Re: Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD
Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2019 6:59 pm
Anyway, on to Day 2...
ITEM. Balki shows up a few hours after D2 starts with a longish post. In it, he backs off the Flavius wagon, and then throws out a list of scumreads based on “current mindset”: Foxy, Prado, Percy, Neph.
Would Balki list a scummate? I mean, I think he would, but did he? The other interesting thing about this is that Balki is kinda just amplifying a bunch of current reads from other people. When he said this, TrPrado was the lead wagon, Percy, Neph, and I each had one vote (and Neph had been pushed a little earlier, having 2 votes at one point). Or was Balki just trying to amplify a bunch of town wagons?
ITEM. Also in Balki’s initial D2 post, he calls for the judge to use his power. We know now this is a pretty anti-town thing to want, but obviously Balki saw that it was going to be a bad idea. He obviously didn’t expect it would catch et, though. But based on who the likely judge targets might have been, I think that means the leading contenders early on D2 were not scum.
To be self-indulgent for a moment, I think that’s a point in my favor as town. But I also think it’s a slight point in favor of Flavius being town, as well. Even though his wagon had the push on him had mostly left off, there was a lingering question of whether he’d been saved D1.
ITEM. Was Flavius coached by the mafia team in the night? It seems likely that there would have been a discussion led by Balki, Xorxes, and Damo pointed mainly at the newer players about D2 strategy. (Need to follow up on this...)
ITEM. A bit after Balki makes his reads list I mentioned above, Flavius comments on using the judge by putting an “obvious town” up against “someone we think is mafia” for an easy lynch. One, this looks scummy on its own. But Two, he seems to be using Balki’s reads list. “Connor is clearly the obvious town, TrPrado or FoxCastle [are scum]”... Hm.
Interesting that Balki’s response is not to scumread this, but to call it “utterly bizarre” and push back on Flavius reading Connor as obvious town, and express bewilderment at Flavius’s proposal. Balki says, “I’m super lost,” but that seems way out of character for Balki...
Flavius responds a bit later with a simple explanatory post. None of the whining belligerence that characterizes his responses to others....
I would call this a scummy looking interaction for Flavius.
ITEM. Flavius makes a scumreads list on P.114. It’s Foxcastle, TrPrado, xorxes, Espresso.
Had he been coached to bus Xorxes? That seems possible that the scumteam would have suggested that, with Xorxes reputation for being easy to catch as scum after a day or two...
But this read is very thin, he bases it on how much Xorxes has talked compared to M45 and M1007... (And then adds EspressoPatronum without any real justification?) And I don’t seem him mentioning Xorxes much at all before this... (This needs follow up to see if Flav actually has a valid progression on Xorxes.)
ITEM. On p. 120, Et townreads Flavius. He also townreads Chippe, Percy, and Teacon.
ITEM. On p. 122, Damo gives a reads list.
Town or Townlean: Balki, Connor, Durga, EP, Flav, ND, Percy, Teacon, Xorxes
Null/SK: et, Foxcastle (SK), MoscowFleet, Rdrivera, Teacon (SK), Tom, TrPrado (SK)
Scum: Chippe, Neph, Squigs, Foxcastle, Teacon, Tom, TrPrado.
So at this point, Damo is not bussing anyone directly. The worst read he gives his scummates is null. On Day 3, he scumreads Connor. This is after a variety of pushes on him to participate more.
ITEM. Damo’s little Day 4 spat over Connor’s name could be an indicator that they were getting chummy in the maf qt...
ITEM. Balki really tried to save et on D2. Why would he do that after bussing Flavius pretty hard on D1? (Possibly, he knew et was a better deep threat and Flavius’s tone might get him lynched.) This supports, slightly, Flavius being town.
ITEM. On p139, Connor calls for a tie or no-lynch. But continues to vote for et... This does not seem great for Connor, trying to hedge and have it both ways. But Flavius also goes for a tie, and then tries to have it both ways by encouraging people to not lynch Espresso. Fuck, this is cloudy!
ITEM. On p. 143, et makes a reads list of the scumteam as: Damo, Neph, Flav, Xorxes, and Percy. He’s got 2 in there. At 43 minutes out, he could still flip, so he was going for maximum WIFOM. Did he put 3 scum in his list? That seems bold... I think this points to Flav and Percy being town, and that leaves Connor as scum.
