MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

@PresEden I think you're going too many "levels" deep in your analysis.

Can you clarify what you mean here?

You're suggesting in your theory that scum purposefully played badly so that we wouldn't be forced to play well and catch them. Look, this group is not going to do well with Hamilton claiming cop.

N3: they kill rdr. Bunny and Pres say: "damn, scum decided to outguess the doctor and not go for the cop"
N4: they hold the kill. Hamilton claims he was saved. Bunny and Pres say: "damn...nice job doctor!"
N5: they kill
N6: they kill

by now they've gone deep. Yes, Hamilton won't make it to the end, but the scum will get reaction tests to suss out the doctor, the cop, and keep us from getting lots of intel from scum flips.


But your theory is: nah man, it's too straightforward. You gotta go next level! Cut him loose, because town will always get that right. So scum are going to make some weaker psychological bussing plays for less definitive gains.

[BunnyGo]

My current thinking:

Interesting way of a reads list. I like the "not to be over-read" disclaimer.

A different tonal.

[BunnyGo]

Don't do that. That's how you guys lost last game.

I agree. Worst case is that medic saved HB last night and we go down to 15 with 3 scum. And then we’re allowed 5 mistakes on DKs if our medic always misses. (Am I doing the calculation right there? I always mess this up for some reason) that doesn’t seem unlikely based on last game

Hopefully Damo checks in; they seem to be the numbers person.

And again.

So far with N2 and D3 my "tonal" assessment is: antagonistic with celaph and deferential to damo.

[BunnyGo]

N3 was just sort of laid back. "How long is this night?" and talking about Maine and beer with me. And "I miss Donny". Nothing tonally out of the ordinary.

[Donny Dude]

Actually nm, I read his iso ##Unvote

I think we should kill HB or HR tbh

Why?

You're awkwardly talking too much about how you have notes again, when that was the reason you were townread by people last game. It feels forced.

To be brutally honest I don't really have any real reason to scumread HR. I'm kind of just trolling him.

Weird take from flum on hb. Scummates?
Also emc does not mention him day 2 at all which is what I am looking at right now to see if anyone tr emc. The caveat being people who are alive right now.

[Donny Dude]

Bozo only mention is one asking about going back to worcej at eod.

[Fluminator]

The people forcing HB to claim look pretty good in hindsight. It removed HB's ability to fakeclaim cop.

[BunnyGo]

The people forcing HB to claim look pretty good in hindsight. It removed HB's ability to fakeclaim cop.

Why couldn't he fakeclaim cop?

[Donny Dude]

Nothing from bona either.
No one I can tell on d2 who is with us now outright townread hb unless I missed it.

[Donny Dude]

Why?

You're awkwardly talking too much about how you have notes again, when that was the reason you were townread by people last game. It feels forced.

To be brutally honest I don't really have any real reason to scumread HR. I'm kind of just trolling him.

This is not good post because one is trolling and the other one is not really true when I looked it up. And that being the sole reason feels weak from flum.
His progression on HB goes from scumread to something unclear to tunnelling hb to scumreading HB for D2. I can't tell if this is legitamite or not because even the tunnel post says lets tunnel HB so both of flums kill options are one is trolling and the other is what I have described.

Saw the flum notes and I thought what fucking notes again. This is a really weird take because as I recall Hb made no reference to notes. Maybe a scumslip by flum?
Can someone go through hb and flum through d2 and see if hb uses notes?

[Fluminator]

The people forcing HB to claim look pretty good in hindsight. It removed HB's ability to fakeclaim cop.

Why couldn't he fakeclaim cop?

Because he was forced into claiming earlier in the day already. If he wasn't, he certainly would have hardclaimed cop before being killed. (Unless EMC was scum too. Although this game already had Brain fakeclaim cop to kill his partner ghug so maybe he would have at this calibre of play.)

[Fluminator]

You're awkwardly talking too much about how you have notes again, when that was the reason you were townread by people last game. It feels forced.

To be brutally honest I don't really have any real reason to scumread HR. I'm kind of just trolling him.

This is not good post because one is trolling and the other one is not really true when I looked it up. And that being the sole reason feels weak from flum.
His progression on HB goes from scumread to something unclear to tunnelling hb to scumreading HB for D2. I can't tell if this is legitamite or not because even the tunnel post says lets tunnel HB so both of flums kill options are one is trolling and the other is what I have described.

Saw the flum notes and I thought what fucking notes again. This is a really weird take because as I recall Hb made no reference to notes. Maybe a scumslip by flum?
Can someone go through hb and flum through d2 and see if hb uses notes?

I'm glad I'm back to people suspecting me because I was right. Much more fun than being suspected for being wrong on things.

[BunnyGo]

The people forcing HB to claim look pretty good in hindsight. It removed HB's ability to fakeclaim cop.

Why couldn't he fakeclaim cop?

Because he was forced into claiming earlier in the day already. If he wasn't, he certainly would have hardclaimed cop before being killed. (Unless EMC was scum too. Although this game already had Brain fakeclaim cop to kill his partner ghug so maybe he would have at this calibre of play.)

Yeah...I just still don't get why scum didn't put together hyposcans for him at EON3. Did they think it was going away? Mine were out with 2 hours to go.

[President Eden]

@PresEden I think you're going too many "levels" deep in your analysis.

Can you clarify what you mean here?

You're suggesting in your theory that scum purposefully played badly so that we wouldn't be forced to play well and catch them. Look, this group is not going to do well with Hamilton claiming cop.

N3: they kill rdr. Bunny and Pres say: "damn, scum decided to outguess the doctor and not go for the cop"
N4: they hold the kill. Hamilton claims he was saved. Bunny and Pres say: "damn...nice job doctor!"
N5: they kill
N6: they kill

by now they've gone deep. Yes, Hamilton won't make it to the end, but the scum will get reaction tests to suss out the doctor, the cop, and keep us from getting lots of intel from scum flips.


