M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[bozotheclown]

In other words, I can see why the bottom 5 have not received any town votes yet.

Wouldn't scum townread at least one of their scumbuddies in order to not have the bottom-ranked candidates *all* be scumbos?

Perhaps, but I thought the scum might be inclined to take the opportunity to buddy some town. In any case, I think it is very unlikely all of the scum are bottom ranked.

[Chaqa]

My initial thought, having played many games with them -

I'm surprised that xorxes and rivera would vote for me for playing how I always do. Seems disingenuous. Not to OMGUS, but I could easily see one or both of them as scum.

rdr strikes me as typical, but I am also noticing a shift in xorxes. Do you think this change is intentional?

Haven't formed a solid conclusion yet. I'd be hesitant to vote for either of them off it alone though.

[Chaqa]

I think Temasek always has inconsistent reads, there's a language barrier, and reaction tests are bullshit.

I'm not against voting for him, but I put a massive grain of salt on any Day 1 wagons that people seem so sure of.

Staying on EMC as a matter of policy until he votes, though.

@Chaqa, I also do not put much stock in Temasek's inconsistent reads. I think that town might be more likely to be inconsistent in their reads, as mafia are likely working harder to be consistent and coherent.

What seemed alignment indicative to me about Temasek was the story he told about purposefully trying to act like scum, and then analyzing the people who read him. It sounded made up. And it seems more likely that scum would make up that story than town would do so. Thoughts?

I think this is the most solid part of the Tem case.

Though, in the past I myself have tried to explain away behavior as a planned reaction test (when it wasn't planned) as both town and scum, so he could be doing so as well, if not wanting to get lynched Day 1.

[Chaqa]

Re Xorxes and Rdrivera, I see what you mean there. But also...parking a vote on Chaqa out of annoyance or "better to lynch a lurker if we're really not sure" is towny in the sense that it's not making a big show out of trying to fabricate a scumhunt. I find that the lower effort vote parking might even tend towards towniness, more often than not, as it is not an effort to blend in.

I would agree in some cases but xorxes and rivera are not ones to usually do this.

Do what, vote for someone that keep giving excuses for not participating like your already did as scum before? You are so lazy this game you even agreed to my lame reason to vote you, saying you are off.

I think you are a good lynch today. But you are lucky that Temasek just suicide either as town or scum so you will have another day to improve.

I don't think me not participating Day 1 is shocking or surprising. Outside a game or two ago, when we had actual information to work with Day 1, I typically wait until Day 2 to be really involved.

[Chaqa]

Truly, even after playing Mafia for like SIX YEARS here, unless there's things like an obvious scumslip, a Day 1 vig shot, etc... I still don't know WTF you all expect of me on Day 1.

There's no information. There's no patterns. There's no night-kills or scans.

It's all just he said/she said, loud yelling, and conspiracy. EMC got lynched Day 1 last game not because of anything he necessarily did in game but because he was his usual self and his teammates bussed him. The games before that too, Day 1 was generally a waste of time until a few days later when we can use it against other data.

Meh.

[bozotheclown]

My next 5 most likely town are brainbomb, bo_sox, damo, Fluminator, and Foxcastle. As a result, my guess is that the 4 scum are in the following:

BunnyGo, Chaqa, emc, Pjandy, sulit, Temasek, Vecna, worcej

I strongly doubt ALL scum are in that list. I also strongly doubt that list is all town. Averaging people's opinions just doesn't work like that man.

I agree it is very unlikely all of the scum are in that list, the point is to try to increase the probability of identifying scum with not much information to work with on D1. There is likely at least one scum who has done a good job at looking like town and ended up on a number of town lists, and it is certain some town have ended up on no town lists.

[worcej]

@Brainbomb, Worcej:
What is your read on Chaqa? What are your reads on each other?

My read on Chaqa is he hasn't really done anything notorious or substantial, which applies to numerous people. I think there are better D1 lynches to be had then him.

[e.m.c^42]

morning all, woke up bit late sorry

Gonna skim quickly

[worcej]

@Brainbomb, Worcej:
What is your read on Chaqa? What are your reads on each other?

