WebMafia Olympics - Game #3 - Raygun's Revenge [GAME THREAD]

[Kakarroto]

also, why is it important to get the one with the bullet today?

if there is a shotless mafia there, and have 3 town, so 3-1, we have 3!!! chances to vote out the last mafia. 3-1 and 2-1 due to majority, and if we get it wrong both time and it gets to 1-1, the surviving town HAS to be on his toes and be ready to instantly vote for the other survivor - if faster, we still win there.

Now, it could be that we don't vote out the mafia with the bullet, and we have no idea if we did or not. But if we get mafia today, we will have the day of 3-1. If it's 2-1, both town need to be faster than mafia and vote the mafia, if he has still the shot. So keep that in mind, but lets cross that bridge if we get there.

[Kakarroto]

How has Rdr not been online since Saturday according to his profile

how did you see this? When I checked just after the shot, there was a - next to "Last active:" for all of you four.

Jamie changed it after I pointed it out so it now shows again.

ok, so two scenarios that pop into my mind:
a) Flum is 300 IQ mafia and forged this post before the shot and it was all planned from the beginning
b) RD changed it before the shot but after Flum looked and is the actual shooter

... and of course there is a third scenario possible:
c) Kak is just stupid and looks at the wrong place on the profile

so @Flum how did you see this?

[Kakarroto]

Wait a moment we still have a MK. Didn't someone say we didn't have one? And if we manage to take a shot away then we are doing great.

Yeah no way Mafia holsters here.

And no kill sucks, way better to just try to hit Mafia.

##VOTE ghug

it's more complicated right now for "we still have a mk". There is a way we lose with a misvote if mafia shoots correctly

the longer mafia waits, the more dangerous those shots get. Think of it not as in numbers, but in percentages. A shot on D1 removes 1/7th of town. A shot when we are 4-2 removes 1/4th of town. A shot when it's 2-1 removes 1/2th of town. It's friggen scary.

We have to make them use the shots now. It would've been much better yesterday, but yeah ...

Long discussion points from Kak about what Mafia's strategy should be....

This is an edge case, but is there a chance Kak is scum trying to signal a strategy to their partner...?

If I was mafia, my partner didn't listen and I would be furious at them right now

[Kakarroto]

I'm 50/50 on Kak and Jamie (maybe 45/55), but I think it's highly likely that one of them shot Bunny and is partnered with rd, so if we kill Rd now, we should be able to kill both of them.

I'm pretty sure Flum is town because he figured out that it was better for mafia to shoot and then took the pro-town action.

ghug's assessment about jamie and me here makes me remember the game where I subbed in for donny. Where we ended up in the final three and he believed me because I didn't endhammer a sure maf win.

I get the faint feeling this might be maf-ghug happy for a chance to reverse this favour from that time

I do tend to the feeling, that we might need to have a showdown between Flum and RD today, with Flum's message about RD's online status. To find out if Flum said the truth and RD changed it or if it was all just a ruse.

How likely is it that Flum says that online thing about his maf-partner?

[Kakarroto]

but what my original thought was, is, that since ghug was town that game, and this reflects the same mind status of the time, ghug has better chances of being town here.

[Kakarroto]

I feel like one of the people who pushed a sudden speedhammer on Sweet was probably scum, playing the long game and hoping to gain a modicum of cred for "preventing a shot", despite also forcing through a miskill on a townie.

It wasn't Bunny.

Kak required a lot of pressure to join in.

Is it Ghug?

Is it Flum?

anyway, back to the original task, I was looking for signs in which camp jamie fell, the "endvote to prevent shot"-fans or the "late shot"-enjoyers ... and he seems to be pretty down in the former.

I think RD came around to it too, but only later?

[Kakarroto]

I feel like one of the people who pushed a sudden speedhammer on Sweet was probably scum, playing the long game and hoping to gain a modicum of cred for "preventing a shot", despite also forcing through a miskill on a townie.

It wasn't Bunny.

Kak required a lot of pressure to join in.

Is it Ghug?

