MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

At the time of the middle quote EMC and Bona were I think the top 2 wagons and I definitely didn't want Bona and wasn't feeling EMC at the time after him v HB. I much preferred celaph or the others.

I've now bumped EMC back up the list a bit. That's about it really. The main thing is I wanted movement from where we were at that time.

Ok Damo, thanks. I wasn't saying you were scummy, I just noticed that EMC disappeared from your list of four or five scum-targets, and then re-appeared on it, and I wasn't sure why. Thanks for the explanation.

In other news, the review of Celaph's voting history supports your suggestion that Celaph should be seriously under consideration to be considered tomorrow.

[Fluminator]

I'm about to get voted out for being an evil dictator in the circle game so I might have more time tomorrow.

[aarodactyl]

I'm about to get voted out for being an evil dictator in the circle game so I might have more time tomorrow.

sorry about that. It had to be done

[Jamiet99uk]

Speaking of EMC and Celaph, do you notice that both of them have gone missing?

[President Eden]

I'm about to get voted out for being an evil dictator in the circle game so I might have more time tomorrow.

I tried to warn you about exiling that guy man. I know he was kind of a toxic player but you have to be wary of how much pull those types of people have.

[Donny Dude]

Speaking of EMC and Celaph, do you notice that both of them have gone missing?

I have. This is to see if there a disparity in posting quantity between day and night for emc celaph and flum. I know the bot may have posts in the wrong day or night or be mistimed but this should be accurate enough barometer.
D1 95 emc 27 celaph durga 113
n1 24 emc 6 celaph durga 28

d2 64 emc 22 celaph flum 55 Durga 45
n2 13 emc 12 celaph flum 11

d3 12 emc 2 celaph flum 11
n3 7 emc 2 celaph flum 13

d4 55 emc 22 celaph flum 23
n4 10 emc 13 celaph flum 9

d5 37 emc 33 celaph flum 27
n5 so far 0 emc 0 celaph flum 7

[worcej]

Hi everyone. Sorry I wasn't on at EoD. I genuinely was working on something for my actual work, until nearly midnight, and went to sleep soon after that. (While I'm *usually* around at 1am I can't guarantee it).

So I see you did vote out Bona. RIP Bona. I hope that as I catch up I'll see some great posts from Worcej explaining everything we learned from flipping one of his townreads.

I did put it out there for you, so it's up to you to agree with it or not.

Well on reading your posts, it seems you're saying:

1. Hamilton Brian does not play well under pressure.
- We knew this before Bonatogether flipped. We all saw his response to being questioned and pressured.

2. Scum hoped to make Bona the main counter-wagon to Ghug.
- This appears accurate, but surely you must already have assumed this because you said you thought Bona was town when you voted for him? So all this does is confirm something it was entirely reasonable to assume already.

3. Celaph, EMC, and Donny are suspect for their vote moves on the day Ghug was hanged.
- Ok, I'll take a look at their vote history in case you're on to anything here.

4. You think that I "stick out" for not moving off Ghug.
- Of course I didn't move off Ghug, I caught him in a scumslip and I wanted to flip him.

Point 3 might be interesting depending on what can be gleaned from Celaph, EMC, and Donny's vote history, but the other three points are meh.

Response to #4 - you're the only one that sticks out as someone that couldn't move easily out of the unconfirmed ghug voters. This is more a reflection of if anyone believes the remaining scum were in unfortunate positions to not be able to move, you are the most obvious candidate for that.

[worcej]

Actually wait. Worcej has it totally backwards.

@Worcej: Fluminator was one of Bona's most vocal defenders and repeatedly argued against his wagon. Why are you accusing him of revisionism?

Because I'm American and like using big words incorrectly. It makes me feel special.

[worcej]

We should flip worcej next to make it 2/2 on killing obvious town

Shhh... obvious town usually get NK'ed and I like this game too much to want to die.

[worcej]

I think we NEED to flip worcej EVEN IF HE IS TOWN because we need to figure out how Day 1 REALLY went down.

Go for it - but try to frame your own argument instead of re-purposing my clearly awesome ones.

[worcej]

I think we NEED to flip worcej EVEN IF HE IS TOWN because we need to figure out how Day 1 REALLY went down.

