M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[aarodactyl]

Why do you think that, though? It was very clear yesterday that neither myself nor Balki would be daykilled, and made even more clear during the night that that wouldn't take place until at least the day before KILO should we both still be alive. Why do you think the scum would keep alive people who won't be daykilled and instead kill someone who might be?

I don’t think you’re wrong but I still wouldn’t have done it as scum. Even if you’re fairly safe, I think there are people I have as stronger town clears.

Why did you express surprise that it "worked" when Balki flipped?

I didn’t think they’d pull a NK

[Bonatogether]

I don’t think you’re wrong but I still wouldn’t have done it as scum. Even if you’re fairly safe, I think there are people I have as stronger town clears.

Why did you express surprise that it "worked" when Balki flipped?

I didn’t think they’d pull a NK

?????????????

[ghug]

I don’t think you’re wrong but I still wouldn’t have done it as scum. Even if you’re fairly safe, I think there are people I have as stronger town clears.

Why did you express surprise that it "worked" when Balki flipped?

I didn’t think they’d pull a NK

Did you know that he was trying to?

[celaph]

@ghug you asked me why I thought Balki was a bad kill. The reason is that town was going to have to resolve that eventually by killing either him or HR. And until then, we wouldn’t fully trust either of them.

There's a fairly obvious flaw in this logic in that the scum patently knew we were both town and therefore that one of us would retract in that scenario... Which meant that that would only work if they thought they could get us miskilled after the retraction. Which is a pretty doubtful strategy given I'd townread Balki and indeed he had townread me.

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

[ghug]

@ghug you asked me why I thought Balki was a bad kill. The reason is that town was going to have to resolve that eventually by killing either him or HR. And until then, we wouldn’t fully trust either of them.

There's a fairly obvious flaw in this logic in that the scum patently knew we were both town and therefore that one of us would retract in that scenario... Which meant that that would only work if they thought they could get us miskilled after the retraction. Which is a pretty doubtful strategy given I'd townread Balki and indeed he had townread me.

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

I was the only one in the whole game who wasn't strongly townreading him, so confbias seems like a stretch.

There's more to it than expressing surprise. I had the sense from the start that Balki was trying to draw the nightkill off of HR, and that other players (Flum, Tom, HR himself) had drawn the same conclusion. Flum being surprised that it worked is a logical progression. Aaro was a vocal believer of Balki's claim even after it was retracted, and then expressed surprise that it "worked" (in a very awkward post to boot) despite having shown no sign that he thought it was a ploy to draw a nightkill previously.

Your reaction is also iffy, but it was less awkward and I townread you for other reasons.

[Fluminator]

I feel like it's best we daykill Bona today, and then get paranoid about deep threats after that. We basically have to kill him before lylo anyway, and if we do it now we'll have a lot of townies still alive to reanalyze in the night.

Maybe I'm just being lazy at this point.

On assumption that I'm town, who's the deep threat?

I townread everyone else (even Aaro still) so it would be hard to know. I'd probably look through aaro, bozo, and maybe celaph more closely to start.

I'm sorry if it's frustrating it seems I'm being lazy in voting you, but you're the only person left alive who I didn't townread, and this was before we even accounted for the EOD5 Damo daykill wagon. You have to be killed before lylo even if you are town, and it's better we do it now when there's more town alive to analyze if we find out we're wrong. I'll do deep dives in all remaining players before the night is over if I'm wrong. (this is assuming you die lol)

You played a great game either way.

[bozotheclown]

Yep. Another mistake from typing on my phone late at night with dyslexia. Also the frustration here is mostly at Ghug to be honest but it’s really frustrating to come back to a lot of cherry-picking through my posts, especially early game when I was having trouble keeping track of what was going on.

How am I cherry-picking?

The cherry-picking was a reference to bozo. I made a comment a few days ago about how it seems like confirmation bias. I don’t really want to fight about whether it’s valuable or not considering it’s not 1am anymore

That may be one way to characterize what I was doing, but obviously I am only asking about thing I find suspicious out of many posts.

What bias do you think I am confirming?

[celaph]

My conclusion about D3 is that aarodactyl had a good understanding of the setup and for the most part said the right things about how town should be proceeding, which is not necessarily alignment indicative.

I agree with this to be honest. I was confused that I got townread for it so much

Perhaps I over town read you for it, but at least to me you felt really genuine that day. As scum you would have known that of the 5 remaining members, at least 2 were caught, Yoyo was probably going to get killed for being inactive, damo wasn't catching many town reads outside HR, and you didn't look great after D2. And yet it felt like you were excited. Unless you're the type of play to love the prospect of 1v11s, that strikes me as a townie response.

Also, maybe I overestimate how much coaching newbies usually get, but it felt like you didn't have someone to help you along nor a QT chat that you were picking up info from. In hindsight maybe this was just Yoyo being a bad communicator though.

[celaph]

There's a fairly obvious flaw in this logic in that the scum patently knew we were both town and therefore that one of us would retract in that scenario... Which meant that that would only work if they thought they could get us miskilled after the retraction. Which is a pretty doubtful strategy given I'd townread Balki and indeed he had townread me.