Is it Flum?

Why wouldn't we have just shot and then pushed for the miskill anyway, though?

What do you think of Kak's progression from unwilling to hammer and not interested in voting sweet to hammering him?

I don't know. Maybe there was a worry that firing a shot would make town stop and re-evaluate, instead of just throwing another townie into the pit of misery without letting them defend themselves? Sweet tried to speak up for himself but you just bludgeoned him over the head regardless.

I find Kak's progression during all of that little period of time *weird*. However, you and Bunny were both yelling at him repeatedly to endvote. There was a lot of cajoling taking place.

But then again, maybe his seeming reluctance was theatre? Maybe it's Kak and Rdr. Maybe its that simple.

I. Don't. Know.

ok, I'm second guessing myself on my town read of jamie again. I said that I liked how he pointed out and explained how the hammering progressed and came to a pretty accurate conclusion of me. But he not mentioning Flum here, but ghug and bunny, might be a sign that jamie and flum are partnered?

uuhh ... but it could also just be jamie having a bigger imprint of bunny.

Well, it doesn't change that Flum would be mafia in that case, so I should just stay the course

[Kakarroto]

Rdr has been absent for a long time.

jamie reinforcing out the (correct) flum statement ...

nah, stop it, this is NAI.

also, checking the timeline, Flum said it on page 36, and jamie was on page 42 on his reread (replying to ghug before he made the statement)

so I guess just coincidence?

[Kakarroto]

Rdr has been absent for a long time.

Didn't expect people would be stupid enough to hammer the day again. But I underestimated this capacity.

it DID bring back RD though, so jamie has magic powers

[Kakarroto]

At this point I will assume Kak is town. If he isn't we already lost so it's a safe assumption.
So it's two from Jamiet-Ghug- Flum. Would both scum Ghug and Flum push the endvote on Sweet? Flum progression from scum team being me and Fhug to hammering Sweet with Ghug look so opportunistic that I feel he thought he could win the game with that miskill.

On the other side Ghug move to vote me is exactly what I think scum would do today.

Maybe it's just them both.

The game is still going, so do you think I failed?

hmm ... this looks weird, and not in a good way. Was this maf-flum asking maf-RD if he thinks he did a mistake by sticking out and endvoting? Maybe maf-RD wanted maf-Flum to shoot and not endvote so early? Hmm.

[Kakarroto]

I mean, either you shot him or it's Jamie and Rd. Either way, I think they were trying to lock him in on being wrong on me, and maybe frame you because you were agitated and ostensibly the only one online.

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

If Flum were mafia, he would have shot yesterday once he realized that shooting yesterday lost us a miskill, and the game would be over now. This is the same reason I was townreading Bunny all day yesterday, as I believed that he understood the same.

My voting pool is the people who didn't realize this, since mafia didn't shoot yesterday.

consider this: maf-flum seeing what you are doing, seeing you targeting a towny, thinking "ah, I could use the cred of doing something towny" and joins you.

As you know, mafia not always does the supposed perfect mech thing. Look at me not endvoting in that game in the final three for example (still sorry about that ). Maf-flum could've just disregarded to shoot there if there's still a misvote coming. And getting town cred out of it.

[Kakarroto]

Anyway, I'll be having a break here, let you all come here and look at the situation and give your thoughts.

I've been on here yesterday too long, and I didn't feel good, but I'll be back later, most likely when more people are around. bye until then o/

[rdrivera2005]

How has Rdr not been online since Saturday according to his profile

how did you see this? When I checked just after the shot, there was a - next to "Last active:" for all of you four.

Jamie changed it after I pointed it out so it now shows again.

ok, so two scenarios that pop into my mind:
a) Flum is 300 IQ mafia and forged this post before the shot and it was all planned from the beginning
b) RD changed it before the shot but after Flum looked and is the actual shooter

... and of course there is a third scenario possible:
c) Kak is just stupid and looks at the wrong place on the profile

so @Flum how did you see this?

I don't even know where you change this, lol. And sometimes I read the game on the bot, so this is pointless.

