MAFIA 66: The Battle for Olympus - Game Thread [hidden]

[Bonatogether]

##VOTE Macca

Why Macca? One thing we knew is that at least two scum were around closer to EOD to change kill.

##vote Jamiet

Looks like you and bona were last to post before Kak got NK’d

??? That's the dumbest reason to scumread me.

[Bonatogether]

I will give my evidence when you give evidence on your reads list.

that's beside the point

Okay, neglect that point.

Bona let’s solve together.

What do you think of damo’s roleblock claim given vecna’s reads and the lack of an item claim?

If Vecna gave an item to town, they should keep it quiet, so assuming Vecna was not roleblocked, this is the expected outcome.

If Vecna gave an item to scum, either they'd have used it or be holding it to claim for towncred at lylo.

However, the meta is to roleblock nks (apparently - I've never been scum with people who know about this).

If scum has a group of people who know and follow the meta, then damo is scum.

If scum is people who either don't know or don't follow the meta, then damo is likely town.

Since I believe the scumteam to be generally more meta-avoiding people, (barring kgray convinces the others in qt) so I think damo is town.

[kgray]

My main concern about Macca is that they're an easy miskill and may be driven there by scum.

I mean, I do actually think Macca is scum? But... I can't know for sure? And I worry about the easy miskill. I'll have to go back and read Chaqa's case... guess I missed it.

What do you think of Macca overall?

I don't like the way they weere saved. I was pushing Macca then in Day 3 and he even became the top wagon for some time. If Macca is scum (which I believe), we will reveal a lot of information with their kill.

We cannot be voting for information at this point...

[damo666]

There are 2 major issues.

No Janitorship and no item.

Janitorship

N1 I was RBd by scum (probably because I was lurky/quiet ) and Jamie is proven not Janitor (assuming HB not lying and he has no reason to) which means scum held Janitor N1, presumably because of watcher.

It is not unreasonable to therefore assume they also held N2 (unless they were CERTAIN BB was watcher and rdr was RBd, but then why no use N3?)

Now, why no Janitor N3? Either Chaqa was RBd, or they were worried about bins in the hands of town (implication being scum do not have an item). I don't buy the theory of holstering every night simply to muddy the waters.

Summary

Chaqa is Janitor or small chance rdr is Janitor
and / or
town have an item

The item

Scum cannot have gun (they would be on auto win)
Scum cannot have bins or crystal unless Chaqa is Janitor

The item, especially if bins or crystal may have gone with a dead person.

The item may be with town. Hopefully a gun with a patient townie.


I was really talking to myself here. All I think I've done is state the obvious.

[damo666]

My main concern about Macca is that they're an easy miskill and may be driven there by scum.

I mean, I do actually think Macca is scum? But... I can't know for sure? And I worry about the easy miskill. I'll have to go back and read Chaqa's case... guess I missed it.

What do you think of Macca overall?

I don't like the way they weere saved. I was pushing Macca then in Day 3 and he even became the top wagon for some time. If Macca is scum (which I believe), we will reveal a lot of information with their kill.

We cannot be voting for information at this point...

Yav is trying to distance himself from scumpartner Macca as he thinks their dk inevitable.

[kgray]

<food's Bona case>

You didn't ask me, but I think the most convincing part is that he didn't just dismiss darg as the cop, he pushed that darg was scum - especially with the "doc slip." If Bona knew darg wasn't the cop then yeah, it would make sense for him to be sus of darg, but he didn't know that. Doubling down on the cop/doc thing feels a lot more like trying to get town to distrust the cop than like trying to draw a NK by hinting he's the cop himself.

[kgray]

I get this nagging feeling food is the deep threat

I've been scumreading food since forever

If food is scum this game is over. I would never push his kill, he is the one doing most effort and it doesn't look like scum effort.

Absolutely agreed. I'm doing my best to stay objective reading his posts but they're really well thought-out and I'm finding myself agreeing with most of it... I'm back and focused again, so I'll stop depending on his efforts, but I don't see how he can be scum.

[kgray]

This read are so bad I don't know even where to start. How Kgray defending Celaph is an indication both are scum?

The fact of the defending wasn't the scummy thing but how she did it was.

I still don't understand what you think was scummy about it. Do you not like that I didn't want my townread daykilled? Did you not like my reasons to townread him?

