MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Donny Dude]

Anyone else scumread donny for his D4 voting?

Why don't you make your case instead of asking if others agree?

[Donny Dude]

And @Eden, I'd love to see you try to argue that your move to Bona in the last minute now doesn't look bad.

Please put that string of thoughts together for us.

I was wrong about ghug. This is well established fact. I sussed him for good reasons and then let him off the hook way too easily when, in hindsight, he was still not really looking for suspects.

Any vote not for ghug that day was bad, no matter when or where it was placed.

But the fact that I didn't try to consolidate on Bona until the last minute, and pressed so hard onto the Godfather that he felt he needed to hardclaim Cop (which got himself killed), should look relatively good for me - the clear mafia play was to consolidate onto Bona and whip votes those way, not desperately look for a third option. My actions are entirely consistent with town who was wrong about ghug and not at all consistent with mafia who knows the day will end up MvT.

Eden, you are aware of the fact that you came after two known scum hopped onto bona.

[aarodactyl]

Anyone else scumread donny for his D4 voting?

Just for my d4 voting?

You went emc->HB->emc->HB. Pretty weird if you ask me

[Donny Dude]

Anyone else scumread donny for his D4 voting?

Just for my d4 voting?

You went emc->HB->emc->HB. Pretty weird if you ask me

K, that is true.

[aarodactyl]

Just for my d4 voting?

You went emc->HB->emc->HB. Pretty weird if you ask me

K, that is true.

Also a lot of talking between you and ghug D2 seemed a bit weird.

[Donny Dude]

You went emc->HB->emc->HB. Pretty weird if you ask me

K, that is true.

Also a lot of talking between you and ghug D2 seemed a bit weird.

How so?

[aarodactyl]

K, that is true.

Also a lot of talking between you and ghug D2 seemed a bit weird.

How so?

I made a note back then if ghug flipped then you were sus. No idea why I wrote that.

Also what’s your opinion on bozo?

[President Eden]

I forgot Donny Dude was off wagon, damn. I want to give him a pass for looking more invested than all the other names.

Let me take it from the top:

1. Chaqa is likely right that no ghug voters are mafia given the close split...
a) worcej and Jamie committed early, often, and strongly. Strange thing to do if they're partners with ghug, given he was Roleblocker.
b) Chaqa sussed ghug for most of days 1 and 2 and moved to ghug after it became clear that the wagons were going to be ghug and Bona. aaro wasn't sussing ghug as hard as Chaqa, but sussed him much harder than Bona ("two tiers," per the vote post), and moved in the same timeframe.
c) damo hopped on at the last minute after chaos ensued. Unlike the others, damo did actually leave the option open to go for either wagon late, but that actually works in favor of him here because of how chaotic the end of the day was. I guess I was grilling him during it, and maybe he felt like he couldn't afford to be on Bona at the end. I think he's fine though.

2. There are three off-wagons that need examination:
a) Donny Dude was around for end of day and voted bozo. Donny avoided voting for Bona specifically because he didn't like the voters, which is turning out to be prescient (and it should be noted that his vote is on one of said voters - it makes sense that if he susses bozo, he wouldn't vote for the same person that bozo voted). I am trying to leave out behavioral analysis for this so I won't go into that here.
b) celaph wasn't around for EOD and let us know in advance. At the time, emc was a decent minor wagon. celaph had a couple questions for Bona but didn't mention Bona as a suspect or townread really. celaph had some nuanced ideas about ghug that impressed me at the time, but look a lot worse now that we know ghug was mafia. The mafia failing to consolidate on Bona is the big puzzle right now, and celaph being AFK provides one possible answer.
c) emc was also around for EOD and also parked on an off-wagon (Jamie). This off-wagon was like the next level of OMGUS - sussing someone for not sussing you. The interesting thing to me is that emc had a ready-made excuse to vote Bona here - namely that Jamie, emc's top suspect, was pushing ghug hard, and Bona was the main counterwagon - and emc just didn't take it. That's probably a good sign.

celaph looks the worst of those, since being AFK would be a factor in why the mafia failed to get on the same page. I forget who said it (worcej?) but Brian probably made a "hero play" moving to brainbomb to force a tie, and could only have done that if everyone else were locked in. Mafia being AFK contributes to that.

