M89: Baldurs Gate Mafia Game Thread

[Jamiet99uk]

Lord Beancomb announced "A DUEL HATH BEEN INITIATED, DILLY DILLY" on page 153.

At that moment in time, before anyone moved their votes, the vote tally was:

Diplomacy&Warfare(6)- DemonRHK, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Lfischl, Worcej, Yoyoyozo
Ghug(3)- Dousing, Flavius, JustAGuyNamedWill
Lfischl(3)- aarodactyl, Col7by, Vecna
Balki(3)- Diplomacy&Warfare, Squigs, Sweetandcool
Dousing(2)- Balki, Ghug
Jamiet99uk(2)- Ezio, Fluminator
Flavius(1)- Bonatogether
Sweetandcool(1)- BunnyGo
Ezio(1)- Foodcoats
Damo666(1)- TheMadMonarch

Note: Damo had his vote on Bonatogether when he died, but since Damo had died, that was no longer counted.

Here it was, Night 2, I already did this homework.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is it possible Sweetandcool was bussing Balki?

Also something to review.

Jamie you're not allowed to change your pfp lol.

p.s. I don't think sweet is scum.

And foodcoats KNOWS that I did this work, because he commented on it immediately.

[foodcoats]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

I did that already, why are you doing it again?

Ghug’s alignment.

I knew the framework was out there somewhere but it was less work to reconstruct it myself than to figure out who had previously posted it.

[Jamiet99uk]

Manual reconstruction of the vote count immediately before the duel. Apologies if I’ve made any errors…

DiplomacyandWarfare (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Foxcastle, Jamiet99uk, Yoyoyozo
Jamiet99uk (2) Fluminator, Ezio
ghug (3) FlaviusAetius, Dousing, JustAGuyNamedWill
lfischl (3) Col7by, Vecna, aarodactyl
damo666 (1) TheMadMonarch
FlaviusAetius (1) bonatogether
Dousing (2) Balki Bartokomous, ghug
Ezio (1) foodcoats
sweetandcool (1) BunnyGo
Diplomacy&Warfare (1) lfischl
Balki (3) Squigs44, DiplomacyandWarfare, sweetandcool

I did that already, why are you doing it again?

Ghug’s alignment.

I knew the framework was out there somewhere but it was less work to reconstruct it myself than to figure out who had previously posted it.

.....how do you know Ghug's alignment?

[foodcoats]

Now that y’all are done yapping about other things and are doing duel VCA, you should just check my ISO because I did the work for you already.

Of interest:
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409490#p409490
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409706#p409706
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409732#p409732
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409757#p409757

Most of my analysis discounted the possibility of the mafia having the Battle Master power. I admittedly overlooked it, and if that’s a dealbreaker for you, that’s okay. But if you care about duel VCA at all, you presumably think the Battle Master is more likely town than mafia (because if the mafia knew in advance that both players were dying today anyway, they wouldn’t have the same incentives to care about the duel). So it should be helpful.

I am looking at pre-duel VCA, for what it is worth.

If the BM is scum, I think it implies Jamie is more likely town.

[foodcoats]

I did that already, why are you doing it again?

Ghug’s alignment.

I knew the framework was out there somewhere but it was less work to reconstruct it myself than to figure out who had previously posted it.

.....how do you know Ghug's alignment?

If the necro is scum, ghug is likely town.
If the necro is town and ghug was scum, necro would likely have claimed.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ghug’s alignment.

I knew the framework was out there somewhere but it was less work to reconstruct it myself than to figure out who had previously posted it.

.....how do you know Ghug's alignment?

If the necro is scum, ghug is likely town.
If the necro is town and ghug was scum, necro would likely have claimed.

You can't be certain, though. You're making a reasonable assumption, but let's be clear that that's what you are doing.

I suppose it was useful to re-do it for Squigs' alignment although that doesn't appear to tell us very much.

[foodcoats]

.....how do you know Ghug's alignment?

If the necro is scum, ghug is likely town.
If the necro is town and ghug was scum, necro would likely have claimed.

You can't be certain, though. You're making a reasonable assumption, but let's be clear that that's what you are doing.

I suppose it was useful to re-do it for Squigs' alignment although that doesn't appear to tell us very much.

The possibility of the Arcane Trickster role throws all flips into doubt, but it would be unreasonable for town to ignore all flips.

I think it is highly reasonable and beneficial to town to assume ghug is town unless other information comes out.

[Vecna]

it would be hilarious if flavius was trickstered and ive been salty all this time for no reason and the entire god qt is mocking me

[Vecna]

If the necro is scum, ghug is likely town.
If the necro is town and ghug was scum, necro would likely have claimed.

You can't be certain, though. You're making a reasonable assumption, but let's be clear that that's what you are doing.

I suppose it was useful to re-do it for Squigs' alignment although that doesn't appear to tell us very much.

The possibility of the Arcane Trickster role throws all flips into doubt, but it would be unreasonable for town to ignore all flips.

I think it is highly reasonable and beneficial to town to assume ghug is town unless other information comes out.

arcane trickster was only usefull on the night that they tadpoled right? else it just reverses thr nk, which noone will be fooled by

[aarodactyl]

I’m in the office now and have a fairly light day planned so I’m hoping to catch up on the last day or so of posts. However it looks like I have a 1:30-2pm meeting on my schedule and 2pm is eod in my time zone so I won’t be around for it. Webdip is also banned by our work firewall for some reason so I’ll be on mobile so I’ll be keeping my posts short and not well formatted.

