Mafia 56: Scout Camp

[xorxes]

Which players are playing their first mafia game right now?

JF1981
Macca573
TheFlyingBoat
TheRealCottonmouth

Or at least their first game here.

[damo666]

Thanks Damo! This is what I wanted, some math.

Another reason why I am beginning to scum damo - the math was worthless and hooked someone because it looks smart.

Damo usually tries to do 'good math' and not distraction math.

It's weird that macca was hooked by this, because his mantra has been being paranoid of people with "knowledge".

I thnk he was just seeking some ratinale behind the massclaim concept and he found this convincing.

[xorxes]

Because anyone that is town with a damn brain should've seen this through and been saying the claim is bad because of it.

Yet I don't see many people doing that. I am beginning to wonder if there are only 5 town and 15 scum.

Not sure if you think being obnoxious makes you look more towny.

I'm still not sure if you think the massclaim is bad because it "breaks the game" (makes the game too easy for town), or whether it is bad because it makes the game easier for scum. You have argued both sides of that, which is contradictory.

How is it contradictory?

It breaks the game because we start just picking people out of piles. The game is deduction and investigation. You may think that continues, but just looking at one group at a time and swapping back and forth is dumb.

It helps the scum because it highlights a perfect group for them to kill in and allows the scum to make themselves look better by focusing on specific players and not have to focus on others.

Still contradictory. If the massclaim benefits scum, then it clearly does not break the game.

[damo666]

@Xorxes

your opinion on Bozo please

He has certainly pushed for the massclaim, which gives him townie points in my eyes. There was one game in which a massclaim was the obvious thing to do, he didn't push for it, I did not make the effort for some reason either but I later repented not doing it, and he turned out to be scum. Not conclusive, but leaning town.

Well, I think Bozo is town. Take a look at the voters on the Bozo wagon and the VT claimants. I think we are gonna whittle this down very quickly.

[bozotheclown]

In terms of horrible numbers, what really stuck out to me was bozo saying that if we had more than 8 PR claims we should get all the PRs to claim roles so that we can root out mafia. I cannot see any way that getting 1 or 2 mafia into a group of three to lynch from while simultaneously revealing exactly where to hit to nullify our best PR actions is a good thing. Not only that, he thought that (assuming one scum claimed Medic and one claimed cool guy) that a 1/3 chance of lynching correctly out of a pool of 2 PRs and one scum was a good deal. I can see no way town benefits from that. And I don't think bozo is stupid enough to mess up the numbers that badly.

I believe the mass claim benefits town if the scum choose to do that. However, we do not need to do the full mass claim immediately, certainly not D1. Maybe N1 if more than 1 scum claim PR.

Why would you want to allow the scum to coordinate their PR claims?

If you don't want them to coordinate the piles on D1, you would need them to not coordinate the claims for roles.

You are so obviously scum.

Maybe N1 depending on how many scum claim PRs, before any PRs are NKed, but at EOD so the PRs can get their actions in. It does not look like this will be necessary, though, despite your efforts to get scum to claim PR.

[worcej]

would be really funny if theres a buddy chat with 2 scum lol

Worcej said there is one.

I mean, say someone is scum and Squigs is assigning pairs by randomization - the options for pairs are the following:

S-S: 4/17 - 23.5%
S-T: 13/17 - 76.5%

As pairs "pair up", the odds get better for S-S get better because a T-T pair reduces the pool by 2 for either side, but scum still stay available.

Lets say the first pair was a T-T, then the options for a scum player's pair are now:

S-S: 4/15 - 26.7%
S-T: 11/15 - 73.3%

Say they draw a S-T, then another T-T is drawn. Next scum's pair chances are:

S-S: 3/11 - 27.3%
S-T: 8/11 - 72.7%

I could keep going but I think you see my point.

[Vecna]

I believe the mass claim benefits town if the scum choose to do that. However, we do not need to do the full mass claim immediately, certainly not D1. Maybe N1 if more than 1 scum claim PR.

This is a horrible statement

Why?

Because scum can pool their knowledge together during the night from what they learned in all buddy chats and come up with a coordinated plan on what to claim?

duh?

[bozotheclown]

PR: xorxes, Vecna, flash, emc, TFB, Bismarck, JF (7)
VT: damo, rdrivera, HR, bozo, Durga, Donny, summit, brainbomb, Macca, BobMcBob (10)

Have not heard from since PR/VT mass claim began:
TRC

Others:
worcej, Chaqa

Probably 1 PR and 2 scum left.

[worcej]

Not sure if you think being obnoxious makes you look more towny.

I'm still not sure if you think the massclaim is bad because it "breaks the game" (makes the game too easy for town), or whether it is bad because it makes the game easier for scum. You have argued both sides of that, which is contradictory.

How is it contradictory?

It breaks the game because we start just picking people out of piles. The game is deduction and investigation. You may think that continues, but just looking at one group at a time and swapping back and forth is dumb.

It helps the scum because it highlights a perfect group for them to kill in and allows the scum to make themselves look better by focusing on specific players and not have to focus on others.

Still contradictory. If the massclaim benefits scum, then it clearly does not break the game.

Your opinion on contradiction is noted and received.

It's been filled in the 'don't give a fuck' folder.

[bozotheclown]

This is a horrible statement

Why?

Because scum can pool their knowledge together during the night from what they learned in all buddy chats and come up with a coordinated plan on what to claim?

duh?

It looks like they are going to have 0 or 1 PR claims to coordinate, though.

[worcej]

Another reason why I am beginning to scum damo - the math was worthless and hooked someone because it looks smart.

