, then voted ghug to put him into the lead ahead of Bona (6-5) when the brain wagon was ratchetting up, and then finally voted brain after he'd claimed. At no point did HB vote Bonatogether there.

Likewise ghug had also been pushing for a worcej wagon and only voted Bona when it was a straight fight between them (before leaving for brainbomb and then returning after the claim). Brainbomb also initially put Bona in the lead about an hour prior to EoD before immediately switching back to ghug, and then only rejoined Bona when ghug had overtaken him (thus putting Bona back into the lead). And Bona himself only voted ghug and not brainbomb when he turned up at the end, when bb was the stronger scum PR. And of course, when you look at yesterday Bona was one of the people who "let off" HB after his question dodging and joined the emc wagon and then also joined the attempt to start a wagon on me.

Like, sure, there's a very reasonable argument that Bona probably isn't scum because the chances of 3 mafia being up for the daykill are very small. But the VCA doesn't make Bona look town - The VCA is downright atrocious for him.

[Fluminator]

If I'm being honest, that slip mixup Hamilton did actually makes me suspect Worcej a little more. It seemed too perfect a slip and the fact the townreads from it aren't getting any pushback feels a little convenient.

[bozotheclown]

- HR had a solid behavioral case on Bona that never really got disproved so much as dismissed due to our collective unwillingness to believe that there were 3 mafia on the block day 2. HR's VCA arguments for why Bona is suspicious are still reasonable.

1) The behavioral case requires me to remain the exact same after last game, which is obviously a faulty premise regardless of my alignment.

2) If town was this competent why did we lose last game?

3) Sure, my VCA isn't great. Can't make case just on that.

4) Why the fuck would ghug push the godfather if I'm a goon? If I'm a goon why can't they just vote me for a relatively easy bus?

Your question 2 here is a poor logical argument. Besides, brainbomb helped keep ghug's wagon in play all day by voting for him 3 different times, and ghug initiated brainbomb's wagon.

As for your question 4, ghug was obviously trying to maximize scum distancing by pushing a brainbomb wagon, and that really does not depend on your alignment. However, if you are town, it seems ghug might be expected to make more of an effort to get other town to vote for you instead of concentrating on scum distancing.

[aarodactyl]

All of a sudden I'm struck with realisation that aaro and kgray are awfully reminiscent of each other in the greatest of ways.

Are you setting me up to mess up at final three? (Also I don’t think Kgrey is reading this but I don’t blame you for missing up there.)

[aarodactyl]

To be honest, Bona keeps looking scummier and scummier. I’m not convinced it’s them but they’re looking like a reasonable target at some point.

To be honest, I’m kind of curious and bozo and Donny. They’ve been making nice posts but they feel relatively absent at the same time.

[bozotheclown]

Since I promised Eden that I'd get a reads list out, here goes (in order of post count):

Ghug: He feels different to me from last game. He was PR then, so that might have something to do with it. He's not poking people as much, but still a fair amount. Town

Eden: I've never played mafia with him before, so I shall use his among us meta to draw conclusions. In AU, he is similar to Chaqa in that he talks a lot and is loud (similar to this game) and sometimes makes bold assertions that aren't totally justified and logical (also similar to this game). His dive on Bunny seems solid, but I think that it's not enough to justify a scumread on its own. I'm not sure about him, but I'd put him as slightly town.

Jamie: Feels similar to last game, but I won't make a final call until there's some more days in - him being pissed at Eden is something that I can't read very well. Also stupid rules. Not sure.

Bunny: Did math. Bad. He hasn't said a lot of value, so I lean scum on him. The disappearing at night is really weird. We'll see if he pops up tomorrow.

brain: Less abrasive. Less pokey (like ghug). Didn't do a lot d1, but he's been good this night. Probably town? This might just be that I like brain.

Durga: hasn't argued with worcej yet =D. Again, didn't do a lot d1 (except at EoD), but is doing good stuff tonight. Lean town, but less than brain.

emc: Nice vibes. I'm not sure about town vibes. Called ghug daddy for some reason. Again, this might just be cause I like him, but I'm soft townreading him.

Donny: Doesn't talk a lot, but he makes solid points. Almost certainly town.

Chaqa: More active than last game. I love his push against getting ND voted, so many town points for him.

Everyone after this should post more (except myself, I will continue to not post much)

Vecna: d1 was doodoo. n1 is doodoo. Null.

aaro: Lots of townie things.

damo: does math. null

Celaph: Same as last game. Almost certainly a nice townie

Mandatory excitement for Eden to stop scumreading me:
Woohoo! yeah! mafia!

I can't finish this atm cause I need to go watch a movie with family. Will finish when I get back.

Alright you clowns I've finished all trillion years of Das Boot and I'm back to post more reads.

HR: d1 was average. I like his EoN reads list, but then I have the choice of continuing what I'm doing now or trying to be more like last game :|. d2 is all talking about how Nk analysis sucks. Leanscum.

worcej: really tried to avoid getting voted n1. nothing interesting d2. Maybe scum?

already posted a celaph read. It's basically I think he's consciously emulating last game but he's less accurate, which lets him get less shade.

tom: obvscum. not a question

I've realized my post count is the lowest of any living player. I'm going to try to get that up.

From the first post to the second, why did your characterization of celaph change from him being town for being the same as last game to him "consciously emulating last game", which seems to imply he could be scum trying to look like town?

[bozotheclown]

To be honest, Bona keeps looking scummier and scummier. I’m not convinced it’s them but they’re looking like a reasonable target at some point.

To be honest, I’m kind of curious and bozo and Donny. They’ve been making nice posts but they feel relatively absent at the same time.

Can you be more specific about what you mean by being "relatively absent"?

[bozotheclown]

Still not sure what happened EOD1. ghug could have been shading a yolowagon on his teammate HR or ghug and Durga could have tried to repeat that madman bus y'all mentioned from a few days ago.

I'm pretty sure ghug knew I wouldn't get daykilled either way and was doing it to buddy me personally

I'm more interested in the EoD2 here though. The fact that the rest of the scum never consolidated on either Bona or Brain but instead the whole lot were all spread out despite the point you'd noted that the spare votes were always liable to slide for ghug makes me strongly suspect there were two scum wagons there.

wrong

Why did you immediately say HR's speculation that there were 2 scum wagon D2 was wrong, was there a reason you dismissed the possibility of ghug and brainbomb being scum?

[Jamiet99uk]

Unless, you are truly channeling the spirit of Flavius, who as town decided Chaqa was a woman repeatedly after corrections otherwise :v

Chaqa isn't a woman?

[Jamiet99uk]

I will make my announcement in 30 minutes.

[Jamiet99uk]

I was not roleblocked last night, or on N2 or N3.

Thank you for your attention.

[Fluminator]

If I'm being honest, that slip mixup Hamilton did actually makes me suspect Worcej a little more. It seemed too perfect a slip and the fact the townreads from it aren't getting any pushback feels a little convenient.

I retract this nm.

[Bonatogether]

I get why chaqa is deadset on this wagon but why are you?

I want competitive wagons, so I'm going to hold off on voting celaph for later.

I would start a worcej wagon because of my theory that if HB is scum (which turned out to be right), worcej is scum, but apparently some people think he townslipped. I'll try it tomorrow.

Did you read the part about worcej?
Why does that annoy you so much?
Why wait to vote for who you think is scum?
What will you try tomorrow?
I get the impression bona just wants to sheep someone and not get flak for starting a wagon.

I did, and I don't buy it. However, it appears to me that some people do, and so it will be extraordinarily difficult to start a wagon that will last for any significant length of time. I will start a worcej wagon tomorrow.