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

I was the only one in the whole game who wasn't strongly townreading him, so confbias seems like a stretch.

There's more to it than expressing surprise. I had the sense from the start that Balki was trying to draw the nightkill off of HR, and that other players (Flum, Tom, HR himself) had drawn the same conclusion. Flum being surprised that it worked is a logical progression. Aaro was a vocal believer of Balki's claim even after it was retracted, and then expressed surprise that it "worked" (in a very awkward post to boot) despite having shown no sign that he thought it was a ploy to draw a nightkill previously.

Your reaction is also iffy, but it was less awkward and I townread you for other reasons.

Thanks for the explanation.

[ghug]

I feel like it's best we daykill Bona today, and then get paranoid about deep threats after that. We basically have to kill him before lylo anyway, and if we do it now we'll have a lot of townies still alive to reanalyze in the night.

Maybe I'm just being lazy at this point.

On assumption that I'm town, who's the deep threat?

I townread everyone else (even Aaro still) so it would be hard to know. I'd probably look through aaro, bozo, and maybe celaph more closely to start.

I'm sorry if it's frustrating it seems I'm being lazy in voting you, but you're the only person left alive who I didn't townread, and this was before we even accounted for the EOD5 Damo daykill wagon. You have to be killed before lylo even if you are town, and it's better we do it now when there's more town alive to analyze if we find out we're wrong. I'll do deep dives in all remaining players before the night is over if I'm wrong. (this is assuming you die lol)

You played a great game either way.

Flum, the last time I flagged a start of day reaction as scummy, it was Jamie. You should join me on aaro.

[aarodactyl]

Why did you express surprise that it "worked" when Balki flipped?

I didn’t think they’d pull a NK

Did you know that he was trying to?

In retrospect, that was pretty clear. However, before the flip, I still thought there was a reasonable chance they were scum doing a Hail Mary.

[aarodactyl]

Why did you express surprise that it "worked" when Balki flipped?

I didn’t think they’d pull a NK

?????????????

I responded to Ghug but there were enough question marks I figured I’d respond to this too.

I had no idea what Balki was before the flip. To be honest, I was split between scum and priest. The fact it was a VT that pulled a NK was pretty surprising

[aarodactyl]

There's a fairly obvious flaw in this logic in that the scum patently knew we were both town and therefore that one of us would retract in that scenario... Which meant that that would only work if they thought they could get us miskilled after the retraction. Which is a pretty doubtful strategy given I'd townread Balki and indeed he had townread me.

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

I was the only one in the whole game who wasn't strongly townreading him, so confbias seems like a stretch.

There's more to it than expressing surprise. I had the sense from the start that Balki was trying to draw the nightkill off of HR, and that other players (Flum, Tom, HR himself) had drawn the same conclusion. Flum being surprised that it worked is a logical progression. Aaro was a vocal believer of Balki's claim even after it was retracted, and then expressed surprise that it "worked" (in a very awkward post to boot) despite having shown no sign that he thought it was a ploy to draw a nightkill previously.

Your reaction is also iffy, but it was less awkward and I townread you for other reasons.

I don’t think it was retracted. The post just said they were retracting their vote for HR because they thought they were VT. They never said they weren’t priest

[aarodactyl]

How am I cherry-picking?

The cherry-picking was a reference to bozo. I made a comment a few days ago about how it seems like confirmation bias. I don’t really want to fight about whether it’s valuable or not considering it’s not 1am anymore

That may be one way to characterize what I was doing, but obviously I am only asking about thing I find suspicious out of many posts.

What bias do you think I am confirming?

Ghug was talking about how I was scum. Just that as a baseline is some bias. Also I’ve expressed several times this game that deep rereads on players doesn’t seem that helpful because if you’re looking for scum, there’s a chance you could see signals for that that are just noise. Especially considering the volume of the game.

[Bonatogether]

I townread everyone else (even Aaro still) so it would be hard to know. I'd probably look through aaro, bozo, and maybe celaph more closely to start.

I'm sorry if it's frustrating it seems I'm being lazy in voting you, but you're the only person left alive who I didn't townread, and this was before we even accounted for the EOD5 Damo daykill wagon. You have to be killed before lylo even if you are town, and it's better we do it now when there's more town alive to analyze if we find out we're wrong. I'll do deep dives in all remaining players before the night is over if I'm wrong. (this is assuming you die lol)

You played a great game either way.

If yall are voting me here you better start poking kgray, celaph, and ghug a lot more. I'm not sure about aaro, but I like bozo.

I get your vote, but that doesn't mean I like it.

Ty :)

##vote

[aarodactyl]

On assumption that I'm town, who's the deep threat?

I townread everyone else (even Aaro still) so it would be hard to know. I'd probably look through aaro, bozo, and maybe celaph more closely to start.

I'm sorry if it's frustrating it seems I'm being lazy in voting you, but you're the only person left alive who I didn't townread, and this was before we even accounted for the EOD5 Damo daykill wagon. You have to be killed before lylo even if you are town, and it's better we do it now when there's more town alive to analyze if we find out we're wrong. I'll do deep dives in all remaining players before the night is over if I'm wrong. (this is assuming you die lol)

You played a great game either way.