This is the same thing worcej said but for d2.
So no lets find scum instead of getting mired in the past although it provides information.

Scummy vibes from Donny's post, FWIW.

[celaph]

I forgot Donny Dude was off wagon, damn. I want to give him a pass for looking more invested than all the other names.

Let me take it from the top:

1. Chaqa is likely right that no ghug voters are mafia given the close split...
a) worcej and Jamie committed early, often, and strongly. Strange thing to do if they're partners with ghug, given he was Roleblocker.
b) Chaqa sussed ghug for most of days 1 and 2 and moved to ghug after it became clear that the wagons were going to be ghug and Bona. aaro wasn't sussing ghug as hard as Chaqa, but sussed him much harder than Bona ("two tiers," per the vote post), and moved in the same timeframe.
c) damo hopped on at the last minute after chaos ensued. Unlike the others, damo did actually leave the option open to go for either wagon late, but that actually works in favor of him here because of how chaotic the end of the day was. I guess I was grilling him during it, and maybe he felt like he couldn't afford to be on Bona at the end. I think he's fine though.

2. There are three off-wagons that need examination:
a) Donny Dude was around for end of day and voted bozo. Donny avoided voting for Bona specifically because he didn't like the voters, which is turning out to be prescient (and it should be noted that his vote is on one of said voters - it makes sense that if he susses bozo, he wouldn't vote for the same person that bozo voted). I am trying to leave out behavioral analysis for this so I won't go into that here.
b) celaph wasn't around for EOD and let us know in advance. At the time, emc was a decent minor wagon. celaph had a couple questions for Bona but didn't mention Bona as a suspect or townread really. celaph had some nuanced ideas about ghug that impressed me at the time, but look a lot worse now that we know ghug was mafia. The mafia failing to consolidate on Bona is the big puzzle right now, and celaph being AFK provides one possible answer.
c) emc was also around for EOD and also parked on an off-wagon (Jamie). This off-wagon was like the next level of OMGUS - sussing someone for not sussing you. The interesting thing to me is that emc had a ready-made excuse to vote Bona here - namely that Jamie, emc's top suspect, was pushing ghug hard, and Bona was the main counterwagon - and emc just didn't take it. That's probably a good sign.

celaph looks the worst of those, since being AFK would be a factor in why the mafia failed to get on the same page. I forget who said it (worcej?) but Brian probably made a "hero play" moving to brainbomb to force a tie, and could only have done that if everyone else were locked in. Mafia being AFK contributes to that.

3. Finally, there's the Bona voters themselves.
a) I've covered myself already, obviously I know I am town, but I think the evidence strongly favors me being town even though I voted wrong.
b) Hellenic Riot I suppose you could shade for pushing the counterwagon to ghug, and for calling into question the ghug wagon. However, his reason for questioning the ghug wagon was sound - the "slip" idea was logically flawed even if it got the right result - and HR has been consistent in pushing Bona since then, and pushed the vote onto Hamilton Brian the hardest. I'm not inclined to look here.
c) Fluminator outright stated he was sheeping HR onto Bona. Slightly funny note that the only mention of Bona in his Day 2 outside of his vote is questioning why Bunny wanted to reread Hamilton Brian instead of Bona... that said, it's clear Fluminator was referencing the size of the wagons, and I don't attribute any specific intent to that, it's just funny in hindsight. Regardless, Fluminator was generally giving ghug a pass for day 2.
It's hard to read too much into Fluminator beyond the fact that he was on the wrong wagon and not doing much of his own homework in the process, since he replaced halfway through the day.
d) bozotheclown voted Bona at a point when the three options were ghug, Bona, and emc. He did so because he townread emc for EOD1 voting pattern, and because he didn't like the logic behind the "slip" argument for ghug. I don't necessarily have a problem with either of these things on their own, and it's fairly unfortunate for him if he's mafia that he locked himself into voting out Brian based upon prior townreads of emc, although he reinforced those townreads in doing so.