[rdrivera2005]

you think maf-flum could not fake it?

If Flum were mafia, he would have shot yesterday once he realized that shooting yesterday lost us a miskill, and the game would be over now. This is the same reason I was townreading Bunny all day yesterday, as I believed that he understood the same.

My voting pool is the people who didn't realize this, since mafia didn't shoot yesterday.

consider this: maf-flum seeing what you are doing, seeing you targeting a towny, thinking "ah, I could use the cred of doing something towny" and joins you.

As you know, mafia not always does the supposed perfect mech thing. Look at me not endvoting in that game in the final three for example (still sorry about that ). Maf-flum could've just disregarded to shoot there if there's still a misvote coming. And getting town cred out of it.

One thing you can be sure. I am pretty good with mechs, specially as Mafia. If I was Mafia this game I would have used my shot as soon as people started to talk about hammers. I know I will have long periods away from the game (last weekend was my daughter birthday, I have family in town and my mother in law is in the hospital).

I should probably asked for a sub, but I thought I can handle it, but it's a topic for after game.

[Jamiet99uk]

My current "what happened?" guess is that Ghug was not the shooter; but he hoped his stalling of his hammer vote on Sweet, at a time when it was probable that Worcej wasn't online, would buy his team-mate time to see what was happening and fire a shot.

That didn't happen, and Ghug's team-mate fired *after* the deadline, but Ghug was fully committed by then, hence his Big Balls attitude today.

I'm happy with my vote.

[Jamiet99uk]

If I am right, flipping Ghug is very good for town because it's likely that if Ghug is scum, he is the scum that is armed and dangerous.

[Fluminator]

I will be around to catch up soon. I've only quickly skimmed. Taking one night off is not lurking Kak.

[Jamiet99uk]

I will be around to catch up soon. I've only quickly skimmed. Taking one night off is not lurking Kak.

Only worcej, rdrivera, TheMadMonarch, JustAnImpostorNamedWill, Heartthrob and dargorygel have posted less than you, you lurking lurker, you.

[ghug]

I've come to the conclusion that it doesn't matter what the real best strategy is, so we shouldn't focus on that, we can leave that for after the game. And honestly I want to spare me the pain, as I've already thought a lot of it and couldn't really see the point. And we have limited time and brainpower for solving, so just after game.

What matters though is what people thought at the time (or at least said they think). That I can fully agree with and that can be helpful to solve the game.

Ghug and Flum are on the "end to gain a misvote" train, as was Bunny.

Kak was on the "mafia needs to save shots for lategame or when just about to being voted out" train.

I think RD was more like on the "save shots" I think? And Jamie was ... hm, I'm unsure what both thought, so better check that. But that has time for later.


Now, I want you to go back mentally to just after the hammer. Kak saw bunny hammer, had his thought of line, waited in the thread, refreshing, looking when worcej came online, not seeing anyone else than occasionally bunny online, or MM popping on (or someone not in this game anymore). Rereading and trying to find a connection. Then worcej finally responded on discord about some GM questions (basically my fear there was that the day didn't end if maf-sweet shot one on his wagon, and I had some questions in case of the no-kill, if mafia could squeeze a shot in while it was hammered - stuff that doesn't really matter now), was just shy of 2pm my time. I think he's pacific, or one timezone to the east, so ghug was probably in the late stage of sleep or maybe woke up too, Flum should've been away I think and RD was on the late morning and probably at work, while Jamie also was at work but just past noon.

Worcej takes a bit, then adjucates the day. Kak is very agitated by the flip with no shot and enters panic mode, nearly loses his correct townread of bunny. After a bit of talking, Bunny is shot about .... half an hour or so? Kak is very surprised, but calms down thinking the late shot-thread has been luckily avoided, even if it had cost us a towny.