Flum, the last time I flagged a start of day reaction as scummy, it was Jamie. You should join me on aaro.

Ah yes. Correlation = causation. You can go between maniac and damo on my math ranking.

All snark aside, being right about a read in the past doesn’t mean much.

[ghug]

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

I was the only one in the whole game who wasn't strongly townreading him, so confbias seems like a stretch.

There's more to it than expressing surprise. I had the sense from the start that Balki was trying to draw the nightkill off of HR, and that other players (Flum, Tom, HR himself) had drawn the same conclusion. Flum being surprised that it worked is a logical progression. Aaro was a vocal believer of Balki's claim even after it was retracted, and then expressed surprise that it "worked" (in a very awkward post to boot) despite having shown no sign that he thought it was a ploy to draw a nightkill previously.

Your reaction is also iffy, but it was less awkward and I townread you for other reasons.

I don’t think it was retracted. The post just said they were retracting their vote for HR because they thought they were VT. They never said they weren’t priest

I still find it hard to understand how anyone could have read it this way, but you and kgray can't both be scum, so I guess I believe you.

I think my chief issue with your reaction, beyond the tone reading as forced and awkward, is that you were surprised that Balki's ploy (which you weren't aware of before the flip) worked, not that he'd flipped VT (which you hadn't considered as a possibility, and thus should have been surprised by).

Also you were fooled by Balki's claim, which we can surmise is true of the final scum, so you've got that working against you.

[aarodactyl]

I was the only one in the whole game who wasn't strongly townreading him, so confbias seems like a stretch.

There's more to it than expressing surprise. I had the sense from the start that Balki was trying to draw the nightkill off of HR, and that other players (Flum, Tom, HR himself) had drawn the same conclusion. Flum being surprised that it worked is a logical progression. Aaro was a vocal believer of Balki's claim even after it was retracted, and then expressed surprise that it "worked" (in a very awkward post to boot) despite having shown no sign that he thought it was a ploy to draw a nightkill previously.

Your reaction is also iffy, but it was less awkward and I townread you for other reasons.

I don’t think it was retracted. The post just said they were retracting their vote for HR because they thought they were VT. They never said they weren’t priest

I still find it hard to understand how anyone could have read it this way, but you and kgray can't both be scum, so I guess I believe you.

I think my chief issue with your reaction, beyond the tone reading as forced and awkward, is that you were surprised that Balki's ploy (which you weren't aware of before the flip) worked, not that he'd flipped VT (which you hadn't considered as a possibility, and thus should have been surprised by).

Also you were fooled by Balki's claim, which we can surmise is true of the final scum, so you've got that working against you.

I knew it was an option they were VT and that it was a ploy to protect HR. However, I thought it was unlikely. The fact they were VT and the ploy are equivalent to me so I think dissecting my reaction doesn’t make sense.

It’s a fair point that I’d have it in common with the last scum. But also if i was scum, would I have made my surprise so obvious?

[ghug]

I townread everyone else (even Aaro still) so it would be hard to know. I'd probably look through aaro, bozo, and maybe celaph more closely to start.

I'm sorry if it's frustrating it seems I'm being lazy in voting you, but you're the only person left alive who I didn't townread, and this was before we even accounted for the EOD5 Damo daykill wagon. You have to be killed before lylo even if you are town, and it's better we do it now when there's more town alive to analyze if we find out we're wrong. I'll do deep dives in all remaining players before the night is over if I'm wrong. (this is assuming you die lol)

You played a great game either way.

Flum, the last time I flagged a start of day reaction as scummy, it was Jamie. You should join me on aaro.

Ah yes. Correlation = causation. You can go between maniac and damo on my math ranking.

All snark aside, being right about a read in the past doesn’t mean much.

1. I'm not conflating correlation and causation. I'm noting that I've demonstrated an ability to read people based on these posts in the past. The misguided attempt to besmirch my mathematicity is good evidence that you're related to Bunny.
2. I never said I thought this was a good argument. I just thought that Flum might think it was.

[Hellenic Riot]

@ghug you asked me why I thought Balki was a bad kill. The reason is that town was going to have to resolve that eventually by killing either him or HR. And until then, we wouldn’t fully trust either of them.

There's a fairly obvious flaw in this logic in that the scum patently knew we were both town and therefore that one of us would retract in that scenario... Which meant that that would only work if they thought they could get us miskilled after the retraction. Which is a pretty doubtful strategy given I'd townread Balki and indeed he had townread me.

I think it's not inconceivable that one could get a miskill on you or Balki. Kgray and myself where giving you a hard time for your reads while Balki hasn't looked great most of the game.

I think it's also a little weird that aaro is the only one getting scum read for this. Both flum and myself also expressed surprise earlier. Using this to justify an aaro scum game strikes me as more conf bias than a stand alone argument.

Who said I was scumreading him for it?

I concede that in the scenario where Balki was the priest then perhaps I may have been daykillable, but I'd still like to know just who he expected to die instead (apparently nobody)