M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Jamiet99uk]

What is the probability that there are at least two scum in the group of Damo, Damo, Damo and Damo?

Using last game as an indication the probability that one damo is scum is 100%. 3/17 players were scum last game to start (there's no recruit this game) and 6/26 were this time. That means that one damo's chances of being scum in this game are closer to 131%. That means the odds for four damos is 524%. Multiply by two damos out of four damos and you get 262% chance that two in that group are scum.

Then success is assured tomorrow as long as we vote in the pool of people called "Damo".

[e.m.c^42]

I can't tell if this is damo taking the piss as some sort of odd PR move or he's just scum feeling caught and trolling.

[Hamilton Brian]

I think in my first game here, where I was scum, I thought I'd throw around some numbers to try to fit in with the cool kids. It probably contributed to me being called out as scum immediately on D1 but made it into the empty QT.

[Hamilton Brian]

I think in my first game here, where I was scum, I thought I'd throw around some numbers to try to fit in with the cool kids. It probably contributed to me being called out as scum immediately on D1 but made it into the empty QT.

Not that it means anything at flipping all with regard to Damo.

[kgray]

What is the probability that there are at least two scum in the group of Damo, Damo, Damo and Damo?

Using last game as an indication the probability that one damo is scum is 100%. 3/17 players were scum last game to start (there's no recruit this game) and 6/26 were this time. That means that one damo's chances of being scum in this game are closer to 131%. That means the odds for four damos is 524%. Multiply by two damos out of four damos and you get 262% chance that two in that group are scum.

Then success is assured tomorrow as long as we vote in the pool of people called "Damo".

I’m convinced, let’s do it.

[kgray]

I can't tell if this is damo taking the piss as some sort of odd PR move or he's just scum feeling caught and trolling.

Why wouldn’t VT!damo be taking the piss?

[Hamilton Brian]

I'm worried there's more to the Flum/Kgray scumread of Damo. What if they're all scum? Not that I've even got half a sense of a read on any of them.

[Hamilton Brian]

Alright; out for the first winter run in snow with one of the doggos. Be back before EON. I'm sure you can all wait.

[Vecna]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

Honestly I might vote you tomorrow just for this.

Your prerogative dependent on 2 things:

i) your survival
ii) my survival

yikes

[worcej]

Also I’ve been thinking that damo and worcej are probably not both scum. I really doubt that scum!worcej goes through that to dissuade me of my scumread of town!damo so I think worcej is probably town.

Maybe that is what they want you to think.

Bozo - I want everyone to know I am town because I am town.

[worcej]

that had a green colour -really- fast

Not hard to make a vote count list and add colors to it...

But go ahead and let me know if it was too fast or not.

If you are saying you did not have at least part of that post prepared before the reveal, I find that hard to believe.

What if I didn’t?

I’ve GM’ed enough times to get good at vote count formatting.

[worcej]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum to games in a row is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

The gambler's fallacy, right there.

The joke, explained you have.

[e.m.c^42]

I can't tell if this is damo taking the piss as some sort of odd PR move or he's just scum feeling caught and trolling.

Why wouldn’t VT!damo be taking the piss?

VT!damo hates us all for being fools. Gregarious, wordy fools and he says it with terse aplomb. Here, not so much.

[Vecna]

Also, doubling down on bad math seems pretty scummy to me. However, I don't know damo enough to be solid in this read. Does this seem like something he'd do from previous games?

its -his- gimmick, so its pretty embarrassing regardless that its now showing how little of it he actually understands

[worcej]

kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. HB's brain vote is excusable due to self-preservation but as for the other four....they can't all be town can they?

Tomorrow I think we should contain our votes to these 4 plus Maniac.

I do not believe you really think this is a good idea.

The logic is consistent with town!damo

[Vecna]

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.

It is the same (equivalent) to what I suggested.

It is not the same (equivalent) to our situation (the game).

What I suggested is not the same (equivalent) to our situation.

My 'suggestion' is weaker than the game hence the calcs are conservative.

Challenge: DOES ANYONE ACTUALLY THINK ALL FOUR kgray durga Jamie and durga ARE ALL TOWN?

I mean durga is in there twice, so the chances of all 4 being town is probably 133%

[Vecna]

Also, doubling down on bad math seems pretty scummy to me. However, I don't know damo enough to be solid in this read. Does this seem like something he'd do from previous games?

He does this kind of thing a lot but tbh I’ve never bothered checking his math because usually his baseline assumptions are so arbitrary and/or faulty that whatever the math tells him means nothing. I can see scum!damo intentionally reaching wrong conclusions this way but I think it’s just as likely that town!damo actually believes this stuff. So I think this is NAI from him.

why did it put Kgrays name above my post. what is this witchcraft.

Anyways, this shit bores me now

[Balki Bartokomous]

Re-reading Hamilton Brian --

To me, there is this "look I do town things, I am town" subtext behind so many things that he writes. I see someone trying to act town, as opposed to trying to find scum.

Below are some examples, and the subtext below:

1.

I'm worried there's more to the Flum/Kgray scumread of Damo. What if they're all scum? Not that I've even got half a sense of a read on any of them.

SUBTEXT: I don't know the alignment of these players because I am town.

2.

Oh, does anyone else take notes, write stuff down, related to the game? Anyone have a template they employ? If you have a link, can you send it via PM? I'm trying to streamline the way I track this voluminous material.

Like in the section on brainbomb, I have written null/scumlean in one column.
In the evidence column I have written: claiming to tunnel me, shading me as scum (throwing out a morsel to see if anyone else bites?).

If that keeps up it's going to be a large document by the time...well, let's hope we get lucky and Daykill the 6 scum sequentially.

SUBTEXT: Guys -- I take lots of notes because I am trying to solve the puzzle.

3.

And what part of kgray's post is a scum slip?

Yes, please. I'd like to know as well. I've got my thoughts, but I won't show you mine until you show me yours.

SUBTEXT: I was thinking about that scumslip too because I am town.

4.

If I do get killed, I do hope it reveals all the info a miskill would.

SUBTEXT: Look, guys, I don't care if I die because I'm town and you can learn from it.

This is the first game that I recall playing with Hamilton Brian. It is possible that I am reacting to a NAI writing style as opposed to observing a bad acting performance. For folks who have seen Hamilton Brian play town before, can you make any meta comments that might help me?

[ghug]

Re-reading Hamilton Brian -

[Hi Jamie]

This is the first game that I recall playing with Hamilton Brian. It is possible that I am reacting to a NAI writing style as opposed to observing a bad acting performance. For folks who have seen Hamilton Brian play town before, can you make any meta comments that might help me?

I think the writing style is consistent with past town games. If anything, he seems to be saying things with more conviction.

[Balki Bartokomous]

And this is all in line with the initial post that caught my interest from Hamilton Brian. Credit to Flum for bringing my attention to it:

5.

I've wasted half of my day still trying to decipher Bozo's one post.

SUBTEXT: I am looking hard at this white, foreign language thing because I am town and town works hard to solve puzzles.