Damo usually tries to do 'good math' and not distraction math.

It's weird that macca was hooked by this, because his mantra has been being paranoid of people with "knowledge".

I thnk he was just seeking some ratinale behind the massclaim concept and he found this convincing.

So why did you use meaningless math to try to convince someone?

[Chaqa]

Totally blanked on this game, woops.

I'm working until after the phase shift, so I doubt I'll get fully caught up in time considering my initial read was already pretty much skimming. Can a few people give me TL;DRs?

3 more players to complete the VT/PR massclaim. Worcej refusing until all others have claimed. Thereal is MIA. You're the third.

Another fucking massclaim game?

Why do we even bother playing mafia if we’re gonna do this every time

[Vecna]

would be really funny if theres a buddy chat with 2 scum lol

Worcej said there is one.

I mean, say someone is scum and Squigs is assigning pairs by randomization - the options for pairs are the following:

S-S: 4/17 - 23.5%
S-T: 13/17 - 76.5%

As pairs "pair up", the odds get better for S-S get better because a T-T pair reduces the pool by 2 for either side, but scum still stay available.

Lets say the first pair was a T-T, then the options for a scum player's pair are now:

S-S: 4/15 - 26.7%
S-T: 11/15 - 73.3%

Say they draw a S-T, then another T-T is drawn. Next scum's pair chances are:

S-S: 3/11 - 27.3%
S-T: 8/11 - 72.7%

I could keep going but I think you see my point.

The math is slightly more complicated because one scum could also be left out of buddy chats entirely. If you assume all scum got into buddychats, the order is irrelevant, and the odds of at least one s-s pairing is 68%

[worcej]

Totally blanked on this game, woops.

I'm working until after the phase shift, so I doubt I'll get fully caught up in time considering my initial read was already pretty much skimming. Can a few people give me TL;DRs?

3 more players to complete the VT/PR massclaim. Worcej refusing until all others have claimed. Thereal is MIA. You're the third.

Another fucking massclaim game?

Why do we even bother playing mafia if we’re gonna do this every time

If only you were here early enough to try to speak out against it.

[worcej]

Worcej said there is one.

I mean, say someone is scum and Squigs is assigning pairs by randomization - the options for pairs are the following:

S-S: 4/17 - 23.5%
S-T: 13/17 - 76.5%

As pairs "pair up", the odds get better for S-S get better because a T-T pair reduces the pool by 2 for either side, but scum still stay available.

Lets say the first pair was a T-T, then the options for a scum player's pair are now:

S-S: 4/15 - 26.7%
S-T: 11/15 - 73.3%

Say they draw a S-T, then another T-T is drawn. Next scum's pair chances are:

S-S: 3/11 - 27.3%
S-T: 8/11 - 72.7%

I could keep going but I think you see my point.

The math is slightly more complicated because one scum could also be left out of buddy chats entirely. If you assume all scum got into buddychats, the order is irrelevant, and the odds of at least one s-s pairing is 68%

I should've taken statistics in college instead of advanced calculus honestly. I use simple stats a lot in work, but thank god for Minitab!

[xorxes]

@Xorxes

your opinion on Bozo please

He has certainly pushed for the massclaim, which gives him townie points in my eyes. There was one game in which a massclaim was the obvious thing to do, he didn't push for it, I did not make the effort for some reason either but I later repented not doing it, and he turned out to be scum. Not conclusive, but leaning town.

Well, I think Bozo is town. Take a look at the voters on the Bozo wagon and the VT claimants. I think we are gonna whittle this down very quickly.

You think they're trying to save worcej?

[damo666]

It's weird that macca was hooked by this, because his mantra has been being paranoid of people with "knowledge".

I thnk he was just seeking some ratinale behind the massclaim concept and he found this convincing.

So why did you use meaningless math to try to convince someone?

It's not meaningless

[worcej]

I thnk he was just seeking some ratinale behind the massclaim concept and he found this convincing.

So why did you use meaningless math to try to convince someone?

It's not meaningless

Yes it is.

Reducing the 5 team possibilities by 94% based on piles doesn't matter in actually finding a scum player.

[Durga]

He has certainly pushed for the massclaim, which gives him townie points in my eyes. There was one game in which a massclaim was the obvious thing to do, he didn't push for it, I did not make the effort for some reason either but I later repented not doing it, and he turned out to be scum. Not conclusive, but leaning town.

Well, I think Bozo is town. Take a look at the voters on the Bozo wagon and the VT claimants. I think we are gonna whittle this down very quickly.

You think they're trying to save worcej?

Is worcej's scum game so aggressive?

[damo666]

Worcej said there is one.

I mean, say someone is scum and Squigs is assigning pairs by randomization - the options for pairs are the following:

S-S: 4/17 - 23.5%
S-T: 13/17 - 76.5%

As pairs "pair up", the odds get better for S-S get better because a T-T pair reduces the pool by 2 for either side, but scum still stay available.

Lets say the first pair was a T-T, then the options for a scum player's pair are now:

S-S: 4/15 - 26.7%
S-T: 11/15 - 73.3%

Say they draw a S-T, then another T-T is drawn. Next scum's pair chances are:

S-S: 3/11 - 27.3%
S-T: 8/11 - 72.7%

I could keep going but I think you see my point.

The math is slightly more complicated because one scum could also be left out of buddy chats entirely. If you assume all scum got into buddychats, the order is irrelevant, and the odds of at least one s-s pairing is 68%

The probability of at least one scum pair is 56.6% and 43.4% no scum pairs. I have allowed for the possibility that a scum may be unbuddied.