Re: M80 Game Thread
Posted: Wed May 24, 2023 8:40 pm
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there was a game where I voted for myself when I was town at a later stage to see how people react, since they said I suddenly acted weird. Most of the people saying that didn't vote me (yet kept pointing out how strange and weird I was behaving), only one did; I concluded from that that the two people only talking about but not following up to vote me were mafia (and that was correct with foxcastle and kitsune) and the one voting for me was town; sadly, after that day was the last day and people didn't believe me that those two were mafia so we still lost.
dousing comes to mind, but I guess dousing could be practically paired with everyone, haven't made a big impression.damo666 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:00 pmWe can't really afford a tie can we.ghug wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 7:55 pmThe logical thing to do is dangle it as a possibility so they implicate themselves.damo666 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 7:51 pm@Town
We have to be ultra careful here.
If it is a Jamie/Bunny scumpair (note how quickly Jamie moved off Bunny) they may try to contrive a tie. I think we may have a SvS situation here. I think we should consolidate on 1 wagon. Don't really mind between the two.
i'd particularly like Haze and Worcej views.
I don't think it's both of them, though.
If it's not both who is Jamie's likeliest partner and who is Bunny's?
by the way, what happened to vote counts, I haven't seen one all day, I think?rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:40 pmJamiet can tie the voting. I think Worcej and Haze should give his thoughts and probably consolidate before too close to EOD.
Ah, so you're fine with him being alive if I'm dead?rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:38 pmNo, but he is incapable to have an objective look at you. I am agreeing with Damo you should flip before KILO, because if you are scum the game will be over as Sweet will never reconsider.ghug wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:28 pmHas sweet's day really been so bad that he has to die now?rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:14 pm
We have 3 miskills before KILO. I don't think both Ghug and Sweet should be alive at kilo, but this is just my feeling.
The bad thing is we have 3 PRs so NKs won't help us much.
I think it's kind of 50/50. I think I would consider holstering ninja, just because pyxxy is unlikely target and the probability of a successful track N1 is low.Kakarroto wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:39 pmhmm, regarding the bolded part, if they let worcej alone due to high probability of being watched, would they have used the ninja ability to remove pyxxy? Maybe I'm wrong with my assumptions they would use ninja over roleblock. Then again, if they thought pyxxy was very widely townread, they could've thought that not worcej could be watched but pyxxy instead to try to outguess, so maybe they wanted to absolutely be sue not to get caught by visiting pyxxy.sweetandcool wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 4:03 amI know worcej is a PR. I have strong reason to believe either President Eden or brainbomb is Quartermaster.
I look through the mech page. I would like to kill an outed PR, worcej, but I note that town has the following powers: Priest has Doctor, Navigator has Jail and Commute, Captain has watch.
Because worcej is outed, I know they are a likely target for these actions. If I were to strongman worcej, then I don't have to worry about Doctor, Jail. Commute will save worcej, but my power will be refunded, so I shouldn't be very bothered by that possibility. My worst fear is that the Captain will watch worcej, causing one member of team Mafia to be exposed. The only way to defeat the Watch power is to ninja worcej, but that gets negated by Jail or Doctor. I could drive a kill onto worcej, but then the watcher will see the kill and after the result is revealed will even know I used the drive ability as well as exposing a team Mafia member. Drive is also wasted on jail targets.
Since worcej is likely to be watched, and probably even be the target of one or more saving actions, targeting them seems unpalatable. Not targeting them means that any actions that Town throw at worcej will be wasted, and it seems quite likely that will happen, how juicy.
Between President Eden and brainbomb, there is a likely Quartermaster. Since it's easier to make a fake claim rather than shut up about a CC, it seems more likely that brainbomb is Quartermaster*. Because we are unsure who the Quartermaster is, we will jail brain, unless Town gives it away before end of night. We are comfortable with jailing brain because jail supercedes the watch power, which is the only power to fear here, plus worcej is the likely jail target.
What other powers do we have to generally fear from town? Informant, cop and track. RB could be annoying but it likely won't give Town much information if successful. We hope jailing brain takes care of Informant for the night. We can't defend against cop and just have to hope they miss or we get lucky and kill the Navigator, whoever that is (33% chance worcej is, but we're not targeting them because it's too risky). We can mitigate track by only using jail and the factional kill (or ninja kill to really mitigate it.
Probability we are caught by informant, assuming the power is used (do factional kills get a PM? I am assuming no here): 0% actually. So is jailing Brain logical?
Probability we are caught by cop, assuming power use and brain not cop: 4/14* or 2/7 or .2856 or 28.56%.
Probability of caught by track, same assumptions: 2/14 or 1/7 or .1428 or 14.28%
[All math done in head, I am smart Mafia and enjoy flexing]
And even with track, it's a 7.14% chance we outright get outted.
If we are worried we can ninja, making a 7.14% chance of getting tracked and a 0% chance of being outted outright.
So, not feeling great about the cop, but there's nothing we can really do unless we want to risk targeting worcej and hope that worcej is Navigator. We could jail worcej, but that would actually just increase his chances of a successful scan on N2, if he were even the navigator in the first place.
Now, who to kill? [I haven't played Mafia before, so I'm not going to speculate on why a pyxxy kill specifically, there were other fine targets as well, I am sure].
As long as the kill is likely to be safe, we are happy [might be more than that, but probably the priority].
We are also going to be happy to see Town use their best powers when their chances of success are lowest and when we are not targeting worcej. If all goes well, we will be able to really mess Town up with all of our saved abilities.
We will also shorten day because nobody can catch us doing that, and it will make things tougher for town.
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END OF THOUGHT EXPERIMENT
Do you all really think this thought process is impossible for team Mafia? It's not even a cut and dried example of poor play. It is reasonable.
Hmm. What do you think?
Yes, I think he is most likely town then you.ghug wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:43 pmAh, so you're fine with him being alive if I'm dead?rdrivera2005 wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:38 pmNo, but he is incapable to have an objective look at you. I am agreeing with Damo you should flip before KILO, because if you are scum the game will be over as Sweet will never reconsider.
thank you. it would be interesting who voted whom (just in case of "voting for the same"-shenanigans), but this helps a lot.sweetandcool wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:54 pmJust in case we don't get one: bunny, jamiet, ghug at 3
Sweetandcool at 2
In order of how I listed it:Kakarroto wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:56 pmthank you. it would be interesting who voted whom (just in case of "voting for the same"-shenanigans), but this helps a lot.sweetandcool wrote: ↑Wed May 24, 2023 8:54 pmJust in case we don't get one: bunny, jamiet, ghug at 3
Sweetandcool at 2