Feel free to read it back, but that's how I experienced it. I truly feel it was a huge mistake for mafia to take this shot. If I was mafia, I would've never (ok, never say never - but the probability is so disappearing small) taken that shot if I was mafia there. So, if you think I'm mafia, I still have the bullet. If you are convinced of it you should just vote me. I'm not, but if I haven't convinced you of that right now, I've done a not so good job. But that also means it removes my potential status as the shooter, which decreases my mathematical chance of being mafia.

Why am I talking about this? Because I think the best way is to vote out the mafia who didn't shoot. I'm currently torn between my emotional/gut read (jamie and RD feeling town there) and my logical/brain read (ghug is acting consistently for example). And both clash, but have some overlap. I still could be wrong.

But I had a thought about possible maf-teams and look at today's voting situation, and those were my thoughts:

possible maf-teams:
ghug-flum
ghug-jamie
ghug-RD

flum-jamie
flum-RD

jamie-RD

RD (2) Kakarroto ghug
ghug (2) Jamie RD
not voted: Fluminator

if ghug-RD maf team, both are bussing each other.

if flum-jamie team, doesn't matter both votes are bad

if ghug-flum team, flum might try to save or bus ghug for cred -> has flum the bullet in that case?

if ghug-jamie team, jamie is bussing ghug -> has jamie the bullet in that case?

if flum-RD team, flum might try to save or bus RD for cred -> has flum the bullet in that case?

if jamie-RD team, both are trying to get ghug voted out -> best to stay and hope flum follows

=> only one situation is benefitial for town
=> [random chance] change to either vote flum (3 chances, 2 of which flum has most likely the last bullet), or jamie (2 chances, 1 in which he has the bullet)

=> if I remove jamie as the most unlikely mafia imo, there are 2 chances flum is mafia with the bullet, and 1 where both mafia bus each other

Hmmmm ....

====================

so I went to bed with this thoughts, and woke up realizing that Flum didn't post much today and kinda went to the background. He didn't post after I went to bed too, so I think he has a great chance of being mafia here with this behaviour, trying to find the correct approach to not attract attention, biding time, making sure he survives whatever the cost.

This also tells me that it is likely, that one of RD and ghug is his partner, and he just doesn't want to commit early. He still probes if it's possible to get a misvote of another towny, and lock it in at a later stage, but still ready to bus if it's necessary to safe his own skin.

All that and the increased chance that Flum has the last bullet if he is mafia is pointin towards Flum being the correct vote here if town wants to win. So retreated engagement, the current situation, also if you look at it, nobody is really blaming him for the misvote of sweet; he was second to vote and endvote, so he has the easy opt out of "I was just following orders". But this is also a good spot for mafia to join any wagon to misvote townies. He has neither the consequences for choosing the target, and not the consequences for ending the day; but technically, if he endvoted someone else, say RD, the mood could've easily shifted and we would've voted RD out.

Hm, does that make the team RD-Flum the most likey? Maybe. Am I totally sure about this a la sweet style? No, I could easily be wrong. But this theory explains Flums behaviour holding back, even when he was always there, at least for a bit, to give his thoughts. This silence now from him is letting my hair stand up.

Yeah, I think we need to vote Flum or we will lose

##vote Fluminator

It seems like your argument is basically that if you list all the teams out with the knowledge that you're town, Flum is the logical kill in the highest percentage of them? Is there more to it than that?

[ghug]

I'm 50/50 on Kak and Jamie (maybe 45/55), but I think it's highly likely that one of them shot Bunny and is partnered with rd, so if we kill Rd now, we should be able to kill both of them.

I'm pretty sure Flum is town because he figured out that it was better for mafia to shoot and then took the pro-town action.

ghug's assessment about jamie and me here makes me remember the game where I subbed in for donny. Where we ended up in the final three and he believed me because I didn't endhammer a sure maf win.

I get the faint feeling this might be maf-ghug happy for a chance to reverse this favour from that time

I do tend to the feeling, that we might need to have a showdown between Flum and RD today, with Flum's message about RD's online status. To find out if Flum said the truth and RD changed it or if it was all just a ruse.

How likely is it that Flum says that online thing about his maf-partner?

Lol you didn't learn anything from that if you think I'd want to do the same thing.