[kgray]

I must have missed it when you said that. That's not alignment-indicative for me.

What is alignment indicative for you? What are your tells that you try to avoid?

I suppose you should take this with a grain of salt, but here's the most obvious thing, to me:
m62, posts/days alive: 28.42 (vt, outlier due to being shy in my first game)
m63: posts/days alive: 58.8 (vt)
m64: posts/days alive: 126.17 (scum)
m1016: posts/days alive: 25.5 (vt)
m65: posts/days alive: 97 (pr)
m66: posts/days alive: 77.2 ( )

As vanilla town I generally post in the 50-80 messages/day range, as town PR I post in the 80-100(?) posts/day range, and as scum I generally post anywhere above that.

I will concede that this is a small sample size for scum and town PR, but the vt evidence is very indicative, imo.

How can you look at those numbers as proof that as VT you generally post 50-80 messages per day? Even if your first game is an outlier because you were shy, and M1016 was a mini game so we discount that too, the only data point for you being a VT is M63 at 58.8. And if we include those the average is much lower.

[kgray]

Is damo normally this bad? Maybe scum did claim the RB.

Yep we Roleblocked Vecna N1 and agreed that if he should flip PR I would claim RB as the weakest scumteam member to gain towncred. Funnily my teammate was roleblocked by town the same night so we had 2 scum roleblock claims.

Confused you didn't it?

I think Jamie is locktown, though.

It's entirely reasonable that Vecna was RBd and you claimed it.

Jamie is locktown because he was ready to out the werewolf?

[Chaqa]

The interesting thing about the Janitor theories is, from my perspective, I know that I am not the Janitor, which means I should have the most knowledge outside the scumteam on this, and I have no earthly idea why there hasn't been one used.

[kgray]

Why?

Because the way you are playing remembers scum Damo. I can´t identify with anything you say. Your post just seems to make sense when you talk about mechanics and this is a strong scum tell.
You arbitrary created a POE that´s me, Yav and Flum, which doesn´t make any sense (like you want to look like town Damo that makes a lot of assumptions) and you left of the hook a lot of scummy players like Bona or Macca. And then you give a pass to Flum because he is willing to vote me or Yav, which even less sense.

And last of it, OMGUS.

This is from rdr on D2.

At this point I'm very curious to know what other players think of damo.

I know damo is very math-oriented, but I am completely blown away that damo is not reading the game, just the votes.

Yeah I go back and forth on a lot of damo because I *think* the VCA and mechs talk are mostly NAI, but I think he's town because of his involvement with EODs. Especially when it was Flum vs Maniac he was very invested in avoiding a tie, picked Flum to die over Maniac, and screamed at everyone else to get on board. Scum!damo doesn't care about TvT wagons and just exudes ambivalence in those situations, so this is a huge towntell for damo imo.

[kgray]

Hardly a perfect heuristic but I think chastising town for miskilling is a scumtell.

Bona and yavu D2:

1 minute before EOD:

Worcej wagon is scum motivated

After:

This, Mr. Chaqa, is what happens when you vote for someone you townread

After:

@kgray

I don't wanna say I told you so, but worcej was town.

Yeah I mean I was always suspicious about how confident Bona was on his worcej townread.

I think the main thing I hesitate on with scum!Bona was his willingness to be on an off-wagon instead of trying to save himself D2, but I think he could just be that bold. He was pretty confident as scum before.

[kgray]

I really don't get why you're pushing on Bona so hard.

I don't really get why you townread him so strongly.

[Bonatogether]

What is alignment indicative for you? What are your tells that you try to avoid?

I suppose you should take this with a grain of salt, but here's the most obvious thing, to me:
m62, posts/days alive: 28.42 (vt, outlier due to being shy in my first game)
m63: posts/days alive: 58.8 (vt)
m64: posts/days alive: 126.17 (scum)
m1016: posts/days alive: 25.5 (vt)
m65: posts/days alive: 97 (pr)
m66: posts/days alive: 77.2 ( )

As vanilla town I generally post in the 50-80 messages/day range, as town PR I post in the 80-100(?) posts/day range, and as scum I generally post anywhere above that.

I will concede that this is a small sample size for scum and town PR, but the vt evidence is very indicative, imo.

