MAFIA 83: HALLOWE'EN IN THE TOYSHOP - GAME THREAD

[brainbomb]

if you take the next 5 after that and go person by person,
macca seems like they could just be trying to fulfill an elevated post count for NAI reasons. Im used to macca lurking so much they nearly fall out of their seat.

bozo had not pinged me thus far and seems to be sticking his head into garbage cans looking for scraps of tells.

spirit has been involved, and seems to be poking around and asking questions

damo is probably town for how he handled the end of day 1, and his assertions that no mafia voted for bona.

darg is town due to it being severely unlikely he wouldve bussed sweet there day 1

so that leaves the bottom: kak, rivera, RHK and vecna.

will do an analysis on rivera, and look at who shot down his wagon at EOD 1.

[dargorygel]

most of my assumptions about who the remaining scum are come from the idea that sweet was the highest volume scum poster. HB is a virtual clear, will was top poster day 1 and I dont see a new scum doing that ever, ND is hawkish and has his old school massive wall cases like he used too, and bona flipped town. So for however many scum are left the place to start looking is the bottom of the volume pool, not the top.

Do you think that the low volume would have been consciously chosen? Like, "wow, sweet is posting a lot, I'd better post less...?"

We have had a couple of people commenting on post totals, which seems unusual.

[damo666]

Good start from Vecna, moving him to TOWNlean

[brainbomb]

most of my assumptions about who the remaining scum are come from the idea that sweet was the highest volume scum poster. HB is a virtual clear, will was top poster day 1 and I dont see a new scum doing that ever, ND is hawkish and has his old school massive wall cases like he used too, and bona flipped town. So for however many scum are left the place to start looking is the bottom of the volume pool, not the top.

Do you think that the low volume would have been consciously chosen? Like, "wow, sweet is posting a lot, I'd better post less...?"

We have had a couple of people commenting on post totals, which seems unusual.

to some degree yes, I see alot of games where the scumteam consciously is acting in unison and all posting a lot. and other games where they all post very little, and others where they fan out and have 1 high, some middling, and some low. usuallly theres a low poster who is designated as the go for the long game player.

if you have too many low posters on your scumteam the town eventually prioritizes killing low posters and that roots them all out and scum gets decimated.

if scum posts too much town might find major flaws in the posts themselves and easily root out the big talker mafia members. guys like balki come to mind and HR also, who just cant shut up. Eden also, when he is scum he tends to talk more than he maybe should. ect.

[damo666]

Early morning concerns about jumping to conclusion about ghug's murder.

The result of ghug being town does NOT mean the murderer was scum.

Some are assuming scumkill, because ghug was town.

But why would scum use an ax that close to EoD… perhaps they feared losing their ax, but the most likely way that would happen was being axed themselves. Which the timing says otherwise. Other things happen at night, end of night… I think smart scum would wait until night. Nothing gained by an early un-discussed death of ghug.

So… maybe simply over-eager scum, yes. Ghug is often fear-killed, and someone might have just gotten antsy. Maybe something ghuggles uttered. I assume scum is not stupid enough to simply say, “ghug is suspecting me, I need to kill him NOW” and leave that obvious train of evidence. And ghug did not seem to say anything that provocative...?

Could be inexperienced scum…

Or the ghug-axer could be a townie, enthused by the success of the first axing, saying, “I will hit my likely scum candidate, too!”

And that axe-wielding townie hasn’t admitted it.

Who likes to be mocked, derided, criticized, maligned, and thought-less-of?

I could see myself tempted to do this… but I wouldn’t.

Whether town or independent scum, only from a read of conversations with or about ghug, I could see ND, brain, or perhaps macca pulling the trigger on the ax. (Yay mixed metaphor)

I appreciate that you think I'm capable of this, but I'm not that much of a changed woman. I'd always seek guidance, even if I try to be subtle about it.

Well, your name is listed as 'even macca.' I only listed the three names because you three had interaction with ghug that MIGHT lead to a kill.

I am not sure I even believe my own tinfoil hat here... It only concerns me that we jumped to the 'scum' conclusion without discussion.

T think a scum fearkill of ghug (voteless) the most likely. Top wagons at time were you and I don't think you'd be discussing it if it were you, Ham who had already claimed a kill, brain who has claimed non-ax and Will. It could have been Will fearing for his life and anxious to use but why would he choose ghug? I think scumkill far more likely. [Will if t was you I strongly suggest you reveal, it would quasi clear you and nobody will berate you, if it wasn't you I think it's reasonable to also say so].

From the above it is fairly obvious it wasn't me (as I have previously said). I HARDCLAIM I have never had an Axe after the reroll.

[brainbomb]

most of my assumptions about who the remaining scum are come from the idea that sweet was the highest volume scum poster. HB is a virtual clear, will was top poster day 1 and I dont see a new scum doing that ever, ND is hawkish and has his old school massive wall cases like he used too, and bona flipped town. So for however many scum are left the place to start looking is the bottom of the volume pool, not the top.

Do you think that the low volume would have been consciously chosen? Like, "wow, sweet is posting a lot, I'd better post less...?"

We have had a couple of people commenting on post totals, which seems unusual.

yes, however me doing this is quite commonplace. I always study things people dont give a shit about

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

At this point I have worcej, brainbomb, and a potential ND.

