MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

If I have a vote, this post right here will be why I suspect the shit out of Eden next day phase.

Why?

It comes off as hedging and is just… not necessary to say at this point.

It is very helpful, when you implicitly accuse people and criticize their writing, to actually use examples and refer to specific statements in making your point. You’ve had a bad habit of making these blanket unfalsifiable statements all game that has really tried my patience in attempting to figure out how to bridge this gap. I think my statement was actually quite firm and not at all hedging.

[worcej]

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Rumi, here's the post I was thinking of when I was talking about the self-voting. Maybe I misunderstood it, but then I can see how it's not necessarily a way of townsorting.

What I was mentioning as self-voting being anti-town was sometime during D2. Also...

You do know that worcej was conclusviely proven to have the vote0 during EoD2, right? There's an ongoing belief that he still has it and that mafia has not attempted to move it off him.

The current impression is that if worsej still has the vote0, he's town, but if he doesn't, it means he's scum and scum put it onto another townie. I think that's what Eden's going for at least?

This line of thinking in the last sentence also leads me to raise an eyebrow at Rumi

[worcej]

Why?

It comes off as hedging and is just… not necessary to say at this point.

It is very helpful, when you implicitly accuse people and criticize their writing, to actually use examples and refer to specific statements in making your point. You’ve had a bad habit of making these blanket unfalsifiable statements all game that has really tried my patience in attempting to figure out how to bridge this gap. I think my statement was actually quite firm and not at all hedging.

You’re preemptively laying a foundation for what you will do if I have a vote. It’s laying the groundwork to begin the miskill push next day phase.

[Hamilton Brian]

And technically, to my own detriment, I agree with Eden. The goal is to hunt and get rid of mafia, and let the mechanics rest until later. I say to my detriment because I am the most likely to get shunted off.

[ghug]

In which I attempt to unravel the location of the 2-vote and 0-vote tags, eliminate suspects as the Bus Driver, and generally try to galaxy brain my way to success. Recommended reading instructions are dim light, Tame Impala on in the background, and medium to high amounts of Chipotle.

Underlined information can be considered "highlighted" and may be referenced later on. Assumptions will be colored in yellow when I find it important.

Terms:
0V - the 0-vote tag
2V - the 2-vote tag

The Voting Tags
I believe the first thing we need to figure out is who an where the voting tags have been. We have exactly three pieces of concrete information:

1. On Day 1, 0V and 2V were on the same wagon. Therefore: Neon, damo, rivera, bo, and pyxxy did not start with 0V or 2V.
2. On Day 2, worcej owned 0V. He may have started with it.
3. On Day 2, 2V was on Sabi's wagon.

We know that the Driver acted upon some order of Neon and Sabi on Night 1. We also know where Dargo and Jamie's actions went and were targeted. The only unknown from Night 1 is the Doctor, so there are some asterisks in here, but I will operate under the assumption that the Doctor would not have targeted SnowByz on Night 1.

This next part is pretty cool. So, we know that Sabi claims to have started with the Deathbomb. Assuming this is true, we know that the guilty tag that Sabi died with must have been given to them on Night 1. Likewise, it came from the last person to visit Sabi, which would have been Jamie. Therefore, we know that Jamie probably started with the Guilty Tag.

On Day 2, 2V was on Sabi's wagon. Also on Day 2, we have myself and Vecna claiming non-2V tags. It is my belief that the 0V and 2V tags did not move from D1 to D2, so this narrows down to ghug and celaph as the 2-voter.

I believe mafia would have been able to deduce this on Night 2 to some degree. They would have been able to narrow it down to celaph-ghug-Vecna having the 2V. We know ghug was not affected by the driver on Night 2. If Vecna dies with the same tag he claims he had on Day 2, celaph had the 2V to start, and is probably mafia. - this is actually a very strong reason to kill Vecna today lol

If the mafia didn't figure it out on Night 2, on Night 3 they should have. Based off known information, they would deduce celaph had the tag and try to steal it. So we can analyze this a bit more after today's vote.

