MINI MAFIA III - NEWBIE GAME - GAME THREAD

[sheepsaysmeep]

Keep this in mind:

yavu, bancroft are scumleans

worcej is null

^Final votes + this post, I believe sheep and Worcej are scums.
Everybody can be wrong but he is also giving two innocent (assumed I am town) names as scumleans. Everyone may be wrong but this is so suspect.
##vote sheepsaysmeep

WHATAREYOUDOING VOTING ALREADY

[sheepsaysmeep]

##VOTE yavuzovic i dont have another choice anyway

[sheepsaysmeep]

Keep this in mind:

yavu, bancroft are scumleans

worcej is null

^Final votes + this post, I believe sheep and Worcej are scums.
Everybody can be wrong but he is also giving two innocent (assumed I am town) names as scumleans. Everyone may be wrong but this is so suspect.
##vote sheepsaysmeep

WHATAREYOUDOING VOTING ALREADY

fypov having two wrong scumleans at the beginnning of the game has to be scum ok

[worcej]

So, somewhat late, but yes I am not claiming doc because I am a VT. I never took phil to be the doctor, and since we're @ MYLO with no counter claim (unless it's sheep and he's just doing it to throw the game) I'll have to take phil at his word and confirm him as town.

I stand by the fact I was not PR hunting with my leans, only expressing my opinions on who it could be and why I was leaning towards xy4 instead of Bancroft. As it turned out, both were VT so the scum lean I had on xy4 was wrong while my town lean for Bancroft was right. Collectively, we've missed pretty

So, stealing the combo of scum that was listed by DrCJG and based off my reads from the past day, I number my possibilities of scum in this order - the top one being my strongest opinion and the bottom my lowest probability:

• Sheep/Yav
• DrCJG/Sheep
• DrCJG/Yav

My reasoning for this list has been that sheep's actions and activity has been spotty, confrontational, and honestly difficult to read. I was assuming he was trying to hide/lurk due to either being a PR or scum. Based on phil's claim and no counter, that removes the PR which leads me to scum.

This post isn't a big block of words like most of mine, but again going with my reads so far - I have to ##vote sheep and pray I don't mess up like Snowy did in the last game...

[worcej]

**Collectively, we've missed pretty much consistently on this game.

^Finished my not-finished sentence in my post there.

[worcej]

I also don't have good reads on yavu and DrCJG - but one of them is definitely the other scum, that is why I put my eggs in the sheep basket.

[yavuzovic]

DrC: I always thought DrCJG is town, I don't know why, maybe his posting style caused this. But this does eliminate this because this is totally on my impressions.

worcej: I've nothing to accuse you, but I also have nothing to townread you. You voted sheepsaysmeep and this is towny though. I see you didn't end a day on each other's wagons. I hope you will not change you vote because this would cause me to think sheep/worcej is more likely scum team.

phil:

Yav's roleblock claim is interesting. You see, it implies that the mafia think yavuzovic is in fact the doctor. The doctor's only ability is to stop a NK (and confirm a town in the process) by targeting them for it. So, in this case, the mafia presumably expect yavuzovic to try to save RagingIke from the NK, and want to stop this. That seems, uh, unlikely. I would expect them to drop a roleblock on RagingIke to stop a selfsave, and then probably claim roleblock the next day. This doesn't look great for yavuzovic, but this argument is pretty WIFOM.

I say what happened, maybe they did this to accuse me.
About phil, he was reading logically but not too active, which makes his doc-claim stronger. I believe him, and he is the last person I would vote.

[phil_a_s]

I'm afraid I haven't had time to reread the whole thread, real life intruded on me. As such, my reads are still significantly derived from previous reads.

I really can't see how DrCJG could be scum. DrCJG's behavior is extremely towny, and none of the scumteams including him make any sense to me.

I don't think sheep and yavuz are scum together. I had a suspicion the early tension between them was manufactured, but I don't really see how sheep and yavuz decide, on LYLO, to bus each other that hard, and that singlemindedly.

That leaves sheep/worcej and yavuz/worcej. In this situation, worcej has the unfortunate position of being the common factor. Worcej has been scummy in his own right.

