M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[brainbomb]

Vecna (4) aarodactyl Ezio Jamiet99uk Hamilton Brian
ghug (3) worcej* Chaqa sweetandcool
Chaqa (3) damo666 ghug brainbomb

leaving our fate to rdrivera, demonRHK, kak, and vecna

will be curious if we get some subs or modkills here also

[Chaqa]

@worc I think I figured out the answer to the question we had in pre-game.

Which one lol?

THE question

[Kakarroto]

I skimmed through all the chat I missed and my conclusion is that chaqa is very dumb or scum. I don’t have the time or energy to explain that further. But I implore everyone to vote chaqa if they think he’s good at mafia.

If we don’t vote him out, I’ll assume you’re all agreeing that chaqa doesn’t know what he’s doing.

Apologies if that’s too harsh. I can lighten my tone if it’s getting to be too much for an online forum game.

given that he's finally learned how to correctly 50/50, I'm not inclined to vote Chaqa today

[Chaqa]

These wagons are all trash tho

Voting Vecna the first time he's played in decades is cruel.

[Chaqa]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

[brainbomb]

These wagons are all trash tho

Voting Vecna the first time he's played in decades is cruel.

I mean this in a very nice way. but I dont play mafia based on gamblers fallacy or undue favoritism. when someone posts 9 posts a game they probably should die.

[brainbomb]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

you're actually willing to entertain this case when everyone else thinks its just meta and is totally preposterous?

[Kakarroto]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

can we now get the reason, WHY 'we' shouldn't have done that? Or would that influence mafia too strongly?

[worcej]

These wagons are all trash tho

Voting Vecna the first time he's played in decades is cruel.

I also think the reasoning is shit based too

[Jamiet99uk]

These wagons are all trash tho

Voting Vecna the first time he's played in decades is cruel.

He is not playing.

He has not posted in 22 hours.

[brainbomb]

like just from a very weirdo mindset, if I were to now join you on vecna, id actually be making him a 500% chance greater of dying. So I cant tell what your goal is here.

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

Did you notice that Brainbomb had moved off Hamilton, onto you, by the time you cast this vote?

[aarodactyl]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

you're actually willing to entertain this case when everyone else thinks its just meta and is totally preposterous?

I trust it too. I just think backing it up with evidence isn’t helpful. It seems like to me, you had a hunch and then backed it up with evidence. Unfortunately in situations like these, the evidence is incredibly influenced by selection bias.

So what I’m saying is that I trust your hunch but not the evidence. So while I think you’re likely town and have some trust in your hunch, I’m not convinced that I should change my vote.

Also I’m sure that feels very frustrating based on how sure you seem. I’m just trying to give you insight into my pov.

[brainbomb]

like just from a very weirdo mindset, if I were to now join you on vecna, id actually be making him a 500% chance greater of dying. So I cant tell what your goal is here.

sorry, join chaqa on hamilton. not vecna. by voting hamilton I would be improving vecna odds of death based on wagonomics

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

you're actually willing to entertain this case when everyone else thinks its just meta and is totally preposterous?

I think your Hamilton case is good work. There's possibly something in it. But you don't need to be this melodramatic all the time.

[Kakarroto]

Aaro is right, let me explain

Chance of being drawn with Mafia1 = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia2 = (1-1/11)*(1/10) = 1/11

Chance of being drawn with Mafia3 = (1-2/11)*(1/9) = 1/11

So if you are town the chance your partner is mafia is 3/11.

So as a townie your partner is more likely to be scum than somebody chosen at random (3/13).
[...]

so ... why is green, blue and red the same 1/11 when they have all different values? Shouldn't the chance decrease because there aren't as many slots after the mafia before were drawn? And if you just want to say all three have equal chance to be drawn, why put that math out there?

So what are the chances then that town is your partner?