ITEM. Balki shows up a few hours after D2 starts with a longish post. In it, he backs off the Flavius wagon, and then throws out a list of scumreads based on “current mindset”: Foxy, Prado, Percy, Neph.
Would Balki list a scummate? I mean, I think he would, but did he? The other interesting thing about this is that Balki is kinda just amplifying a bunch of current reads from other people. When he said this, TrPrado was the lead wagon, Percy, Neph, and I each had one vote (and Neph had been pushed a little earlier, having 2 votes at one point). Or was Balki just trying to amplify a bunch of town wagons?
ITEM. Also in Balki’s initial D2 post, he calls for the judge to use his power. We know now this is a pretty anti-town thing to want, but obviously Balki saw that it was going to be a bad idea. He obviously didn’t expect it would catch et, though. But based on who the likely judge targets might have been, I think that means the leading contenders early on D2 were not scum.
To be self-indulgent for a moment, I think that’s a point in my favor as town. But I also think it’s a slight point in favor of Flavius being town, as well. Even though his wagon had the push on him had mostly left off, there was a lingering question of whether he’d been saved D1.
ITEM. Was Flavius coached by the mafia team in the night? It seems likely that there would have been a discussion led by Balki, Xorxes, and Damo pointed mainly at the newer players about D2 strategy. (Need to follow up on this...)
ITEM. A bit after Balki makes his reads list I mentioned above, Flavius comments on using the judge by putting an “obvious town” up against “someone we think is mafia” for an easy lynch. One, this looks scummy on its own. But Two, he seems to be using Balki’s reads list. “Connor is clearly the obvious town, TrPrado or FoxCastle [are scum]”... Hm.
Interesting that Balki’s response is not to scumread this, but to call it “utterly bizarre” and push back on Flavius reading Connor as obvious town, and express bewilderment at Flavius’s proposal. Balki says, “I’m super lost,” but that seems way out of character for Balki...
Flavius responds a bit later with a simple explanatory post. None of the whining belligerence that characterizes his responses to others....
I would call this a scummy looking interaction for Flavius.
ITEM. Flavius makes a scumreads list on P.114. It’s Foxcastle, TrPrado, xorxes, Espresso.
Had he been coached to bus Xorxes? That seems possible that the scumteam would have suggested that, with Xorxes reputation for being easy to catch as scum after a day or two...
But this read is very thin, he bases it on how much Xorxes has talked compared to M45 and M1007... (And then adds EspressoPatronum without any real justification?) And I don’t seem him mentioning Xorxes much at all before this... (This needs follow up to see if Flav actually has a valid progression on Xorxes.)
ITEM. On p. 120, Et townreads Flavius. He also townreads Chippe, Percy, and Teacon.
ITEM. On p. 122, Damo gives a reads list.
Town or Townlean: Balki, Connor, Durga, EP, Flav, ND, Percy, Teacon, Xorxes
Null/SK: et, Foxcastle (SK), MoscowFleet, Rdrivera, Teacon (SK), Tom, TrPrado (SK)
Scum: Chippe, Neph, Squigs, Foxcastle, Teacon, Tom, TrPrado.
So at this point, Damo is not bussing anyone directly. The worst read he gives his scummates is null. On Day 3, he scumreads Connor. This is after a variety of pushes on him to participate more.
ITEM. Damo’s little Day 4 spat over Connor’s name could be an indicator that they were getting chummy in the maf qt...
ITEM. Balki really tried to save et on D2. Why would he do that after bussing Flavius pretty hard on D1? (Possibly, he knew et was a better deep threat and Flavius’s tone might get him lynched.) This supports, slightly, Flavius being town.
ITEM. On p139, Connor calls for a tie or no-lynch. But continues to vote for et... This does not seem great for Connor, trying to hedge and have it both ways. But Flavius also goes for a tie, and then tries to have it both ways by encouraging people to not lynch Espresso. Fuck, this is cloudy!
ITEM. On p. 143, et makes a reads list of the scumteam as: Damo, Neph, Flav, Xorxes, and Percy. He’s got 2 in there. At 43 minutes out, he could still flip, so he was going for maximum WIFOM. Did he put 3 scum in his list? That seems bold... I think this points to Flav and Percy being town, and that leaves Connor as scum.