I still think worcej is town. had my doubts last night in the bath when rereading his lack of vecna evaluating. he addressed it today.

as for chaqa I actually kinda like his posts. emc has reacted to the push either. so thats worth waiting to see

I forgot brain - I also put him in town based on his play so far. I feel a sense of 'gives a fuck about the game' that will be hard to fake as the game plays out in the event that he is actually scum.

[worcej]

I'm not complaining about the initial vote. That's not a problem. The problem is letting it sit even when there are better places to put it later. It smacks of trying to see what you can get away with (not even getting away with a mislynch, just getting away with not doing anything to draw attention, not doing anything that's helpful VCA later, etc).

Do you think your opinion of 'a better place' is blatantly biased due to the fact it is on you?

I feel like you are trying to sell 'worcej voted for me, therefor is scum'.

I think my attention to your vote is biased because it's on me. I think there's an objective assessment of why your placed your vote and what a reasonable player would have done afterwards when the conditions behind that vote changed that would conclude that you have been inconsistent.

I am not trying to sell 'worcej voted for me, therefor is scum,' I am selling 'worcej laid an anchor vote on a player presumably for being absent, and when his target showed up and was no longer absent, kept it there because his target seemed to get incredible defensive about it and began pushing a counter wagon on the person, which has been seen to be a past behavior by scum!fox when it comes to worcej.'

FTFY

[worcej]

And you don't find that to be a problem from a veteran player like Worcej?

And you don't find it weird that you are singling me out when you have veteran players such as bozo, bo_, xorxes, Vecna, and Chaqa all having only placed one vote and not moved yet?

And before you try to sell they had better reasons when they voted than your 'joke vote' - perhaps your campaign to scum me in the face of the only vote on you has raised my suspicions on you to be more legit?

Fret not though, no one will listen to me anyways.

This is just a bunch of deflection. And it's hardly a campaign to scum you, I pointed out something that I thought looked scummy, and now you've dug your heels in on it.

I also love the chain of you implying that my vote on your is just OMGUS as being the justification for your OMGUS now.

So me finding your defensiveness of one single vote is OMGUS now? Okay, noted.

[Foxcastle]

And you don't find it weird that you are singling me out when you have veteran players such as bozo, bo_, xorxes, Vecna, and Chaqa all having only placed one vote and not moved yet?

And before you try to sell they had better reasons when they voted than your 'joke vote' - perhaps your campaign to scum me in the face of the only vote on you has raised my suspicions on you to be more legit?

Fret not though, no one will listen to me anyways.

This is just a bunch of deflection. And it's hardly a campaign to scum you, I pointed out something that I thought looked scummy, and now you've dug your heels in on it.

I also love the chain of you implying that my vote on your is just OMGUS as being the justification for your OMGUS now.

So me finding your defensiveness of one single vote is OMGUS now? Okay, noted.

So when I claim I have reason to find you suspect, not because of your actual vote, but more because of your subsequent decision to not move it, it's OMGUS, but when you do it, it's a serious concern. You're impossible.

[BunnyGo]

I'm not complaining about the initial vote. That's not a problem. The problem is letting it sit even when there are better places to put it later. It smacks of trying to see what you can get away with (not even getting away with a mislynch, just getting away with not doing anything to draw attention, not doing anything that's helpful VCA later, etc).

Yeah, it's not great. I stand by "annoying". Maybe it even rises to the level of EMC annoying because it gives us nothing to go on when we finally have some data to draw connections. But that by itself is NAI (I think).

If you cannot gain anything out of my comments that I've made so far in the event I flip, then you are clearly not trying to use the bot effectively.

Trying. But as I said, it’s D1. Bot is best after that. And I’m doing this on phone in between work and homeschooling.

[Foxcastle]

Niether of us is going to lynch each other or convince each other today, Worcej. I'm not going to tell you to move your vote, but I don't see any point in going for any more rounds on this during EOD.

[worcej]

And you don't find that to be a problem from a veteran player like Worcej?

And you don't find it weird that you are singling me out when you have veteran players such as bozo, bo_, xorxes, Vecna, and Chaqa all having only placed one vote and not moved yet?

