MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Hellenic Riot]

@Cop

Same strategy as before. If you have 2+ living scans or you think you're going to die, best to claim at EoN. If you somehow have less than 2, probably don't.

Hr, who are the scum for you now?
I think bozo is scum because his push on bona just seemed only to vote there while claiming people had non-existent tr of bona seems scummy.

I prefer to analyse with a fresh mind after a setback, so I shall begin considerations tomorrow

[Donny Dude]

@Cop

Same strategy as before. If you have 2+ living scans or you think you're going to die, best to claim at EoN. If you somehow have less than 2, probably don't.

Hr, who are the scum for you now?
I think bozo is scum because his push on bona just seemed only to vote there while claiming people had non-existent tr of bona seems scummy.

I prefer to analyse with a fresh mind after a setback, so I shall begin considerations tomorrow

So nothing until tomorrow, got it. Don't like it.

[worcej]

Worcej, what conclusions do you make from Bona's flip?

First - HB is unfortunately not good under pressure. His move off ghug @ EOD2 was bad and he got caught for it. I believe he felt forced to have to do this right at EOD, but I'll get to that below.

2nd - scum were probably hoping they would consolidate onto Bona to drive that as the counter wagon to ghug - you see this with the several times BB and ghug hop back onto this wagon. This makes late movement by Eden look suspicious, since that could've been one of the last scum consolidating off another scum partner (brain) but still kthe move had ghug in trouble (thus the bail off by HB to tie as a last resort).

Third - There are good odds that other scum were in the off-wagon voters that never moved, most likely causing HB's panic move. This puts focus on Celaph, EMC, and Donny. Of that group, Donny's last post was 17 minutes from EOD, EMC was around @ EOD, and Celpah was 3:20 away.

Fourth - Most of the ghug voters still remaining on D2 could've easily hoped to Bona, however the one that sticks out is Jamie. He went full-tilt tunnel on ghug and retracting and moving would've been weird. I am inclined to believe everyone on ghug was most likely town since those voters were all relatively active at the time, but that's just my take.

TL;DR -

1. HB bailed off ghug as a panic most likely, meaning that at least one scumbro was not moving and he tried to be the hero.
2. Eden looks bad for his late move to Bona - this could've been a scum attempt to make it easier to save ghug, but still needed HB to bail off.
3. I believe another scum is inside the off-wagons and there was hope that these players would move - these players being Celaph, EMC, and Donny.

[worcej]

So, from my analysis, I would like to sort out Eden currently on D6. He was a last second move to Bona from brain and the rest of the late moves are now known for right at EOD.

The next interesting move is damo's from brain to ghug when there was one minute left, but this would be ballsy because he didn't have to make this bus move and could've played it safe, so I really town him for it currently.

I leave it up to the cop at this point also - they have some information most likely to help sort this faster, then I look forward to it whenever they choose to deliver whatever they have.

[Donny Dude]

Worcej, what conclusions do you make from Bona's flip?

First - HB is unfortunately not good under pressure. His move off ghug @ EOD2 was bad and he got caught for it. I believe he felt forced to have to do this right at EOD, but I'll get to that below.

2nd - scum were probably hoping they would consolidate onto Bona to drive that as the counter wagon to ghug - you see this with the several times BB and ghug hop back onto this wagon. This makes late movement by Eden look suspicious, since that could've been one of the last scum consolidating off another scum partner (brain) but still kthe move had ghug in trouble (thus the bail off by HB to tie as a last resort).

Third - There are good odds that other scum were in the off-wagon voters that never moved, most likely causing HB's panic move. This puts focus on Celaph, EMC, and Donny. Of that group, Donny's last post was 17 minutes from EOD, EMC was around @ EOD, and Celpah was 3:20 away.

Fourth - Most of the ghug voters still remaining on D2 could've easily hoped to Bona, however the one that sticks out is Jamie. He went full-tilt tunnel on ghug and retracting and moving would've been weird. I am inclined to believe everyone on ghug was most likely town since those voters were all relatively active at the time, but that's just my take.

TL;DR -

1. HB bailed off ghug as a panic most likely, meaning that at least one scumbro was not moving and he tried to be the hero.
2. Eden looks bad for his late move to Bona - this could've been a scum attempt to make it easier to save ghug, but still needed HB to bail off.
3. I believe another scum is inside the off-wagons and there was hope that these players would move - these players being Celaph, EMC, and Donny.

If you were to pick someone off-wagon and say scum who would it be?

[Hellenic Riot]

Hr, who are the scum for you now?
I think bozo is scum because his push on bona just seemed only to vote there while claiming people had non-existent tr of bona seems scummy.

I prefer to analyse with a fresh mind after a setback, so I shall begin considerations tomorrow

So nothing until tomorrow, got it. Don't like it.

That's tomorrow realtime, not tomorrow gametime. I don't particularly care if you like it though

[Donny Dude]

I prefer to analyse with a fresh mind after a setback, so I shall begin considerations tomorrow

So nothing until tomorrow, got it. Don't like it.

That's tomorrow realtime, not tomorrow gametime. I don't particularly care if you like it though

I know.

[President Eden]

worcej you're missing the fact that I could have consolidated on Bona all along instead of trying to yeetwagon the fucking Godfather and causing enough chaos that mafia COULDN'T figure out how to consolidate.

The main reason I'd have been mafia is if Bona was mafia:
1. Me causing chaos allows mafia to shuffle the deck and avoid having three of their own on the block; and
2. I've been fighting this Bona kill all day today when I would badly need to fight it if he were my partner.