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

Moving on - on Day 1, I think it's incredibly more likely that 0V and 2V were on the damo wagon. Reasons being:

1. We know Jamie started with the Guilty Tag.
2. Eden and I have both claimed specific tags (granted mine could have been swapped by the Doctor on Night 1 but I doubt this). Rumi also claimed Andy Taylor on D2, but this could have been not their original tag.
3. Neither Bona nor Rumi had a 0V or 2V tag on D2 based on the vote count. In order for either of them to have started with them, both of them would have had to, but also simultaneously lose them on Night 1. The only unknowns from Night 1 are the Bus Driver and the Doctor. If the Bus Driver had one of these tags, it would either:
   1. Have gone to Sabi and then been passed to Jamie
   2. Have gone to Neon and then died with Dargo
   Neither of those things happened, based off of the Day 2 vote counts. Therefore, I think we can safely assume both 0V and 2V started amongst the Damo voters.

OK, now that we have that "proven" again, that gives us 2 interesting tags in a group of 7. We can quickly sort three of them:

• Sabi claimed D1 peek Deathbomb. I see no reason to disbelieve this.
• dargorygel's starting tag wound up on Neon on Day 2. We know Neon did not have a voting tag, so Dargo did not start with one.
• SnowByz could only have had a voting tag if the Doctor protected them on Night 1, which I find laughable.

By Day 3, we know one of two things is true:
1. Either 0V and 2V are in specifically Vecna and rivera's hands
2. Both 0V an 2V were on the snowy wagon

I believe it most likely that worcej kept the 0V tag, since no one would want it. If true, then the 2V tag on Day 3 is in the other snowy voters. We'll have more info on this after today.

The Bus Driver
Somewhat parallel to the vote tag analysis, we can attempt to deduce the identity of the Bus Driver. We know Neon and ghug are not the Bus Driver. We also know that if the 0V and 2V tags have stayed stationary, they are not in the hands of or have been moved by the driver. This is admittedly really basic but making note of it is important.

Are we talking good Tame Impala or post-Lonerism Tame Impala?

[President Eden]

It comes off as hedging and is just… not necessary to say at this point.

It is very helpful, when you implicitly accuse people and criticize their writing, to actually use examples and refer to specific statements in making your point. You’ve had a bad habit of making these blanket unfalsifiable statements all game that has really tried my patience in attempting to figure out how to bridge this gap. I think my statement was actually quite firm and not at all hedging.

You’re preemptively laying a foundation for what you will do if I have a vote. It’s laying the groundwork to begin the miskill push next day phase.

Can you fucking read? I specifically said it’s NOT damning per se and requires an investigation. I went back and clarified that MULTIPLE times after people misinterpreted what I said.

[worcej]

Eden isn’t making a hunt push there though, it was entirely speculative on mechanics

[Bonatogether]

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

> BUS DRIVER swap
> FLORIST delivery
> COP Scan
> MAFIA kill/overkill
> DOCTOR heal

could jamie have scanned the person who killed him?

[celaph]

Celaph: questions/thoughts are yours. Mine are in parentheses.

Also, there is no sense in trying to give Jamie town points for D1 voting when he’s a claimed cop. (Let me check that but I also wasn’t aware that Jamie had confirmed cop when I wrote that out) Feels like this was written with completion in mind, not trying to solve the game. (Interesting take; tell me more about this “feel.”)

After his claim, I don't think his slot needed any solving. It was very likely just cop and if he wasn't, he's scum going to get mech resolved later.

That said, this may just be me conf biasing my way to this conclusion. Feels weaker on reread.

[worcej]

It is very helpful, when you implicitly accuse people and criticize their writing, to actually use examples and refer to specific statements in making your point. You’ve had a bad habit of making these blanket unfalsifiable statements all game that has really tried my patience in attempting to figure out how to bridge this gap. I think my statement was actually quite firm and not at all hedging.

You’re preemptively laying a foundation for what you will do if I have a vote. It’s laying the groundwork to begin the miskill push next day phase.

Can you fucking read? I specifically said it’s NOT damning per se and requires an investigation. I went back and clarified that MULTIPLE times after people misinterpreted what I said.