My guess is that the scumteam is yavuz/worcej. I will outline my reasoning.
On N1, teacher2 is attacked for being obv!town, possibly for fingering worcej.
The first day on which both have been active is D2. On D2, Bancroft is run up with three votes, DrCJG has a vote on worcej. Yavuz votes xy4, rescinds the vote after pushback, then worcej votes xy4, I put worcej at two votes, followed by this

I'm still trying to decide who to vote. People say (People means phil) Worcej is hunting in public. I didn't see that but they may be right. Anyway I'll follow teacher:
##vote BancroftS I believe teacher is town, his style is quite similar with his last game.

from yavuz. My interpretation of this is that yavuz attempted to make the D2 wagons both town, failed, so decided to blatantly follow teacher2 onto Bancroft and put him at 4 votes out of 8, meaning that unless someone changed their vote, no-one but Bancroft could be lynched, and worcej still had his vote off-wagon, so he could save himself in a pinch.
Sheep was also on the Bancroft wagon, but sheep started that wagon, which is not a very scummy position, and everyone else on the wagon is confirmed town.

##vote worcej for now, pending wagon resolution, which I will set for myself at 6 hours before EoD or so.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 4.1

Sheepsaysmeep (2) - Yavuzovic, Worcej
Yavuzovic (1) - Sheepsaysmeep
Worcej (1) - Phil_a_s

Currently SHEEPSAYSMEEP is set to be lynched.

Day ends in 10 hours and 10 minutes.

[yavuzovic]

phil is right but I don't understand - if mafiateam is sheep/worcej why did worcej vote for sheep. I think he will change his vote on me (or anyone else) or he is bussing sheep so he can throw the guilt on me next day. I don't know who did phil saved yesterday (AND I DON'T SUGGEST HIM TO EXPOSE THIS - HE CAN STILL SAVE ONE TOWN IF HE USES THIS GOOD) but one town will be dead tomorrow.
Okay, I'm really confused I can say only that I believe worcej will change his vote.

Likeliest:
sheep/worcej 70% - This must be the scumteam.
sheep/CJG 40% -this also explains why worcej vote for sheep
worcej/DrCJG %30 - given sheep's scumslips it's not so possible
sheep/phil 20% - I would expect the real doc to expose himself in this scenario - that's why I think this scenario is not so possible, but this also explains why phil declared me and worcej are scums.
worcej/phil 5% - I don't see any reason for that, especially after phil voted to worcej.
phil/CJG 0% - as impossible as any scenario which says I'm mafia.

[yavuzovic]

WHATAREYOUDOING VOTING ALREADY

I think we can change our votes, even at lylo.
##Call Gm: Can we change our votes in lylo?

[phil_a_s]

I've already said who I saved. I saved DrCJG. There is no harm in saying this. The mafia know I'm the doctor. They have a factional roleblock. I am the only PR.

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

You can change your vote at any time before the phase ends, of course.

[DrCJG]

I waited to post my analysis because I wanted to see where Sheep/Yav/Worcej ended up:

Yav voted Sheep
Sheep voted Yav
Worcej voted Sheep

@ Phil - I actually disagree with your opinion of the Sheep/Yav bus... I thought their initial interaction seemed too over the top to be manufactured... but bussing at LYLO makes perfect sense... the scum team can't afford to lose a player and be linked to their scummate... busing helps distance them and if another wagon forms then they jump on it.

I will say in my reread this stood out to me:

i'd rather you vote even a weak scumread rather than someone just because theyre a low poster unless you scumread them for low posting

I would generally (and at the time) read this as pretty towny... but if Yavu is scum, this looks a lot like deflection off of marneus (Yavu) by Sheep.

Therefore I still think Sheep/Yav is a real possibility. Furthermore, I tend to think scum want to start different wagons on lylo and are unlikely to jump to the same wagon... so the voting so far makes me lean against a Yav/Worcej and towards either Sheep/Yav or Sheep/Worcej. The common factor being Sheep.