Worcej has been very vague in his reads and it seems like he hasn’t done anything to put sweet in the limelight

Brainbomb was defending sweet. Pretty big red flag

ND may have realized that he was being called scum for not tunneling on someone and then 4 pages later found a post to tunnel on.

Brainbomb is my top read and then worcej

ND is like barely a scum read, just for the off chance I’m right

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

At this point I have worcej, brainbomb, and a potential ND.

Worcej has been very vague in his reads and it seems like he hasn’t done anything to put sweet in the limelight

Brainbomb was defending sweet. Pretty big red flag

ND may have realized that he was being called scum for not tunneling on someone and then 4 pages later found a post to tunnel on.

Brainbomb is my top read and then worcej

ND is like barely a scum read, just for the off chance I’m right

Forgot Damo. I have no read on Damo, which makes me suspicious that he’s intentionally obscuring himself

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

most of my assumptions about who the remaining scum are come from the idea that sweet was the highest volume scum poster. HB is a virtual clear, will was top poster day 1 and I dont see a new scum doing that ever, ND is hawkish and has his old school massive wall cases like he used too, and bona flipped town. So for however many scum are left the place to start looking is the bottom of the volume pool, not the top.

Do you think that the low volume would have been consciously chosen? Like, "wow, sweet is posting a lot, I'd better post less...?"

We have had a couple of people commenting on post totals, which seems unusual.

yes, however me doing this is quite commonplace. I always study things people dont give a shit about

See, It’s not just me who’s crazy about posts

[brainbomb]

where theres a will
theres a way!

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

where theres a will
theres a way!

There’s always a way

[Vecna]

Good start from Vecna, moving him to TOWNlean

was it good though?

I made posts on Ham (who actually turned out to be "towncleared")
And on Rdrivera and Brain. Both points made by a bunch of people.

What about my posts actually made you change your mind?

[Vecna]

only this postcount thing done by brain is probably just to see if he gets a reaction of

He's even himself done tons of "analysis" in the past that clearly show for pretty much noone on this website that posting volume is even close to a proper metric, even when you actually use a proper sample size (which n=1 is not, its very lazy and clearly meant to just get some weak reaction or whatever).

[JustAGuyNamedWill]

Posting once more to pass brain in posts

The irony is not lost on me

[damo666]

Good start from Vecna, moving him to TOWNlean

was it good though?

I made posts on Ham (who actually turned out to be "towncleared")
And on Rdrivera and Brain. Both points made by a bunch of people.

What about my posts actually made you change your mind?

Not so much change of mind as actually having any data on which to form an opinion. Anyway your Ham post read like good analysis and read as though you hadn't realised the killclaim so very towny or extremely crafty scum. I assume the former.

[Hamilton Brian]

Real quick driveby post since I am at work and employers aren't happy with non-work sites.

I think there's a concerted effort to minimize or connect my attack on Sweet as mafia - mafia. Let's put that to rest. Yes, I bussed ND hard last game and it was a mistake. But I was in a position where I couldn't jump off or else more suspicioun on me. I am very suspicious of those folks that are running a harebrained narrative of Brian is mafia and killed his mafia partner OR someone else killed sweet and Brian killed ghug. Look at what the simplest line would be. Town (Brian) guessed correctly on Sweet (mafia). I got lucky that I trusted my gut.

Secondly, orders for the axe are carried out as soon as the GM sees them. So in the time that Jamie read my attack on sweet to when ghug died, someone else made and sent the order to jamie. What's that timeframe? Who else was posting then?

Was it mafia-concocted? We don't know. It's an easy sell but not 100%.

[Vecna]

thanks damo, thats the right answer i was looking for

[ND]

I haven't read anything since my analysis. I'll try to catch up some if I don't get night killed. Anyway, I did think about end of day some more. It's highly improbable to me that Bozo and Damo are both town. Given their actions its likely that one (if not both) are scum. Assuming the end of day vote was mafia influenced then we need to examine both damo and Bozo hard as they are the principal influencers for eod as noted in analysis.

They along with other suspicious characters like Will need to be pressured more all day if I don't make it through the night.

[bozotheclown]

Also, I will always be concerned that Vecna would have been mod-killed if he was town.

I think it more likely there was no sub and Vecna told Jamie about his Lost Weekend.

Anyway we shouldn't game the GM and this should not be a consideration.

(Sorry J)

I have no control of the situation, and I can't just ignore it. In my opinion, Vecna being mod-killed as either alignment would have been the best resolution to remove this question from the game.

[bozotheclown]

I thought about this too, but ghug hadn't posted for 6 minutes beforehand (I thought it was longer than that but oh well)

Does anyone remember if ghug is a name shower or a anonymous guest type person?

That could give HB enough time.


Also consider HB gave the order, than had to post before the second shot to remove suspicion, and the 12 minutes is just Jamie.




Maybe I'm going crazy

It is possible HB claimed the shot on sweetandcool after ordering a shot on ghug, taking the chance ghug was not around, but it does not seem very likely.
I think that would be more impressive than HB shooting sweetandcool himself as mafia.

Why?

It would mean he correctly determined ghug shot sweetandcool and risked ghug claiming it before the shot on ghug was processed. I read ghug's message as him being correct about suspecting sweetandcool, not as claiming the shot.