But your theory is: nah man, it's too straightforward. You gotta go next level! Cut him loose, because town will always get that right. So scum are going to make some weaker psychological bussing plays for less definitive gains.

I think the moment we all collectively decided that a mafia was actually the Cop, we accidentally put that mafia on a timer. How much time varies, but probably 2-3 days, depending on what level we think the Doc & mafia played on, and how deep the mafia was willing to go on propping Brian up as a Cop. Regardless, a timer, and D4 is a realistic window where time would run out--the lower end of that window, but within that window.

Right as the second day rolled over where the mafia made it obvious that they didn't think Brian was the Cop, Brian starts inexplicably flubbing his fake Cop play and flubbing it real bad, to the point where we all realized pretty early in D4 that this guy couldn't be the real Cop, and we had to decide whether we believed that he got himself roped into this thing as VT.

If the mafia know Brian is on a timer and aren't sure exactly when town is going to decide that time is up, it might behoove them to take the initiative and decide what day Brian goes down. That makes the game situation more static and predictable, so it's easier for them to set the narrative they want.


The only other thing that makes sense to me is that they left it in our hands to decide when Brian dies, maybe voted him maybe didn't, but made sure not to tie themselves to him in any way.

I realize those two theories are contradicting, but I'm not sure which one makes more sense yet. I think the first one is what I would have done, out of those two, but I don't know that the mafia would agree.

[BunnyGo]

Hi everyone; ya'll are busy through the evening hours. Aaro...pretty strong post. In my notes I am writing, I've got you almost jumping from tier 2 to tier 1.

Allow me the privilege of catching up while also presuming to do some work (back to it after the holidays).

Here's the one time Hamilton mentions notes.

[Donny Dude]

Hi everyone; ya'll are busy through the evening hours. Aaro...pretty strong post. In my notes I am writing, I've got you almost jumping from tier 2 to tier 1.

Allow me the privilege of catching up while also presuming to do some work (back to it after the holidays).

Here's the one time Hamilton mentions notes.

K, thanks.
Do you think it is odd then about flum's quote in relation to the notes?

[BunnyGo]

Can you clarify what you mean here?

You're suggesting in your theory that scum purposefully played badly so that we wouldn't be forced to play well and catch them. Look, this group is not going to do well with Hamilton claiming cop.

N3: they kill rdr. Bunny and Pres say: "damn, scum decided to outguess the doctor and not go for the cop"
N4: they hold the kill. Hamilton claims he was saved. Bunny and Pres say: "damn...nice job doctor!"
N5: they kill
N6: they kill

by now they've gone deep. Yes, Hamilton won't make it to the end, but the scum will get reaction tests to suss out the doctor, the cop, and keep us from getting lots of intel from scum flips.


But your theory is: nah man, it's too straightforward. You gotta go next level! Cut him loose, because town will always get that right. So scum are going to make some weaker psychological bussing plays for less definitive gains.

I think the moment we all collectively decided that a mafia was actually the Cop, we accidentally put that mafia on a timer. How much time varies, but probably 2-3 days, depending on what level we think the Doc & mafia played on, and how deep the mafia was willing to go on propping Brian up as a Cop. Regardless, a timer, and D4 is a realistic window where time would run out--the lower end of that window, but within that window.

Right as the second day rolled over where the mafia made it obvious that they didn't think Brian was the Cop, Brian starts inexplicably flubbing his fake Cop play and flubbing it real bad, to the point where we all realized pretty early in D4 that this guy couldn't be the real Cop, and we had to decide whether we believed that he got himself roped into this thing as VT.

If the mafia know Brian is on a timer and aren't sure exactly when town is going to decide that time is up, it might behoove them to take the initiative and decide what day Brian goes down. That makes the game situation more static and predictable, so it's easier for them to set the narrative they want.


The only other thing that makes sense to me is that they left it in our hands to decide when Brian dies, maybe voted him maybe didn't, but made sure not to tie themselves to him in any way.

I realize those two theories are contradicting, but I'm not sure which one makes more sense yet. I think the first one is what I would have done, out of those two, but I don't know that the mafia would agree.

So, I'd just like to suggest: you're ascribing VERY high level analysis by the mafia team. They'd need to be able to predict this out days, and anticipate the play.

I'm suggestion that most quality mafia teams just sit back and don't screw up and force town to get things right.

I think you should be wary ascribing high level play to the scum team here as opposed to the more obvious choice: The team is AWOL and/or inexperienced. This will lead to a very different hunt than your hypothesis.

[Fluminator]

That was like one of his first posts since I subbed in so at the time it was a high percentage lmao.

Anyway, I'm really sure this game is close to an auto. Even if it isn't there's got to be a ton of townie looking people.
It's different from last time where our scum kills were two cops scan, a vig kill, and a mod kill.
Having 3 actual mafia daykills in a row is insanely good, so good job lol.

[BunnyGo]

Hi everyone; ya'll are busy through the evening hours. Aaro...pretty strong post. In my notes I am writing, I've got you almost jumping from tier 2 to tier 1.

Allow me the privilege of catching up while also presuming to do some work (back to it after the holidays).

Here's the one time Hamilton mentions notes.

K, thanks.
Do you think it is odd then about flum's quote in relation to the notes?

Nah, it was awkward af, and Flum mentions it just a couple hours later.

[Donny Dude]

Here's the one time Hamilton mentions notes.

K, thanks.
Do you think it is odd then about flum's quote in relation to the notes?

Nah, it was awkward af, and Flum mentions it just a couple hours later.

K.