That plus the fact that I'd have known Bunny wasn't the Cop if I were mafia plus the fact that I invested an insane amount of energy and effort into today when town was lazily going to kill town SHOULD make me town. Apparently if I say "obvious town" or "clear" everyone thinks I'm putting on airs but it really should be that level of certainty, I'll settle for not being randomly sussed for no reason.

I think brainbomb claimed Cop to send a signal to consolidate on Bona, figuring that he was the Godfather (so could get checked innocent) and that people would give him some leeway to be weird. They got some terrible breaks with us interpreting Brian's vote the way we did + us refusing to let brainbomb walk back the claim.

[worcej]

Worcej, what conclusions do you make from Bona's flip?

First - HB is unfortunately not good under pressure. His move off ghug @ EOD2 was bad and he got caught for it. I believe he felt forced to have to do this right at EOD, but I'll get to that below.

2nd - scum were probably hoping they would consolidate onto Bona to drive that as the counter wagon to ghug - you see this with the several times BB and ghug hop back onto this wagon. This makes late movement by Eden look suspicious, since that could've been one of the last scum consolidating off another scum partner (brain) but still kthe move had ghug in trouble (thus the bail off by HB to tie as a last resort).

Third - There are good odds that other scum were in the off-wagon voters that never moved, most likely causing HB's panic move. This puts focus on Celaph, EMC, and Donny. Of that group, Donny's last post was 17 minutes from EOD, EMC was around @ EOD, and Celpah was 3:20 away.

Fourth - Most of the ghug voters still remaining on D2 could've easily hoped to Bona, however the one that sticks out is Jamie. He went full-tilt tunnel on ghug and retracting and moving would've been weird. I am inclined to believe everyone on ghug was most likely town since those voters were all relatively active at the time, but that's just my take.

TL;DR -

1. HB bailed off ghug as a panic most likely, meaning that at least one scumbro was not moving and he tried to be the hero.
2. Eden looks bad for his late move to Bona - this could've been a scum attempt to make it easier to save ghug, but still needed HB to bail off.
3. I believe another scum is inside the off-wagons and there was hope that these players would move - these players being Celaph, EMC, and Donny.

If you were to pick someone off-wagon and say scum who would it be?

Emc, you, celaph in order of scumiest to least.

[President Eden]

I think it's Fluminator or bozotheclown + emc or celaph. Fluminator and emc seem more likely respectively.

[worcej]

worcej you're missing the fact that I could have consolidated on Bona all along instead of trying to yeetwagon the fucking Godfather and causing enough chaos that mafia COULDN'T figure out how to consolidate.

Yet you never voted Bona until the last minute of the phase.

The main reason I'd have been mafia is if Bona was mafia:
1. Me causing chaos allows mafia to shuffle the deck and avoid having three of their own on the block; and
2. I've been fighting this Bona kill all day today when I would badly need to fight it if he were my partner.

Eh, you are a good spinner, so I am not shocked to see you trying to spin this right now.

That plus the fact that I'd have known Bunny wasn't the Cop if I were mafia plus the fact that I invested an insane amount of energy and effort into today when town was lazily going to kill town SHOULD make me town. Apparently if I say "obvious town" or "clear" everyone thinks I'm putting on airs but it really should be that level of certainty, I'll settle for not being randomly sussed for no reason.

Again, cashing in possible credit you need to go all the way. You also don't really know - Bunny could've been saying that to throw you off the scent and you WIFOM'ed onto him with your partner.

Also, he could be the doctor, who is also someone that needs to be sorted out because if the doctor does land a save, that's a shitty situation for scum too at this point.

I think brainbomb claimed Cop to send a signal to consolidate on Bona, figuring that he was the Godfather (so could get checked innocent) and that people would give him some leeway to be weird. They got some terrible breaks with us interpreting Brian's vote the way we did + us refusing to let brainbomb walk back the claim.

Agreed with this, but it doesn't mean you're confirmed town.

[President Eden]

Unfortunately, Bona giving up made for easy cover for the mafia to be on his wagon.

I don't blame him for coming to the realization that he did, it's just unfortunate.

[worcej]

And @Eden, I'd love to see you try to argue that your move to Bona in the last minute now doesn't look bad.

Please put that string of thoughts together for us.

[Donny Dude]

Where did emc go because his last post said he would be back but he never was.

[worcej]

Unfortunately, Bona giving up made for easy cover for the mafia to be on his wagon.

I don't blame him for coming to the realization that he did, it's just unfortunate.

Well he has only himself to really blame. He was the best option for information flipping to get some clarity.

Everyone else is just vibes and opinions, we got cold hard facts with his flip.

[aarodactyl]

What do you think about the emc voters when hb was eliminated?

[worcej]

What do you think about the emc voters when hb was eliminated?

I will need to review that day closer, but there is good VCA in there because for much of the day it was actually closer than the final vote count ended up.

[President Eden]

And @Eden, I'd love to see you try to argue that your move to Bona in the last minute now doesn't look bad.

Please put that string of thoughts together for us.

I was wrong about ghug. This is well established fact. I sussed him for good reasons and then let him off the hook way too easily when, in hindsight, he was still not really looking for suspects.

Any vote not for ghug that day was bad, no matter when or where it was placed.

But the fact that I didn't try to consolidate on Bona until the last minute, and pressed so hard onto the Godfather that he felt he needed to hardclaim Cop (which got himself killed), should look relatively good for me - the clear mafia play was to consolidate onto Bona and whip votes those way, not desperately look for a third option. My actions are entirely consistent with town who was wrong about ghug and not at all consistent with mafia who knows the day will end up MvT.

[aarodactyl]

Anyone else scumread donny for his D4 voting?

[Donny Dude]

Anyone else scumread donny for his D4 voting?

Just for my d4 voting?