M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

Vote Count 2.3
TheFlyingBoat: (6) bozotheclown, damo666, rdrivera2005, celaph, President Eden, Maniac
Maniac: (6) Jamiet99uk, BusinessLamp, Chaqa, TheFlyingBoat, BesharamSabi, ghug
celaph: (5) DemonRHK, Bonatogether, pyxxy, worcej, brainbomb


Currently nobody is set to forcibly die of old age

DEADLINE IS IN 21 MINUTES

21 minutes to go and oh lawd
look

oh lawd he comin
big chungus maniac is waggin hard


again no wrong answers but yea how many scumbos are on that maniac train at 21 min to go

blamp imo

[Chaqa]

Here's my original analysis for reference:

https://i.imgur.com/dFYQOrd.png

This image highlights an important timeline in D1.

Specifically, I'm looking at who was NOT voting for celaph or TFB in the second row.

Blamp
Damo
Demon
ghug
Jamie
pyxxy
TFB
rivera
Maccaworcej

Damo is dead town. Jamie is clear. Takng out Demon b/c his next vote is onto celaph, which I believe he does not do as scum since celaph was the Godfather.

Blamp
ghug
pyxxy
TFB
rivera
Maccaworcej

Interesting list.

One conf scum (TFB) as well as all the other players in our PoE :)

By Day 2, mafia has had time to deliberate and also find out what their Flipper chose. A strategy begins to form. Keep an eye on celaph, TFB, and our gang of five:

Blamp
ghuginator
pyxxy
rivera
Maccaworcej

What's interesting is that TFB, despite not voting celaph Day 1, piles on him early on Day 2, stays with the celaph wagon, except for a brief stint over to Maniac. This makes me think that during the night, mafia planned to bus celaph. TFB (and likely his teammates) put effort into saving TFB at the expense of celaph (at least this is my assertion).

Therefore, I find those who voted onto TFB during this early period and later to be less likely to be scum: brain and rivera (this actually is some solid evidence rivera might be town, IMO).

There is also a nascent Maniac wagon being formed here by Blamp and then Jamie and then ghug. This might be a counter wagon to protect both teammates? When I switched over to Maniac, i was followed by TFB and then Sabi. This is one mark against Sabi, though there are not many others.

During this time, ghug never votes for celaph or TFB. He is always lock solid on Maniac. When it is tied 6-6 between TFB and Maniac with celaph at 5, TFB and Blamp move to celaph to seal his fate.

Updated PoE coming soon.

[brainbomb]

People who had no impact on D1 eod
ghug
worcej
rdrivera

People who are still in the POE who tried to kill kak D1
pyxxy
businesslamp


if a busser is on cel d1 it means their teammate was inactive and is among the ghug-worc-rivera pool

[Chaqa]

Day 1:
Kakarroto (9): damo666, pyxxy, BesharamSabi, TheFlyingBoat, Maniac, celaph, bozotheclown, BusinessLamp, Jamiet99uk
celaph (6): Bonatogether, President Eden, brainbomb, DemonRHK, Kakarroto, Chaqa
bozotheclown (1): ghug
TheFlyingBoat (1): snowy801

Day 2:
celaph (8): DemonRHK, Bonatogether, pyxxy, worcej, brainbomb, BusinessLamp, TheFlyingBoat, damo666
TheFlyingBoat (6): bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, celaph, Maniac, Chaqa, President Eden
Maniac (3): Jamiet99uk, BesharamSabi, ghug

Day 4:
BesharamSabi (6): worcej, Jamiet99uk, BusinessLamp, Fluminator, brainbomb, Bonatogether
Fluminator (4): rdrivera2005, DemonRHK, BesharamSabi, Chaqa
DemonRHK (3): bozotheclown, President Eden, pyxxy

[brainbomb]

I would prefer we only use these with coloration of confirmed dead flips to keep it simple

but if that helps someone okay

[Chaqa]

The analysis I did previously hasn't really been affected by Sabi's flip... it still points to the group previously.

[Chaqa]

I would prefer we only use these with coloration of confirmed dead flips to keep it simple

but if that helps someone okay

Green are conf town.

Consider the blue equal to the gray if you want, it's mostly for me.

[brainbomb]

can I just say bozo was a horrible person to scan lol
hes basically just hidden in the bat cave every phase

[Chaqa]

can I just say bozo was a horrible person to scan lol
hes basically just hidden in the bat cave every phase

In retrospect ghug would have been an excellent scan

[Chaqa]

I think I’m taking rivera out of my PoE for awhile.

I feel he’s town. I really don’t think any scum voted for TFB besides celaph on day 2

[Chaqa]

I'm also beginning to wonder about pyxxy.

But for now ##Vote BusinessLamp

Blamp -

I'm not certain you're scum by any means. The data and theories back it up, but some contextual and anecdotal evidence doesn't. If you are town, I think your death will help us narrow down the pool and catch the scumteam.