3. Finally, there's the Bona voters themselves.
a) I've covered myself already, obviously I know I am town, but I think the evidence strongly favors me being town even though I voted wrong.
b) Hellenic Riot I suppose you could shade for pushing the counterwagon to ghug, and for calling into question the ghug wagon. However, his reason for questioning the ghug wagon was sound - the "slip" idea was logically flawed even if it got the right result - and HR has been consistent in pushing Bona since then, and pushed the vote onto Hamilton Brian the hardest. I'm not inclined to look here.
c) Fluminator outright stated he was sheeping HR onto Bona. Slightly funny note that the only mention of Bona in his Day 2 outside of his vote is questioning why Bunny wanted to reread Hamilton Brian instead of Bona... that said, it's clear Fluminator was referencing the size of the wagons, and I don't attribute any specific intent to that, it's just funny in hindsight. Regardless, Fluminator was generally giving ghug a pass for day 2.
It's hard to read too much into Fluminator beyond the fact that he was on the wrong wagon and not doing much of his own homework in the process, since he replaced halfway through the day.
d) bozotheclown voted Bona at a point when the three options were ghug, Bona, and emc. He did so because he townread emc for EOD1 voting pattern, and because he didn't like the logic behind the "slip" argument for ghug. I don't necessarily have a problem with either of these things on their own, and it's fairly unfortunate for him if he's mafia that he locked himself into voting out Brian based upon prior townreads of emc, although he reinforced those townreads in doing so.

Now that I've had a bit of a reread and rethink...
- celaph seems pretty likely mafia. It's hard to make sense of why mafia failed to consolidate on Bona if not for the fact that celaph got stranded off-wagon. If that's so, then I think the other one was already locked into their vote by EOD, which points to Fluminator or bozo.
- It seems to me that bozo could only be mafia with emc, given how Day 4 went. Day 4 was actually pretty competitive between emc and Brian despite the final votes, and bozo found reasons to re-up his townread on emc and vote Brian when, if he were mafia, he didn't need to do so. However, bozo doesn't need to be mafia if emc is mafia; it does make EOD2 look pretty bad though.
- If emc is mafia and bozo isn't, then Fluminator or celaph make the most sense for the partner.
- If celaph is town and it's not bozo or emc, then it's probably just Fluminator and Donny. But I think Donny is town based on behavior.

It's also worth pointing out that celaph and Fluminator both ended the day on emc, not Brian. They were also the literal bottom two posters. Interestingly, celaph renewed the previous assessment that HB was more likely a Goon than Cop or other town, but still found reason to vote emc at the end, allegedly by sheeping Chaqa and Jamie. Flum's stated reasons for both votes seemed... what's that word? Performative? talking a lot about how both are mafia, but emc flipping means he needn't tryhard as much later, which I'm not really allowed to criticize without being a massive hypocrite but which does make for an underwhelming day when one flips mafia and the other hasn't yet.

Based on all this, I now think the two best pairs are bozo + emc or Fluminator + celaph, and that the evidence best points to Fluminator + celaph. It sucks for celaph that simply not being around for EOD looks this bad, but I struggle to understand why mafia wouldn't consolidate on Bona and come back with a better plan for Day 3 unless they had someone stuck AFK. 3 mafia being on Bona, a 4th trying to force a tie, and a 5th being stuck off-wagon makes a lot of sense to me.

[Hellenic Riot]

I really don't understand why people think that the *entire scum team* would vote to save ghug there. Sure the RB is useful but it ain't *that* useful, and the credit garnered from bussing is pretty solid. The idea that no scum whatsoever would risk voting a teammate on D2 is just... Weird. When has that ever happened on this site?

[Donny Dude]

Also a lot of talking between you and ghug D2 seemed a bit weird.

How so?

I made a note back then if ghug flipped then you were sus. No idea why I wrote that.