THAT’s the foundation dingleberry.

[celaph]

In reading that page, no sooner had the mention of Celaph been made by Rivera and Eden, then Celaph comes out of the weeds and delivers wall posts asking myself and some others specific questions.

Was this a defensive reflex?

It's called a 'had time and wanted to play the game' reflex.

[Bonatogether]

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

> BUS DRIVER swap
> FLORIST delivery
> COP Scan
> MAFIA kill/overkill
> DOCTOR heal

could jamie have scanned the person who killed him?

in which case, jamie peeks, sees he has the tag, gives it to the mafia member (strongman?), who then immediately gives it back upon killing him?

[Bonatogether]

in that case, if he did in fact scan vecna (emphasis on if), vecna is guaranteed to be mafia

[ghug]

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

> BUS DRIVER swap
> FLORIST delivery
> COP Scan
> MAFIA kill/overkill
> DOCTOR heal

could jamie have scanned the person who killed him?

Interestingly, we know that whoever Jamie scanned doesn't have the Oracle unless he scanned his killer or the doctor.

[Bonatogether]

Skipping ahead a bit, I've been trying to figure out what tag Jamie peeked on Day 3. He said it confirmed ghug being town, but it wasn't the Roger Murtaugh tag he died with. As far as I can tell, he never mentioned what his tag was, and that is EXTREMELY frustrating.

> BUS DRIVER swap
> FLORIST delivery
> COP Scan
> MAFIA kill/overkill
> DOCTOR heal

could jamie have scanned the person who killed him?

Interestingly, we know that whoever Jamie scanned doesn't have the Oracle unless he scanned his killer or the doctor.

how do we know that

[President Eden]

You’re preemptively laying a foundation for what you will do if I have a vote. It’s laying the groundwork to begin the miskill push next day phase.

Can you fucking read? I specifically said it’s NOT damning per se and requires an investigation. I went back and clarified that MULTIPLE times after people misinterpreted what I said.

THAT’s the foundation dingleberry.

“WILL do,” you said, as in it is absolutely determinative that I’m going to use you having a vote (WHICH MIGHT NOT EVEN BE THE CASE AS I HAVE REPEATEDLY SAID!) to vote you off and not simply evaluate the several possibilities I’ve already identified for why you might have lost the no vote tag as town.

That’s simply not true and your continued poisoning the well for no fucking reason is noted. Assuming you aren’t just mafia as you very probably are in fact town, I am going to have a lot of very cross words for you in postgame.

[Hamilton Brian]

Is there an optimal wagon for celaph and ghug to be on? They should not be on the same one, correct?

[ghug]

could jamie have scanned the person who killed him?

Interestingly, we know that whoever Jamie scanned doesn't have the Oracle unless he scanned his killer or the doctor.

how do we know that

Because Jamie's role wasn't announced when he peeked my tag.

[worcej]

Can you fucking read? I specifically said it’s NOT damning per se and requires an investigation. I went back and clarified that MULTIPLE times after people misinterpreted what I said.

THAT’s the foundation dingleberry.

“WILL do,” you said, as in it is absolutely determinative that I’m going to use you having a vote (WHICH MIGHT NOT EVEN BE THE CASE AS I HAVE REPEATEDLY SAID!) to vote you off and not simply evaluate the several possibilities I’ve already identified for why you might have lost the no vote tag as town.

That’s simply not true and your continued poisoning the well for no fucking reason is noted. Assuming you aren’t just mafia as you very probably are in fact town, I am going to have a lot of very cross words for you in postgame.

You ‘will do’ and investigation and I wouldn’t be shocked if you used my positions of defending snowbyz against me (again) in an effort to accuse me as scum.

It’s fine - as I stated - If I have a vote, your massive text wall will confirm my suspicions on your open wolfing strategy this game.

[Bonatogether]

Interestingly, we know that whoever Jamie scanned doesn't have the Oracle unless he scanned his killer or the doctor.

how do we know that

Because Jamie's role wasn't announced when he peeked my tag.

???
jimmit couldn't have peeked your tag

im confused