Still... the RB claims keep tripping me up... if Sheep/Yav are a scum team why switch the fake RB claim from Sheep to Yav... @Phil/Yav - Do you see anything in Yav's press that could have made a Sheep/Worcej team think he was the doctor?

##Vote Sheep

Further Analysis:

• Sheep/Worcej -
  • Sheep's decline in activity may be proportional to Worcej's increase in activity. Sheep trying to avoid attention while Worcej trying to avoid being lynched for being a lurking new player.
  • D1 was TvTvT - Sheep lurked off wagon and Worcej refused to move his vote
  • D2 Worcej remained off wagon and able to push Bancroft over the top if he took any real heat... this day still really stands out to me... I felt like you went off the rails with your press and looked terrible, but only Phil and I voted for you... Sheep who had shown irritation from Xy4 PR hunting seemed unphased by Worcej's explanation of who he thought was town.
• Sheep/Yav -
  • Sooo much busing from the get-go. As I said above, I think busing is expected at lylo and they are the only ones still doing it.
  • D1 was TvTvT - Sheep lurked off wagon and encouraged teacher not to vote for low posters.
  • D2 despite their apparent certainty of the other's scumminess they ended up on the same wagon.
  • Sheep has claimed two RBs... the second making no sense given that teacher was killed after having already been saved. Yav claimed the other RB, when I would expect mafia to have NK'd and RB'd the same person
  I haven't looked as hard at Yav/Worcej - but I will take another look now given Phil put it as his most likely.

[Jamiet99uk]

VOTE COUNT 4.2

Sheepsaysmeep (3) - Yavuzovic, Worcej, DrCJG
Yavuzovic (1) - Sheepsaysmeep
Worcej (1) - Phil_a_s

Currently SHEEPSAYSMEEP is set to be lynched.

Day ends in 9 hours and 5 minutes.

[phil_a_s]

I dunno, at LYLO all you need is one mislynch (or even a draw, which we should take great care to avoid) to win automatically. If you bus, you are almost certainly condemning your teammate to death (especially if the bus is mutual, given that makes it likely you two will be the only wagons) and extending the game into another LYLO. While it is pretty hard to dodge suspicion at LYLO, especially if one person is clear and another is widely townread (unless DrCJG is scum, it is guaranteed one of the lynch targets will be scum anyway), I think sheep/yavuz would rather try to lynch worcej now and win, rather than have one of them lynched today, and then tomorrow try to convince me or DrCJG (whichever of us doesn't get killed in this hypothetical) to kill worcej over themselves.

I think the RB claims are too WIFOM to use really. sheep being RB'd the second night makes no sense in a non-WIFOM context, RBing yavuz on a night when they're going after RagingIke pretty much the same thing.

Your argument for sheep/yavuz is pretty good though. I think I was too hasty in dismissing it. Still keeping my vote on worcej for now.

[DrCJG]

I like your point about jumping on Worcej... perhaps a Sheep/Yav scum team would have waited until someone (Phil) voted him then jumped on it...

At the same time if both scum members are on the hot seat... they may figure distancing themselves now is their best bet... indeed if they are the scum team they have been pretty successful at appearing to be opposite alignments and I could absolutely see them thinking they can win by sacrificing one of them.

[phil_a_s]

True. In any case, it is impossible for sheep to be scum without being bussed at this point.

DrCJG, what do you think of the relative probability of yavuz and worcej being the busser?

[yavuzovic]

I'm not bussing. And I'm planning to stay on Sheep's wagon. I don't see any reason to change - he is my scummiest read. Also everybody talked and no one except phil doc-claimed. So I can mark phil as ⚕️ doctor.

[DrCJG]

@ Phil - I am not sure how to accurately assign percentages to the probability of Yav or worcej being the busser....

Worcej has not made as hard of a vote on sheep making it look easier for him to switch off to another wagon... part of me sees this as being hedgey and a scum looking to be opportunistic... part of me sees this as a town who is unsure.... neither has really presented much of a case against Sheep, yet Yav is apparently locked in.

I tend to think Worcej is more likely the busser than Yav... but I cant put a percentage on it...

@ Sheep - i would appreciate your analysis of the scum team.