Also what’s your opinion on bozo?

Scum based off what I said earlier this phase, though eden's post just above brings up some good points and I did tunnel him earlier in the game so prob not the best to ask for a good perspective.

[aarodactyl]

How so?

I made a note back then if ghug flipped then you were sus. No idea why I wrote that.

Also what’s your opinion on bozo?

Scum based off what I said earlier this phase, though eden's post just above brings up some good points and I did tunnel him earlier in the game so prob not the best to ask for a good perspective.

Why not vote for him last round then? We almost had a competitive wagon. If you swapped and bona swapped, he would have been killed.

[Donny Dude]

I made a note back then if ghug flipped then you were sus. No idea why I wrote that.

Also what’s your opinion on bozo?

Scum based off what I said earlier this phase, though eden's post just above brings up some good points and I did tunnel him earlier in the game so prob not the best to ask for a good perspective.

Why not vote for him last round then? We almost had a competitive wagon. If you swapped and bona swapped, he would have been killed.

It was bona's second self vote that made me move to him, and if he had not done that I would have stayed on. So, yes, I now wish I had.

[President Eden]

I really don't understand why people think that the *entire scum team* would vote to save ghug there. Sure the RB is useful but it ain't *that* useful, and the credit garnered from bussing is pretty solid. The idea that no scum whatsoever would risk voting a teammate on D2 is just... Weird. When has that ever happened on this site?

My current thinking is that:

- One voter got stuck off wagon (celaph or emc)
- One voter committed relatively early to Bona and couldn't easily move (Fluminator or bozo)
- Brian made his Hail Mary play onto a different wagon to try to tie the vote
- ghug can't bus himself obviously
- brainbomb probably figured that given ghug's distancing attempt, given that he was the Godfather, and given that he has a reputation for wild plays, he could get away with his Cop fakeclaim AND try to save ghug, and that he didn't need the town credit and/or could get away with the suspicion that would come from saving ghug

I don't think they actively tried to save ghug as a team so much as a couple of earlier pieces fell into place in a way that made a save attempt possible. I agree they wouldn't have explicitly coordinated a save on ghug, and in fact I think they might be more likely to set up a good looking bus if they could have coordinated explicitly in real time.

I'll also say that it's certainly possible a ghug voter bused, my point is mostly that all the ghug voters look town to me as a whole so I'd rather not start there.

[Hellenic Riot]

I really don't understand why people think that the *entire scum team* would vote to save ghug there. Sure the RB is useful but it ain't *that* useful, and the credit garnered from bussing is pretty solid. The idea that no scum whatsoever would risk voting a teammate on D2 is just... Weird. When has that ever happened on this site?

My current thinking is that:

- One voter got stuck off wagon (celaph or emc)
- One voter committed relatively early to Bona and couldn't easily move (Fluminator or bozo)
- Brian made his Hail Mary play onto a different wagon to try to tie the vote
- ghug can't bus himself obviously
- brainbomb probably figured that given ghug's distancing attempt, given that he was the Godfather, and given that he has a reputation for wild plays, he could get away with his Cop fakeclaim AND try to save ghug, and that he didn't need the town credit and/or could get away with the suspicion that would come from saving ghug

I don't think they actively tried to save ghug as a team so much as a couple of earlier pieces fell into place in a way that made a save attempt possible. I agree they wouldn't have explicitly coordinated a save on ghug, and in fact I think they might be more likely to set up a good looking bus if they could have coordinated explicitly in real time.

I'll also say that it's certainly possible a ghug voter bused, my point is mostly that all the ghug voters look town to me as a whole so I'd rather not start there.

Yes, but that's circular logic if you townread them for bussing ghug so therefore you're not looking going to look at people who bussed ghug

[Hellenic Riot]

Also, you don't need co-ordination for an individual scum team member to bus. In fact, a co-ordinated bus is usually much more transparent because it's scum theatre and rehearsed reactions rarely look as genuine as actual ones. Just casually townreading everyone for voting ghug is exactly the same shite Chaqa did for people who voted teacon D1 last game.

