M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[Vecna]

So this is the real question. Chaqa being fine with both wagons, scumreading both. Was there. Knew damo's vote would tie it. Yet did not change from Xorxes to damo to untie it.

bozo and Foodcoats were also there and also couldve easily intied it in their last minute comments.

Why did none of you?

damo tied the vote with under a minute left in the day.

Hmm I couldve sworn it was longer, but checking actually confirms this.

Still, it was anticipated and the posts that two people did afterwards actually shows that they knew it got tied, but they made no effort to change that

[damo666]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

2: Why would scum prefer a lynch over a tie?
3: Why is scum EMC more likely to vote than town EMC to avoid replacement/modkill?

2. I would. Simple numbers game.
3. twon emc more likely to be reticent with his vote. Remember scum have day chat. They would have coordinated their voting, no?

[damo666]

Assuming

1 worcej is town due to claim
2 Neph is town else he would have caused lynch
3 Vecna is town because scumemc would have made an effort to vote

then

if Xorxes is town with me scum were presumably all on one wagon giving only 2 possible scum teams, namely

food Bozo Chaqa OR kgray Tom summit

If Xorxes is scum his team mates must be 2 from kgray Tom and summit.

Therefore logically I must ##vote Xorxes

Assuming I am correct then whichever way he flips we are only one mislynch away from victory.

Hopefully game is solved.

@Xorxes sorry if you're town but if you are you will be happy with my logic.

2: Why would scum prefer a lynch over a tie?
3: Why is scum EMC more likely to vote than town EMC to avoid replacement/modkill?

2. From a simple numbers game pov.
3. Scum have daychat

[Chaqa]

I do not agree on the logic about emc/Vecna. If emc was scum and knew he needed to be replaced, and Jamie had confirmed to him he would be replaced and not modkilled, it was tactically sound for emc not to gimp his replacement by leaving an unjustified trail. That would be good scum play.

No, that would be a break of the rules, at least in spirit. I don't think emc would do that. I'm pretty sure emc missed the deadline by accident or because he had some emergency, but not as a tactical ploy. This says nothing about his/Vecna's alignment though.

Pretty sure he simply forgot, considering he wasn't responding to discord DMs about M56 planning either.

[Vecna]

@worcej, if I am right about xorxes, this suggests they may have used an RB last night instead of double cop. You should shoot again today, in case.

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

Cool.

2 PR claims

[foodcoats]

Last game, I sheeped Chaqa onto dargo with my first vote because I thought that what he said about dargo was not completely unreasonable. It was a first vote basically to see what happened. We both moved somewhere else eventually, even though it would have been correct to stay there.

This game, I thought why not do the same thing? Maybe Chaqa's first instinct is correct again? Again, my vote for Neph did not have a lot of conviction, but why not?

Didn't we end this battle yesterday on you saying that you did not believe Chaqa has good town reads? That you voted because you elsewise thought Neph was scummy, even though you never stated why, and Chaqa's scumdar was basically gravy?

Now you are back to saying that Chaqa is the main reason you voted Neph yesterday?

My whole point is that under scrutiny you have not been consistent in the way you've portrayed your original Nephthys vote. It's not about the vote as it stands alone.

And, I'm much more aggressive now because I started reading strategy articles during the end game of M55 and it got me all riled up. That's why I saw something fishy and questioned it and went whole hog fast, and you started making a bunch of contradictions as scum do. And continue to.

[damo666]

Apologies for the quasi double post, didn't think the first one had gone through.

[Vecna]

If he was roleblocked, he does not get another shot. Maybe read the setup?

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

So, possibilities for what happened last night (for you and worc):
1. EMC is tough guy
2. Summit is tough guy
3. EMC was commuted (seems unlikely)
4. Summit was commuted
5. Food was roleblocked
6. Worcej was roleblocked

I don't think I missed anything.. but doesn't this mean we should throw EMC/Vecna and Summit into the lynch pool today?

If Xorxes is scum, roleblocking food seems likely

I think summit being tough guy is also quite possible

[Vecna]

.

xorx-Tom-Summit or maybe xorx-Summit-Neph scumteams?

corrected for correctness

Damo aint scum here. Unless he did a radical radical change to his scumgame after our last game, but I dont think im buying that

[Chaqa]

Oh, damn. Thanks xorxes.

I am the other Vigilante. I fired at summit and my shot failed.

So, possibilities for what happened last night (for you and worc):
1. EMC is tough guy
2. Summit is tough guy
3. EMC was commuted (seems unlikely)
4. Summit was commuted
5. Food was roleblocked
6. Worcej was roleblocked

I don't think I missed anything.. but doesn't this mean we should throw EMC/Vecna and Summit into the lynch pool today?

If Xorxes is scum, roleblocking food seems likely

I think summit being tough guy is also quite possible

I meant with regards to the vig claimants and why they're shots didn't work.

I left out the implicits that one of them is lying, of course.

[Vecna]

Everyone should use online status off to stop that stupid WIFOM/metagamy analysis. I've had mine off for at least 10 games now and it's pretty relaxing to not have to panic if you have time to pop in for a minute and worry someone might see you "1lurk1ing!!!!scum!"

