M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

@ghug this is your requested reminder to read my post

I'd like another in a few hours please.

Read his post.

[Jamiet99uk]

I don’t think we should kill HR today

Reasons for thinking that whyplease?

[Jamiet99uk]

HR is decidedly absent.

[damo666]

There is a very good chance goldfinger is G/F and I’m fully aware that if I’m right I have to die tonight, but that’s fine.

I can’t see scum opting to kill Kgray unless they are confident that GF isn’t going to get killed. I was an advocate of taking myself and goldie off the chopping block yesterday believing that we had better chance of hitting scum from the remaining players. But the G/F is so key to scum that they are willing to reduce the non scanned pool in favour of reducing the scanned pool and maybe increase risk of us hitting the remaining goon, just to protect the G/F.

Also goldie said yesterday he’d have more time to scum hunting today! I fully expected one of us to die last night, but goldie seemed confident he’d survive.

##vote goldie

Maniac there is no way we are killing you or gold today. This is a wasted vote.

[TheFlyingBoat]

@HR where you at buddy?

[damo666]

@HR where you at buddy?

He's in scumchat with Chaqa or Maniac or ghug or Bob

[TheFlyingBoat]

Sure, that is the given justification, but it doesn't grapple with the bigger issue of scum implicitly trying to avoid heavy groupings on wagons and trying to create safe distributions across he major wagons. All three other people on my wagon are conf town. It's possible the wagon is all town, but what are the odds of that?

Luckily for you, I can actually tell you that. It's roughly 100%. I know the feeling of trying to convince everyone that there's a scum on your wagon because town couldn't possibly be that stupid or they were surely pushing for a miskill or whatever. I'm pretty sure my hitrate on that is below 50%.

Interesting argument for D2, but I suppose I can't argue too much with bad vibes, especially when you admit it looks weird.

Fair enough on D3 that's actually reasonably townie.

D4, what changed your mind then? I swear I remember on an earlier day you were really confident Vecna was scum (I want to say D3?) and certainly more confident than you were on HR iirc

What do you mean what changed my mind? HR was not someone I considered D4, and Vecna continued to be a lump of nothing that wasn't getting any scummier. Goldfinger on the other hand just kept getting worse, so that was where I focussed my attention.

Once again wrt to the bold you seem to be missing my thrust. I am used to being closed to being miskilled as town by town. I am not prone to assuming that because someone is on my wagon ipso facto they must be scum or dumb. My point is that on D1, mafia tends to avoid grouping up on the same wagon just for psychological reasons (disregarding games with pre-game scum chat or day chat) and try to spread out across major wagons for various reasons. Outside of avoiding a kill of one of their own, I'd not expect clumps of scum anywhere, and I'd expect scum who have stayed alive this long to have put in some effort into joining relevant wagons and look good.

As for what I mean by change your mind, let's look at how you talked about Vecna:

My last recap post was so useful I feel obliged tondo it again! Here is the last hour of voting (at least, not the boring bits) with my comments.
Kgray shifts from celaph to TFB because TFB was being weird, where she stays for the rest of the day.
Ghug moves off celaph to start a Jamie train.
Goldfinger moves off celaph, where he apparently only was to appease ghug, to me, where he remains while not being very active at eod.
Blamp joins the TFB wagon.
Me and Durga both join ghug on the Jamie train.
Donny votes TFB.
TFB moves to celaph. Ghug ditches his train for celaph. Chaqa moves from TFB to celaph.
Jamie moves to me. For some reason.
Me and Durga both ditch the dead Jamie train, both for TFB.
HR, having been on celaph all day, moves to TFB, for some reason.
Demon and bozo, the final remnants of the Vecna wagon, move to celaph.
Donny moves from TFB to celaph, tying the votes. No reason stated.
Jamie and rdr both ditch me to move to celaph.
Celaph flips scum.

Funnily enough, both me and Durga moved to the same places, almost simultaneously.

The Vecna wagon, at its peak, was composed of Jamie, TFB, demon and bozo. Every single one of them moved to celaph. Everyone who moved off me also moved to celaph.

Which makes me wonder, why? Why was the movement so universally toward celaph? Were scum stacked on the Vecna wagon for bussing but then forced to change plans and bussed celaph instead? I almost feel like scum must have had some involvement to make the late movement so unanimous. I highly doubt all the scum would stack on TFB anyway. I predict there was some significant involvement from scum in celaph's death, primarily in the late movers.

Of course, VCA is not my strong suit, so I'd be interested to hear other people's theories on why the celaph wagon rocketed so fast. Also HR's vote doesn't look great.

Here you strongly assume that Vecna is scum automatically and without reservation. That level of confidence is odd in and of itself at that point in the game, but the real point is that after saying at the beginning of D2 you think he might be a decent wagon if his activity doesn't pick up to viewing him as conf!scum. Surely D3 we'd expect a vote on Vecna. But we never see one

I like ghug as town quite a bit for now. Overall good thoughts and vibes.
Chaqa seems towny due to RB among other things.
HR and durga are, unsurprisingly, also my top scumreads. Who'd have thought?
Donny doesn't exist I swear. I guess maybe townlean because of his response to his wagon D1? If there's an endgame, Donny will probably be around for it at this rate.
I still don't like Jamie, but I think I can cool off on my scumread for his vote yesterday. Still not my favourite.
Vecna still sucks. Yeah sure, he's probably busy, but that doesn't mean he's not scum.
I'm still also not a fan of goldie, and as a camper on me, his vote isn't doing him any favours.
Bona is looking continually worse. His reaction to TFB is pretty bad. They're not both scum one would think, but bona is looking reasonably scummy.
TFB is absolutely relying on his one large post per day that nobody will read to carry his reputation. Not super into him as town, but I think the less likely out of him and bona.
Kgray is pretty good. For now.
Blamp is still pretty good. For now.
Rdr is entirely fine, he's been playing largely how I'd expect, but other than his vote yesterday, he hasn't done much that's very towny.
RHK is another player who is actually not in this game. Very lame, but not very scummy.
Maniac is seeming more like just lazy town the more I look at it.
Damo has some logic so horribly offensive that I almost wanna just put him as town. He hasn't done that much wrong other than tunneling me and being damo, so I'm okay putting him as town.

