M81: A Night To Remember [GAME THREAD]

[ghug]

Hi. I’m at work but I wanted to post to say that if you’re town, the odds that your partner is scum is 3/11.

Also I meant to spend time thinking about claiming partners but I got distracted by the math.

3/7, but who is counting.

I'm enjoying this already...

[DemonRHK]

Well that was easy

Town
Kakarrotto

would anyone else like to join the list?

Are there club dues? Greens fees?

[brainbomb]

Well that was easy

Town
Kakarrotto

would anyone else like to join the list?

Are there club dues? Greens fees?

You have to wear a mask. and stick around for the buffet.

[aarodactyl]

ok, explain this math because it doesn't make sense to me. Why is the chance 3/11 and not 3/7? There are only 7 teams and mafia can't make new teams.

Also how do you come to the 5/22? It looks like you doubled the 3/11 and decided to subtract one from the first number?

There’s 11 town and 3 of them have scum partners. 5/22=(3-3/11)/12

explain it step by step. what does the first 3 mean. What the second 3. Why do you divide through 12.

Ok. Think of it like this, when Eden picks partners, he selects 3 townies to have scum partners out of the 11 total town. There’s a 3/11 chance you’re chosen at that phase, which is where the 3/11th comes from.

This next part will sound silly but it mathematically sound (law of total expectation). All of the 12 people that are not you or not your partner have equal probability to be scum. The expected scum outside of those 12 is 3/11. Total expected scum is 3. So there are 3-3/11 expected scum in those 12 people. So each non-partner person has a (3-3/11)/12 = 5/22 chance of being scum.

[ghug]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

I haven't thought about it too much but it seems obviously beneficial to claim them immediately, right?

My partner is aaro.

[sweetandcool]

Dear sweetandcool

Would you be willing to explain what makes you think I am lying about this?

Because if someone actually did that, it would be completely anti-town. Consequently, you would be willing to name and shame your partner, precipitating a thunderdome in which we day vote your partner, and then you, if need be. The end result being that we catch scum D1 or at least D2.

Or we'll have a prime candidate for LVP to vote for (;

[ghug]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

If you're town, you know information about your group that makes it less likely to contain scum.

[brainbomb]

Dear sweetandcool

Would you be willing to explain what makes you think I am lying about this?

Because if someone actually did that, it would be completely anti-town. Consequently, you would be willing to name and shame your partner, precipitating a thunderdome in which we day vote your partner, and then you, if need be. The end result being that we catch scum D1 or at least D2.

Or we'll have a prime candidate for LVP to vote for (;

Do you have any guesses who I would be partnered with based on this?

[ghug]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Elaborate.

[DemonRHK]

Well that was easy

Town
Kakarrotto

would anyone else like to join the list?

Are there club dues? Greens fees?

You have to wear a mask. and stick around for the buffet.

Buffet? I'm sold.

[worcej]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

Maybe this will help:

There is a 3/7 chance that a group has a scum in it but there’s a 3/11 chance a town player is in such a group because they can’t be one of the scummy halves of those 3 groups.

I don’t follow your math making. If you are town, you know you are either in one of the 3/7 pairs with a scum or one of the 4/7 that is TvT

[sweetandcool]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

I would rather not say, since it could help Mafia. Please pretend you are Mafia and reflect on why a mass claim is the worst thing town could do. Then consider that your partner may have willingly encouraging you to suggest such an anti-town idea.

[worcej]

Also I don’t hold anything against those of you that are saying 3/7 but bayes is rolling in his grave. Maybe don’t do that to him.

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

If you're town, you know information about your group that makes it less likely to contain scum.

Which is already accounted for in the 3/7

[sweetandcool]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

This is kinda a silly take. Mafia doesn't need a mass claim, except to tr yto full elimate pairs, but that itself is even late game talk for a phase in which n one id ded.

I mean, at some point a claim or two, or even a mass claim could be appropriate. And if you think that claiming is a good idea D1, then you need to strongly think about the setup.

[brainbomb]

dear sweet and cool

who do you suppose would openly scumclaim to me?

or allow me to do this as some elaborate gambit ploy?

[aarodactyl]

There are 7 dance groups.

There is a scum in each group.

If you’re town, you have 3/7 odds of being in a scum containing dance group.

QED

Maybe this will help:

There is a 3/7 chance that a group has a scum in it but there’s a 3/11 chance a town player is in such a group because they can’t be one of the scummy halves of those 3 groups.

I don’t follow your math making. If you are town, you know you are either in one of the 3/7 pairs with a scum or one of the 4/7 that is TvT

At this point, maybe just take my word for it. It also doesn’t really matter for the sake of mafia hunting. I just wanted to show that the most suspicious person mathematically is your partner.

[Kakarroto]

There’s 11 town and 3 of them have scum partners. 5/22=(3-3/11)/12

explain it step by step. what does the first 3 mean. What the second 3. Why do you divide through 12.

Ok. Think of it like this, when Eden picks partners, he selects 3 townies to have scum partners out of the 11 total town. There’s a 3/11 chance you’re chosen at that phase, which is where the 3/11th comes from.

This next part will sound silly but it mathematically sound (law of total expectation). All of the 12 people that are not you or not your partner have equal probability to be scum. The expected scum outside of those 12 is 3/11. Total expected scum is 3. So there are 3-3/11 expected scum in those 12 people. So each non-partner person has a (3-3/11)/12 = 5/22 chance of being scum.

Maybe I'm too dumb. Maybe I'm too tired. Maybe the heat here does things to my brain so I don't really get it. Thanks for the thought process, I think I now at least understand how that might be the case and where you're coming from, but I'm neither convinced nor unconvinced it's correct. I think I have to think about that much more. At least it doesn't look like a nefarious derailment, though people who focus on math should look at it, maybe they see more than me here.

[sweetandcool]

Anyway, I talked with my dance partner (further known as 'Sissi' until reveal), and we thought a bit about the pro's and con's of everyone claiming their dance partners. Maybe we didn't think of every possibility, but it looked to us that claiming head on is much more beneficial for town, than it is for mafia, right?

So in that regard, I'd like to hear from everyone here what you think, should we reveal our dance partners right here on the first day?

Btw, I think my partner is more likely town, so if I didn't misread my dear Sissi, that would be two towns leaning on revealing today.

I haven't thought about it too much but it seems obviously beneficial to claim them immediately, right?

My partner is aaro.

Bad, bad, bad.

##VOTE ghug

[aarodactyl]

Ok. This math talk was my bad. I wanted to feel smart, but apparently all it’s doing is causing spam. Let’s collectively agree I’m right and then move on.

[ghug]

This is absolutely an awful idea, and I'm hoping this isn't just Mafia fishing for dance partners.

##VOTE Kakarroto

Ok, then tell my why it's bad? Sissi suggested to make a pro/con list, on the pro side would be that mafia can't falsify any connection so mafia can't hide by connecting two of them together. We also would instantly know who is town if we flip a mafia (whereas Mafia who will most likely share/have already shared their information of their partners would know this even if we don't share the dance partner information so they can deal with the 'confirmed' town that's not been revealed anyway).

On the con side would be that we would give mafia information for their nk-decisions on the teams where there is no mafia, but they already have the information for 3 teams out of 7, so guessing who the other 4 teams are isn't too hard anyway, right?

Hit me if there's something big that we overlooked, but Mafia here has an even bigger information lead than just in normal games, so a day 1 claim would remedy that, right?

No. It makes it worse. The only info that scum doesn’t have is which town are paired up. Which is actually stupidly important. I think explaining this more is anti town though.

Maybe we should just make all the pairs with scum in them claim, then.