1/13 for the first? (1-1/13)*(1/12) = 1/13 (0.0769230769230769)
second (1-2/12)*(1/11) = 0.0757575757575 ~1/13
third (1-3/11)*(1/10) = 0.07272727272 ~1/14
fourth (1-4/11)*(1/9) = 0.070707070707 ~1/14
sixth (1-5/11)*(1/8) = 0.0681818181818182 ~1/15
seventh (1-6/11)*(1/7) = 0.064935064935065 ~1/15
eight (1-7/11)*(1/6) = 0.0606060606060606 ~1/16
ninth (1-8/11)*(1/5) = 0.054545454545454545 ~1/18
tenth (1-9/11)*(1/4) = 0.045454545454545455 = 1/22
eleventh (1-10/11)*(1/3) = 0.0303030303030303 = 1/33

0.0769230769230769
0.075757575757575
0.0727272727727272
0.0707070707070707
0.0681818181818182
0.064935064935065
0.0606060606060606
0.0545454545454545
0.0454545454545455
0.0303030303030303
__________________
0.6201409701409801 ~ 7/11 (0.6363636363636363)

hmm, something doesn't make sense with that ... it's close, sure, but 7/11 + 3/11 is only about 10/11 ... where is the missing 1/11?

and why does the number vary for town whereas for mafia it stays the same percentage?

why does damo and aaro come to around the same number which isn't 100% exactly correct? Did they come up with that number in the mafchat? Did I do a big oopsie somewhere at my calculations? Can the system for mafia not be made for town? Or is the whole thing just a big strange red herring and 3/7 and 4/7 are just correct?

There are 11 town so the chance of being brawn with Mafia 1 is 1 in 11 or 1/11.

To be drawn with Mafia 2 you can't have been drawn with Mafia 1 (1-1/11 = 10/11) multiplied by the 1 in 10 chance of getting drawn (there are only 10 town left as 1 has been paired with Maia1). 10/11 * 1/10 = 1/11.

Applying similar logic to Mafia 3 (not having been drawn with 1 or 2) times the 1 in 9 that are left you get 1/11.

Add the three to get 3/11.

I used to work in a similar job to aaro hence the same conclusion. Nothing mysterious. I did not speak in scumchat, he may have. He may or may not be my dance partner.

Ok, I used the same logic and math (applying different values since town could be much more) for the town percentages as you did for the maf percentages, but I fail to come to 100% chance afterwards.

Now, did I apply wrong values for town, do we need a different formular to get the town percentage? As far as I know it NEEDS to be 100% if maf and town chance are added, right? So why does it not sum to 100%? Where is the error/mistake?

[aarodactyl]

oh god are we gonna now spend 6 hours talking about how we shouldnt have claimed?

I think people that pushed claiming likely contain at least one scum.

can we now get the reason, WHY 'we' shouldn't have done that? Or would that influence mafia too strongly?

Why we shouldn’t have claimed? I posted an explanation in my channel to the gos thread and I’m happy to link it to you once the game is over. There are currently some unclaimed pairs so it’s not impossible that the mechanism will still exist. Definitely unlikely though.

[brainbomb]

I'm quite keen to put my trust in this Brain/Brian thing, actually.

##Vote Hamilton

you're actually willing to entertain this case when everyone else thinks its just meta and is totally preposterous?

I trust it too. I just think backing it up with evidence isn’t helpful. It seems like to me, you had a hunch and then backed it up with evidence. Unfortunately in situations like these, the evidence is incredibly influenced by selection bias.

So what I’m saying is that I trust your hunch but not the evidence. So while I think you’re likely town and have some trust in your hunch, I’m not convinced that I should change my vote.

Also I’m sure that feels very frustrating based on how sure you seem. I’m just trying to give you insight into my pov.

Im not a fan of this reply because Im putting in far more effort than you, and youre acting like im doing something you arent. Which tells me you just openly do not care to hunt at all.

[Kakarroto]

I think we should all agree that the math doesn’t matter at this point. I’m sure that I’m doing it correctly. I honestly didn’t read damos explanation of it so idk if his math is legit or not.

All that said, I like math a lot and I’m happy to walk to kak or anyone else through it after the game is over. But let’s please stop the math wall posts. I know I started it but I naively thought that I’d explain it once and we’d be done.

If you are so smart, do it NOW and show me how town and maf percentages come together. What's so hard to do that?

[aarodactyl]

##vote kak

I still think vecna is scum but kak’s commitment to reviving that math discussion feels scummy. Like I said before, let’s just discuss after the game if you’re genuinely curious about the math.