I think that's everyone.

That being said you seem to have a strong scum read on HR now, primarily because of his vote on me it seems and also you give no credit to him for his VCA (the latter, a decision I agree with fwiw), which as I said fair enough, your HR and Durga switch seems reasonable. Can you explain why you thought gold kept getting worse and worse to you than a guy you seemed comfortable wagoning from D2 onwards, but somehow managed to always find a way to avoid wagoning?

Anyways I don't know why I am up at 4 am. Big regrets.

[BesharamSabi]

VOTE COUNT VERSION 6.03

Hellenic Riot (3) damo666 Jamiet99uk goldfinger0303
Jamiet99uk (1) ghug
BobMcBob (1) TheFlyingBoat
ghug (1) rdrivera2005
Donny Dude (1) Chaqa
goldfinger0303 (1) Maniac

Non-votes:BobMcBob, Donny Dude, Hellenic Riot

HR IS SET TO BEING TURKISH FOR THE REST OF ETERNITY

EOD is in 11 hours and 15 minutes

The cartoon character Popeye was actually based on a real person named Frank "Rocky" Fiegel who was a tough guy who was quite similar to Popeye physically.

[Chaqa]

@Maniac: we aren't voting Gold today. Maybe tomorrow. Move your vote.

@Rivera: if not ghug, who else would you be willing to vote?

[Chaqa]

I saw you lurking, Bob. No thoughts on the massive case TFB is making?

Bit odd.

[BobMcBob]

I had an overly scathing reply to TFB's wall written, but my phone didn't want to poet it so I'll summarise it here. Scum is not as likely as you think to be on every main wagon. I know from experience being a large D1 wagon with no scum on me. And I certainly do not make an effort as scum to spread my vote out from my team.

The Vecna thing was wild theorycrafting for why there were five steaight votes for the same player in two minutes which seemed extreme.

And I have stated too many times my reasons for scumreading goldie to the point where other people are annoyed at it and I don't see any disconnect between me not voting for a scumread because I scumread someone else more. Insert sarcastic comment about being expected to choose the correct player to push.

[BobMcBob]

It takes so much more of a time commitment to look over any player's game now, and I have less motivation to do it. Not because it's less useful, just because I lose motivation over the course of the game. I kinda wanna just vote goldfinger.

I feel like damo is being given too much of a free pass, but also he has seemed relatively towny for damo. Jamie still isn't my favourite but he's fine. I don't even know what the case on ghug is and I don't care enough to figure it out when I probably will just disagree with it anyway. And there's so much stuff he's said. I had a reason for switching to a townread of HR at some point, but that has been lost to time. Voting I think, but not strongly? I've just been lazily lumping Chaqa and TFB and rdr as town and I still don't see a reason not to. I still don't think Maniac is scum.

##Vote Jamie or something idk

[BobMcBob]

I need sleep

[Chaqa]

I did a deep dive on the D1 and D2 wagons, didn't type anything up since it was just for me, but Bob probably is town based on it.

I still think HR is probably town.

I don't like the voters on the HR wagon anyway, so I wouldn't join it.

I think I'm going to wind up voting for Jamie when it's all said and done if Donny or Damo doesn't happen.

[Chaqa]

I wonder if Donny or HR will ever vote

[Jamiet99uk]

Jamie still isn't my favourite but he's fine.

##Vote Jamie or something idk

If I'm fine, why are you voting for me?

[Jamiet99uk]

I did a deep dive on the D1 and D2 wagons, didn't type anything up since it was just for me, but Bob probably is town based on it.

I still think HR is probably town.

I don't like the voters on the HR wagon anyway, so I wouldn't join it.

I think I'm going to wind up voting for Jamie when it's all said and done if Donny or Damo doesn't happen.

I'm town.

[Chaqa]

I did a deep dive on the D1 and D2 wagons, didn't type anything up since it was just for me, but Bob probably is town based on it.

I still think HR is probably town.

I don't like the voters on the HR wagon anyway, so I wouldn't join it.

I think I'm going to wind up voting for Jamie when it's all said and done if Donny or Damo doesn't happen.

I'm town.

@Flum: is this a trust tell?

[ghug]

I did a deep dive on the D1 and D2 wagons, didn't type anything up since it was just for me, but Bob probably is town based on it.

I still think HR is probably town.

I don't like the voters on the HR wagon anyway, so I wouldn't join it.

I think I'm going to wind up voting for Jamie when it's all said and done if Donny or Damo doesn't happen.

I'm town.

Oh damn, why didn't you just say so earlier?

[Jamiet99uk]

Does anyone know if Hellenic Riot is okay?

He hasn't posted in the game thread for over two real-life days.