Now that I've had a bit of a reread and rethink...
- celaph seems pretty likely mafia. It's hard to make sense of why mafia failed to consolidate on Bona if not for the fact that celaph got stranded off-wagon. If that's so, then I think the other one was already locked into their vote by EOD, which points to Fluminator or bozo.
- It seems to me that bozo could only be mafia with emc, given how Day 4 went. Day 4 was actually pretty competitive between emc and Brian despite the final votes, and bozo found reasons to re-up his townread on emc and vote Brian when, if he were mafia, he didn't need to do so. However, bozo doesn't need to be mafia if emc is mafia; it does make EOD2 look pretty bad though.
- If emc is mafia and bozo isn't, then Fluminator or celaph make the most sense for the partner.
- If celaph is town and it's not bozo or emc, then it's probably just Fluminator and Donny. But I think Donny is town based on behavior.

It's also worth pointing out that celaph and Fluminator both ended the day on emc, not Brian. They were also the literal bottom two posters. Interestingly, celaph renewed the previous assessment that HB was more likely a Goon than Cop or other town, but still found reason to vote emc at the end, allegedly by sheeping Chaqa and Jamie. Flum's stated reasons for both votes seemed... what's that word? Performative? talking a lot about how both are mafia, but emc flipping means he needn't tryhard as much later, which I'm not really allowed to criticize without being a massive hypocrite but which does make for an underwhelming day when one flips mafia and the other hasn't yet.

Based on all this, I now think the two best pairs are bozo + emc or Fluminator + celaph, and that the evidence best points to Fluminator + celaph. It sucks for celaph that simply not being around for EOD looks this bad, but I struggle to understand why mafia wouldn't consolidate on Bona and come back with a better plan for Day 3 unless they had someone stuck AFK. 3 mafia being on Bona, a 4th trying to force a tie, and a 5th being stuck off-wagon makes a lot of sense to me.

Can I just say? Look at PE doing this nice pro-town behavior and actually posting arguments against people unlike the people on my wagon yesterday. If he's scum he kinda deserves me sitting in his pocket for doing all this pro-town work.

Overall, not particularly happy with how I've played so this push is rather understandable. I strongly encourage mafia to kill me tonight as everyone seems to agree that I'm basically conf town . In the unlikely event that I don't die tonight, I'll defend myself tomorrow tonight irl after classes.

[worcej]

And just to be clear, yes I do think that saying "I am only willing to vote for the following today", naming a list that doesn't include EMC, represents a declaration that you will not vote EMC at that point. Yes?

This is a fair interpretation imo.

[celaph]

Celaph looks like a good vote tomorrow.

He was a good vote yesterday.

Yet PE today is the first to put together a coherent theory.

[celaph]

Speaking of EMC and Celaph, do you notice that both of them have gone missing?

I have. This is to see if there a disparity in posting quantity between day and night for emc celaph and flum. I know the bot may have posts in the wrong day or night or be mistimed but this should be accurate enough barometer.
D1 95 emc 27 celaph durga 113
n1 24 emc 6 celaph durga 28

d2 64 emc 22 celaph flum 55 Durga 45
n2 13 emc 12 celaph flum 11

d3 12 emc 2 celaph flum 11
n3 7 emc 2 celaph flum 13

d4 55 emc 22 celaph flum 23
n4 10 emc 13 celaph flum 9

d5 37 emc 33 celaph flum 27
n5 so far 0 emc 0 celaph flum 7

To be fair to myself, I think my night postings last game tended to be much lower than my day postings. From M62: non-poster N1, 1 post N2, 11 posts N3, 7 posts N4, 10 posts N5, non-poster N6, and 11 posts N7. I just put less time into night postings as a whole.

[Donny Dude]

Who do you believe is scum celaph?

[worcej]

Speaking of EMC and Celaph, do you notice that both of them have gone missing?

Celaph isn't really, but EMC for sure is.

[worcej]

Celaph looks like a good vote tomorrow.

He was a good vote yesterday.

Yet PE today is the first to put together a coherent theory.

Eh, Damo isn't a case litigator like some of the other players.

[celaph]

Who do you believe is scum celaph?

This is the core of my problem. If I had a good answer, I wouldn't have sheeped HR the way I did. My reads haven't changed substantially from my reads list yesterday.

I'd be tempted to kill along the line:
EMC
Flum
Chaqa
Bozo
Donny
Damo

[Jamiet99uk]

Speaking of EMC and Celaph, do you notice that both of them have gone missing?

Celaph isn't really, but EMC for sure is.

Not now Celaph isn't, but when I made that comment, Celaph had not posted at all in the night phase.