[Bonatogether]

The setup implies there are only 3 Mafia with special abilities ##CALL GM can we get a ruling on this?

The setup specifications were that town has 5 PR, Mafia has 3 PR. Mafia also has 2 goons for a total of five mafia, with a tadpole in play, they can reach 6 members in this setup max.

Okay thanks Brainbomb.

So Yoyo was correct, but I'm not sure I know how he knew this, as it isn't in the Google doc with all the roles, and it's not stated on Page 1 of the thread when the GM opened the game...

even i knew this as a non-setup reader

[Ezio]

Now that y’all are done yapping about other things and are doing duel VCA, you should just check my ISO because I did the work for you already.

Of interest:
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409490#p409490
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409706#p409706
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409732#p409732
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409757#p409757

Most of my analysis discounted the possibility of the mafia having the Battle Master power. I admittedly overlooked it, and if that’s a dealbreaker for you, that’s okay. But if you care about duel VCA at all, you presumably think the Battle Master is more likely town than mafia (because if the mafia knew in advance that both players were dying today anyway, they wouldn’t have the same incentives to care about the duel). So it should be helpful.

Do you think the battlemaster is town at this point? Is your analysis relevant?

[Yoyoyozo]

My instinct tells me Colby and Aero have opposing alignments.

On its face value, I think I am overthinking on this point. It’s still ##VOTE sweet

[President Eden]

Now that y’all are done yapping about other things and are doing duel VCA, you should just check my ISO because I did the work for you already.

Of interest:
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409490#p409490
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409706#p409706
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409732#p409732
https://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=409757#p409757

Most of my analysis discounted the possibility of the mafia having the Battle Master power. I admittedly overlooked it, and if that’s a dealbreaker for you, that’s okay. But if you care about duel VCA at all, you presumably think the Battle Master is more likely town than mafia (because if the mafia knew in advance that both players were dying today anyway, they wouldn’t have the same incentives to care about the duel). So it should be helpful.

Do you think the battlemaster is town at this point? Is your analysis relevant?

I do. I believe the mafia Battle Master would have been used on day 1, given how many townies were up for grabs at T-30mins d1. Fluminator is the only unknown in the at-risk group for d1, and it wouldn’t have been difficult for mafia to manipulate the wagons to keep him out of second if he is mafia.

And I definitely don’t think they would use it to secure a double kill on lfischl and D&W. True, it would be two town kills, which is the goal. But it was already clear that both would be viable miskill targets. If they didn’t fire it off day 1, they obviously want to be somewhat discerning in who they hit. In that case they wouldn’t try to get lfischl.

Meanwhile, a town Battle Master would be pretty eager to flip an inactive like lfischl on a day where D&W looked to be a runaway kill.

The current baseline random chance for BM to be town is 57%. The evidence, to me, is more suggestive than random that BM is town. So I’m pretty confident that BM is town, my analysis holds, and we should kill Fox today.

[foodcoats]

You can't be certain, though. You're making a reasonable assumption, but let's be clear that that's what you are doing.

I suppose it was useful to re-do it for Squigs' alignment although that doesn't appear to tell us very much.

The possibility of the Arcane Trickster role throws all flips into doubt, but it would be unreasonable for town to ignore all flips.

I think it is highly reasonable and beneficial to town to assume ghug is town unless other information comes out.

arcane trickster was only usefull on the night that they tadpoled right? else it just reverses thr nk, which noone will be fooled by

I did not catch brain’s earlier clarification. Thank you!

[sweetandcool]

why didnt you vote flum eod3 sweet? there was a big wagon there.

im still so salty about that flav flip.

Between Fox, Flav, Flume, and later Food, I was really spoiled for choice. Flum was the only one that I wasn't heavily scumreading at that point. I would have been okay flipping him but it would have been disappointing compared to others.

In hindsight, I do regret getting caught up in a wave of paranoia over Flav. I wish we flipped Fox or Food.

[foodcoats]

why didnt you vote flum eod3 sweet? there was a big wagon there.

im still so salty about that flav flip.

Between Fox, Flav, Flume, and later Food, I was really spoiled for choice. Flum was the only one that I wasn't heavily scumreading at that point. I would have been okay flipping him but it would have been disappointing compared to others.

In hindsight, I do regret getting caught up in a wave of paranoia over Flav. I wish we flipped Fox or Food.

I don’t understand. You voted for me, not Flav. What do you mean about being paranoid of Flav?

[sweetandcool]

Yeah, I assume Food is just doing brainbomb's Mafia QT for him.

The Knowledge power is pretty much useless unless a PR dies (like a detective) and you want to clearly communicate their scans.

Otherwise, useless. So at best Food was fishing for a tadpole, since that power is vaguely useful for Town, and a bit better for Mafia if we trust the PR. Of course, we do not trust Food, soooooo.

You wanna claim Food? Or divest?

Why would I have been fishing for a tadpole?

Because you wanted to be Mafia? Idk, why does anyone?

I was half asleep when I wrote that. Not a completely logical post but it had some good points.

What's your answer?

[sweetandcool]

Who townreads JustWill, and why?

I'm not sure anyone particularly townreads him.

What is your read of Just, sweet? It’s not clear if you are saying here you think he is scum or if you think he is town but he is generally scumread.

Null.

I think this was an accurate late night statement.

Not Townread does not imply scumread.