[brainbomb]

I think I’m taking rivera out of my PoE for awhile.

I feel he’s town. I really don’t think any scum voted for TFB besides celaph on day 2

sensible take
like why would scum wanna be sure he janitor dies before even using powers
Vs
scum wanting a godfather to flip who is so overdue to die no cop would burn a scan at that point anyway

[Chaqa]

I think I’m taking rivera out of my PoE for awhile.

I feel he’s town. I really don’t think any scum voted for TFB besides celaph on day 2

sensible take
like why would scum wanna be sure he janitor dies before even using powers
Vs
scum wanting a godfather to flip who is so overdue to die no cop would burn a scan at that point anyway

That's what I'm thinking.

The Maniac wagon also seems like a potential move to save both scum, with TFB on it, and possibly Blamp if he's scum. This would also maybe implicate ghug/Flum, but I'm not as sure on that front for now.

This is one of those games where everything seem really obvious but not quite right.

[brainbomb]

how hilarious would this all be if kakarrotto was actaully flipper and were really just lookin for one guy

[Chaqa]

how hilarious would this all be if kakarrotto was actaully flipper and were really just lookin for one guy

I think that's about a 1% chance, tbh.

If anyone so far has been Flipper, it's Sabi, and I think that's only like a 5% chance.

[pyxxy]

I'm also beginning to wonder about pyxxy.

But for now ##Vote BusinessLamp

Blamp -

I'm not certain you're scum by any means. The data and theories back it up, but some contextual and anecdotal evidence doesn't. If you are town, I think your death will help us narrow down the pool and catch the scumteam.

This was my D1 reasoning behind my Kak vote, for reference:

I don't know if I trust my own vibes enough yet to be willing to name anyone.

My concern then, is, how often do people just vote out low posters and does low posting actually have a decent track record for finding scum? Or is it just a good way of creating "good chat" and generally gathering more D1 info for town to reference in the future?

imo just go for it, act hyper confident in every whim or thought you have and pursue them to the fullest degree. it's a game and more fun that way. if you're wrong that's okay. if you're right then you get bragging rights for the rest of your life. plus, as long as there is some basis to your thoughts, it helps prod discussion.

and in my experience of one (1) game here it was talked about a bit but no one ever voted off lurkers or low posters. which led to a lackluster endgame kinda. no idea on stats

Okay!

##VOTE Kakarroto

Gonna go get brunch with a friend, idk if I'll check the game again before EOD

(dammit Sabi beat me to it, now it looks like I'm sheeping )

There's even more context if you follow the innermost quote:

Q for TFB: kak vs demon? Preference? Or not picky?

I prefer Kak and am open to Demon. Kak is really bad though to me given he has literally only made one real post (that one actual post was decent and I've credited him for it. And then he responds to my pressure with a "lol nah I'm not going to participate byeee" which really irritated me

Thank you for getting around to this, no sarcasm intended.

Clucking slowly intensifies around the barn

Pyxxy when are you going to grace us with your reads so far?

I don't know if I trust my own vibes enough yet to be willing to name anyone.

Although it seems like naming someone
1) doesn't really affect one's own reputation

1a) unless you get accused of sheeping
1ai) I had to look up what sheeping means
1aii) and even sheeping seems okay because the general strategy seems to be somewhat randomly applying pressure in funny ways to people, akin to having "good chat" on Love Island
1aiii) yes I also looked up Random Voting Stage

1b) unless you disappear afterwards and don't post again
1bi) except not really (cough, looks in a particular direction)
1bii) jk Celaph posted after the parent's day excuse

2) is fun

I was mildly interested in boatty mcboatface but I think he was just busy/offline. And he did finally get around to my question. And his answer about Kak makes sense/is verifiable (I also also looked by what ISO/iso means and figured out how to do it on the bot, v proud of myself rn).

My concern then, is, how often do people just vote out low posters and does low posting actually have a decent track record for finding scum? Or is it just a good way of creating "good chat" and generally gathering more D1 info for town to reference in the future?

Also maybe I missed this but can anyone somewhat confirm Demon's claim that there have been 1+ games lost to not sussing a sub enough?

tl;dr:
- I have newbies questions about voting for low posters and mention Kak as an option
- TFB answers and supports me voting for Kak (vs Demon!)
- Businesslamp also encourages me to vote Kak
- I vote Kak and dip for the rest of the day (not understanding how important EODs were yet)

[brainbomb]

pyxxy have you played mafia before?

[brainbomb]

played mafia pyxxy have before you?

[Chaqa]

This is likely my last day phase.

Brain, once I'm gone, I need you, if nothing else, to trust Eden and myself and trust Bona. He's a good guy.

[brainbomb]

mmk