And before you try to sell they had better reasons when they voted than your 'joke vote' - perhaps your campaign to scum me in the face of the only vote on you has raised my suspicions on you to be more legit?

Fret not though, no one will listen to me anyways.

I think Fox is OMGusing you but this isn't scummy, town do this more often. And you are officially on my townreads.

I think your assessment is right for average players, but is that what town!fox does? Recent experiences with town!fox is that he does not OMGUS when he is town imo.

[BunnyGo]

I cannot control wether you find value in each post I make. That's up to you to decide (which you apparently have)

Correct. Usually I find you are content rich in your posts. This game has been less so. But it's D1. D1 is mostly shit...just what I've seen so far.

Okay, I'm going to ask a question you kinda just answered: Do you really think my D1 behavior in this game is different than the last game I played?

I do. Ah. And was the last time when you were scum? Hmm. That’s an interesting point.

[worcej]

Truly, even after playing Mafia for like SIX YEARS here, unless there's things like an obvious scumslip, a Day 1 vig shot, etc... I still don't know WTF you all expect of me on Day 1.

There's no information. There's no patterns. There's no night-kills or scans.

It's all just he said/she said, loud yelling, and conspiracy. EMC got lynched Day 1 last game not because of anything he necessarily did in game but because he was his usual self and his teammates bussed him. The games before that too, Day 1 was generally a waste of time until a few days later when we can use it against other data.

Meh.

Spot on imo. D1 is always a dart throw and people seem to forget about that.

[worcej]

Correct. Usually I find you are content rich in your posts. This game has been less so. But it's D1. D1 is mostly shit...just what I've seen so far.

Okay, I'm going to ask a question you kinda just answered: Do you really think my D1 behavior in this game is different than the last game I played?

I do. Ah. And was the last time when you were scum? Hmm. That’s an interesting point.

You won't have to look far.

[bozotheclown]

There has not been much interest in my suspicion of BunnyGo, so I am going to point again what I found suspicious for future reference.

Balki's first post:

@mafia, I am patient zero. Please protect me, and generally follow my lead.

@town, nothing to see here folks. I'm vanilla town.

@mafia, *wink.

BunnyGo commenting on missing Balki's post:

Jamie, whats your thoughts on this

I don't know why he signed up if that's his shitty attitude.

I think Balki is crafting a persona.

Plus he claimed scum.

##VOTE BALKI

He claimed scum? I missed that; where was it?

BunnyGo calling Balki's post a "town slip" for implying the other mafia do not know the identity of patient zero, although it is not clear why BunnyGo would know this wasn't true at the time if he is town:

Current thoughts on posters so far:

Brain: who knows. I didn’t understand at all his request for people to fill stuff in, and he dropped it reaaaaal easy. Doesn’t feel like brain, but I was wrong last game.

Balki: welcome back! Where’d you go? The post about not understanding how scum work seems Nai to me. My impression is he’s good enough to be faking the town slip. Maybe that’s a sign he’d only do it as scum? Wouldn’t try to townslip as Town?

Vecna: I didn’t see the “under pressure” response. But then gone

Kgray; Welcome. Looking towny to me. Not trying to hide. Pressure pushing.

Xorxes: I dunno. I don’t see the change in attitude alleged above. As worcej pointed out he makes the most insightful comments. But he did this the game he was scum too.

Worcej: feels different to me than recent games, but his kid isn’t a newborn anymore, so could easily just be sleeping better. Somethings different but I don’t know what.

Rdr: that feels like rdr. NAI so far because just one post.

I’m on my phone, did I miss anyone?

BunnyGo again indicating he did not read Balki's initial post:

4? Who made them?

Fluminator, Jamie, Balki, Vecna

Wait, didn't Balki claim patient 0?

There are a number of other posts involved, and I will point out that BunnyGo did respond to my questions about this sequence in case anyone want to investigate further.

[e.m.c^42]

Hm, main case on Tem is that he's been awkward and had seemingly shit and fake explanation as to why. Will admit it is reminiscent of excuse I used as relativenoob!scum, albeit it worked better then.

otoh he appears more useful when scum iirc