If you have reasons for townreading ghug-voters *OTHER THAN FOR VOTING GHUG*, great. But automatically ruling a bus out is just plain stupid.

[Chaqa]

All I’m saying is we wasted a day kill and I am sus of everyone who went along with it.

[Donny Dude]

All I’m saying is we wasted a day kill and I am sus of everyone who went along with it.

That is understandable,
What do you make of worcej eden hr discussion on d2?
What do you make of the cws to bona?

[bozotheclown]

@Cop

Same strategy as before. If you have 2+ living scans or you think you're going to die, best to claim at EoN. If you somehow have less than 2, probably don't.

Hr, who are the scum for you now?
I think bozo is scum because his push on bona just seemed only to vote there while claiming people had non-existent tr of bona seems scummy.

I explained why I thought Bonatogether was a good scum suspect at the beginning of D5, and I was voting for him before he became a large wagon. Then, players like Fluminator, Chaqa, and damo started insisting he was town without giving a reason why, and Bonatogether's wagon started to dissipate, I believed because others thought what I did, that the cop was indicating that they had an innocent scan on Bonatogether. I then voted for Bonatogether again near EOD when he was still the lead wagon and the cop had not stepped in to prevent his DK.

Can you explain to me what specifically about this you find suspicious?

[President Eden]

I really don't understand why people think that the *entire scum team* would vote to save ghug there. Sure the RB is useful but it ain't *that* useful, and the credit garnered from bussing is pretty solid. The idea that no scum whatsoever would risk voting a teammate on D2 is just... Weird. When has that ever happened on this site?

My current thinking is that:

- One voter got stuck off wagon (celaph or emc)
- One voter committed relatively early to Bona and couldn't easily move (Fluminator or bozo)
- Brian made his Hail Mary play onto a different wagon to try to tie the vote
- ghug can't bus himself obviously
- brainbomb probably figured that given ghug's distancing attempt, given that he was the Godfather, and given that he has a reputation for wild plays, he could get away with his Cop fakeclaim AND try to save ghug, and that he didn't need the town credit and/or could get away with the suspicion that would come from saving ghug

I don't think they actively tried to save ghug as a team so much as a couple of earlier pieces fell into place in a way that made a save attempt possible. I agree they wouldn't have explicitly coordinated a save on ghug, and in fact I think they might be more likely to set up a good looking bus if they could have coordinated explicitly in real time.

I'll also say that it's certainly possible a ghug voter bused, my point is mostly that all the ghug voters look town to me as a whole so I'd rather not start there.

Yes, but that's circular logic if you townread them for bussing ghug so therefore you're not looking going to look at people who bussed ghug

It's more involved than that and I think I made that pretty clear.

[bozotheclown]

I really don't understand why people think that the *entire scum team* would vote to save ghug there. Sure the RB is useful but it ain't *that* useful, and the credit garnered from bussing is pretty solid. The idea that no scum whatsoever would risk voting a teammate on D2 is just... Weird. When has that ever happened on this site?

My current thinking is that:

- One voter got stuck off wagon (celaph or emc)
- One voter committed relatively early to Bona and couldn't easily move (Fluminator or bozo)
- Brian made his Hail Mary play onto a different wagon to try to tie the vote
- ghug can't bus himself obviously
- brainbomb probably figured that given ghug's distancing attempt, given that he was the Godfather, and given that he has a reputation for wild plays, he could get away with his Cop fakeclaim AND try to save ghug, and that he didn't need the town credit and/or could get away with the suspicion that would come from saving ghug

I don't think they actively tried to save ghug as a team so much as a couple of earlier pieces fell into place in a way that made a save attempt possible. I agree they wouldn't have explicitly coordinated a save on ghug, and in fact I think they might be more likely to set up a good looking bus if they could have coordinated explicitly in real time.

I'll also say that it's certainly possible a ghug voter bused, my point is mostly that all the ghug voters look town to me as a whole so I'd rather not start there.

On D2, I voted for Bonatogether 20 minutes before EOD because I thought he had the best chance of being scum of the top wagons.