M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[bozotheclown]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

This is not equivalent to what you suggested.

[aarodactyl]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

Honestly I might vote you tomorrow just for this.

[Jamiet99uk]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum to games in a row is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

The gambler's fallacy, right there.

[damo666]

The total number of fruit is inconsistent between Process A1 and Process A2, Damo.

Yes, because 2 apples and 1 orange were removed.

[damo666]

Ok damo is town.
The odds of a player being scum to games in a row is just under 25% but we'll use 1/4 as the odds.

To be a scum two games in a row would be 1/4 * 1/4 = 1/16
So the odds of damo being scum this game are 1/16 since he was scum last game.
Those aren't great odds for us.

The two games are independent as you well know. Stop taking the piss.

[ghug]

Damo, how does your math change if HB is also town?

[bozotheclown]

kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. HB's brain vote is excusable due to self-preservation but as for the other four....they can't all be town can they?

Tomorrow I think we should contain our votes to these 4 plus Maniac.

I do not believe you really think this is a good idea.

[damo666]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

This is not equivalent to what you suggested.

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

[Balki Bartokomous]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

You're comparing apples and oranges.

[damo666]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

Honestly I might vote you tomorrow just for this.

Your prerogative dependent on 2 things:

i) your survival
ii) my survival

[aarodactyl]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

[damo666]

Damo, how does your math change if HB is also town?

If we assume HB is town just take an unmarked apple away.

[damo666]

kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. HB's brain vote is excusable due to self-preservation but as for the other four....they can't all be town can they?

Tomorrow I think we should contain our votes to these 4 plus Maniac.

I do not believe you really think this is a good idea.

I'm having enormous amount of fun with it.

[ghug]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

You should mention Monty Hall to trigger your friend Bunny.

[ghug]

Damo, how does your math change if HB is also town?

If we assume HB is town just take an unmarked apple away.

Yeah you're full of it.

[damo666]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

You're comparing apples and oranges.

hee hee

blind apples and sighted oranges actually

[Maniac]

I've done the maths. Everyone is either scum or town, so basically it's 50:50.

[aarodactyl]

@damo

As a serious reply, there's a lot wrong with your math. I think engaging with it takes a lot away from serious discussion about the game. However, I can't resist, and also you seem to be doubling down on it.

Your example with the fruits isn't the same as what's going on because you're starting with marked apples. The people in question only got "marked" by you because of their actions. So it's a different situation. If it's unclear what I mean by this, I can get into it.

I also take a lot of fault with the idea that any actions in this game are uniformly random.

You should mention Monty Hall to trigger your friend Bunny.

When did either of us say "friend"? But on a serious note, it's probably good his power is out for this discussion.

[aarodactyl]

Also, doubling down on bad math seems pretty scummy to me. However, I don't know damo enough to be solid in this read. Does this seem like something he'd do from previous games?

[kgray]

There are 20 apples, four of which are labelled 1, 2, 3 and 4 respectively the other 16 unmarked. There are also 6 oranges.

Process A1

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 19 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired with any of the other 19 fruit.

Process B1

Four fruits are selected at random.

Two unmarked apples and one orange is removed.

Process A2

Apple 1 is randomly paired with any of the other 16 fruit. Apples 2, 3 and 4 are similarly paired.

Process B2

Four fruits are selected at random.

What is the probability both processes A1 and A2 produce 4 pairs of apples?

What is the probability both processes B1 and B2 both produce 4 apples?

This is not equivalent to what you suggested.

It is. It's not the same as our situation but that's not the point.

Damo I know you’re a numbers person, but “equivalent” and “the same” are equivalent and the same.