How can you look at those numbers as proof that as VT you generally post 50-80 messages per day? Even if your first game is an outlier because you were shy, and M1016 was a mini game so we discount that too, the only data point for you being a VT is M63 at 58.8. And if we include those the average is much lower.

I have two data points

[kgray]

Damo confirmed town

This reaction makes me feel scum RBed Vecna and Yav is tryng to clear his partner Damo.

Kgray picked up on this too i believe... if we flip yavu and he is scum, worth remembering.

Something on my mind is if they RB’d N1 then why didn’t they janitor? Urk.

I thought it was weird and scummy of yav but don't think it implicates damo. I see that point, but my read of it was more "welp, I guess we towncleared this townie with our roadblock" not "cool, my teammate is practically confirmed town."

[rdrivera2005]

celaph put Demon 4-3 in the lead, an unlikely scum move

Bona put Demon 5-4 in the lead against 3 non-Mafia with 17 minutes to go, a highly unlkely scum move

Chaqa put Demon 5-3 in the lead, although an unlikely scum move Chaqa does love a bus and his protests about day 1 bussing look suspicious

Food was the first to vote Demon but was his 5th different votee of the day so does look indecisive town.

kgray more or less puts the nail in Demon's coffin with her vote putting him 6-4 in the lead against non-Mafia with 2 minutes to go. An extremely doubtful bus.

Bussing likelihood

Chaqa >> celaph > food >> Bona >>> Kgray

So we either have

No bussers => scum team is Jamie Macca rdr yav [G4]
1 busser => Chaqa + 3 of G4 or just maybe celaph + 3 of G4
2 bussers => Chaqa celaph + I would guess Macca and Yav.

This all points to tomorrow's kill target being either Macca or Yav.

I find it interesting how we can examine the same data and reach the opposite conclusion. I thought Kgray is the most likely busser by far, followed by celaph.

I tend to agree with Chaqa here. With 2 minutes to go scum won't openly risk to tie or try to save Demon. I townread Kgray for the way she made Demon to turn into a wagon and not for this vote.
Bona vote is the towniest, I keep looking and will just take my hat for Bona doing a extremely solid bus on Demon. Celaph vote with almost 3 hours to go have a lot less height.

And Damo focusing only on vote count is sus as hell.

[Chaqa]

I really don't get why you're pushing on Bona so hard.

I don't really get why you townread him so strongly.

I know Bona better than anyone else here, so I suppose that's part of it?

But matter of factly I don't think he makes the deciding vote on his teammate.

[kgray]

Alright well kgray as RDR’s ambassador will have to give me some insight here but rdr really looks town

He sorts
He is passionate
He evolves naturally
He makes mechanical as well as qualitative analysis
He comes up with theories
He makes mistakes and moves on
Etc

As Rivera's spokesperson, I will say Rivera is 100% guaranteed vanilla town.

As myself, I will say that I really do think he's town, mostly for those reasons you listed. I've never seen him as scum but his play this game is very standard town!Rivera. I think he gets frustrated at things that make sense for town to be frustrated with - like Maniac's claim, but not worcej's wagon. And he didn't want to join me on worcej even though Rivera was a viable wagon at the time. Granted, he'd been defending worcej, but not so hard it would have been weird for him to get a counter wagon going. He also didn't join me on brain when Demon was up for elim. So if he's scum, that's twice he rejected me forming a townie counterwagon to scum. I think if he were scum he'd bank harder on buddying me and would go along with my reads in those cases when they'd have benefited scum.

[kgray]

that's beside the point

Okay, neglect that point.

Bona let’s solve together.

What do you think of damo’s roleblock claim given vecna’s reads and the lack of an item claim?

If Vecna gave an item to town, they should keep it quiet, so assuming Vecna was not roleblocked, this is the expected outcome.

If Vecna gave an item to scum, either they'd have used it or be holding it to claim for towncred at lylo.

However, the meta is to roleblock nks (apparently - I've never been scum with people who know about this).

If scum has a group of people who know and follow the meta, then damo is scum.

If scum is people who either don't know or don't follow the meta, then damo is likely town.

Since I believe the scumteam to be generally more meta-avoiding people, (barring kgray convinces the others in qt) so I think damo is town.

Why are you talking about me here? Are you implying I'd push for my team to RB Vecna? What basis can you possibly have for that assumption?