Or just always have it on and dont give a shit. The only way it ever matters is if someone suddenly turns it off during a game and looks shady (for example, brainbomb in last game).

[worcej]

No, I don't think emc was/is the Tough Guy, I was townreading him. But you wanted to kill him, so it's weird that you are not even considering that as a possibility.

I am not saying it's impossible, it's just rather low odds. We can figure this out quickly at any point if the other Vig actually attempts a shot and if they fail or not.

If you tried to shoot emc, then you must have thought he was scum, no? So then it'd be a 1/3 chance that he's the tough guy. And you said yourself that there was very little chance that either you or emc were commuted, or that you were roleblocked. So I really don't see why you think the odds of emc being tough guy are so low.

I put value in the 'scum usually has a lurker' analysis that I did before. I then assessed the players that fit the criteria, which were summit, Neph, and EMC. Of the group, the hardest to read was EMC, so I decided that if I had a legit bullet, I'd sort him out one way or the other.

[damo666]

Assuming food and worcej are being truthful (which I do) I am pretty convinced the entire scumteam was on my wagon yesterday or a slim chance of 2 + Neph

[Vecna]

Why would scum prefer to lynch a town over a tie in case of a TvT D1?

Because thats a pretty big assumption that is most likely flawed or at best a 50/50 that underlies this big post

That's an assumption I made, yes. I think scum would prefer to lynch me D1 over a tie. They needed four mislynches, why not get one in the bag and get rid of me at the same time?

Because removing certain mislynches is always bad for scum.

Why remove the mislynch on day1 if you can get a nightkill in first and then still mislynch them before the game is over? It gives scum more nightkills and town less days remaining to lynch all 3 scum.

[worcej]

Your town game has never been obvious to me, I don't think.

And yes, it is always possible that scum are being tricky, I said that at the start of this analysis. But if everything is as it seems, that's my most likely team at the moment.

I don't really care about the fact you scum me incorrectly, it's more that you're going to perpetually doubt anything I do and assume the scum-side when you give free passes to others and proceed to town them.

Who do you think xorxes is giving free passes to?

IMO, these:

I don't believe damo was looking for an excuse to vote for me specifically. It may very well be that he just didn't know what to do as scum, and just came up with whatever arbitrary algorithm to show he was doing something, but I doubt it had anything to do with choosing me as a target.

I really want to scumread bozo for voting me, but I think it probably means he is town. He doesn't like to antagonize me when he is scum. Can't say the same for foodcoats, I don't really remember how he treats me when he is scum.

emc looking towny, I like what he is saying.

Tom defending me is always nice, so townie points for him as well.

In general, xorxes is typically someone who is susceptible to WIFOM (my opinion) however he does not second guess several people like he would with someone like myself, even after playing ~15-ish games with me.

[Vecna]

That is actually a very good point.

##VOTE xorxes

Why not resolve day1 by lynching Chaqa?

If he flips scum we can safely assume both are town

Why could Chaqa not be scum with damo?

I find it very likely that there is exactly 1 scum in (Xorxes/Chaqa)

I also know that scum Chaqa would 100% push his team to get a tie as a result.

I have a strong townread on Damo, regardless of anything else based purely on play and him applying his Poe (based on logic i dont not agree with, but logic I think comes from town damo in an overwhelming % of cases)

[Vecna]

That is actually a very good point.

##VOTE xorxes

Why not resolve day1 by lynching Chaqa?

If he flips scum we can safely assume both are town

When I flip town, do you owe me Chipotle? lmao

Were not doing that over this, and i think you know why

[xorxes]

Why would scum prefer to lynch a town over a tie in case of a TvT D1?

Because thats a pretty big assumption that is most likely flawed or at best a 50/50 that underlies this big post

That's an assumption I made, yes. I think scum would prefer to lynch me D1 over a tie. They needed four mislynches, why not get one in the bag and get rid of me at the same time?

Because removing certain mislynches is always bad for scum.

Why remove the mislynch on day1 if you can get a nightkill in first and then still mislynch them before the game is over? It gives scum more nightkills and town less days remaining to lynch all 3 scum.

Ok. I have to revise my assumptions if both worcej and food are telling the truth anyway, hard as that is to believe.

[worcej]

Obviously I vote to save myself. Worcej's comment is laughable.

Xorxes's vote on me is NAI just as mine on him is.

I agree, but it's consistent with town!worcej's weird aversion to self-preservation.

Neph not moving his vote is very odd. It only makes sense if it were SvS and I can assure that was not the case.

Or it was TvT, and he didn't think you'd be back in time to tie it and didn't want to be the deciding vote on lynching town.

JFC... It isn't weird that I think I would let myself be flipped on D1. WHAT DID WE LEARN ON D1 EVERYONE?!

We learned NOTHING! Before you argue that you've gained some 'reads', your personal reads are not concrete information that helps the rest of the town team.

[xorxes]

In general, xorxes is typically someone who is susceptible to WIFOM (my opinion) however he does not second guess several people like he would with someone like myself, even after playing ~15-ish games with me.

It is true that I have my biases, but the last time you complained that I treat you unfairly you were scum. It was in that game you were scum with damo and Jamie, and you complained that I was giving you a hard time for not paying attention to the game but I was giving others a free pass.