M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[worcej]

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

I don’t think it’s anti-town to poll the group on if they think the ghosts are value added or not.

[sweetandcool]

dear sweet and cool

who do you suppose would openly scumclaim to me?

or allow me to do this as some elaborate gambit ploy?

I'll think about it.

On an unrelated note, this start time is bad for my engagement D1, but will be wonderful for future EoDs.

[DemonRHK]

I mean, at some point a claim or two, or even a mass claim could be appropriate. And if you think that claiming is a good idea D1, then you need to strongly think about the setup.

I will admit I have not done the numbers against a mass claim. And I'd rather not debate the scum's optimal stratefy in the first hour of D1. It's early to be claiming, but I don't think it's scum indicative.

[Kakarroto]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

I haven't thought about it too much but it seems obviously beneficial to claim them immediately, right?

My partner is aaro.

well, I got my doubts since I was hit with some big counter argument that it's bad, but I think you know what you are doing, ghug.

[ghug]

Dear sweetandcool

Would you be willing to explain what makes you think I am lying about this?

Because if someone actually did that, it would be completely anti-town. Consequently, you would be willing to name and shame your partner, precipitating a thunderdome in which we day vote your partner, and then you, if need be. The end result being that we catch scum D1 or at least D2.

Or we'll have a prime candidate for LVP to vote for (;

If we bring back in-game MVP/LVP discussion, brain is permanent LVP.

[sweetandcool]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

I haven't thought about it too much but it seems obviously beneficial to claim them immediately, right?

My partner is aaro.

well, I got my doubts since I was hit with some big counter argument that it's bad, but I think you know what you are doing, ghug.

Please no.

Ghug and your dance partner are my current top suspects.

Follow my lead, pal (:

[aarodactyl]

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

I don’t think it’s anti-town to poll the group on if they think the ghosts are value added or not.

I want to play to my outs and one of my outs is that the mafia aren’t good at thinking through how to abuse mechanics.

[brainbomb]

Dear sweetandcool

Would you be willing to explain what makes you think I am lying about this?

Because if someone actually did that, it would be completely anti-town. Consequently, you would be willing to name and shame your partner, precipitating a thunderdome in which we day vote your partner, and then you, if need be. The end result being that we catch scum D1 or at least D2.

Or we'll have a prime candidate for LVP to vote for (;

If we bring back in-game MVP/LVP discussion, brain is permanent LVP.

What prompted you to say that?

Im very confused

[ghug]

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

If you're town, you know information about your group that makes it less likely to contain scum.

Which is already accounted for in the 3/7

You are trolling, yes?

[worcej]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

[ghug]

Because if someone actually did that, it would be completely anti-town. Consequently, you would be willing to name and shame your partner, precipitating a thunderdome in which we day vote your partner, and then you, if need be. The end result being that we catch scum D1 or at least D2.

Or we'll have a prime candidate for LVP to vote for (;

If we bring back in-game MVP/LVP discussion, brain is permanent LVP.

What prompted you to say that?

Im very confused

Scoresheet considered harmful.

[brainbomb]

I am gonna assume that was just a casual joke and not you actually saying you think I am the lvp in every game.

[worcej]

If you're town, you know information about your group that makes it less likely to contain scum.

Which is already accounted for in the 3/7

You are trolling, yes?

I am a process engineer and don’t need to know the complexity of statistics to find an exact percent to justify how I am going to proceed with the problem.

However, my problem is unique because it’s Chaqa.

[brainbomb]

I hadnt even gotten around to what I was trying to do yet. lol

[Kakarroto]

Maybe this will help:

There is a 3/7 chance that a group has a scum in it but there’s a 3/11 chance a town player is in such a group because they can’t be one of the scummy halves of those 3 groups.

I don’t follow your math making. If you are town, you know you are either in one of the 3/7 pairs with a scum or one of the 4/7 that is TvT

At this point, maybe just take my word for it. It also doesn’t really matter for the sake of mafia hunting. I just wanted to show that the most suspicious person mathematically is your partner.

yeah, that's what I've figured too, if we only speak of mathematically chances. Though I didn't do a maths check, I just did an intuition check for that. So while I'm still a bit flabbergasted about your math, I do think you are absolutely correct with the bolded text.

[DemonRHK]

I am gonna assume that was just a casual joke and not you actually saying you think I am the lvp in every game.

Especially with me in the game, lol

[ghug]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

Worcej: Thinks it's more likely a given townie is paired with scum than is actually the case.
Also worcej: Thinks the conclusion we should draw from that is that a townie should think their partner is townier.

[ghug]

Which is already accounted for in the 3/7

You are trolling, yes?

I am a process engineer and don’t need to know the complexity of statistics to find an exact percent to justify how I am going to proceed with the problem.

However, my problem is unique because it’s Chaqa.

Chaqa is a unique problem, yes.

Don't claim your partner.

[Kakarroto]

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

Maybe we should just make all the pairs with scum in them claim, then.

that's a great idea!


how do we do that?

[aarodactyl]

FWIW Aaro, I think your statistics are overly complicated for the sake of nothing.

Reality is this - there are 3 dance partners that have scum in them and 4 that don’t. If you’re town, you have better odds that your partner is town than they are scum - act accordingly or don’t.

My job is literally to be good at stuff like this. It’s also basic combinatorics.